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I caught the current low with bids at 21.50
and I'll be happy to buy a little more at 18 area if it goes there.
do you think thats the way
price action works?
it could jump another 2 dollars and then pull back. it could do anything. What I chart is the mathematical formula of fibonacci and elliott wave to visualize what the pattern might look like . The other day I said we need to see a bounce at least reach 23. and we got that. now there is some breathing room on the technical chart for a pullback to hold at the 21.50 shoulder area and thats what a bullish pattern would look like. lets see if it develops that way or not. I would be happy to take a little profit at 35 when it gets there.
I look for best bargains to buy at the bottom zone, and then take some profit at the toppy zone. but these days mostly looking to buy and hold from now on. why sell any at 35 when you might get to sell at 135. But in any case, watching the patterns develop is a good way to understand what the price action is doing. Thats all I'm trying to do.
Is it possible
to see these big price swings as being like finding the attractive lower price that the big money wants to get in at? would they start buying at 28 weeks ago after a big surging rally to 31 or would they try to get the price to sell down and buy it at 20 or 21. would they think they can reverse this now and keep pushing it down to 18? I liked this 21 area to buy more. I like 18 too but step by step, its bargain shopping. I'm sorry I started a little early at 27 and 25, but I'm happy to catch this bottom at 20.50
looks good today so far
yes, that 20.50 target 20.30 got bought strong today and reaches the 23 target. I'm watching for the pullback to hold 21.50 area if it will
good bounce today
I disagree with that idea
I do both trading and long term holding, and my number 1 focus is on buying the best bargain lows I can find. and if it goes surging, try to sell a little for profit at the technical tops.
but wait, youre saying about watching the intraday everyday price action? well you have to keep an eye on the price action to see what it is doing along the track patterns to targets. Today has been looking like it wants to make a double bottom around 20.30 and it has a chance. but the key resistance it has to reach for a bullish bounce, in my view, is 23 area. If it falters around 22, we could see another downwave start hitting the teens. I'm buying small pieces along the way down. might take some small profits around 26-28 area.
But its a zone
from 22 to 17. I decided the other day to lower my first bids to 20.50 and got filled today. Looking now for some bounce to try and retest 23 and then see if 22 holds ok.
more resistance above 23 at 24 and 25 to watch carefully. it could take some time to get back into the surging 30's. if it zig zags down around 24-20-18
Listen folks,dont worry about
the AVXL pullback. this 22 area was a target to watch, and it stretches down to 17 in my view. It could hold at 22/21/20 etc. theyre all good bargain targets, 18 might be nice . buy some traders at 18 and sell em at 28.
I like that target too
on the chart pattern. not sure if in one day but the mat is looking at it. maybe close to 27.
The pullback zone to watch has been 24.50-24. as I highlighted days ago. to Hold strong. so far it shows that bounce today, looking like a jump start. the rally has to break thru resistance zones now to retest 28. and 26 area is the first.
Its possible
avxl chart
22 to 17
The Wall street Lord giveth
and taketh away.
a nice day for traders who sold some at 28 and started buying around 25 ,so far. a few lower bargains are waiting below.
so we have this latest rally wave from 23.50 to 28.25. and then a downwave from 28.25 to 24.75
nice rally today
AVXL
I'm looking at a target step 27.50
in this current pattern. 24.50 to hold support.
basic target steps here.
The peak at 31.50 to the latest Low at 23.50 gives us 27.50 as a target midpoint.That big downwave from 31.50 to 22.70 looks a bit excessive, and so these secondary lows now might be something to examine.
27.50 and 28.40 could be the zone
so where to next...
If we get great news at any time... no reason to think it wouldnt surge back up to 30 dollars again.and if its really good, could refocus on those higher targets from the previous rally blast that though it stopped at 31.50, had technical targets at 35 area and 45 area.
I wouldnt want to start guessing yet about that kind of rally, because what we have been watching for a few days now, is the pullback and the first stretch of rally, in a different zone, from 22.70 to 25.70/26..area and the pullback that has held so far at 24, right on track so far. that pattern is still playing out with a resistance step around 25 now to watch out for . we could see a move upward of 3 to 5 dollars or a move down of 3 to 5 dollars. 24 to 27/28 or 25 down to 22/21/20 as the patterns havent given their clue yet when they sit in a balance zone waiting, and this 25 area is one of those balance areas that has to break in some direction. Its technically looking bullish to see 24 holding. but the rally math target was reached at 26 and the sell off shows this to be correct. These targets in both directions can be seen days ahead of time, once a bottom happens and once a top happens, you just do the Fib math and see what things look like. When the price action is running along technical tracks like this, the Fib math seems to offer pretty good clues to watch for.
my post from yesterday
played out on that track pattern today.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=164769230
the morning pullback held
at 24. and rallied higher.
following along the technical track pattern I showed. I still want to see that 24.00-24.50 area hold strong . Targets higher than 25.75 are waiting but this toppy area now, and any steps higher,around 26 area, can have some resistance to it. 26.50/ 27, all technical resistance areas. Its nice to see the price climb the steps upward, but I find often the technical happiness can be more important when you look below and see the support pullback targets Hold strong, like today.
ITRM Fib chart
just something to look at . the initial plunge did not hold exactly...as price falls a smiggen lower now to 1.30. lower targets look magnetic. 1.20/1.10/1.00 bottom at 93? or even lower? ot it might hold here at 1.25 area. Overhead resistance looks appropriate where the bounce stopped at 1.60. also 1.80 looks like a key spot. 50% haircuts have happened from the top zone to the current price. I can see 1.80 to 90 or 2.00 to 1.00 also in the pattern. where you decide the top should be measured from. I think closer to 2.00-2.12-2.22 area.
ITRM
On the technical chart
the rally from 22.70 to 25.15 so far is ok, and could run into higher target resistance before a pullback, but its a resistance overhead that could retest the 23-22 area . The support step I want to see holding now is closer to 24, and rally target at 26 area would look better in this technical picture.
Price showed support holding at 22.75 area and then showed a climb to test 25 area. now comes the test in the middle for support to hold around 24.00-23.75 area.
AVXL 60 minute candles
looking at the AVXL 1 hr chart
The daily isnt really showing me too much.
I dont look at the hourly too much like others do but to my eyes, it is crafting this kind of track pattern .
We could see a pop and drop tomorrow, testing 25.50-26 area as a decent rally target from the 22.70 low. but the downwave pattern might be still ongoing, and if it is, I'd be looking for another retest of the 22 area.
Contrasting that to a bullish view, IF the rally would continue higher, from the target zone 25.50-26.00 area I would expect to see the pullback Hold in the 24 area and bounce back into the rally pattern.
Targets at 26.00-26.50-27 area is my finish target zone for this kind of technical rally move. IF big buying news driven momentum kicks in again,then the 28 target could be reached.
But this technical chart I'm calling this a technical picture here. the news driven momentum rally could recover 30 before its done. but this technical picture that has developed like this so far has this kind of track pattern, much milder, and cautiously climbing to the resistance targets at 25.50-26 area, and then could get hammered back down.
22 could be a nice Bottom base, it is a big left shoulder zone. that was a top at first and fell down to 17. now that 22 area is a support step shoulder, which is one of those energy places that holds some force to it. Not invincible,but a solid target to watch for holding strength. Below 22, all the 1 dollar steps have magnetic energy 21/20/19/18.
But right now, the pattern is looking to see if 24 will hold as a strong support step and bounce up to continue the rally .
The action to watch now is the resistance targets overhead 25.50 area 26 area, and then the pullback support steps around 24.00-23.80
AVXL 60 minute candles
Chuck, I'm interested in what your indicators are showing for the shorter time frames like this. are we looking at resistance overhead around 25.00-25.50?
and the follow up chart AVXL
it did rally thru 25 but not by any substancial amount. and then pulled back stronger. IF the rally target peaks at this 25.16, it will need to hold the support and continue rally to 25.50-26.00 and higher to recover any of the big rally strength. the mid point 50% fib target for a retrace up would be the 27 area, so to see rally start floundering around 26 could become a clue for another downwave to come.
The recovery will need several subwaves to get there, a surge to 26 could pullback and then hold 24.50, then 27 could pullback and hold 25.60 , etc until the intended target is reached, but the half way target is 27. and 28 is a big resistance step. The grande pie in the sky is a news blasted rocket back to 35 and then on to 45... but for now...we are watching the pullback and the first effort to bounce off the 22.70 Low. Its a technical picture of watching the steps up and down for clues, technical price action so far.
AVXL tries to target 25 area
Ive traded many stocks that got a rejection letter from the FDA, for whatever reason, and the stock prices tanked just like this and kept tanking for many weeks to hit lows nobody thought could happen.,with a long time passing before they managed to get their act together and fix what was wrong and recover. sometimes sooner, but maybe a year goes by. I'm prepared to wait for the next shoe to drop and if I guess right might get to buy bargains at 70 or 60 cents.
good trading to you.
How low can it fall now
1 dollar? .75 cents? surely not all the way back to 50 cents...
200ma around 1.10 ?
The fib math double was 90 to 180
2,50 peak looks excessive to me. and today it completes almost a 50% haircut . I have no idea just guessing. but maybe bargains wait below 1 dollar now.
oopsie daisy... ITRM
I placed a stink bid yesterday way down at 1.45 area and it got filled at 1.41, but this news worries me (unless I'm misunderstanding it) so I sold it after hours and got the money back.
new stink bid at 75 cents.
some pretty Fib arcs
AVXL
If you had studied Fibonacci
for 10 years like I have, you would understand it better. Theres a reason why its called a "sacred math".
and yes, there are many different tools and indictors to use that can work to show clues. I also like the Ichimoku cloud tool.
That misrepresents what I said
I believe those who follow my charts have a better understanding of how I analyze a chart.
good luck to you.
Already we see 5 dollar swings
and 6 dollars from top to bottom pivots. we could see another one from 24.50 to 19.50 and in this rally pattern we could see this 22.70 bottom target 26.70 . big swings for AVXL now.
every day intraday we are seeing 'little' moves that are 2 dollars. then bounce 1 dollar then down 2 dollars. It could do that now in the upward direction. Lots of high drama now. Todays price action has been interesting to watch.
and this isnt even talking about the influence of news. Is there news still happening and anticipated this week?
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I wish I had all the knowledge about how big money moves the price, or how shares become available. or what influence options has or not.
or whether all the trading is just dont on high frequency super computers and the targets are all set in the program.
News does have a big influence we all understand that. but then the money powers and their HFT computer systems are still able to slam the rallies right back down. SO ,for me, all I can do is plot the charts with some of the math I think the computer systems look at. and trade along with it.
AVXL price action and math targets
Todays price action is full of drama
the upward climb today, right now, and setting up for more drama tomorrow, is at a critical point in the pattern. resistance now, and any struggle to climb here from 24.40-24.80 is a danger zone for the selling to try and take it down again. The chart picture I drew has been very sharp in spotlighting the zones and the target points, and you can see the places of support/resistance that are set,by the math pattern,and its playing out right on track. and in this regard its high drama now to see what happens next. I'm looking at support zone needing to hold 23.50 area for this upwave to show strength. I dont want to see it fall to 23 but I understand what youre saying. 23 is a major critical point. but in the current rally, I'm wanting to see the rally break above that 24.75 resistance and show the drive to hit 25. the real true rally recovery needs to hit the next levels above that resistance and give us 25.50 area. There is a positive looking math target now at 26.70 area, if all goes well. then we would be looking for a pullback that sets a support level at the key 24.70 level, what is resistance now, to become support later.
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IF the powers intend to drive it lower for better bargains,I can deal with that, happy to buy at 20 or 19 if it goes there, but the current price action bouncing off the 22.70 "bottom" is developing these targets on the math chart. 23.50 support to hold and 25.50 target to reach. for the current wave. if it shoots above 25.50 all te better, but if it falters and fails here at 24.50/24.70 is a sign of bearish bias ongoing, Unless the 23.50 holds strong in spite of it. This price action battle today has become high drama to watch for the TA people who can see what its doing.
The battlefield drama today
and part of why the bias could still be looking downward is that this zig zag sideways pattern we've had for 2 days is what Elliott Wave calls a 'wave 4' and it suggests another downwave (wave 5) to complete the finish downwave. maybe a target zone around 20 area. so it was something to anticipate while watching todays price struggle, but now the late day rally climb is trying to make us think that the move wants to break through the resistance and become a bullish rally . target area 25.50
but its not finished yet. bearish target failure area below 25.maybe 24.80/24.65,just overhead. Bullish action would continue marching to and through 5 dollars.
showing weakness today so far
IF the 22.75 would become a finished Bottom, we need to see a better rally than this. This is looking like a zig zag /wave 4, poised to fail around 24.00-24.70 and start the next downwave.
The whole target zone 22-17 is waiting if it happens.
AVXL from 22.70/22.80 current low
as a "Bottom" if this holds ok, and rallies, this 1 dollar move from the bottom,we see so far has easy fib math to measure. the target about 1.60 higher. shows the target zone around 25.45 area to watch. Its a resistance zone on the chart. and rallies are determined to climb back up the same steps it fell down from. The point of showing this chart as a Fib chart is that I need to see the rally bounce strong enough to reach this target zone before it finishes. in contrast , a failure at 24.50/25 would suggest more bias toward continued downwave. These big moves up and down have been surges of 2 and 3 dollars at a time, to 5 dollar conclusions. moves of 1 dollar is small stuff now. From a 22.75 bottom to 25 is 2.25, as a minimum. Its a map of math targets to watch but the strength of recovery is a clue to suggest that the current low, at 22.75 step, might hold. odds would suggest, the stronger the bounce the better chance to hold the pullback. a good support step for that pullback to come in a pattern, would be the 24.50 area. so the development would take shape ok like this. a rally from 22.75 to 25.50 and a 1 dollar pullback to hold the shoulder at 24.50 area
A weak rally that fails at 24.95 would be a warning sign for another downwave. so in the big picture a good rally here to 26 is much safer than 25.
Looking below, that big zone 22-17 is a downwave target zone in play if there is another drop coming.
IS 22.75 going to be a solid bottom
I'm watching that zone 22-17
18 was a very magnetic target in all the rallies to 28+
Its such a big zone to watch now, I'm stuck with guessing. There are Fib retrace targets at the expected places but all I can do is guess at the moment. Ive been buying small pieces at most every dollar step down. very small pieces for me.
AVXL filling gaps are one of those things
that may be a big clue,but somehow I've never felt 'Gap fills' are all that critical. But definitely represent a zone to watch, and these days now AVXL's Gap zones are big zones. Ive got a few other things I look at for clues. with my Fib/EWave charts. and much of it revolves around
steps of support and resistance. the pivot point spots, but I agree the gap fills are a clue to notice.
Looks like we are seeing patterns now of 2 dollar moves down. 1.70-2.00-2.50 down in these scalloping waves.
Resistance steps overhead are visible.
In a recovery bounce from this latest pivot low 22.75 area needs to reach 25.50 area and then pullback hold at 24.00-23.40) support steps, a support shoulder zone there.
In the technical track picture Ive drawn, its based on the bottom holding at 22.70
Watching for finished bottoms
But resistance around 24 to 24.50 area could send the next downwave into action, for lower targets like 22.50-21.50 area. in the AVXL bleeding down game.
From time to time this issue
comes up, at times like this, for the last 10 years Ive been watching it here, and at other forums in following baby biotech stocks... its always those outsiders, the ones that pose a threat to BP, with breakthrough technology. Its treated like the enemy ,probably because it is a real threat to the big pharma system. wall street,the FDA and BP are all on the same team. Some here have argued that there is no conspiracy like that. many feel there is a suppression/manipulation game, and I've come to say that the MMs and big wall street money does manipulate the price anywhere they want it to go.
Investors are ok those who bought their core at the bottom below 4 dollars. But the traders have a lot of burn marks on their portfolio body, like today, and the lesson that really is hard to learn, is to take some profit at the extreme tops. and look to rebuy the best bargain Lows, for the trading shares.
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My wife has made much progress in her understanding of AVXL. the other day I said...Honey look at this, it went up 100 thousand dollars. and she said oh, thats very nice. and today I said, it went down 100 thousand, and she said..."well,it goes up and it goes down."
4 years ago she would have yelled..."Are you sure you know what youre doing ?!"
Looking for the pullback zone/chart
riding the AVXL rollercoaster.
at least we know where the top was. for the moment. now its bottom fishing for a while.
assorted resistance steps overhead to watch and support targets below to watch. and more patience to endure in the trading game. while the science moves successfully forward. but the trading game is this brutal. like it always is.
Thanks c-b-b for your thoughts
So many angles to the story going forward that could affect the eventual share price. as you say, this is one thing to think about.
Looking at the new chart picture. I stretch the conventional boundaries in chart drawing with the Fib tools, is strange looking enough, but on a basic level easier to see, the time we were dealing with a 2 dollar Bottom seems gone now. maybe now the 10 dollar Bottom is gone as well. So one of the recent charts I drew is setting the bottom base along the 14-17 area. that shoulder zone around 16, I agree with you, has to still be considered in play. But with the momentum we have going, I'm finding it hard to expect even 20 or 18 at the moment. I bought a little the other day at 30, and my next bids are around 28, this looks like it still could move stronger upward to that 36 target zone. and above that the 40 and 45. We have seen 5 dollar swings at the top zone. so its tricky. and I'm writing all this before I even looked at todays market. I should go look first . hold on,BRB.
OOPS,party's over chart
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and my bids got filled too high now at 28. The upward targets at 35 and 45 are still on the forecast, but when the wave pattern is done its done, for now, this plunge, 4 or 5 dollars, like I said, we get these 5 dollar moves are possible. I didnt think it would do this today. Target at 25 gets tested. now 26-28 is resistance zone to watch. The whole picture can be measured further now, from 31.50/30.50/29.50, see all those failure peaks at the 50 cent theme, and todays plunge to 25.50. (math can be so much fun. )
The support zone 26-22 now. to watch.
In the big rally, 27.14 was the latest support pivot. now turned to dust.
So this is how the wall street trading game goes. just with bigger numbers now.
and like I have said many times in describing charts (which people like to laugh at ) is that at Any of the key support stations,(26-25-24-23-22) price could hold here and rally back up, or it could find a lower target.
Maybe this was the intuitive reason why I drew that chart last night about the old rally blast in 2015. That collapse went down 80% from its top. I dont think we would see anything like that now. So far, this drop is 6 dollars from the top, whats that...20%
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So is 25 a bargain now? I was willing to buy at 28. and now feel that was failing to see that even with news momentum, somebody has the ability to collapse the chart 5 dollars and it happened today. it can happen again. 26 to 21? 27 to 22?
The old pivots from this rally are sitting at 24 and 22.80. below that is the Range zone from 22 to 17.
The big rally peaked at 31.50, now it looks like bottom fishing time for AVXL. and do we need to see that playing field as 25 to 17? or 16 as you said. Thats now become a zone to watch for a while (25-16)
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Some snide person is going to ask the board..."How's that millionairre club going, today ..." LOL its all ok.
A look back at the past
Maybe for no good reason, but I wanted to make some technical sense of these kind of chart shattering moves.They change the cycle,and especially when news driven. But still,even in these giant surges, the price action does follow math patterns,and the targets that get reached are math targets. Target zones to watch for resistance and support to develop.
I guess its safe to say that This first major surge,was a hyper bubble,to 14 and I remember vividly how I was almost screaming danger warnings at people to be careful, when it surged above 10 on to 13 and then the fateful day at the 14.84 peak.
Its safe to say back then was very early compared to the much more grown up Anavex that we see now. So it wasnt wrong back then to call this rocket rally a pump and dump, or some other kind of wall street game that was one of the great shocking sufferings for investors and traders to watch as the euphoria at 14 quickly became dismay when the collapse finally stopped around 3 dollars. and from there, the price action games continued up to peak around 8 dollars, and then wallowed more down in the 3's and 2's for several years. more peaks around 6 dollars but the downward collapses back to 3 and 2 area and finally to a freakish Bottom at 1.25 a few years later.
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All through this downward Bottom zone period, I along with most folks here, never lost faith in Anavex. We grew very impatient and frustrated often,having to wait several years for the kind of success we are witnessing now.
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I dont think I'm trying to find any moral to the story, except I have much more confidence in the science now, but that shocking dismay of a pullback collapse, was a burn that doesnt mend easily.
I became a very cautious investor/trader from this point on.It was actually the second collapse I rode thru. Also the one in 2011.
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Recently we saw another rocket blast from 5.50 area to 28. which then was collapsed back down to 11. then we saw a zig zag Range pattern this year going from 11 to 16 and back down (11/10)
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and now we see the latest rocket blast from 10 to 28 and now 31, and the current chart math patterns are showing me targets at 32-36 area and then 45 area.
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I'm as excited as everyone else, but I cant get rid of my ingrained technical caution. There are pullback targets from 28 to 18.
BUT the current great news cycle is supposed to give us a very trustworthy support strength this time, like it didnt do the previous times. This time should be different. The support zones should hold. and maybe finally the old reliable AVXL wall street slam down bleed down collapse to ridiculous low bottoms, will be a game they cant play anymore like they used to.
AVXL 2015 chart
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Thats a great post and list.
Congratulations to everyone.
Could AVXL surge to 35 and then 45 in this cycle
I still like the pullback target zone 24-22-20 area and all the steps in that zone, but whether it does or doesnt retest bargain dips to buy, the Fib math is starting to show the next major target zones around (32-36) and then another one around 45.
Rallies to 35 and 45
I wouldnt mind a dip to buy first.
Thanks RS
Jimmy, do you have any interest in or
opinion of ANVS ?