Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
just a follow up.
While the technical chart is showing uncertainty in its current direction, if the news is developing something very positive,at some point (maybe soon?) the technical chart would become shattered,as a big surge takes place. I dont want to lose sight of the developing science and news that could come. I'm just showing what the price action is doing. a zig zag dance up and down that looks to me unresolved around 18.60 and 19.60 capped around 20 and support steps holding around 18.60
There have been some bullish clues and some bearish clues, and the strictly technical analysis has to call this picture neutral and unresolved around 19 area. There could be a 2 dollar move in either direction coming next. A downwave from 19.50 to 17.50 or an upwave from 19 to 21. on this technical chart.
The fundamental sentiment has to be considered very bullish as we know. but we continue to see wall street trading selling down the rally bounces. and leaving the price stuck in this zig zag zone.
The chart might offer some clues for finding best bargain lows to buy more.
---------------------------------------------------------
and on a side note, The political insiders have been sounding warnings about an imminent stock market crash coming. I do think its time people start considering this possibility. and have a plan in place. have dry powder cash in the account to buy crash bottoms if it happens.
If the price movement of AVXL
is influenced that much by other stocks, I'm not tuned into that element very well. I suppose the sector influence does have some impact, but mostly I'm just looking at the AVXL chart itself.
Sometimes Ive looked at the XBI to see if that offers any clues. but mostly I am getting decent clues just by watching the AVXL price action.
Today, in my view, we are seeing the ongoing price action battle continuing, unresolved. in this zone between 19.60-19.80/20.00 and 18.00-18.50
centered around 19 area. zig zagging in this zig zag wave 4 zone. As long as price stays under 20 area and doesnt climb successfully into 21/22 area, we have this unresolved zone between 18 and 20 , unresolved, but with a downward bias in my view. why downward? because this zig zag zone is an Elliott wave 4 pattern, which would suggest its waiting to get capped again at the 19.10-19.50 area and turn downwave into the Wave 5 downwave that ought to retest 18.00-17-16 area to finish the pattern. I cant predict this downwave will happen, but watching patterns play out, you get clues along the way. Todays clues were mixed. the opening plunge to 18.65 was bearish to fail the 19 support step and the 18.80 support step. To hold the 18.65 was ok as neutral. The strong bounce back up to test 19.80 was a bullish energy.the pullback all the way down to 18.88 was a bearish energy,in my view, and it finishes the day around 19. So I'll call the day unresolved and stuck in the middle.
Theres no pattern change into bullish momentum unless /until the rally pushes into the 21/22 area and a pullback holds the 20 area.
The capping in the 19.60 area holds a bearish energy in my view. The support steps around 18.50 remain critical to hold and for developing a bullish bias, really needs to be holding 19 now.
So the whole price action battle here is still unresolved.and today did nothing to change that ,in my view.
AVXL battle zone 18 to 20 area
and it also can be seen as 17.50 to 20.50
today,support held at 19
so far so good.
or that SAVA should be about $60
The S+P at target 4550
just overhead.
and in a week or two, what are the chances that the major calamity starts happening, and the market crash begins to happen.Insiders are thinking it will begin when the 3 gorges dam in china collapses.
Bitcoin will crash. marshal law will be announced. Insiders have been warning people for a few weeks to stock up on extra food and supplies.
Part of me doesnt think the market will crash, but IF there is major chaos triggered, like major war, or Trump is reinstated as president. something like the Dam in china collapsing. maybe the market crashes.
$SPX chart
I see that same downward channel line too
from the 31 and 28. I think the resistance steps start now, maybe even around 19.50. we need more follow thru in this rally bounce. But step by step is ok too, so I'm watching for support to hold ,this time closer to 19 area. A bullish turnaround has a chance to develop if the rally climbs as high as the 23/24 area. even 22.50 might be ok.
A nice rally day.
Maybe some added bullish bias is the fact that the latest downwave did not retest the 17.50 but held the 18.00 and 18.50 and then jumped today
through a few resistance steps. IF the pattern makes higher highs and higher lows. I'm looking for the 19 area to hold and upward steps to try and reach 20.50-21.50//22 area. Its all resistance up there in the 'cloud zone'
Good news can bust the technical picture,but otherwise the patterns have been technical.
resistance cloud target zone
18.00-18.50 support held
testing the resistance now. Wave 4 ABCDE completed. watch 19 area to become support holding or to fail.
AVXL chart with Fib Arcs
lets say this is for entertainment purposes.
AVXL Fibonacci energy flow
Nice post ,sab63090
all good points
Excellent post ,traderpete
Well said.
Ive watched your trading reports
I appreciate the effort you make to trade and your honest reporting. Ive noticed that you often buy too soon and sell too soon. and all the while Ive posted my charts and analysis, and you could have made better use of it to get better entry and exit on your trades. but in any case, I wish you good trading.
It does seem to be looking downward
hits the 18.00 step today. lower lows /lower highs.
The resistance zone 18.65-18.85 area caps the bounce,and it fall down again. But we have this little reverse head and shoulders picture now, with 18 as the head and 18.25 as the shoulders, but I cant say it looks strong here.
The week is over but the pattern is looking still ongoing ,unfinished. I sense we have more down to go ,into the 17's next week.
I didnt buy any in the 18's.
A retest of the 17.50 area would complete the Wave D in the Wave 4 zig zag pattern.
What I'm looking at is
a pattern playing out. Elliott wave system calls the current pattern a zig zag sideways Wave 4 , that is looking to drop down into a Wave 5 down to finish the downwave. That wave 4 pattern is ongoing still, and now heading down after a subwave C peak at the 19.50 resistance, now heading down towards the subwave D target area around 17.50 again. so the current downward action just needs to be watched. to see where it goes in the coming days. where will the next bottom pivot low happen. The target zone for this pattern is looking at the 17.75-17.45 area, which would be part of the Wave 4 pattern,it would become the subwave D, and from there ought to bounce up, and the main targets for that bounce would be to the 18.50 area and Fail (a very bearish clue for the downwave to continue) or a better rally to target the 19.50 area again ,which would become the subwave E in the Wave 4 pattern. and from that peak (subwave E) at 19.50 would need to be watched some more, to see where the sell down goes, to retest 18.50 and either hold support or fall down again to retest 17.50 and try to begin the Wave 5 downwave.
This is All part of the Elliott Wave 4 zig zag picture that is still ongoing. We wont know if the Wave 5 down has taken over until we see it fall to test 17.50. and bounce weakly to test 18.50 area and sell down stronger into the 17's and find the next completed Bottom below 17.50. Can you visualize all these track patterns? Thats what you have to be able to do if you want to understand TA charting.
Currently, the key takeaway for me at the moment is that the 18.50 support failed to hold today, which makes the bias more downward looking to me ,and now I'm watching to see how weak the bounce might be and where the resistance stops it, and the selling starts again. Today,I think the bias became a little more bearish and looking downward,to try and fall lower. The 18 step 17.75 and 17.50 area. The 1 dollar move targets 17.65. the 2 dollar move targets 17.50. (from the 19.50 peak) The Wave 4 zig zag pattern is still ongoing,so I'm just watching it some more.
I dont know how fast or slow
the time it will take for price to reach a target. .It would be nice if that could be seen in advance. I place more importance on finding the target price, and try to not worry as much about how long it takes to get there.
Sometimes we see price plunge down alot at the open or jump alot at the open. sometimes we see a good bounce or a weak bounce. The support and resistance is easy to see where the pivot reversals happen. and thats a key thing to notice. So now from today we have resistance around 19.00 and 18.65 area. add 18.50 to that. AVXL likes to make 1 dollar moves and 2 dollar moves. I'm seeing a 2 dollar move setting up, and may have already started. would it be from 19.50 to continue down to retest 17.50 or would it be a 1 dollar bounce from 18.25 back up to test 19.25. I cant predict the next move. but I'm watching these 2 track patterns.I dont know if that helps at all. Today, the 18.50 didnt hold strong. 18.25 doesnt seem a clear step to me. The resistance pivot reversed around 18.65 ,I could see a 1 dollar move down to target 17.65 on the way to retest 17.50 area. and the larger picture in the zig zag Wave 4 pattern then becomes ABCD and waiting for the bounce to try and climb back up to retest the 19.50 again. IF this starts to develop,then I'd be cautiously watching the resistance around the 18.50 area to stifle the bounce and start selling down into the Wave 5 to finish at lower lows.below 17.50 but all that is premature at the moment.
At this moment I think its less important to forcast a target than it is to just sit back and watch. and see what it does.
@sab63090
I agree with everything you said too.
support/resistance steps and simple works better sometimes.
19.55 / 18.25/19.25/ 18.25/ 18.65/18.25/18.45/17.65/18.25/17.55/17.25/16.50 /16.15.
fun with numbers
@jbcan
I agree with everything you said. Sounds like youve been doing pretty well with the trading/investment.
To answer your question
Examining the price action with
TA helps me to find the best bargain targets to buy and the sensible rally targets to take some profit at. Sometimes I miss the bullseye by one step or two but often I get very close.
Thanks K123
I always follow your comments.
-----------------------------------------------------
One additional element of watching the price action that helps people is to also notice the volume when price makes a move. Thats probably something I should watch more closely than I do.
FIB targets up and down
Thats a good idea investor2014
Its worth doing the extra effort.
Thanks Dawgfan, and bb86 for your support.
Right now,as the Wave 4/zig zag pattern is playing out,it seems to me about neutral ,at 50/50 odds of going into an upwave or downwave, mainly because the 18.50 support area is key to watch. and see it if breaks down lower. Its become a key marker for support. 18.45-18.55 area. Technically, the whole bottom zone down to 17.50 is in play as part of the Wave 4 zig zag, but the bullish picture could develop IF the 18.50 support step would hold. So I have to watch what price action does around that 18.50 area ,just below. it may offer some clues in the next days. There are a few layers to see in the chart picture. The short time frame and longer time frames. hourly,daily,weekly, etc...on the daily and weekly picture, we can watch the 17.50 Low get retested and it can just be a neutral part of the larger picture, the Wave 4 pattern ongoing. That pattern can jump back up in the zig zag from 17.50 back to 19.50 and the wave 4 zig zag is still ongoing. So trying to give a bullish bearish measurement of odds to something is a bit complex depending on the time frames. On the daily and weekly, the Wave 4 is the entire zone from 17.40 to 21, but on the hourly and short time frames, the 18.50 support becomes important to watch. and the 19 step is important to watch as is the 19.50 resistance.
--------------------------------------------------
How that translates into understanding what I'm watching for price action, starting with the short time frame, the next moves are right now, to watch 18.50 to hold or not. to watch any bounce from there, to watch immediate resistance from 19.00-19.50 and see what that looks like, and to see if resistance shows stronger selling to try and head downward. its watching the battle field from 18.50 to 19.50 in the intraday picture, but also to step back and see how it all fits into the larger picture, the Wave 4,zig zag,that bias wants to anticipate capping at resistance 19.00-19.50 and starting the Wave 5 down to retest 17.50 and maybe lower targets. I could say the "odds" are currently more bearish,only because this Wave 4 pattern suggests a Wave 5 down to come. In that sense I might say the pattern currently looks 55/45 favoring a downward move to continue. But that bias could change tomorrow IF we see 18.50 hold strong and a good rally bounce breaks through 19.50 to target 21.
Its the ups and downs of a rollercoaster ride. but we can pinpoint the key spots on the chart to watch out for.
I'm watching to see if support holds strong around 18.50. and watching to see how strong resistance is at 19.00-19.25-19.50. This current unresolved zig zag needs to be watched some more before the bias can be seen. Lets call it neutral for now.The trigger point hasnt been hit yet. but this downward move today from the 19.50 might have been (subwave C) that started the wave 5 down. we wont know until the downward move breaks below 18.50 and targets 18 and into the 17's.
I know the more I describe, the more complex it gets. sorry for that. Just watch how the price action fights a battle between 19.50-19.00 and 18.50 for now. . and the immediate clue is to watch this latest selling down, and see if tomorrow continues down and breaks below the 18.50 support area. That might be the next clue.
or I could try to explain it better to you so you might understand how price action works.
But my comments are more directed at those who are paying attention to the price action and understand how it moves. from support to resistance,makes patterns, has targets, and shows clues ,runs along track patterns, etc. I'm willing to make the effort to explain it for anyone who is sincerely interested in understanding it better..
Price action today
continues the track pattern I described in recent days. This appears to be a zig zag zone from 18.50 to 19.50 and today did exactly that.like recent days. This pattern is what Elliott wave calls a 'Wave 4' and technically it would suggest that it will develop into the next downwave (Wave 5) one more step to a finishing bottom. Maybe it would retest the 17.50 or fall to a lower target. Of course its possible that it wont create a Wave 5 down, but thats the basic pattern to watch for.
This zig zag pattern typically has3 moves ABC or 5 moves ABCDE,up and down like this. and begins the wave 5 down from the C or the E.we just finished the C today, so the current move downward needs close watching from here.
If we can gain any clues by following Elliott wave patterns, then this pattern is not hard to see and to distinguish between this non bullish zig zag versus a strong Wave 3 surge into a larger rally which is bullish. That wave 3 bigger rally that would be starting from the 18.50 support,is stalling at 19.50 resistance so far. So the battle is happening in this zone,as I described in recent days, and remains still unresolved ..
Its not a crisis if this wave 4 turns down into the wave 5 and targets the 17.50 or lower bottoms, it might just mean that the Larger picture will need to finish making the bottom,in a longer time frame swing pattern. Its ok to wait for the pattern to finish developing the bottom.
The first time the 17.40 LOW held and made a 3 dollar rally to the 20.50/21 resistance was a decent rally wave.to start with. But building upon that wave,to become a bullish rally pattern, needs to be holding support at the 18.50 area and then rally again to higher targets around 22/23/24 area. The fact that it is being stifled at 19.50 becomes a bearish clue in my view. and this zig zag pattern ,as a Wave 4, is waiting for the wave 5 down to develop. 18.50 still needs to hold support to maintain a neutral bias,with any bullish potential,and bullish momentum must break thru the 19.50 capping resistance. The zig zag battle is still ongoing unresolved. at the moment.
AVXL Chart
Just watch the price action
for a few days and then decide
Price action today
A test of support and resistance today. The resistance capped at the 19.50 and the support held at the key 18.50 step. so far so good. the bounce from that 18.50 was critical to watch for resistance at 19 to sell hard and create the momentum for a down move. You can see the picture on the 5 minute chart candles with the bollinger (20ma) and the channel lines that were there and ready to cap and sell it down BUT...the buying pushed it through the 19 to finish the day at the 19.30 area. Giving the slightly bullish bounce the win on points. but I think mostly a draw, a neutral day,still unresolved in this critical battle zone between 18.50 and 19.50. that needs to be resolved in the coming days. The rally target steps to me are looking at a retest of the peak zone 20.50-21 area. and IF we get that follow thru move, the support steps lift up to 19 area from 18.50. 19 looking to hold. 19.10 area. and a continued rally that develops some strength to target 22/23/24 area and then see what happens from there for a pullback.
The support step at 18.50 tested again today and held is the main story
for today. The resistance at 19.50 needs to be broken thru for the upward pattern to proceed.
The developing picture looks a little stronger to me at the moment in the upward looking direction,but this upward move should show us some momentum here,not be sluggish. not struggle to break through 19.50 it should have some determination to jump to 19.75 and continue on to retest the 20.50 peak area. It would be an Elliott subwave 3, which is supposed to have some strength .
On the bearish clue for price feeling, the sluggishness is a clue to see it become sluggish around 19.40 overhead, and act like it wants to stay capped at 19.50 and wants to retest 18.50 again, is bearish clue for resistance capping . Thats not what a bullish wave 3 wants to do, but it is what a bearish picture wants to do, to retest the support at 18.50 and break it down to retest the 17.50. and thats the current battlefield in the picture from 17.50 to 20.50.
There are bullish targets waiting around 22/23/24 and higher, and bearish targets waiting at 18/17/16 etc. and the central battle is happening now in this 18.50-19.50 area. Still unresolved.
Welcome to the Forum Big Daddy
Watching the price action for today
The pullback continued to the support step at the 18.50 area and bounced. Holding that 18.50 support is ok so far.
would have looked more bullish if the higher steps at 19-19.50 had held, but its ok for the swing pattern. we got a 3 dollar rally from 17.50 to 20.50 area and then a 2 dollar pullback to 18.50. its an ok track pattern for the next rally wave to target higher steps like 21.50 22.50 and a better bullish picture would be if it reaches the 23-25 area to finish. From those higher peaks,I'd want to see the pullback make higher lows holding at the 20 shoulder zone and then the picture starts to look more bullish ,with that reverse head and shoulders pattern. So a good follow through rally this week in the next few days from here to test 22 area would be the bullish move to watch for.
AVXL Fib arc chart picture
I'm having unsolvable problems with my laptop,have to go buy a new one. so this might be the last chart from me fora while. (stop cheering)
This is what the Fib arc pattern looks like. I like the Fib tools, and somehow they show the playing field pretty good. and the price action just seems to be magnetically drawn along the track patterns. good enough to have some vision . the 20 and 21 area is the first resistance zone there is a qualitative value to higher price points. 23 is better than 22, and the bullish bias starts to develop IF 25 and 26 get reached in this pattern. The key in the developing picture,is for the rally to climb as high as the 24/25/26 area to finish , so that... it has enough room to pullback and HOLD strong support at the 21/20 shoulder zone. to develop a reverse head and shoulders picture. Thats where the bullish support would and should develop,but first we need more follow through climbing to those higher targets. Right now the 20/21 shoulder zone is a Resistance step,and we might see some strong resistance right here at 20/21 that could roll over and send the price tumbling into the next downwave that should retest the 17 and maybe find lower target steps. Thats the caution for the next rollover .It could be ready to do that now. or after a few more tests of the 20/21 area. So the bullish momentum would begin here IF we see the next follow through rally, Break above 20/21 area and make a determined push into 23/24/25/26 area. would give enough breathing room for the pullback to have a chance to turn that 21/20 shoulder zone from a resistance step to a support step, and thats how the picture would change from bearish bias to bullish bias. in this current cycle.
And another larger view of the big picture still warrants caution Even IF price rallies to 24 area because the big downwave from 31 and 28 to 18 has a 50% retrace target around 23/24/25 as a resistance zone that could also roll over and try to create the next major downwave to retest the 17 and maybe fall to lower targets.
So its all something to watch in the coming month. and while this can be the technical picture to watch for, IF the news cycle is still offering some great news potential then the upwave momentum could take over and we ought to see the higher targets hit and the 20/21 shoulder Holding easier.
AVXL chart
Nice follow through jump today
reaches the resistance target at 21/20.50
but the sell down immediately has some show of strength as well. Its 2 moves that are equally important, the rally jump but also the pullback to support. The support is at 19.50-18.50 area and needs careful watching. The support zone now needs to show strength to hold. The higher targets into the resistance zone around 22/23/24 are waiting but first comes the pullback ongoing to see where support will hold.
Colorful AVXL Fib arc chart
AVXL
Mostly for my own eyes to study. but shows the lower target zone at 15-14 and shows the resistance zone around 20-21 and the higher targets at 23-24 area. Right now that 20-21 area is resistance, a good rally to 23-24 can turn the 20 shoulder into a support step.
The key to watch now is to see what resistance looks like around 20-21 and then see if 18.50 will hold support.
It feels like a tricky time
to watch carefully the price action now, this zone of resistance and support between 17.50 and 18.75 call that the support area now, but resistance overhead is every step from 19.50 to 23. Alot of resistance at 20-21-22 area to watch. IF we get a good continuation with a renewal of bullish momentum, that takes price strongly to 23 then I'm looking to watch that 20 shoulder zone try to hold as a support. right now, its a resistance step. That would be the bullish turn around if we get the rally to 22-23 and then 20 holds as support. all this wont likely happen tomorrow but for next week ,if the rally continues.
But tricky now to watch because it could go either way up or down when the next big target gets hit at 20 area, the 50 ma might be a trigger to watch. around 21 area. and the 20 ma is happening now today.
heading into resistance cloud
yes. it has a small mountain to climb
to get back the bullish momentum I think.
but step by step, it looks like a possible beginning today.
The downwave pattern ,as often happens, has these scalops ,where the bounce rolls over and then tumbles lower. that next rollover resistance zone could happen around 20-21 (where the 50ma is).and around that Ichimoku cloud zone overhead.
resistance overhead
and this zig zag from 17.50 to 19.50 could still be a Wave 4 developing. Thats why I say the rally needs to break through 20 area and really reach the 22-23 zone.to stop being a Wave 4
@sab63...yes,Ive heard
of many you mentioned. I first learned from Prechters methods. I know he's made some errors.seems we all make errors examining Elliott wave. I like Wyckoff alot.
------------------------------------
By the looks of todays jump, (the break out move I was needing to see,we got that today) its possible that the 5 waves down has finished at the 17.50 target.[But the big picture downwave from 31 or 28 to 17.50 means a 50% retrace target is waiting around 23-24.50 area and I expect big resistance there to try and create another downwave. If that happens the support zone around 20 will become a critical shoulder to see if it holds as bullish support.when the time comes.
-------------------------------------------------------------
The math pattern I need to see for a finished wave is closer to 20.50 not ending here at 19.50. so I want to see more follow thru here to target 20-21 area.
------------------------------------------------------
The more intensive examination of the picture Ive been looking at ,I really think the 22-23 area needs to be reached for a bullish turnaround.here at 19.50 is a good start. but I might call this blast up today the subwave 3 in the pattern, a shallow pullback,thats happening now,I want to see it hold around 19,not falling all the way to 18.50 . and from 19 rally again to target the 20.50 area. would become the subwave 5 to get into that resistance zone around 20-21-22.
Todays breakout jump
breaking through the 18.50 and reaching the 19.50 target
The upward track to 30
seems possible. as you say. climbing the steps through the resistance .
Right now, IF this 17.50 does hold support, I'm wanting to see a good rally that targets at least 22 area. 23 would be stronger.
There has to be enough of a strong rally that gives it some room for the pullback to hold a support shoulder zone like 20 could become. So its a rally from 17.50 to lets say 22.50 and then pulls back to hold at 20 area.
This is a Fib arc chart to target 30. The first rally needs to reach the key 22.25-23.25 area, and hold any pullback around 20 area.
Constructing a track pattern rally to 30
Its hard to ignore
the next target zone down at 15.
I agree
IF a downwave hits a real bottom, wouldnt we expect to see a strong bounce and follow through? That has not been happening so far, coming off this 17.50 step.
I think the 16 area is
a target in play also, step by step. but not sure it would hold there. its a big shoulder zone area at 16. In the larger chart picture, 16 area has been the High. now it becomes a big support shoulder to watch. I like 16 as a target zone. but just wanna be cautious. Hard to forecast how far down this could get taken.
50% haircut yes. happens alot. Wheres the best bargain zone going to be.
Up to this point, as the downwave has been happening, the basic zone to watch has been the 22 to 17 area. its reached that low end now. So I'm watching the bounce and it hasnt been too strong so far.
Elliott waves
It looks to me like 4 waves down so far. one more to go? target 15 area?
From the 28 peak to 23, from 26 to 20 from 23 to 17.50 so far. maybe the next one is from 20 to 15. or 18.50 to 15.
resistance starts at 18.50 area. but its a larger zone ,from 18.50 to 21.50. It just has to be watched. But currently, you can see this bounce from 17.40 low is not too strong, and zig zags sideways for the past several days...that looks like a wave 4...which suggests another downwave (wave 5) to come.
Elliott Waves
Price action today
Of course some people might try to do that.
I have very few people that I follow about TA charting. I like Citrati and a few people here like Gator,Kentucky,Simon, and maybe a few others . but I do my own study and if I'm on target I find the track patterns ok.
I saw the bias looking downward lately and the chart was showing it a few days ahead of time. maybe the next several days coming, and through August its possible we can see the lower targets get reached .
We have yet to see any decent bounce off this 17.50 'bottom' and when we do see a bounce ,there is resistance starting at 18.50 area and into 19.50. while the bullish target zone is up around 24.Its a big hill to climb before the bias gets bullish, in my view.
Watching the track patterns ,not trying to make a prediction, but trying to see what the playing field is..., can it stretch down to 14 or 13? and in the upward direction can it reach 22/23/24 area as a good first wave?
Right now, with bias looking downward,it is holding the 17.50,but like a few weeks ago when it was "holding" 20, it broke down eventually, and this low at 17.40 area looks the same to me, waiting to break down.
But IF it holds support and makes a good bounce, I think it must reach 19.25 area to start looking hopeful. Failing at 18.50 resistance is a clue to the bias staying downward, as I mentioned yesterday, and that outlook remains ongoing today, in my view.
bias remains downward
but I could be proved wrong if it jumps to 19 and higher as a breakout... This 'bottom' at 17.50 needs a big bounce to 19.50 to turn bullish looking.
When I look at this chart, I'm watching for a bounce to the 18.50 area and see if it gets stuck there and struggles to go higher. thats a warning clue if that happens. Its mostly about watching the price bounce between support and resistance steps.
Thats correct.
there are 2 track patterns. Can you see the picture?
How can you tell which track will be dominant? At what point while watching the price action (5 minute chart), at what price point, what support or resistance step ... would the momentum or the balance start shifting. a pivot point to watch for. Would there be other indicators there, like the 50 and 20 ma to act as target points? Is there a resistance shoulder overhead to act as a pressure zone? and a support zone below to counter?
These are the questions to ask and the things to be watching for when you watch the intraday price action.
----------------------------------------------------------
If you know how to watch price action and see the track patterns and the key energy points like this, then you may have a chance to see the next major moves coming, maybe an hour ahead of time or a day ahead of time,maybe a week ahead of time. Maybe 10 minutes ahead of time. (watch the resistance area around 18.50-18.70) watch the support area to hold around 18...or watch it fail. and target 17. Watch to see if a rally breaks above 18.50 with some strength and targets 19.25-19.50. (that might become bullish) (stalling out at 18.50 might become bearish)
watching the track patterns
------------------------------------------------------------
looking at both directions
maybe target up to 21.50 or target down 15.50
AVXL chart