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I'm talking about companies, Institutions, brokerages and MM all collaborating on a deal. Let's say Institution XXX wants to add 5 million shares, if they buy on the open market they drive the price up with their buys. On the other hand if a broker becomes involved and puts them, and perhaps others together and has sufficient total shares desired that would fund say XX millions to the company, they can then approach the company and see if they're interested. Companies often say yes.
The entire offering is pre-sold before it's ever announced. This is something I was told was common by a broker, it's been years, but I still believe it may be the case.
If you ever watch stocks going on, or off the Russell indexes, you'll see the MM's transferring millions of shares after hours with virtually no effect on the share price. In some cases they're going short, and I've seen a short maintained from the time a stock was added to the Russell until it was removed. It may not be legal, but if you watched the short interest it went up by XX millions after it went on the Russell, and it went down essentially the same number of shares when it left the index.
Companies often like to be owned by Institutions, at least certain ones, so if that opportunity presents itself, they'll work to give them an advantage over buying on the open market.
Gary
I wonder if the company is trying to please some Institutional investor before top line data. When Institutions want to purchase, brokerages often assist with offerings like we've seen today. I would suspect that all the shares have already been sold. While the company knows approximately when TLD will be announced, even if they anticipate higher prices, they may want to put the share into the hands of the Institutions that want in.
I've seen similar actions where within weeks they could have used far fewer share for the same funds, but they play along with the brokerages and Institutions and some day they may be in a position to pay them back.
Gary
People here continue to make a mistake about OWCP, it's not a CBD company. CBD may be accepted in every State, but cannabis is composed of hundreds of compounds and while CBD and THC are the most discussed, the others have properties that may have benefits when explored. Our cream has CBD and THC in it, and I'm uncertain what other compounds from cannabis may also be included.
The point is, we're developing products the way biotech's do, scientifically with pre-clinical trials, then clinical trials. THC will give the cream benefits that cannot be found in a CBD cream.
Certainly, where THC is legal, other creams may be available with it, but some may already violate our patent, it will be up to the company to determine that, and pursue those who do. My point is that if we achieve FDA approval for our cream, not only will drug stores everywhere be able to carry it, not just those where cannabis is legal, but when prescribed by Doctors it should be covered by insurance. Try getting insurance to pay for what you use in a cannabis store.
With the news bringing markets down, a down day was very predictable, but we'll never see anything close to the gap some have investors thinking about.
Gary
Sadly I know you're right, many of my friends support him, they don't agree with all he does, but like his policies. I cannot say I don't like some of his ideas, if they had been properly implemented. Cutting corporate taxes would have been fine if the loopholes were removed, but they never got around to doing that. Now some of the biggest profit makers pay zero taxes, while the advantage to the average American is tiny by comparison, and the deficit's rising ever faster. Republican's are only deficit hawks when Democrats control the White House.
Sadly, I don't know that the next American revolution won't be 90% or more of the poorer American's against the wealthiest, many of which would agree with paying more taxes.
Gary
Scotty,
As a long time holder of IMGN I've been extremely frustrated by their failures. However, I still look at where they are, and what I expect for the future, and I remain invested, and even add to my position. I believe the same applies here. It's not where we've been, it's where we're going.
I've not been a long time investors, just roughly a year and a half, and I certainly see the frustrations, but I also see the belief from most investors that the vaccines work. If that is true, the company cannot help but be successful when results are finally released.
Please don't get me wrong, I cannot guarantee the FDA will approve based on the vaccine working, but I believe the least that will occur would be the company partnering it, and the partner paying for whatever the FDA insisted on. Just the partnership would generate success for investors to date, and while an FDA delay would hurt whatever the share price was at that time, I don't believe it would bring it anywhere close to as low as it is today. I'm not predicting such a problem, but over the years I've learned that nothing is guaranteed when it comes to the FDA.
Gary
I believe when Dave Innes sited a part of the earnings report as guidance, and what he sited involved all aspects of actions that were ongoing, I believe he was giving us a frank answer. Very simply, stockholders won't be told when any specific steps are completed, we'll know they're all completed when the release the Top Line Data.
TLD simply cannot occur until a whole list of other things occur, though in most cases they don't deal with a new SAP, but NWBO clearly did. TLD is in fact a summary of what was seen in the trial so it by definition is an announcement, all the other things that happen are not and frankly most companies I follow don't announce them, though I suppose they could.
I don't know when TLD will be announced, but I believe they want to submit an ASCO Abstract, and while they could weasel word something that might be accepted and replace with an update a matter of weeks later, I think they're at least targeting the February 11th requirement for initial submission. If they make it, I would suspect that by the end of this month TLD would be announced to give them a little time to further refine it into an Abstract.
January 1st is the start of the company's new fiscal year, I believe that gives them extra time before both quarterly and annual results are due. I think they can stretch to early March with an extension if necessary. It's also been pointed out that an Annual Meeting should be held sometime in the next month or so. I believe by the time these things occur we'll have a much better feel for what's happening, though it's possible it's not announced until the Annual Meeting.
If I were the company, the last thing I'd want to do is go into the Annual Meeting with nothing positive happening, I'm not saying it can't happen, but clearly it's not a choice anyone would want to choose. If in fact nothing positive is said by then, I'd have to believe it was because some authority, like the FDA, was holding it up. I've yet to see a company criticize the actions of the regulators, they may think it, but they must live with them, and ultimately they approve the products, they're to be treated like G-D's, at least in what's publicly said about them.
Gary
Thanks, I saw it on TV and while it was noted that some Doctors were aboard, I couldn't see mine, but he may have been on the opposite side of what was shown. I'm sure had he wanted to be on the float, he would have been.
I was happy to have had my last appointment with him on December 26th as I knew their holiday's decorations would still be up. They truly do a tremendous job on the Xmas trees there. I don't know if they do it themselves or pay for it, including the float, but like all the rest that they do, they do it right.
Gary
I frankly have no idea where the price might end today, but I agree with those saying it won't be that long before we're looking at $1 or more. We don't know what we don't know. Is there a second, a third, etc patent that could be approved shortly, we don't know. Are they speaking with potential partners for the cream, we don't know.
As someone pointed out, there are many CBD based cream on the market, I tried one for pain and frankly didn't notice a difference. This is not a CBD cream, it includes THC and frankly I don't know what else, nor do I know how concentrated it is. I suspect that it contains more of both CBD and THC than other products on the market, and it's been Phase 1 safety tested. Most importantly, we have a patent, no one else does.
Right no the price is retrenching a bit, that's a good thing from what I've heard from technicians, so that's fine with me. Closing at the HOD would be nice, but certainly not necessary to keep the rally going. I certainly don't know, but suspect we could see a quarter or more this month, I suspect that could make a lot of people here up for the first time in a long time, I know it would me.
Gary
How can you say there is no verifiable information when the company announced the positive patent finding. This has been what's lacking for over a year. The only way a company can function as a biotech utilizing cannabis is if they have patent rights, clinical trials are simply expensive to run if you don't own the intellectual property.
I cannot say if we'll ever get others, though now I'm hopeful we will. Just a few weeks ago no one seemed to have much hope here, now we're as optimistic as when it ran to over $3. I cannot say it will immediately run that high or higher, but it most certainly will if we either gain a partner or have positive trial data reported.
I frankly believe the company is quite positive they'll see efficacy in several skin diseases, anecdotally they may already have seen it, but it must be shown in a clinical trial, and that could start any day. I don't believe the trials will take that long as unlike cancer and other diseases where benefits can't be proven for years, I believe the benefits in skin diseases will be clear in weeks to months, in some cases perhaps in just days. This trial could be concluded before year's end.
Gary
As a new investor in the company I have much to learn about what it's doing, but seeing the name of some old friends here in addition to what I saw on this site, I knew I had to invest, and did take a good sized starter position.
As a patient treated for PH+ ALL I certainly have had my experience with infections at a couple of the best hospitals in the country, as far as I'm concerned, Cedars Sinai and City of Hope. I had catheter infections occur in both places. I hate to say it, but the first infection actually was of benefit to me as at the time I was half way through an aggressive chemo protocol. During the time they were curing the infection I met my Doctor at City of Hope, where I determined I wanted to go for stem cells, and he determined that I didn't have to go through the last half of the chemo course. I went on pill until they were satisfied I was ready for transplant, it saved me months of time in the hospital. Interesting that when the catheter was removed, when they did an ultrasound exam of my arm, you could virtually see where the catheter had been from the infection that had grown on the catheter and was clearly visible.
The second catheter was a Hickman that was required because my stem cells had to be frozen because of me having a cold at the time the donor contributed them. I had hoped the Hickman would be removed shortly after the stem cell transplant, but my Dr. liked the idea of having it in place in the event of complications that could require a catheter to administer the needed treatment. Once it infected it was removed, and all meds since then have been administered through an I.V. that was removed after treatment.
In both cases the infection was determined to be rather rare, and while I'd been in and out of the hospital, their concern was it probably came from inside the hospital. All the more reason that I'd be interested in what PCTL is doing. I also was isolated at the beginning of most hospitalizations because of the possibility of C-Def as I had some diarrhea, it's a side effect of the chemo I'm on, but they had to be certain. It was interesting that the nurses always gowned up to even come into the room, while the Doctor's didn't do anything. The restrictions were always removed after a few days, but it's still the worst side effect of my treatment, but it's tolerable.
I certainly hope the company has the answer as to what's needed to keep medical facilities more germs free, but I doubt if anything can be totally free of such problems as long as people can easily enter and leave the facility, and I'd hate to be in a hospital where no one was permitted to visit.
Gary
Cherry, I'll agree with your assessment with a qualifier, we need at least anecdotal evidence the cream works, or a partner. I know that pre-clinically they know it worked, and I wouldn't be surprised to find it's been tried with people with psoriasis or other skin diseases perhaps in slightly different formulation while it was in development, I've been told this is not uncommon, even for BP to do, but none admit doing it.
Longer term I believe that the cream alone, if approved by the FDA for use by prescription, and covered by insurance, will be a blockbuster product. I.E. it will earn something in excess of $1 billion annually. Let's say OWCP actually earns $.5 billion on sales. Our P/E should be somewhere from 10 to 30 which would give us a market cap of $5 billion to $15 billion. Now if we assumed that our O/S grew substantially, say to half a billion shares, that would give us a share price of at least $10 to perhaps $30.
Of course this is not what we're limited to, sales could certainly go to multiple billions, and of course other patents may be approved and other products gain approval, but we certainly wouldn't be hurting by the cream alone, and of course we could be bought out at any time, hopefully for billions.
Gary
I certainly believe a product either approved by the FDA or purchased by the DOD should bring a market cap of a billion or more. At some point, product revenue will result in P/E ratios that typically run somewhere between 10 and 30, and I expect that earnings annually will run into the billions of dollars. I also believe that with earnings anticipated to grow annually the price will be close to 30 times earnings.
It won't all happen this year, but I believe it won't be long before people will realize this stock is greatly undervalued.
Hope everyone had a Happy New Year's.
Gary
If you don't believe great things can happen just take a look at OWCP, two weeks ago many believed it dead as nothing's happened that's positive in ages. Suddenly a patent for a cannabis cream intended for a variety of skin diseases including psoriasis resulted in a ten banger in under two weeks, and I believe it's just getting started. Once again I believe it should gain a market cap of at least $100 million near term, and substantially greater if Phase 2 results look positive.
In our case, with positive Phase 3 results a market cap of a billion or more is very possible, and as it's determined that other cancers benefit from these vaccines there is no telling how high up may be, over $100 billion certainly isn't out of the picture. Trials that confirmed a multitude of cancers benefit may go to the middle of this decade or beyond, but as evidence build, so will off label use, so revenue will be substantially be bigger each year. If the company isn't bought out for $20 billion or more in the next year or so, it could be worth $50 billion or more a year or two later.
Gary
Right now OWCP has just over a quarter billion shares outstanding. I certainly don't know with certainty that the stock without clinical results in various skin diseases should be worth over a quarter billion dollars, but don't believe it's an unreasonable figure either. One thing I believe is reasonable certain is it ought to have at least a hundred million dollar market cap, bringing the price to around $.40.
Of course it won't take that long before we should hear something about actual use of the cream with people with skin diseases. At first it may be just anecdotal, but the full Phase 2 Trial shouldn't take that long to run. If we get the results and they're good, I certainly could see the company having a market cap over half a billion, perhaps even over a billion. I cannot say how many shares will be outstanding then, but let's say it's up to 300 million.
Of course none of the above takes into consideration what may happen in terms of new partnerships, or gaining new patent approval. It's only been about two weeks since most here were resigned to living with huge losses in the stock, what a difference one patent has made. I'll admit, I was unsure it would ever happen, but I was also one of those who said the stock could explode once they had the intellectual property rights to at least one product, well now we've got that.
Happy New Year's, I believe this will truly be a great year financially for OWCP investors.
Gary
I think you're right on the money. The last few days I've noted slight weakness after the open, so the stock does retrench a bit before advancing, but it's all happening in minutes, not hours, or days. I'm not saying it won't ever correct substantially before advancing, but that might not occur until the market cap is near where it should be, and I believe that's at least $100 million, and it should be half a billion with some positive data from the trial of the cream.
Gary
I agree the price may decline from initial euphoria that may come with the release of TLD, but still believe over a billion in market cap can be sustained until either a partnership hits, or approval.
I don't believe they want to go to approval without a partnership, but it's always a possibility, and if it should occur they'd actually be even more valuable, but they'd have to struggle through the financing needed to get the BLA done as well as getting DCVax-Direct into further trials. They will bring money in with conversion of warrants, etc. but in the long run some dilution will be needed if they don't partner. The big difference from today is they should be diluting from a price that's at least 5 times higher than we currently are.
Next year should be very interesting. Happy New Year's,
Gary
I too heard about this stock today, looked at the DD found at this site and got in, I see some here who were also in OWCP and two weeks ago it was trading at about these prices, wish I had purchased more then, but you can see what a stock can do in just a few weeks there. Let's hope this does the same.
Happy New Year's,
Gary
I believe that good TLD is certainly worth a billion dollar market cap, and probably more when additional information comes out. I believe a partnership could bring in substantial money, and take the market cap to somewhere near $5 billion or more. I believe we'll partner before a BLA is submitted, which I believe could be by second quarter, but could go into the third. ASCO should be big for NWBO in 2020.
Gary
What's not true about what I said. Did the Doctors working in the clinics that administered the trial not know that the control group was to be crossed over. Could they not observe that people were living longer than what they experienced with SOC treatment. What isn't true.
You don't need to unblind to know that something good is happening in the trial, you need to unblind to quantify the benefits, but a blind man could see there was a substantial benefit.
What am I saying that isn't true.
Gary
I know some speak of filling a gap, others speak about being overbought, I don't believe in any of these things. What I believe is what is the market cap now, and what should it be.
We know the company is short on cash, but if they hold up for just a few more days, ten million shares should net them over a million dollars, two weeks ago it might have taken nearly half a billion shares to do the same thing. I believe cash problems will be taken off the table either by a partnership, or some dilutive effort, but nothing nearly as serious as they were facing just weeks ago.
So lets look at where we are. We now have a patent for our skin cream that already was proven safe in Phase 1 testing. We have a planned Phase 2 Trial that could start in Israeli hospitals at any time, or might actually have already started, we don't know. We actually have done a trial for the sublingual tablet that demonstrates it's safe and effective in getting the desired cannabis components into the bloodstream in a manner similar to the
GWPH approved product, even though we do not yet have patents on that product. And of course we have multiple patents that are still under consideration.
As I write this my stock quote indicates our market cap is currently just over $22 million. I believe all investors should consider that given the above, what would a fair market cap be.
Personally I believe that a market cap of $100 million is the least I would possibly place on where we are today, but that's my number, based on the stock price I'm suggesting it should be somewhere above $.40 as a minimum. If you accept that, are you really concerned about it filling a gap, or that it's overbought. I don't think so.
Happy New Year's,
Gary
Scotty,
The doctors involved in the clinical trial know a lot, they know that roughly 90% of their patients got the vaccine either up front or later, and they know they're living longer than they would have anticipated on the SOC. How much more do they need to know.
You can attempt to bash all that's said here, but clearly your attempts are futile. Once the results see the light of day nothing you can say will hold down the price.
Happy New Year's all,
Gary
I think you're right on the money, but I don't believe LP's price has been set too high, I believe she's sent a message to BP as to when she'll be ready to talk to them. Clearly a stock with a market cap under $1 billion can't get a $20 billion buyout, it simply can't happen. When the trial is unblinded and the market cap hopefully goes to a couple billion an interested BP could partner, and in doing so move the market cap up a few more billion. Then further results for DCVax-Direct and anticipation of approval could move the market cap to $10 billion or more, then you've reached a level where a $20 billion buyout might be considered by a BP.
This certainly could happen in the next year or two, it just won't happen immediately after releasing top line data no matter how great it may be.
Happy New Year's,
Gary
This certainly is the first I've heard that patents are in question. If in fact they must be resolved, I doubt the outcome of the trial would change, but some of the revenue may go to the holders of the patent NWBO is infringing on. I'm sure it can be resolved, but it may take some time to do so.
Looking at the company, it appears to be headquartered where NWBO had been, so it's reasonable to believe they had worked together at some point, and a principal was named on one of the patents, so clearly they knew one another.
I'm certainly no expert at these things, but I cannot believe that an FDA approval will be delayed by a patent dispute. I'm more inclined to believe that at some point this will be settled, and NWBO will give up some of the earnings from vaccine sales.
Gary
I really don't believe anything will hold the share price down once results are released. BP will pay what's demanded if it is no more than double what the stock is selling for if they want it bad enough.
If the data was featured in a show like 60 Minutes, or got front page treatment in a paper like the New York Times, it could jump to $10 or more in a flash, what it sustains would be a different matter, but if a BP wanted to buy at that time, $20 isn't out of the question.
On the other hand, if it doesn't get a lot of positive publicity, anticipation of an FDA approval could bring the market cap to a billion or more, actual approval should take it substantially higher. Somewhere while that's happening DCVax-Direct should undergo further testing and should produce an interim report, if that too is positive, it could greatly boost the share price. Assuming all the warrants, etc are converted to shares and nearly a billion shares are outstanding, it would require substantial sales revenue to reach a $10 billion market cap, or greater. I really don't believe it would take that long to achieve earnings in the half billion range, so with a P/E between 10 and 30 it certainly could be worth double digit billions in a couple years, perhaps less. It won't take that much longer for earnings to exceed a billion if it isn't bought out before.
Happy New Year's,
Gary
Cherry,
Happy to see you're still watching, and hope you kept some stock.
I believe it will keep going up as long as they continue with planned trials in Israeli hospitals for the cream now that they have patents on it. It's always been the lack of patents that kept the stock down, how do you spend money on trials for something anyone can duplicate. With that resolved, the cream, which is intended for a variety of skin diseases, not just psoriasis, will undergo trials, and I believe that they'll partner it with BP as well. If that partnership occurs, I believe we'll be back above $1 almost instantaneously. Without it efficacy will need to be demonstrated in the trial, but I believe that should happen in 2020, not complete trial data, but sufficient to learn what we have.
Meanwhile, if other patents come through, the value could grow even more dramatically. It's good hearing from you.
Have a Happy New Year's,
Gary
I hope that by this time next year those who sell NWBO in the coming year are searching for other stocks to compensate for their gains from NWBO. Personally I'd rather see my holdings grow to major six or seven figures and take the few dollars I might want out of margin. Not only don't you pay for money taken on margin, I believe the govt. still permits you to deduct the interest.
My goal is both to enjoy it, and pass it on to my kids who won't have a taxable event on what the inherit if the laws don't change. If they do change, I'll consider my strategy at that time.
Of course the key to all this is NWBO having success, and I believe most everyone here would agree that it would take a double digit share price to achieve that.
Gary
I've gained a health respect for market technicians, but I also believe that some of their thinking is flawed. One thing is the idea that trading patterns forecast all future events, another is that all gaps must fill.
I don't believe that anyone looking at the trading could have predicted the patent approval, if I could have, I'd certainly have purchased a hell of a lot of additional shares when it was half a cent. I believe the gap occurred as word of the patent approval spread, and it continues to grow based on that fact. I see only one way the price would fall, that's if the cream simply doesn't work. I believe it will be months before we get any real information about the use of the cream, other than perhaps something that's reported anecdotally.
I don't believe those in the trial are permitted to discuss it, but that doesn't mean a brother, sister, etc. etc. might not say their relative or friend is using a new cannabis based cream and boy has their condition improved. That's what anecdotal evidence is, it reflects what's happening, but it's unofficial.
It's my belief that at this time in it's development the company warrants a market cap of at least $100 million, probably more, until it's there I believe the price will keep advancing. It certainly could warrant billions, but only with approved products, or in a partnership or buyout.
Gary
I could justify much more than that if I believed that several of their patients would finally be approved. I wish I'd felt that a patent would be approved when the price was under a penny, I'd certainly have bought more.
For now we can wait for word from the company, the clinic, and the patent authorities and if the word is positive, this might be the company we believed it to be when the price was $3 before.
I'm a much bigger believer in looking at market caps than share price. If they gain drug approval on the cream and/or other products this company could certainly reach a multi-billion dollar market cap, or be bought out for that kind of money on proof that it's products were approvable.
Gary
Often such trades are really T trades where the MM's are reporting something done during the trading day. Not saying that's the case, but often it is.
I would suspect that some shorts are scrambling for funds or being sold out of positions they hold.
Gary
Does anyone have a link to the Phase 2 Trial for the cream. If so, besides answering me, I think the moderators should put a link on the home page. Hopefully it won't be long before the company sends out new guidance on how they're planning to proceed from here.
As for those who think this is a P&D, why would you dump a company that's currently not worth 1% of what it could be if a patented product did well in clinical trials who's planning is in the works. It won't happen instantly, but unlike diseases like cancer where trial can run decades, I believe in a month or so after treating psoriasis, acne, eczema, etc a determination can be made on how much it's improved. The regulators may want more time to verify that benefits are sustained, but my point is that it won't take years. Could approval come out of Phase 2, perhaps, but even if a Phase 3 is required, it won't take that long.
It should go without saying that BP and others will be interested in this product, a partnership or buyout once some degree of efficacy's been seen is almost a certainty. With regulatory approval where Doctor's everywhere could prescribe the cream, and insurance would pay a big part of the price, the potential is huge.
Certainly where cannabis is currently legal the product could probably be sold now, certainly after efficacy is demonstrated, if it's truly effective it could probably sell for a triple digit price if it's available. The question is, wouldn't a lot more people buy it with say a $5 co-pay, with the insurance picking up the difference.
I don't know if people realize that many drugs available OTC are still available by prescription. If you're on something for acid reflux, like Omeprazole, wouldn't you rather pay the $5 co-pay for perhaps a 3 months supply rather than the retail price OTC. Just ask your Dr. for a prescription. In certain cases something may not be covered by insurance, but is still less expensive when prescribed, I found that to be the case for a magnesium supplement recommended to me. It's one of the problems with the healthcare industry, they'd rather sell the name brand product that's available OTC.
Frankly I believe I'm one of many who invested here who'd almost given up, I intended to sell some for a tax loss, and would have continued to do it in subsequent years if it went nowhere. At the same time I voiced the opinion that an approved patent could turn it around. Thankfully that patent came before I sold, while I'm still not break even, now I wish I'd bought more when it was near half a cent, I had doubled my position at $.025, so I'm not hurting bad. For those who did purchase at near $.005, congrats, but don't sell for a ten banger when it could be a thousand banger or more in just a few years, if that. Remember one thousand times $.005 is just $5, add another patent approval or two and other positive trials and you could easily see $50 if it's not bought out first.
Happy New Year's,
Gary
OWCP's current market cap is currently under $18 million. Ask yourself what it should be with a patented drug in a Phase 2 Trial for skin disease. I suspect most would agree that most companies in this position would have market caps in the hundreds of millions, or more. I would hope that everyone recognizes that this means the stock has a long way to go before we even see any news on an actual trial, which may have begun, or could do so in an Israeli hospital any day.
Happy New Year's,
Gary
Not according to a broker at Fidelity, he confirmed that I could trade tomorrow and show the sale this year. I've heard that story for years, even as many as 4 days, but the brokerage has told me I have the choice. I've done it in past years and never had a problem.
Gary
I know many here criticize the CEO, but if there is one thing people need to credit her with it's keeping the company going. Yes she makes money if she lends the company money to operate, but what's important is that she has the money needed to do it if necessary.
Certainly I hope they don't do any massive dilutive action before unblinding, and after it at much higher prices they still will have little flexibility without either doing a small reverse split, or getting shareholders to agree to an increase in authorized shares. I believe either of these actions would be investor supported if our share price was somewhere North of $1. Of course a partnership could answer all financial problems, and that could come in shortly after the trial data is revealed, and remember, under confidentiality agreements a potential partner would gain access to everything, not just what's revealed in top line data.
I've yet to purchase a stock where everyone sung managements praises, NWBO is no different. If the share price moves up to $20, there will still be some who complain, though I suspect the numbers will be fewer.
Happy New Year's all,
Gary
While I don't believe that tax loss selling has been a major factor here, it certainly may have been why some people sold, it ends tomorrow. Recent investors like myself have tiny losses or gains at this point, but those who've been in for years may have a reason to sell and book a tax loss by the end of the trading tomorrow.
In the past when I've done this with stocks I wanted to continue holding, I purchase additional share in November, then I could sell after 31 days and select the shares I wish to sell to book the tax loss. If lucky the shares were up in those 31 days, if unlucky they were down.
Gary
Tomorrow is the last day an investor can sell for a tax loss this year, and I suspect that tax loss selling has the stock down. Frankly I sold some other cannabis based companies that were down badly for my tax loss, but I am holding this one as I still believe this is a real company, some of the others only offered promises, and they weren't being met.
I will admit, prior to last week I started to believe the same of OWCP, which I also hold. Then after discussing it for years they announced the approval of a patent on a cannabis based cream for psoriasis and other skin diseases, since that time it's worth about ten times it's recent lows and rising daily. My point isn't to move everyone there, though you might be smart to take a look, my point is that it can happen here as well. I believe the company is making progress, but as people keep pointing out, quarterly and annual results are unaudited.
I don't know that the answer is audited results, but clearly it wouldn't hurt. Additional sales news could be big, especially if something big came out of major gain by one of their holdings that also trade independently.
I hope next year if I'm looking for a tax loss I won't look here at all, as it will be a gain by then. Let's see what happens on Thursday and beyond. With the 31 day was rule the only prior investors who can book a tax loss and buy must wait 31 days to do so. If they sold before the end of November they're welcome to invest on Thursday and not effect the tax loss.
Gary
I believe it's very optimistic to believe a BLA could be filled before the end of the first quarter of next year. While nothing is impossible, I believe it's more realistic to expect it by the end of the third quarter of the year, and hope that it's done in the second quarter.
I still believe it's likely the vaccine will be partnered before a BLA is filled, and the partner will assist, and hopefully expedite the filing based on their experience in creating BLA's.
Effectively filing a BLA starts the FDA's and other regulators approval clock, I believe that most have 6 months to act, and lately in some cases the FDA has done approval a month or so faster. That's saying that an approval before next year's end is possible, but I certainly can't say it's probable. I would certainly say it's probable by 2021.
I believe it's very possible that the trial is now unblinded and the company with the assistance of the clinicians are working on top line data. Unlike most of you, I don't believe they'll issue a PR to say they unblinded. I also think that if that's the case, one or more potential partner, or buyer, may be checking on results right along side the company under confidentiality agreements. I don't believe we'll see a partnership before unblinding is announced, but believe it possible that it could come shortly thereafter.
Happy New Year's all,
Gary
Sukus,
If two years from now it was determined that both DCVax-L and Direct worked in a variety of cancers $100 billion would be a bargain, but if it were determined that only L worked on GBM and Direct didn't work, a buyer would probably feel they overpaid at $20 billion, perhaps even $10 billion.
My point is, the more you know it's capable of, the more it's worth, but if its usage is very limited, it will make money, but not nearly what it could if it works in multiple cancers. The question is, how long does the company wait? Personally I'd prefer a partnership that funds a multitude of clinical trials, where the partner has say a 25% interest in the company. Effectively the partner would have a great deal of control, as in a vote it's nearly impossible to defeat an issue brought to a vote by someone with 25% interest, but by remaining independently trading, the company can grow much faster than a BP would that acquired them with a great deal of success in the trials. I believe if a partner paid for multiple trials using both DCVax-L and Direct in a variety of cancer in two years time they'd have enough information to understand the potential of both vaccines. If in fact several of these trials were producing results that should lead to approval in a multitude of cancers, I believe the potential would certainly reach triple digit dollars. The company couldn't do it themselves, such trials would cost billions, but they probably could gradually add more trials as DCVax-L was approved and sales revenue was growing. Things can happen much quicker if we have a partnership first.
I believe that positive trial results will be worth a share price over a dollar, perhaps far more on the announcement of a partnership or additional trials. The equity a partner pays will set the share price in the immediate future, the terms will determine just how much they pay, whether they own a part of the company or just a percentage of the one vaccine. In some cases, a partner does both, gain a percentage of the sales for one product, as well as owning a percentage of the company. If this occurs and results look positive, I believe in one to two years you'll see $20 or more, but that's just the beginning.
As a Californian I was pulling for San Francisco tonight, and have just turned on 60 minutes, which is dealing with medical advances. I cannot say any of this relates directly to NWBO, but it certainly should get people thinking about medical advances, and I believe we're part of it. While I'm more a Ram's fan, then Charger's, if they're not in the playoffs, I'll go for the 49er's who won the game by about 2 inches in the end. As a West Coast team, I like Seattle as well and wish them luck next weekend. I'm sure if the show actually went into a vaccine for GBM someone would have posted all about it here.
Gary
I really wonder if things haven't played themselves out in a manner the company wanted. To begin with both reverse split packages the company proposed were so bizarre they practically guaranteed being turned down, especially with a provision that if not voted it was counted as a no vote.
It just might have been their intention to have it play out in such a way as to have the stock up to something like the dime to quarter range, and then perhaps ask for something like a one for four, where investors might willingly go along. I'm not saying that even that is necessary, it isn't, the O/S isn't really that excessive today, and with a reasonable share price they can bring in needed funds, or partner at a substantial financial gain once they have proof that the cream works.
I had certainly doubled my position earlier this year with the intention of selling off the half of the shares that I paid substantially more for. Now I'm not doing that, but will sell enough to give me some tax loss for the year. As of now I don't intend to sell until Tuesday as a market order, I do have a limit order in place at substantially above the current price. I did confirm with Fidelity that a trade made in that way is all that's necessary to establish the sale this year.
I frankly am getting rid of some cannabis stocks I've owned that are now worth practically nothing, but after the patent grant OWCP became one to hold, and perhaps even add to. It may be awhile before we see it at new all time highs, but at least now that vision has been restored to the company. Additional patent approvals and clinical trials will determine just how far it could go, or at what price it might be bought out for.
Gary
Options often don't vest immediately, but they still are part of the package. A decision to leave before they vest would leave the executive without them, but it doesn't mean they weren't in the package in the first place.
Frankly I'm of the belief that the executives in general are greatly overpaid, mostly by the option package, but as long as the compensation committees and BOD are essentially made up of executives, all who want to see similar compensation from their companies, it's unlikely to change anytime soon. I suspect that if the executive incentive package was in any way tied to the gains made by employees, employees would gain much greater annual increases.
I frankly never could understand the idea that a country was socialist or communist and yet so many very wealthy people came from there. It's said that if all his wealth was revealed, Putin would probably be worth more than anyone else in the world.
There was far less greed when I was a kid and people who were the highest earners paid well over half of each dollar they made to the Govt. Now these people fight to not pay taxes at all, and many pay less on a percentage bases than the average wage earner. I was fine with lowering corporate tax rates, but with it, I believed all sorts of loopholes should have been eliminated, that didn't happen and some of the most profitable companies in the world pay no taxes.
If it were up to me, the entire tax code would be thrown out, and we'd start from scratch in a much simpler way. I don't believe the whole thing should be more than 100 pages double spaced in 12 font and at no more than a tenth grade level. Then it wouldn't take a staff of tens of thousands or more to administer, and the tax laws would be so simple you couldn't get bad advice from the IRS. As is, if you follow the advise from the IRS and are audited, if the advise is wrong, you still pay including any penalties they tack on, the laws are so complex even those administering them don't understand all that's in them.
There is no doubt that LP and others in management here are wealthy, but their wealth is minor when compared to the wealth of other key executives. The key isn't how much they're worth, it's how much wealth they can help shareholders to make, as long as those numbers are good, I'm fine with whatever they earn.
Gary
That's not what I'm saying, I'm saying that part of the entire package they offered him included the options. Having options is as big or bigger in terms of awarding people with incentives to grow the value of the stocks. He'll have a sizable holding in the company once the options are exercized, but they'd be worthless if there is no success.
I have no problem with key people earning options rather than buying stock, in many cases key people are prevented from purchasing stock much of the time as they have inside information on what's happening. Certainly there are times when they can purchase, but it's never announced that company personnel may now purchase stock, you know they can if they do it.
I know in IMGN when options vest certain executives either cash them all in immediately, or at least in sufficient numbers to pay for the entire purchase, they're purchasing them at a substantially discounted price. Some people are concerned that they're selling, I'm not as I also know they're holding a lot of shares. A former executive sold much of his holdings, not because he didn't believe in the company, but because he was advised not to have such a concentrated position.
I believe people place too much emphasis on executives buying, or selling stock. An old broker friend of mine pointed out that like any of us, they do things like purchasing homes, cars, putting kids through school, etc and may need or choose to cash in stock to do so, likewise when they purchase it may be for the purpose of gifting the stock to a friend or relative. Most executives receive plenty of stock options in their incentive package, they'll be very wealthy if they make the rest of us wealthy as well.
Gary