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Clay,
What you did as a technician may be perfect, but my critcism of technicians is a failure to look at the news. PCTL announced a contract with the U.K. that should be worth billions after the close. This stock will gap tomorrow, and it could be to 5 to 10 times what it's currently selling for, and that would be a bargain. I'd like to hear your estimate after reading about it, but I believe we'll have a gap that will never fill.
Gary
I believe we'll see income growth for the foreseeable future, the U.K. is far from the last country to purchase for their healthcare system, they're the first. I don't know that the U.S. would ever do a centralized purchase, but Canada certainly could, the same can be said of every country where healthcare is provided by the govt.
Dream big about tomorrow, I believe anyone who puts in a sell order in advance of the start of trading is cheating themselves out of a bigger gain, and regardless of the high tomorrow, at the end of this year it will be dramatically higher than that.
The fewer investors willing to sell their shares at any price they might see tomorrow, or through the end of the year, the higher it will go. I certainly can't say how high it could go tomorrow, but I truly believe that dollars are not out of the question. In fact, if anyone could accurately anticipate the earnings from the announcement today, disregarding all the other work the company is doing, I believe a double digit billion dollar market cap would be justified. How quickly can it come> I believe there are Institutions that recognize the value of the contract with the U.K. and they'll be stepping in to buy shares that are priced substantially below the price they can see it rising to.
Don't let them steal you shares cheaply.
Gary
Is it true that their are thousands of institutions, or is this a buy from the Govt. which provides the healthcare. I'm asking, I'm not certain about their system, but I believe this was a Govt. decision to put our products everywhere throughout the healthcare system. Planning for the installations may come from a variety of places, but I believe the purchase will come from the British Govt. I would suspect it will be a purchase rather than a lease.
As always, JMHO.
Gary
I agree, that's what happens when used in CLI, much the same thing is happening here. Again, I don't see that as fighting the coronavirus directly, but it's fixing what it harms, and who know, it might actually fix something that was a problem even before the coronavirus hit.
We still know so little about stem cells. The annual BMT reunion at City of Hope has been delayed this year, I believe this would be there 44th year, if I remember correctly. They still call it BMT because it all started with transplanting bone marrow, and at that time they didn't realize there were stem cells in that marrow, and that's what was doing the job. Many people continue to think about bone marrow transplants, but few if any of the time do they need the marrow anymore. Adult stem cells can be harvested out of the marrow, but it's more painful, but faster. They can also stimulate their production of the stem cells and remove them from the blood in a manner similar to doing leukapheresis, or collecting blood plasma.
I believe we're just touching the possibilities with placental cells, I suspect that ten years from now we'll be amazed at all the applications, I hope to be around to see it.
Gary
Please correct me if someone thinks I have this wrong. It's my belief that our technology will clear up the pneumonia caused by coronavirus, and that's what threatens most peoples life. The disease itself will run it's course. It may be near over by the time the pneumonia is cured, but perhaps not, the main thing is you'd be through the worst of it.
Chris Come has been describing how it's effecting him many nights, I believe it's pretty clear he's better, but far from perfect, and his Doctors seem to be saying he may be tested and found clear of the disease, yet he may have negative side effects for weeks. Now his wife has come down with it, and a 17 year old daughter is supporting the family. This is a nasty disease, I'm sure many will help without making contact, but I think it's clear that someone outside who went into the house could infect themselves without contacting anyone that has it. Hopefully the kids won't acquire it, but it's not because they have not been exposed.
If we can take care of the pneumonia, I'd bet that we'd prevent about 90% of all the deaths from it. When a body is substantially weakened, people with things like heart disease could certainly be threatened by it with, or without the pneumonia.
Gary
If they have something that requires a PR they'll do so before the meeting starts. Otherwise they will PR the results of the meeting, and they may discuss any issues brought up during the meeting.
That said, there is no reason to PR anything with regards to scheduling of trial events, etc. TLD is itself an announcement, you don't need a PR to say you're unblinding the trial, gathering data, etc though it's possible they'll announce it at the AM and discuss it in the post AM release. What the company does, or says is largely up to the company.
A lot of people believe that things like unblinding a trial are material events. If they had a partner in the trial, and if that partner set a milestone with a payment for unblinding, than it would be a material event, since it had cash value. In some cases, even cash doesn't constitute being a material event if it's below some threshold value established by the company. In another company, $1 million wasn't determined to be material.
Perhaps we'll see a PR tomorrow, but I'm not counting on it. I just hope that the meeting goes smoothly and that all who wish to log in can. The thing that's lacking in this sort of virtual meeting is the ability to speak directly with key people, usually after the formal meeting.
Gary
I certainly agree that we'll gap, but I'd also be very surprised if we trade at the initiation of trading, as I believe there will be an imbalance of orders and trading will be halted until the MM's figure it out. I believe any current investor looking to get out shouldn't price their shares under $.50 cents, and that would be a bargain.
Look at the announcement, it's not just hospitals, it's all sorts of healthcare facilities, thousands of them that will be equipped with some sort of PCTL equipment. Frankly it's not clear to me that they'll lease or purchase, but of hand I think it's purchase. Clearly smaller facilities won't have large units, some may share in some way, but clearly the British want to eliminate the risk of infections virtually everywhere throughout their healthcare system.
I believe they're looking to spend billions, possibly double digit billions on all this equipment, but I certainly welcome someone more knowledgeable than me about pricing of the equipment to estimate what this should be worth. I frankly thought this could be huge when I learned they were trying it in their hospitals, it's grown dramatically from there with the expansion into all their healthcare facilities. Can you imagine how big this could get if other nations with government provided healthcare, like much of the rest of the major industrial nations decide to do what the British are doing.
Gary
We know that over 50 have lived beyond 5 years as Dr. Liau gave us a median that was growing for the top 100 that was near 60 months some time ago. I have no idea if it's up to over 70 months by now, or not, but a top 100 that's median is over 60 months is telling everyone that over 5o people in the trial have lived that long, or longer. Now even the last patient to enter the trial is approaching 60 months, it won't be that long before all remaining alive have been so for over 60 months. I don't know how many people that may be, but believe it could be over 50, so that median for the top 100 will just keep going up.
Gary
I think we need to take a closer look at what we're looking to do vs. what most other companies are going for. Most companies are trying to produce benefits in coronavirus, a degree of success could result in substantial use of their drugs.
PSTI on the other hand is going after pneumonia, essentially it means that the other companies products were not effective in preventing it. If we're successful in pneumonia, we'll greatly reduce the threat posed by coronavirus, but we'll not be preventing people from being infected with it.
More importantly, pneumonia won't go away when coronavirus is eliminated with a vaccine, it's the primary killer of people with all sorts of diseases who've been weakened by everything from flu and cold to cancer.
Gary
The way it's dropped this afternoon I might guess that someone passed on. All in the small trial were exceptionally sick, and perhaps there is another reason, or the MM's may be playing games. Let's see if there is more news later today, or before the open tomorrow.
Gary
I suspect that the stock won't open on an imbalance in orders tomorrow morning, no telling how long it will take before an opening price is determined. I wouldn't be surprised by anything, including well over a dollar, the U.K. contract is worth billions. What's a fair market cap for a company bringing in billions.
Now ask yourself, what happens if much of the world takes the British lead and buys in over time. I believe it will happen over the next several years.
Gary
Cherry,
When we discussed a dollar or more by the end of the year, it was before this news. I believe if properly valued, this will bring the company billions by the time all U.K. facilities are fully equipped with our products. If properly evaluated, this could be selling for dollars before the end of this month.
I don't believe the British action will go unnoticed around the world. I believe we'll start seeing orders from everywhere, and we may license others to build our equipment, if we don't expand dramatically ourselves.
With the Institutional investors understanding the value of this agreement, I just can't see the market cap of the company not being well into the billions before the end of this year.
Gary
Yes he did sound positive, but he went out of his way to say it didn't apply to the quarter. I think he knew the quarter would still be down, at least a bit.
With all that's been said recently, I've got to believe that the current quarter and beyond will be cash positive, and for the foreseeable future, each succeeding quarter will be better than the last one.
Gary
Yes he did sound positive, but he went out of his way to say it didn't apply to the quarter. I think he knew the quarter would still be down, at least a bit.
With all that's been said recently, I've got to believe that the current quarter and beyond will be cash positive, and for the foreseeable future, each succeeding quarter will be better than the last one.
Gary
In reality, I can't think of a sport where you can play in a more isolated way. As long as you maintain margins entering and leaving the court, people could be permitted to play tennis. Golf is another game where people can easily maintain a 6 foot or greater distance. Of course no audiences could be permitted for tournament play, but permitting people to play shouldn't be a problem.
I believe that as they begin to think these things out, they'll be able to open up such activities, but scheduling and payment will clearly be done online, just show up at the proper time and play.
Besides walking while maintaining distance, if they really think things through I believe there are other activities they could permit. Maintaining sanitary conditions would be demanded, but I believe that over time they'll find ways of safely opening up many things. I suspect that we'll be using masks until a vaccine is available in many activities, and frankly I don't know if a party with lots of people will be possible for some time, even if all are friends who believe they're fine. Perhaps the worst problem with coronavirus is that you can spread it without ever feeling sick, and you may never get sick, but someone who gets it from you could die. It's a nasty disease.
Gary
Thanks Lorie,
Many years ago I used to love seeing two gentlemen in their 90's playing tennis, they rarely needed to take more than one step. When they played much younger people they put the ball within about a yard or either corner of the court, they could run them ragged, but of course they'd only go after their opponents returns if they didn't need to take more than 2 steps to do so. It's a game I haven't played for years, but thinking of it makes me want to give it another try.
Gary
I believe the last time we had a firm number of surviving patients all were alive at roughly 36 months, or more. I know we've been estimating that somewhere between 50 and 70 of them remain alive, but I'd not be at all surprised if very few of those who made it to 36 months or more have passed on since than. I believe that the count may just be high in the 70's. Remember when our latest patient to enter the trial was 36 months in, far more were 60 or more months in, and I have a feeling that if you make it 5 years, your odds of reaching 10 years are really pretty good.
Old age eventually takes us all, but as a senior today, we're doing things that our parents would never have dreamed of doing at our age. I suspect the same will be true for my kids when they've achieve my age.
I frankly can't say I'll get back to skiing after tangling with both leukemia and back problems, but I've certainly seen many on the mountain having a great time in their 80's. I've know boaters actively sailing into their 90's. Coronavirus may have us isolating, but this too will pass and I look forward to when it does.
Gary
I'm not an expert, but as I understand it, in fracking much of the water pumped in returned in a polluted form that must be disposed of. With PCTL's products and procedures this water may be reprocessed and reused. Costs are greatly reduced as far less fresh water is needed, and disposal costs are dramatically reduced. That's my laymen's view of what's happening, someone may be able to provide a better technical discussion of what happens.
Gary
Cherry,
I agree that they're bringing in substantial funds, but only March was said to be profitable in the just completed quarter. It sounded like overall the quarter would be down, though dramatically better than the past. When they report this quarter, probably in August, we should see some substantial profits reported for the quarter. Perhaps we'll also learn that they've paid off some of the funds they previously borrowed.
It's my belief that by the end of the year they'll be very profitable, and we'll be trading in dollars, not pennies, but it will only happen as new investors see the profits increasing and jump in. Ultimately at $1 some Institution's will start to get involved, and as it goes higher, Institution may very well own the majority of the shares. We small investors will make the largest percentage gains, but as it goes from $1 to $5, and then $5 to $10 or more, all too many of us will sell Institutions our shares, and they'll make the greatest dollar gains.
Personally I don't intend to sell at the much higher prices. If I need funds once we're into a few dollars, margin borrowing is certainly something I'd consider, rather than selling stock, as long as I still believed in the stocks potential to grow. Frankly, until our units are being used all over the world, we have tremendous growth potential.
Gary
Hopester,
I believe that any number is possible if results of trials are positive. I believe there are thirty some products in trial for coronavirus, I believe that many will achieve some positive results, but only for a percentage of the patients. Trump's drug has achieved marginal benefits for some, and has some very serious side effects that have harmed others, it shouldn't be the answer.
What we're doing isn't targeted at coronavirus, it's targeted at pneumonia, and it should work regardless of the primary cause of it. If our drug proves effective, it has billion dollar potential annually, not just for coronavirus, as pneumonia is the outcome that kills people with colds, flu, and all sorts of other diseases, and even if coronavirus is eliminated, others will still be around.
I can see the regulators going to extremes to approve drugs that have benefits in the pandemic, but it doesn't happen in days, or weeks, but perhaps if we have positive data over the next couple months they'll agree to approve it under this extreme condition. The good news is that any approval should establish it's use in pneumonia in general, even if that approval specifies coronavirus, yes it would be off label use, but the benefit will be undeniable.
Gary
Just a little speculation on what may be going on in Germany. Could the German's be treating this as a blinded trial, perhaps even with a control receiving a placebo. While I'd hope there wasn't a control, so all would gain the benefit, could they be saying nothing until XXX number of patients have been dosed and tracked for at least XXX days.
I'm not saying this is the case, just that I don't know that anyone has heard anything about their efforts.
As for today's trading, retrenchment is essentially normal with no news, and I suspect that's all that's happening. It's not that we haven't gotten any new press, but best I can tell it's been the same story repeated, nothing new to add about either numbers who've received the drug, or condition of the patients that did so.
Frankly, if the American who received the drug is typical of the others, recovery of all would be amazing. After over 20 days on a ventilator, I doubt if more than a couple percent are surviving. People on ventilators are essentially in medically induced comas, friends and relatives are unable to communicate with them, and Doctor's who're very busy can rarely update families. It's a sad way of departing from friends and family, but some do make it.
I certainly hope if a trial is being done in this way that another one is being tried much earlier, at the onset of pneumonia, that's one that could prove to save a great deal of expense if in fact patients improve to the point of not requiring hospitalization, or only short term hospitalization if they want them hospitalized to observe how patients react to the treatment.
Perhaps I'm completely wrong, perhaps Germany hasn't dosed even the first person. I'm just hoping they have, and that they're dosing a lot of people so that when they report, it will be on enough patients to really get some attention from the medical community.
Gary
I believe your 58.4 month figure came from Dr. Liau's presentation on the Top 100, now probably nearly a year ago. That figure was for the median of the Top 100, and I'm pretty certain it was still growing, I believe it's well over 60 months now.
I view cross over patients as having the vaccine. While I believe those who received the vaccine early had an advantage, I do believe a reasonable percentage of those still alive crossed over. I really don't understand why anyone who was blinded would say no to what would be the cross over dosing for them, unless they were in total remission prior to reaching the point it would be done. That leaves me believing that most of those who didn't cross over were deceased prior to the opportunity to cross over. I wouldn't be surprised if all survivors received the vaccine.
Top line data should give us at least an idea of the whole picture, but of course the detail really won't come out until the entire trial is presented for peer review either in a technical conference, or published for peer review in a in a technical journal. Once that occurs, the details can all be shared with investors. Any company that is considering a partnership, etc with NWBO would establish confidentiality agreements with them, and they would able to thoroughly see everything that won't be public until it's presented for peer review.
Gary
I'm frankly uncertain of the last time we got a firm number on how many were alive, I believe at that time they exceeded 80, and I think that was at least 18 months ago. If I'm about right, many of these people were at 60 months or more at that time, and the least were over 30 months. I suspect a lot of these peoples conditions were stable disease, or better, and I'd not be surprised if 80% or more of them are still alive today. I wouldn't be surprised to find over 70 are still alive.
Unlike you, I believe that practically all of those alive received our vaccine, either initially, or crossing over later. In fact, I wouldn't be that surprised if not a single living patient hadn't received the vaccine.
I can't say what we'll learn on Saturday, without unblinding I believe they could say how many were still alive, but clearly they couldn't say how many had received the vaccine. I wonder if Dr. Liau will be available on the call to speak, and perhaps answer questions.
Gary
A double from where we are today is just a matter of a little more positive evidence away. I would hope that by next week the company is able to tell us that over 25, perhaps even 50 or more people are getting PLX=PAD. We need to realize that these are very sick people, a few may not make it, but if the majority do, there can be no doubt that success and regulatory acceptance won't be that far away.
Gary
Speaking of the world, what do people think Germany is up to. To date we've seen nothing on them dosing even their first patient. I have a feeling they have, and some people know what they're doing, just none of us.
I would also believe additional compassionate use cases are being added every day, certainly in Israel, but anywhere that compassionate use is permitted may have some patients who's families and Doctors are pushing for it. Note, I don't say patients because to date the patients on it have been on ventilators, they're sedated, so the push has to come from their families.
Gary
Is that by next month, or must we do it this one.
Gary
After hours PSTI's at $8,70, up $.29 from the close. There are several articles floating around about it, if it begins to heal people on ventilators, my $1 billion market cap could prove very conservative.
Gary
I don't believe it's necessary, or something I've ever seen from a company this tiny, but let the company grow, then perhaps a dividend that could be sizable will be considered. If a few years from now were looking at a $5 share price and are listed on the Nasdaq, then let's look at it again.
Gary
You may be right, but I actually believe many larger hospitals will require multiple units. I believe that's true of some of the hospitals were in as well.
Of course hopefully in the not to distant future we won't be fighting coronavirus, that may reduce the frequency of sanitizing virtually entire facilities, but people avoid hospitals to avoid infection, this is an image that needs to change.
It's a sad commentary, but sometimes the best way of avoiding getting sick is to avoid Doctors offices, urgent care, the ER, and hospitals as that's where you find the sick people. We cannot totally eliminate the risk, but it can be reduced with improved sanitation.
Gary
Has some news hit, it's suddenly up over $.50.
Gary
Read my answer, it was based on the proposition we're currently making millions weekly. I don't know that's a fact, but I believe it may be.
Gary
If you're correct about a million or more a week, I agree. If that's the case they might actually be smart to buy back shares while they're this cheap. I don't know how much new manufacturing capability will cost however. If we had a contract to do every hospital in the U.K. in one year, I suspect they'd need hundreds of millions to deliver, but it would be worth it.
Of course it's also possible that growth can be slow and steady, and revenue can cover that growth. I frankly believe enough in what we're making to believe that in the next 5 to 10 years many of the worlds hospitals, and many other places should have our equipment available to them either through acquisition, or contracting services that provide it. Either way, a lot more units will be needed, and growth could be monumental.
A multi-billion dollar market cap for this company is not out of the question in not much over a year, perhaps even sooner.
Gary
Hopester,
I believe that well before June we'll know if PLX-PAD is effective for pneumonia, any type of pneumonia, not just coronavirus related. If it is, even $20 is low, that would reflect less than a half billion dollar market cap. I believe that if PLX-PAD becomes the preferred treatment for pneumonia patients, ideally before a ventilator is require, a billion dollar market cap could easily be achieved.
If it's not effective at all, we'll go back to looking for initial approval in CLI, and a billion dollar market cap will have to wait. If however it is effective, it will become the reason that we can recover faster as a nation and world as it will no longer be as deadly. Certainly precautions should still be taken to avoid it, but if it's not as threatening to life, people will go back to a more normal life until we have a vaccine.
Gary
I believe the company has been open about prior quarterly results being bad, it shouldn't have been a surprise. I don't believe it should be about the past, the Annual Report won't be much better, the first quarter should be a little better, but still not profitable. The current quarter, if we meet the projections we're getting, should begin to see a profit, and I believe profits will continue from here on out, with the exception that the company may need money to expand. Expansion is a good thing, so I won't object to whatever they need to do to accomplish it.
Gary
To me a discussion of where we are in the process of unblinding the trial is "Interesting" it's not something requiring a PR, but such a discussion, as well as a forecast for the move forward through approval would certainly be interesting. I don't know what will be said, but I do believe that much that could be interesting is available to the company, let's see what they have in mind.
Gary
Why does it matter to you about share count. Are you telling me that companies with over a billion shares can't be successful, you should take a look at Apple. Certainly dilution isn't something investors love, but they understand it may be necessary to fund the growth of the company.
Personally I don't like reverse splits because their history often fails to meet the intended goal. That said, on occasion they can work very well, so nothing is totally wrong with them. I believe that PSTI will potentially be a huge success on treatment of coronavirus based pneumonia, and they did a 1 for 10 R/S to stay on the Nasdaq. I'll be fine with it selling in triple digits, rather than double digits after its success.
PCTL on the other hand should shortly be able to move up from the pinks to the OTC. With success it will probably be able to move up to the AMEX, or even the Nasdaq in a matter of time, probably at least a year or more away. There is no reason to rush this action, a multibillion dollar market cap is not dependent on what exchange you trade on, and this company has the potential to have a multibillion dollar market cap.
Gary
Governor Cuomo just indicated that most patients who go on ventilators fail to survive, in the case of our patient, he's been on it over 20 days. It will be very big news if he recovers, and it will be especially interesting to see an assessment of what deterioration is seen in his various organs.
I certainly hope that future application of our drug reaches patients earlier in this vicious cycle. It would be interesting to see if hospitalizations couldn't be eliminated by injecting people at the initial indication they had pneumonia.
Pneumonia could become PSTI's greatest market if it's use became a part of the SOC for even a small fraction of those who get it. It's said in most year common flu kills many tens of thousands. Most these people die of pneumonia. If only those who's pneumonia is advanced enough to require hospitalization receive the drug, we're probably looking at hundreds of thousands annually on a worldwide basis.
Gary
Ask yourself where you'd rather be. In a hospital where rooms are sanitized with UV light infectious patients are moved through the hospital corridors by the nursing stations, which must be manned to monitor the patients. Can the lights be used in the corridors, no, can it be used in the hospital room with the patient present, no, in the lobbies, cafeteria, etc, not if it's occupied, and not where shadows prevent it's penetration.
Or would you rather be in a hospital that utilizes our system, one the can be used in rooms, corridors, lobbies, etc, etc. I believe there is little thought needed to determine what's best. Patients may not have a choice when they go to a hospital as to how it's sanitized, but I believe the hospital administrators will look at the difference and make the right decision in time. Nothing happens instantly, it takes money and planning, but over time I've got to believe that UV and other systems which can't reach everywhere, and which can't be used with people present will be replaced with systems that reach everywhere, and can be used with patients present.
Gary
In other companies in the past I'm aware of trials that were due to end after a specific number of events, typically something like 2/3rds the number in the trial. The problem with such an arrangement is that if the drug works well, the trial duration is exceptionally long. That could be the case here, but with the cross over design of the trial, where all could potentially see the benefits, some patients may die of old age rather than the disease before the trial ends.
I'm sure there are ways out of this Catch 22 situation, but if it's something like the last living patient must be in the trial 60 months, or frankly anything over about 36 it's overkill IMHO for a disease where survival at 36 months is as low as statistically it is with GBM.
When I first invested in the stock many investors believed that 36 months would trigger the unblinding, then it became 48 months, now you have to wonder if it's 60 months. It shouldn't be, I believe it was thought that it would end sooner, but perhaps that was based on a specific number passing on. Frankly I'd much prefer everyone alive now continue to live in health, the vaccine is clearly working, it's time to unblind the trial and tell everyone just how well it's working.
Gary
To me the saddest thing about quarterly and annual reports is all the history that must be repeated describing all sorts of things in the past, and how little can be said about what the company represents today. I know it's required by SEC laws and regulations, but frankly I wish they could simplify it.
If many of the documents included were simply put into a Federal Register, where anyone interested could quiry a computer system, but the quarterly and annual reports simply reported only the events of that quarter. Personally I'd like to see annual reports that were more like what they were decades ago. Certainly they could be electronic, but many back then were like magazines highlighting what the company was doing. Yes they also had the financial information, but they weren't loaded with a ton of information about the risks of investing in stock. Once again, all of that could be in the Federal computer system, anyone interested could find the information by simply going to the site and putting in the name, or stock symbol of the company.
I really doubt that most investors care very much about 90% of what's in this report, they want to know what the company did in the quarter, and what the company forecasts for coming quarters or more. We're all just relieved to finally have it out so restrictions on the stock can be removed.
Gary