Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Okay Jelly, you're down for $75,000. I think Shore is tabulating the estimates, though. I'll update the Excel numbers if there are 5 more estimates before the deadline.
Not long ago I thought I saw last quarter revenue of $0.1 million on Drop's "Financials" section on Google Finance. The section is no longer there, or it could have been my imagination.
According to collective reasoning, revenue should be around:
1. $331,666.67 or
2. $112,500 or
3. $222,083.333 (the average of 1 and 2).
-------------------------------------------
1. $331,666.67 is the mean of all 15 estimates.
2. $112,500 is the mean with the $770,000 estimate not factored in because it deviates too far from all the estimates.
2. The average of 1 and 2.
Anywhere from $112,500 to $331,666. At least it's something to work on. lol.
Yes! Bulk packaging is a brilliant idea.
While our resident naysayer's been preaching the gloom and doom sermon, I've made a 100% return on Drop. I'm not selling a share until a pharma news or $1.00+, whichever comes first.
My impression at this point, and I'm often wrong, is that management is trying to position the Drops as product to enhance athletic performance--a niche market. Whereby it should position itself as a direct competitor to 5hr Energy and use its star athletes to move the product.
But there's also EnerJel and possible pharma licensing deals. Lots to look forward to even if the Drops don't do as well as expected.
It's interesting how investors and traders view the same company differently. In the case of the Drops, investors examine ways to improve the company's bottom line--packaging, distribution, ways to cut costs, etc. On the other hand, traders tend to discuss the activity of market makers, support levels, level II prices, etc.
It's all good as long as we make money. You can make money in a bull market, you can make money in a bear market, but you can't make money if you're not in the market.
Unless management gets the Drops in 7-11 and other convenience stores, we'll remain a niche player. Tiger Woods has over 2.7 million followers and tweeted about the Drops. It didn't make a big difference in sales because energy drink is not something a typical energy drink consumer purchases online. Consumers don't, or do very little, comparison shopping for products under $20. For an energy drink they frequent their regular gas station/convenience store and are presented with about 5 choices. If the Drops aren't on the shelves, they're not going to drive to Dicks', CVS or Walgreens. They want that energy boost NOW to study for their exams, finish their shift, pull an all nighter, get through the day...NOW!
We don't need to reinvent the wheel. Study what 5hr is doing right (getting their product at point of sales at 7-11, etc.) and use our advantages (more effective delivery method, star athlete endorsers).
Also, use a "grab and go" packaging. single-side cardboard that is about 50% larger than a standard business card, Drops capsulated in plastic with athlete pictures on front, instructions on back, twist bottom and drop in mouth. Grab and go small packaging!
The energy drink market is gigantic and expanding. Even if Fuse gets a small percentage of the market we're in good shape. Consider 5hr Energy which did about $600 million in revenue. It's already profitable but it is raising $450 million to finance expansion. This tells us the potential of the Drops if management can get the right distribution deals in place.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/dalebuss/2012/07/22/5-hour-energy-places-400mm-in-notes-to-fund-major-expansion/
I'm long and hope I'm wrong about this, but it appears that MP's management is clueless when it comes to running a business. Why would anyone expand into another business when they're losing crazy money on their existing business. This miss fit wear doesn't make much sense.
First, we build a lemonade stand to sell lemon juice. Then we use the profit from our lemonade operation to make orange juice. See if we make a profit first on the orange juice before we sell carrot juice, on and on.
Not, we lose crazy money on lemon juice, then sell orange juice to lose more money...
Learn how to crawl before you can walk, MP management.
Muscle Pharm is a very dominant company in its sector. However, it's not profitable nor self-sustaining. Thus, a low market valuation.
I think the concept of COGS (cost of goods sold) is alien to MP's management. I'm in deep at this point so all I can do is hope that someday a light bulb will go off and management will realize it's more attractive to be a $50 million revenue company and make $8 million profit than a $100 million company, lose $30 million, and pawn the company's future to whoever's willing to lend them money.
The way MP's conducting business reminds me of many dotcom companies in the heydays of 2000, especially webvan. They were wildly expanding from market to market without making a profit in a single market first.
IMO, there are only two events that will bail longs out: In 2013, MP's revenue is around $100 million and it's profitable. Or it gets bought out.
The market rewards profitable companies that hold dominant positions. It has to be self-sustaining and profitable and not necessary excessively profitable. Look at Amazon.com; although its margins are razor thin and its PE is 3,300+, the market rewards it a high valuation because its dominant in its industry.
My impression of Muscle Pharm is that it's very dominant in its sector but it's not yet profitable or self-sustaining. At this point, all I'm betting on is that it will turn a profit in the next 12 months and become a self-sustaining growth machine. And from what I understand from this board, the current executives may not have the experience to take MP to the next level.
Even in 12 months, we may need be concerned about the dilution factor. This MP mistress is getting a bit expensive for me.
IMO,regardless of the company's fundamentals, if we do 3 to 9% a day until $.40 and then news hits, we could see $1.00+. If there's a barrage of good news, then possibly $2.00+.
The Times Square advertisement is a big deal. However, for a $2.99 or $8.99 product people will not go out of their way to purchase the Drops. When they see Tiger Woods and other star athletes using them, then run down to their corner store and the Drops aren't there, the vast majority of people won't drive somewhere else to look for them. They're more likely to pick up another energy product if the Drops aren't at their local gas station/corner store.
That's why I feel product placement is more important at this stage of the company than more endorsers. We haven't even used all the ones we have so I shudder every time Fuse signs another star(DILUTION to pay for them).
Shore, I do see the validity in your statements. However, it's a reality check for those clamoring that Fuse will eventually do the same numbers as 5hr Energy. It isn't going to happen unless the
Drops are in every 7-11 and other convenience stores.
The typical energy drink purchasers are:
1. Students. They're not going to go online, order and wait a few days to get their energy drink. They want it NOW.
2. Shift workers. They need to stay up and finish their work. They want it NOW.
3. Caffeine addicts/coffee drinkers. They want their energy fix NOW.
The more places the Drops are available at, the better. Dicks', CVS, Walgreens are fine places to sell the drops. But at $2.99 and $8.99, I'd be surprised to see $10 million in revenue.
The Fuse team has done a superb job to this point. But at this point on it's misguided and even a waste of resources to sign any more athletes, sponsors, etc. They need to work on distribution and get the Drops into the hands of as many consumers as possible.
It all depends where Fuse wants to take the Drops. They can keep it to a niche market or expand their distribution. If you objectively analyze the profile of the typical energy drink user, then you'll understand where I'm coming from. They want their fix NOW!
Enough with the big name athletes and more attention on getting the products into the hands of larger base of consumers. That's all I'm saying--if you want to do 5hr numbers, then you'll got to b available at 5hr locations because of the energy drink user profile. They want it NOW. lol.
I think Fuse is a $5 stock if they ever release news that the drops are available at 7-11. I would rather have the drops be available at 7-11 than any pharma deal.
Long Fuse.
FUSE will dominate the energy drink market if or when its products are available at every 7-11 and other convenience stores, preferably at point of sales. Like 5hr Energy, Fuse's products should be available at tens of thousands of stores and not just the sports stores like Dicks' (400+). At $2.99 and $8.99, we need to sell a cargo ship load of products to reach $100 million in revenue.
I hope the company is working on this distribution potential.
Long Fuse.
This issue has been brought up a few times already, but I'll reiterate. If FUSE wants to do 5hr Energy numbers then the Drops should be available at point of sales at 7-11 and other convenience stores and gas stations. Otherwise, the Drops will be confined to a niche market for athletes.
Long FUSE.
Functionality of the drop product: Open box package, open drop bottle, drop in mouth.
5hr energy: twist top, gulp down.
Is the box really necessary? It sure looks nice, though.
The drop packaged inside the box looks nice but it may be a bit excessive. With 5hr energy, you just twist the top and gulp it down. Maybe FUSE should make it more convenient--twist the bottom and drop it in?
Just my opinion.
The fact that they intend to re-list is important. But what's more important is the final audited financials for the last two years. When those are released, the stock will see more action. Hopefully, up.
Muscle Pharm has everything except the one metric that counts most. High revenue, high growth, high profile athlete endorsements, top selling products in their categories. But no profit.
High revenue, high growth, and no profit:
1. Takeover target. More mature company will implement cost-cutting procedures. Good for some longs, depending on our entry point.
2. Continues to be the dilution machine in order to fund operations. Worst case scenario and not good for longs, especially for those who got in early.
High revenue, high grow, and profit:
1. Self-sustaining company and stock will eventually take off to reflect that. Good for longs.
2. Takeover target at a premium price. Good for longs.
Muscle Pharm has to reduce its cost of goods sold (cogs) and/or cut operating cost. We know the revenue is there.
Even with 2013 revenue of 100M, it'd be hard to justify the stock at over $10 if it continues to lose money. If the company is profitable I could see the market cap. at $75+ million. If it's profitable 2 sequential quarters, easily $100+ million market cap.
I don't know who the auditors are. If anyone does, please let the board know.
My wild guess is revenue of USD 44 million for fiscal 2012 after audited financials. Again, wild guess.
I'm thinking about investing in BFAR. Is here an estimate as to what the annual revenue will be after the audit?