$heff's $tation of $tocks & $olid DD

[smoke]

Ref DDSS: food for thought from Yahoo: (excuse if it was already posted)
>>>I actually posted this as a response in another thread, but I feel it deserves it's own thread as many longs including myself need something good to look forward too.

What is an accurate estimate on a post approval PPS for DDSS? I have actually seen a lot of numbers thrown around in these forums on what people project the post approval PPS will be. Some math wiz in the Heb forums posted a PPS calculation several weeks back. I happen to be relatively good at excel spreadsheets, so I took his calculation method and made my own calculator in the spreadsheet I use to track my BioTech stocks with. I am also pretty handy creating websites, and was thinking about creating a website that had a PPS calculator you could plug in any stock to. What would any of your thoughts be on that idea? Anyways, here is what I came up with when I plug in the numbers for DDSS:

Total Customer Base: 49,115,504 //Generally accepted that 16% of americans will suffer from depression. 16% of 306,971,905
Annual Revenue Per Customer: $300 //I think this is very conservative, figure on average of $100 per bottle with 2 refills
Possible Market Penetration: .07 //I think this is a very conservative value
Net Profit Margin: .10 //This is most likely higher, like in the .15-.18 range
Cost of Equity: .12 //I stole this figure from Heb, although I believe DDSS would be larger as it has a higher BETA volatility
Number Of Outstanding Shares: 56,830,000
(((customer base*revenue*market*profit)/equity)/shares)=$15.12
Expected PPS: $15.12

Again, this is just my best educated guess. If someone has a better one then please let me know, or if you have any suggested changes let me know and if they are reasonable I will plug them into the calculation and repost. Only promise I can make is that it will be a lot higher than what it is currently at. See references for this post below.

GLTA,

v/r,

Rob

http://www.depression.com/who_gets_depre...
http://www.nimh.nih.gov/health/publicati...
http://factfinder.census.gov/home/saff/m...
http://209.85.135.132/search?q=cache:xuM...
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