is enjoying the adventure after 50 years on the beach
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$heff, if its worth $5 without approval what can we wish for after approval?
ADLS, now .785 getting close, was .45 last week
ADLS .55, +++ getting close to the moment of truth. Also some guy figured DDSS could be worth $15 eventually upon approval.
Eventually is a long time.
Ref DDSS: food for thought from Yahoo: (excuse if it was already posted)
>>>I actually posted this as a response in another thread, but I feel it deserves it's own thread as many longs including myself need something good to look forward too.
What is an accurate estimate on a post approval PPS for DDSS? I have actually seen a lot of numbers thrown around in these forums on what people project the post approval PPS will be. Some math wiz in the Heb forums posted a PPS calculation several weeks back. I happen to be relatively good at excel spreadsheets, so I took his calculation method and made my own calculator in the spreadsheet I use to track my BioTech stocks with. I am also pretty handy creating websites, and was thinking about creating a website that had a PPS calculator you could plug in any stock to. What would any of your thoughts be on that idea? Anyways, here is what I came up with when I plug in the numbers for DDSS:
Total Customer Base: 49,115,504 //Generally accepted that 16% of americans will suffer from depression. 16% of 306,971,905
Annual Revenue Per Customer: $300 //I think this is very conservative, figure on average of $100 per bottle with 2 refills
Possible Market Penetration: .07 //I think this is a very conservative value
Net Profit Margin: .10 //This is most likely higher, like in the .15-.18 range
Cost of Equity: .12 //I stole this figure from Heb, although I believe DDSS would be larger as it has a higher BETA volatility
Number Of Outstanding Shares: 56,830,000
(((customer base*revenue*market*profit)/equity)/shares)=$15.12
Expected PPS: $15.12
Again, this is just my best educated guess. If someone has a better one then please let me know, or if you have any suggested changes let me know and if they are reasonable I will plug them into the calculation and repost. Only promise I can make is that it will be a lot higher than what it is currently at. See references for this post below.
GLTA,
v/r,
Rob
http://www.depression.com/who_gets_depre...
http://www.nimh.nih.gov/health/publicati...
http://factfinder.census.gov/home/saff/m...
http://209.85.135.132/search?q=cache:xuM...
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
its appears to be but not sure.
My scan shows volume 66 mil as of 11.27 am, 10/12 minutes ago it was 36 mil.
OK who just bought 20,000,000 BIEL?
Biel From Google:
>>.BIEL should market its stock as an anti-depressent! It sure is working better for me than zoloft, (no thanks to pfizer). GO BIEL!!!!!!!!!!!!
Almost as good as that coffee company; .20 march/$16. I had a few shares of HGSI for a change.
CPYE New Wii release scheduled for August:
http://www.gamespot.com/wii/action/realheroesfirefighter/index.html?tag=gallery_summary;game_summary
How to have a really bad day:
1. Leave an open order to sell HGSI at $4.02 (like someone did this AM)
2. Be short 1 million shares of HGSI at $3 and sailing for Bermuda today. ( NOT ME )
That's an excellent question and other can answer better than I but stock markets trade 24 hrs a day around the globe and follow the sun. NYSE opens at 9.30 am but London opens 4 hours earler and the Asian Mkts earlier. Traders often watch Japan open at 1200 midnight Sunday US time.
If you have an online account which offers a streamer try opening it at 7 am and you'll see trading usually starting early for hot story stocks like HGSI is today.
Pre Mkt orders can be filled from 7:30 am to 7:30 pm at my brokerages. But these mkts are better for selling than buying in my opinion.
CPYE @.04, Mkt Cap 2 mil, 51.4 mil 0/S; this company makes cute and cheap computer games and some rather good ones; may be breaking out on some buzz about a new game coming this summer that could be BIG!
HGSI $10 more from yahoo board:
Analysts who are less negative about the company's prospects for success in lupus say a positive study result could send the shares over $20. "In our view, this could be a tremendous opportunity if the data is positive," Citigroup analyst Yaron Werber recently told investors.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/con...
Analysis are often wrong. HGSI $11.50 pre mkt.
HGSI food for thought from Yahoo:
"In serologically active patients treated with belimumab, the frequency of patients with a new A or 2 BILAG B flares decreased from 30% in the first 6 months to 23% after 1 year of therapy, vs placebo 33% and 25%, respectively. At 4 years, the
frequency declined to 5%"
So, the longer you take it, the less you will have flare ups..OMG, if this is true, this could almost be considered a cure by most standards!!!!! What I wouldn't give to have my life back with Benylysta!!!!!!!
HGSI >>post from google ths am
n many ways, this situation reminds me of DNDN. DNDN went back and
did a retrospective analysis and found a large DISTINCT AND WELL KNOWN
subgroup that responded to their vaccine. The analysts dismissed this
a cherry picking data, but they were right to be suspicious since many
biotechs have been guilty of wishful thinking. But DNDN had just
missed the endpoint,,,,so it was not much of a leap to see that the
followup study probably would be good.
HGSI
Lupus can mainly be thought of as seropositive and seronegative types.
It would have be logical to prospectively look at these separately
from the beginning.
This first thing I wanted to know was how seropositive vs negative
patients responded. These subsets of patients are long believed to be
different diseases which progress and respond to treatment
differently.
Before the results of the phase II study came out, I was talking with
other biotech friends and wondering why they did not have the
seropositive patients designated as a prospective population,,,so HGSI
could claim statistical significant if it came out positive.
This is not your typical retrospective analysis,,,,an excerpt from a
news story below,,,
>>>"The latest study includes only patients who have certain immune-system antibodies, which may indicate more disease activity. These patient made up about 75% of the Phase II study. Furthermore, the trial's endpoint uses a combination of several disease-activity measures that have never been used in a study before.
A retrospective analysis of the failed Phase II study shows it would
have succeeded using the new endpoint, which gives Benlysta an edge
that previous therapies didn't have, Labinger said.
After working with the FDA, Human Genome obtained a special protocol
assessment, which is an agreement with the agency on a study's design
that meets regulatory requirements for a new drug application and
could lead to a drug's approval.
Although Birchenough acknowledges that the endpoint may be legitimate,
he argues that there have been "few, if any" cases where a
retrospective subset analysis of a failed Phase II trial led to
subsequent success in a late-stage trial. (WRONG, WRONG,
WRONG,,,although "usually true, I also usually wonder why some
companies go to phase III when the data for the subset is so
weak....But there are also plenty of drugs that had a great response
in a large subset that succeeded).
Researchers have long struggled with the design of lupus clinical
trials because almost every patient has different symptoms and,
accordingly, gets different treatments including anti-inflammatory
drugs, steroids, anti-malarials and immunosuppressants."<<<<
This is not a tiny subpopulation,, first of all,,,75% (72% in HGSI
later press release) of 449 patients were seropositive.
second,,,significance was p<0.01.
I think the only question was lack of dose response,,,but if the low
dose was fully effective,,,then a higher dose will not work any better
(typical of most drugs). But just as important,,,,ALL 3 DOSES SHOWED
ACTIVITY OVER PLACEBO.
And the dark horse HGSI surges to lead the pack. I got mad at the mkts again ten days ago and dumped a bunch including HGSI and knew immediately that was a mistake. I just was able to buy it back under 2.50 last week and it hit nearly $4 today.
Even if I find another CTEI I don't think I would have the patience to hold it. I am best at day trading and not very smart about that, just damn lucky.
Catfish, Late is better than none. The new guy can't be worse. Have you looked at HGSI, NSPH or DDSS?
$heff, Thanks for NSPH, I am holding some ADLS also, they are close to a ruling too. I don't understand the "efficacy" argument. If it works, it works.
Advanced Life Sciences [[ADLS]] Cethromycin NDA (once-daily antibiotic for the treatment of community acquired pneumonia - CAP) is pending with an expected PDUFA decision date of 7/31/09. On 6/2/09, ADLS announced that the FDA’s Anti-Infective Drugs Advisory Committee voted in the majority that Restanza (cethromycin) demonstrated safety for the outpatient treatment of adults with mild-to-moderate CAP (11 positive, 3 negative, 1 abstaining). However, the committee voted that Restanza did not demonstrate efficacy in the treatment of CAP (3 positive, 11 negative, 1 abstaining).
ADLS I meant, another senior moment.
acls looking better, are they not close?
CPST,8:32AM Capstone Turbine eligible for reimbursement from U.S. Government Recovery Act fund (CPST) 0.72 : The United States government, on July 9, announced that renewable energy, alternative energy, microturbine and CHP projects, including products from CPST, are eligible for reimbursement from a $3 billion fund created through the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act.
I own a few because they also power a hybrid experimental car that could be revolutionary.
Great alert on MSHL, sorry I missed it. Seems like significant news but markets not acting very friendly. Watching NVAX leaking.
HGSI soft too, both long term buys i think.
The enegizer name should be a real kicker for their sales. Are you noticing dcgn and mdtl firming up? Got my Power station from Medis yesterday, looks neat. Would think the military applications could be large.
Have a good 4th. Lots of relatives visiting us for our 50th anniversary.
If they can get this big ship turned around and through $15 it will be hard to stop. I sold 1200 at $53 and felt terrible about it until last year.
Or the quick flip to pay for the vacation a few hours before you leave.
GE has some Jan 15 calls at .45 with good potential IF things turn around.
Hard not to think this news is not major but I'm sure no authority. How might they profit from it?
The "patch" worked for me MANY times ggg!
I am into SFIO in a small way, they have developed a new e-cig which they say is superior to previous offerings. They have put together a small network of interested distributors overseas where as you probably know smoking is a very popular vice.
Two things recently of interest Yesterday morning FOX news had a interview with the head guy from the Anti Smoking Coalition who was positive on the idea of e-cigs as a way to break the tobacco habit. He said they will be marketed strongly overseas where governments are just beginning to address the smoking problem.
China for instance reports COPD EMPHYSEMA is the 3rd leading killer.
Secondly "O" just signed the tobacco bill and yesterday admitted he is a SMOKER. Says he is 95% cured ( so was I for 50 years)meaning he only smokes 5% of each day? (Think I smoked less than 1 hour a day and cigars to boot and still developed COPD).
So for a number of reasons I am playing some SFIO.
Smoke (D)
"You have ordered 1 Medis PowerPak Xtreme Portable Power Solution Value Pack! " $17.97
Cute idea,
we should check out Yungster.com "Daily deals at Yugly prices.
ADLS Interesting post from another board mention FDA target dates of 7/31.
>>On June 2, an advisory panel voted against the drug's efficacy for
severe cases of community acquired pneumonia. Although they said that
it reached all of its safety endpoints. ADLS' trials were to prove
the drug's effectiveness against mild-to-moderate cases of CAP so that
people could receive treatment before their illness reached a critical
stage (becoming severe) that would require hospitalization. This
advisory panel only makes recommendations to the FDA... the FDA still
has to make up its own mind. Interestingly, ADLS had worked with the
FDA, through CAP drug workshops designed by the FDA, to model their
trials in the first place. At the time, ADLS believed that making a
CAP drug that was meant for mild-to-moderate CAP was, in fact, the
best approach for getting approval. If the FDA votes against
cethromycin a lot of health professionals (doctors, nurses, etc.) will
be very disappointed. There is a great need for this drug and it can
do a lot of good. Although there are always chances that it won't get
approval, it is highly doubtful that it won't at least get partial
approval. The FDA may require additional trial-work to further
demonstrate its efficacy endpoints against severe CAP -- the target
populations from the last trial were specifically for mild-to-moderate
and the numbers that were used by the panel to support their
conclusions on efficacy were unreliable, to say the least. The FDA
knows this and won't make the same mistake. They may require further
trials, or approve it for mild-to-moderate forms of CAP just simply
because of the public need, then request further trial work to see
what can be done to tweak it for severe CAP. The drug can always be
resubmitted, down-the-road, for sever CAP, as well. In my opinion,
its chances of getting approval look very good at the moment. I do
not expect delays on this one. I think that the FDA will state
exactly what they plan to do with cethromycin. I think that the news,
however complicated and unclear at first as it may be, will show to be
very good for the company. Marketing will come.
On Jun 24, 3:20 am, Jack Le <biopharmasto...@gmail.com> wrote:
<<<<<
Thanks, ADSL nice potential.
just bought half back so we are in the same boat.
MDTL ,Stopped out at .98.
Not bad , what else you like?
Just kidding of course.
I like yours better than mine. Good alert!
Wow! MDTL $35 old high, same shares? How did I ever miss that one? Sounds like a neat product too. Home shopping network?
Why not Walmart or Ace Hardware?
Ref: CPST not for widows and orphans (not sure anything is) but here's what research says :
>>>Because the earnings of CPST are not available, the Price to Sales and Price to Book ratios are the most appropriate valuation measures. Therefore CPST seems highly valued with a Price to Sales ratio of 3.539, one of the highest in the Misc. Capital Goods industry. which is supported by a Price to Book of 3.07 that is also the highest in the industry.<<<
They also just (6/9) lost their CEO to International Battery and missed with their latest revenues.
So it figures to zoom. (smile)
Also CPST re-invested based on this new electric car modification.
(I once entered CPST in a popular contest here at $1.37 but was told later it didn't qualify >too high quality< it went over $4; don't know what stock won but most flopped.
globenewswire
Photo Release -- Capstone C30 Successfully Integrated Into Ford Vehicle by Langford Performance Engineering Ltd.
* Press Release
* Source: Capstone Turbine Corporation
* On Thursday June 11, 2009, 8:00 am EDT
CHATSWORTH, Calif., June 11, 2009 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Capstone Turbine Corporation (www.capstoneturbine.com; Nasdaq:CPST - News), the world's leading clean technology manufacturer of microturbine energy systems, today announced that its C30 liquid fueled microturbine has been successfully integrated into a Ford S-Max people carrier in the United Kingdom.
A photo accompanying this release is available at http://www.globenewswire.com/newsroom/prs/?pkgid=6263
To see a promotional video of the "Whisper" please click on the following link: http://www.capstoneturbine.com/whisper_promo.wmv
Langford Performance Engineering (www.lpengines.com), headquartered in Wellingborough England, designed and modified the Ford S-Max seven seat crossover vehicle into a series hybrid plug in vehicle with a C30 under the hood as an electric range extender. Langford reports that the "Whisper Eco-Logic" car gets up to 80 mpg in early stage demonstration testing.
"The Ford modified by Langford is an extremely practical solution and one that Langford has been working on for over two years," said Jim Crouse, Capstone's Executive Vice President, Sales and Marketing. "The design characteristics of Capstone's turbine permits ultra low emissions, high fuel economy, multi fuel capability, no coolants or lubricating oil, and little to no maintenance in an automotive application," added Crouse.
"Our Whisper Eco-Logic vehicle is a plug in electric car with an on board turbine generator to keep the batteries charged and extend the range of the car beyond that of a typical electric vehicle," said Dick Langford, Langford's Founder and Managing Director. "This sets it apart from the hybrids now available such as the Lexus and Toyota which use conventional 4 stroke engines to provide both vehicle drive and battery charging. In early demonstration testing the car is getting up to 80 miles per gallon and travels 40 miles on electric power before the Capstone turbine generator starts up and charges the lithium ion batteries," added Langford.
"Capstone was founded on the concept of a C30 powering hybrid vehicles so it is extremely gratifying to see the Langford Ford with a C30 under the hood," stated Darren Jamison, Capstone's President and Chief Executive Officer. "Langford did an exceptional job integrating the turbine, power electronics and batteries into the vehicle without impacting any of the seven seats or increasing the overall vehicle weight," added Jamison.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Photo-Release-Capstone-C30-pz-3899578937.html?x=0&.v=2
Smoke (d)