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The problem I believe is that patients currently being put on PLX-PAD are already in serious condition, on ventilators. Some of the damage may already been done, while our drug may help restore some things, it's hard to say if all damage can be repaired. I certainly agree that we're probably saving lives of people on ventilators, but if we can get it to people who's pneumonia has just shown in X-rays, we can benefit them to the point they may never require hospitalization.
This will be an evolving process, first we dose those closest to dying, then those where ventilators are thought to be needed within a day or so, then to those with pneumonia serious enough to cause hospitalization, and finally to people who've just been found to have pneumonia, but who're still capable of self care at home. It could take some time to evolve through all these stages, but if we manage to do it, our drug could become SOC treatment for all determined to have pneumonia.
I cannot say what a fair price will be for treatment. No doubt it will be more than current therapies, but a certain percentage on current therapies even before coronavirus wound up in the hospital, with some eventually dying. The up front cost may be higher, but far fewer should require hospitalization, and far fewer should die, so the net cost may be substantially lower in spite of the higher initial cost.
If as another investor suggested, two injections are all that will be required, it's a small fraction of what's used in the treatment of CLI, so the cost should be a fraction of that treatment. Perhaps it may be found that in earlier pneumonia cases a single injection may be all that's required. We're really a long way from knowing how the drug may best be used, and we'll probably want to look at whether PLX-R18 may be as good or better under certain circumstances.
Let's hope we get good news from our first patient here in the U.S., but one person is hardly a trial, we really need to get it into many more.
Gary
In order to announce TLD at ASCO they would have had to have filed an Abstract that would at least get enough attention to justify a presentation. Now that ASCO's a virtual conference, if they're selected to make a presentation, I'd have to guess it would be a poster or slides that they can submit, perhaps a video.
If they intended to present at the Expert's Forum, I'm uncertain if that will even occur, I don't know where the audience would come from.
Gary
I'm very aware of the savings in time our system provides, the point I was making is a hospital could lease or purchase our machines, and train their staff to operate them, or they could contract. There is still substantial work the cleaning people should do as while our machine sanitizes everything, the least the cleaning people do is run a dry mop over the floor to clean it, remove the trash, etc.
If they determine to contract, it could be for all cleaning and sanitation services, or just sanitizing, with the remainder done by their staff.
Gary
When it comes to sanitizing a hospital we all need to recognize that the owners of the hospital have a choice of doing it with their own staff, or contracting for it. We've seen that at least one of our prime distributors and user is sanitizing several hospitals utilizing our equipment, rather than selling the equipment to the hospital, for hospital staff to do it.
It would be nice to know how many hospital choose to contract cleaning and sanitizing over having their own staff doing it.
Gary
One thing I cannot understand, if LP personally has many warrants, why would she possibly be attempting to have them expire worthless. Certainly she doesn't have them all, but enough to make a healthy profit, and bring a fair amount of money into the company by their conversion to stock.
I recognize that she may have a need to have more shares authorized in the future, but if the stock is selling for substantially more, I doubt if shareholders will turn her down. Frankly I thought such a measure would have been voted next Saturday, but it wasn't. It's also very possible that at some point in the future we'll have to vote on a partnership which includes this sort of issue to permit the partner to take a substantial equity interest.
Gary
The question of why the company raised money when it did may have been a case of being tempted by an Institution that want to buy in. When a broker comes to you with money, it's sometimes hard to say no, and when a broker has a customer wanting substantial shares, normally an Institution, they know they can sell out the offering. The company may want the interested investor to be a shareholder.
While it's JMHO, it's based on something I was told many years ago by a broker.
Gary
Meirluc,
You certainly may be right, but I would frankly be surprised if more than one or two of the current survivors are control patients, and unless a patient had a complete remission before the opportunity to cross over, I cannot see anyone doing it. My thought are all, or nearly all who didn't cross over may have passed on before the opportunity would have been available to them.
We have no idea what the terms of the SAP may be, or if they're even finalized. While I personally think it's crazy to wait for a specific number of deaths when people are living much longer than anticipated, the regulators are sometimes so set in their ways that it's not worth the battle you'd have to fight to make the change. It's also possible they're looking at the living patient in the trial the shortest period exceed XX number of months, over 48 sounds excessive to me, but anything is possible.
The last patient to enter the trial would be approaching 54 months I believe, I would hate to think they agreed to 60 months. In short, there is really no reason that a trial should be stretched out to this length, I believe the vaccines benefits would have been clear a couple years ago. Perhaps had more people died sooner the trial would have ended sooner, and would have been a success, especially in a disease that kills so many as quickly as GBM does.
Gary
In a recent post a service company was cited who used our equipment in a wide variety of hospitals and other medical facilities that went far beyond the ten hospitals we know have leased our equipment. This is telling me that in reality, our equipment is currently being used in far more than ten hospitals, but as stockholders, we really don't know how many.
If XXX Sanitation has a contract to sanitize 20 hospitals, the question that might be asked is, how many units do they need to do it. Certainly, if some of the hospitals are small, and located near one another a single unit might serve two or more such facilities. On the other hand, if some are massive hospitals, more than one unit may be needed just for that facility.
My point is that our business grows rapidly not just through sales or leases to hospitals and others, it grows by all the service companies that are using, and in some cases distributing it, and little accounting is being done for how many different facilities are being serviced by other companies. I have no idea if XXX Sanitation purchases, or leases our equipment, it really doesn't matter, what matters is as these businesses expand, so does the demand for our equipment.
It would be very interesting to see a list of all the contractors who're using our equipment, and all the facilities each had contracts with for doing their sanitizing. It shouldn't matter to us whether Hospital XXX has a lease or owns our equipment, or if they use a contractor who does that service for them, and they use our equipment. I frankly believe that contractors are often used to keep staffing levels down and pass the costs of maintaining a substantial staff on to others, rather than keeping everything in house. The key is the contractor maintaining the quality of their service.
Gary
I believe you're very right. I really don't believe we're going to be free to move around for awhile, so in spite of not getting delivery for about a month I place an order for washable cloth masks on Amazon that have replaceable filters, and some spare filters. These masks present far more protection than just cloth, but aren't quite N-95 masks. Just food for thought.
It's probably been nearly 50 years since the first time I went to Japan and encountered people wearing masks. Back then the locals told me these people largely had colds or the flu, and they were protecting others from getting it. It made a lot of sense, but we never adapted such practices. Today we have a virus that while you may feel fine, you still may be carrying and spreading it. Everyone wearing masks until this virus is no longer a threat to anyone, which may not be until we have a vaccine that's performing well.
Frankly, when coronavirus is long gone I hope we'll remember the benefits of using a mask, and wear them if we believe we have something which may be contagious. When I received stem cells, with my immune system practically nonexistent, I wore a mask everywhere, it's not that hard to do, but obviously you can't eat or drink while wearing one. The point is to get as much protection as you can reasonably, and I did.
Today, or rather in a few months from now if sports venues are reopened, I would recommend that masks be mandatory, and food and drink only available outside where they can be had while maintaining a distance from others. While this would certainly cut down on concessions, I believe it's a fair trade for resuming sports in a reasonably safe way.
Gary
At the Annual Meeting if almost nothing new is provided, I believe there is one bit of information that could be provided that would tell us a great deal, in fact I believe it could be sufficient to move the stock up dramatically. That bit of information is, how many patients are currently alive in the trial.
I believe even a number as low as 40 is saying our vaccine is a game changer, but I think the number could very well be 60 or more, which clearly would be huge. Clearly I'm not one that believes in all the FDA's acceptance criterias, I believe in what I can clearly see. All anyone needs to know is that with over 300 GBM patients treated over more than a decade, the last of which were done roughly 4.5 years ago, with SOC treatment perhaps 15 would have been anticipated to be alive. Our trial may have four or more times that many, how can anyone deny a tremendous benefit when using our vaccine.
I certainly hope we hear more than this at the Annual Meeting, but if there were only one thing we learned, I hope it would be that one.
Gary
I don't believe it's correct to say our cells kill the virus, I believe our cells increase blood production, and the additional blood works to clear up the pneumonia, regardless of what's causing the pneumonia. This actually greatly improves the potential of our drug, as it will still be needed after coronavirus completely disappears. Someone more medically knowledgeable please correct me if I'm wrong.
I would hope that in the next few days we learn more about what's happening elsewhere in the world. I've got to believe that Israeli dosing hasn't stopped at 7 patients, nor have I heard of what's happening in Germany. Now there are reports that some use may be occurring here in the U.S., I would hope that in the next week or less we get some more information about both the numbers that are being dosed, where they are, and finally how the patients are doing.
If in fact PLX-PAD is a game changer that dramatically lowers the likelihood of death, and if we truly have hundreds of thousands of doses, or more, and substantial thawing devices, then normal life could resume much sooner. Why? Because if we can eliminate the death threat, say to no worse than normal flu, we should be able to accept what happens as people get the disease, start to develop pneumonia, then get their dose of PLX-PAD and in most cases not require hospitalization.
Certainly we still need a vaccine to limit this threat in the future, but if we can cut the death threat to a fraction of a percent, we should also be able to reduce the threat of common flu substantially as well, in short, on a continuing bases we'll be saving lives.
Again, if anything I've indicated above is medically wrong, please correct me.
Gary
Thanks, that was from me and I believe I've expressed essentially the same views here. In general that site has had little action, and frankly I wish more were being said there, so I chimed in after some posts appeared there.
I never know where someone might learn something that has them look deeper into this, or any other stock. I believe that when the right person looks at this stock they see tremendous potential. This stock is wrong for many people, simply for one reason, it's not big enough, they won't be interested until it has a market cap of one or more billion dollars, that's true of both individuals, and Institutions.
Just last week we gained enough that Institutions that don't invest in anything under $5 would invest, so we may see more Institutional investment shortly, and we could also see the company raising funds because a broker came to them with perhaps tens of millions of shares an Institution would like to purchase through such an offering. I'm of the belief that many stock offerings are made by brokers who know who will buy the shares before they ever approach the company to consider an offering.
Many years ago it was very different. Major brokerages would participate in offerings, the CEO's and others would go on road shows to interest potential investors, and as a small investor you'd be privileged to be invited to a road show presentation, or participate in the offering with a few hundred shares at slightly below the market price, and with no brokerage commission. Today it's primarily Institutions that attend conferences held at brokerages, and who share new offerings. The small investor can really only hope to go along for the ride when the Institutions determine the time is right to move a company to a dramatically different trading range. Of course positive news works to make it happen, but the degree of the move can be greatly effected by Institutional action. I believe that with just a little more positive news the Institutions will help drive PSTI to a multi-billion dollar market cap.
Gary
You may be right, but it's also possible that a multi-million dollar expansion of their manufacturing capability may be warranted, and the money they're bringing in may not support that kind of growth. Some of America's biggest companies often routinely sell stock to grow even bigger, and investors are well rewarded by the growth of the corporation.
I don't fight dilution when I believe it's for the right reasons. Sometimes that reason may be to stay in business, as they're not earning money. In other cases it's to grow. I believe this company is at the point where they no longer need to dilute to stay in business, but they may be at the point where they'll need it to grow. The good news is if they do, they'll be getting far more money for each share they need to issue.
Gary
I'll go for A = $.27 B = $1.35
Gary
I don't know why the concern about 1 billion shares authorized now, I didn't hear about the company till right before the end of last year, and it was a billion shares then, when I bought in. A company with billions of shares issued can still be worth many dollars, just look at the market cap and it proves what I'm saying. Look at Apple, over 4 billion shares outstanding, does anyone doubt it's worth.
I'm not suggesting that PCTL will grow to the size of AAPL, but could it reach the Nasdaq which requires a $4 price to be listed, absolutely. What sort of market cap do people think it would have if it's units can be found in say 100 hospitals, how about 1000. What if other units are found in agriculture, petroleum, etc. My point is, this company could easily grow to a market cap of double digit billions, and triple digits is not out of the question. No, it won't be as big as AAPL, but right now it's an infant in a market that has tremendous growth potential, I expect that it will either grow tremendously, or be bought out for several billions, either way, current investors who remain will be very well rewarded.
Gary
Thanks, you're probably right. It would be nice to hear from the German's, I certainly hope that when we do that we'll hear about far more than 7 patients who've been dosed.
It would also be nice to hear more about the numbers now tested in Israel. Given the finding for the first 7, I can't believe they haven't dosed a lot more. I know it's not common to report on clinical trials, but this isn't a common clinical trial, however they may have determined to treat it that way for at least a matter of some weeks. I do not believe they'd have a problem getting hundreds of people enrolled in Israel, though I don't know how many they have on ventilators. I believe people on regulators are sedated, either they, or their families should agree to use in a trial situation before they're added to a trial.
Gary
There is another possibility to consider, as long as the share price is close to, but doesn't exceed the price of the warrant. That possibility is actually paying slightly over share price to convert the warrants to shares. Why would one do that, because a purchase of tens of millions of shares, or more, could easily drive the share price up to well over the warrant price. The key would be having the resources to do so, in addition to wanting those shares.
Something else to consider of course, wrt our CEO is that she has inside knowledge, she may know that $.22 will be a bargain in a matter of weeks, or months, but with what she knows, she'd be in violation of SEC rules if she bought at this time on the open market. I'm not a securities expert, but I don't believe she'd be in violation to purchase warrants she owns that are due to expire, even if it's at a premium to the stock price. Please correct me if I'm wrong about that.
As for others holding warrants, the same logic applies, if your open purchase would drive up the price of the stock, purchasing the warrants at a slight premium may be a smart move as you're getting the shares at a fixed price as well as providing operating funds for the company.
If the warrants are converted, I don't believe it would be reported until the financials are filed for the second quarter, it would probably hardly be noticed by then. I for one don't believe they're trying to hold the stock down, below the warrant level intentionally, if they were, why would they do an offering when they could have received as much or more money from warrant conversion. I believe it's a nice conspiracy theory, but like so many such theories, nothing will ever be proven.
Gary
I think every now and then it's nice to go into dream mode, and think about how well things could come out in the not that distant future. For example, I fully believe that a small part of my investment, which wasn't that great in the first place, could buy me a new Tesla.
Think about it, if as many believe this company is trading for dollars before the end of this year, let's say it reaches $5, at that point if you're looking at something selling for $100K or less, it will cost you 20K shares of PCTL. While I have substantially more than that, given that I bought at just under $.007 cents, that would say I purchased a Tesla for less than a $140 investment. That's a nice dream that could come true.
Perhaps it won't happen this year, I actually wouldn't want it until early next, as that's when it becomes a long term gain, but the point is, it's a nice dream that can come true. Certainly we have a long way to go, but can you imagine the U.K. placing a large order for our machines, I can. Can you see it going into hundreds of hospitals here, or being used by all sorts of service companies that clean and sanitize office and other industrial spaces overnight, I can. Where will we be in a year, very hard to say, who know, perhaps I'll be able to buy that Tesla from $70 or less worth of stock, i.e. 10K shares.
Gary
I think we all need to be ready to ignore the financial data specified in the report, as it no doubt will be quite negative. We know that's not where the company is today, but those old financials must be posted to bring us current. Likewise the Annual Report when issued isn't going to say financially we're in great shape, not even the just completed quarter.
What's important is, the company is still in business, and business is getting better every month. Yes, in part it's because of coronavirus, which is making everyone concerned with better sanitation, but it's also because we have a great line of products that are needed in many industries. When coronavirus is long gone this company should still be prospering.
By the way, I know our products are made here in the U.S., but I've gathered that some components come from China, or elsewhere, does anyone know that I'm correct in what I understand. I don't know if the company has the capability of making everything that they may be purchasing offshore, or have other American companies that could currently build them. If so, no problem, if not it may be something they would be wise to establish over time. Don't get me wrong, I believe foreign components will generally still be available, but problems at times could delay deliveries, it would be nice to have local suppliers, even if it's at a higher cost.
Gary
Have you ever heard of the member of the Board filing a description of what they've done for the company.
Truth is, we'll never know what benefit Cofer Black, or anyone else has specifically given us. In the end it's the data that will say our vaccine is approved, or not, but it's possible the approval criteria will have been modified by a door that was opened by him, we'll never know.
Gary
I believe the greatest advantage that Cofer Black brings to the company is all the people he knows, and all the doors he can open. No doubt he's very intelligent, but to my knowledge he's not a medical expert, regardless, he knows experts in all sorts of areas, and he can get the company in the door, once the door has been opened, it's up to the company to sell them on why they wished to meet them.
Gary
Let's discuss PLX-R18 briefly. Initially I believed that this should be tried in pneumonia, it wasn't the direction the company choose. What are peoples thoughts about whether it will, or has already been tried, or will in the near future.
I cannot say why the company did as they did, other than perhaps the belief that PLX-PAD was closer to approval. I frankly believe the U.S. Govt. based on animal trials for radiation could declare PLX-R18 approved, essentially as a cover my ass way to make it available for use off label immediately. I don't know that PSTI has filed for such approval, but when it comes to CMA solutions to problems, perhaps that could be ignored at this time.
We know the drug is being used in human trials for other things, but none are close to approval, agencies like the FDA want coverage for saying they're okay with using a product off label. An approval for use in radiation, based on purely animal trials would provide them such coverage.
Gary
When it comes to the use of PLX-PAD we're caught in a Catch 22 situation here in the U.S., and perhaps elsewhere, because it's not yet approved for anything anywhere. Trump can advocate for drugs that exist as approved for other diseases, but to make PLX-PAD available here, based on trial evidence, he'll need to dictate to the FDA to abandon all their rules and regulations and simply approve it. Lacking that, perhaps it could be called a massive trial where virtually any Dr. could prescribe it's use, and report the results to an FDA database, essentially as you'd do in a Phase 4.
My point is, I believe the Govt. would find a way to do it, but it would greatly stretch all their rules and regulations. The easiest way of making it happen would be a bulk purchase by the Federal Govt. They could then provide it to everywhere it is needed. The price they pay per dose may not be as great as PSTI will be paid in the future, but it will be high enough to put PSTI on the map. While coronavirus may disappear in a year or two, pneumonia will not, and if our drug is successful, it will become the SOC for the treatment of pneumonia for the foreseeable future.
It's my understanding that some European countries are looking to approve PLX-PAD on submission of more data on CLI. They too might expedite the decision greatly to make it available for coronavirus, but the company will need to provide that interim data. Hopefully this can happen in a matter of weeks, as that's what's needed for more evidence on it's benefit in pneumonia. Once data's revealed for a hundred or so who've received the drug, hopefully the evidence will be so great that countries will do whatever is necessary to make it available to all who need it.
Gary
I think it should be clear that our vaccine isn't the cure to GBM, at least not for the overwhelming majority. We don't know if, or how many remaining in the living group, now well over 4 years and more, can be called cured, but perhaps there are some. My point is that until you can give it to 100 people, and have all of them cured, you haven't completely cured the disease. Our vaccine is a step in the right direction, and hopefully is a cure for many still alive who wouldn't have been if they hadn't been in the trial.
What won't be known for years, even decades or longer is whether as other things provide benefits for GBM patients whether they will be added to our vaccine, or whether they'll replace it. At this time I believe our company has the right idea, personalized vaccines that help our bodies fight cancer, they very well may be able to adapt the technology to other diseases as well. My point is that years from now we may have made substantial improvements on our current products, or perhaps not, only time will tell. I believe we're constantly building on our capability of making it.
Each day we're one day closer to when we'll know, perhaps we'll get guidance on that by the Annual Meeting a week from tomorrow. All here will certainly be disappointed if we don't. We may not be given a finite date, but I believe the least we should hear is what quarter they will unveil the TLD, and perhaps what technical conference they believe they'll present it at.
We know that ASCO will be a virtual conference this year. I would hope that the threat is sufficiently reduced by the SNO Conference, it can be held in a normal manner, but with some precautions. The key may very well be if we have better treatment, or if a vaccine is available earlier than currently anticipated.
At this point we're just over a week from knowing what will have been discussed. In reality, the SEC wouldn't require a P.R. for such things as announcing an intent to present at SNO, or even when they anticipate filing a BLA. There are many things they can provide guidance about that do not require pre announcing at all, if they are not material events, if essentially they're just anticipation of when certain things will occur, they really need not issue anything before they speak. After the meeting I believe they'll summarize what was presented, and that will be released through the SEC along with the results of the vote at the meeting.
Gary
As a fairly new investor in PCTL I believe that for years they've had their struggles surviving, and I suspect that the delinquent quarterly and Annual Report will show this. However, I don't believe this is still the case, and I believe we'll be told in the Annual Report how much things are looking up in the future. The next quarterly won't show a profit, though Gary (not me) indicated they profited in March, but again I believe they can discuss the future in the report, and that should spur interest in the company.
All this should change when second quarter results are issued, hopefully by early August. I don't know how great the profit will be, but it should be very positive news, and each quarter thereafter may be stronger. Of course this doesn't mean the company won't need additional money, when you're growing, you very well may need greater funds to expand, and I believe we'll be expanding dramatically. The good news is our share price will be so dramatically higher that a million share might bring in well over a million dollars.
Time will tell, but if PCTL isn't bought out before, I wouldn't be surprised to see their equipment in most hospitals around the world. Likewise it will be used by all sorts of companies who clean and sanitize businesses all over the world. I would hope they have an inexpensive model that has sufficient capacity to sanitize a home or small office, even if it's just once a week, my point is that I believe that such a device would sell well and make us all feel better about where we live, work, shop, and eat.
While I believe that having an electrostatic sprayer to spray our solution would be great, it still would mean getting a supply of the solution on a regular basis. The idea of having a device that simply uses water and a salt to make the solution as we need it is so much more desirable. Whether it's built into a single device, or two devices, one to make the solution another to spray or mist it, won't matter, if it's priced fairly, it will sell.
Gary
Hopester,
I agree that far more data is needed. We've not been told that additional people have been dosed in Israel, but I've got to believe it's happening. Likewise we've not been told that they're starting to dose in Germany, but again I believe they should be. The question of how many is certainly unanswered, but I would hope we're looking at hundreds, even perhaps thousands, and if one or two weeks after dosing the results are as positive as for seven patients in Israel, I've got to believe that Internationally the use of our drug will be accepted.
I know that pneumonia is covered by our patents, I cannot say why the company didn't initially choose to run trials for it, perhaps it was because many do recover from it. In the case of coronavirus, many who go on the ventilator don't make it, certainly far more never go on a ventilator, but if it were up to me, those approaching the ventilator should be dosed, as well as all who're already on it. Prior to coronavirus, I'd suspect that a clinical trial for pneumonia would probably required thousands, perhaps even tens of thousands to be meaningful. With the greater probability of fatal pneumonia coming from coronavirus, I would hope the evidence from hundreds on ventilators to be sufficient to see it's benefits and permit its use, and PSTI should be paid for providing it. I don't know that they'll be paid on a per dose basis, or if the worlds governments will do bulk purchases to provide it to their people, but clearly PSTI should profit.
Gary
Hopester,
We're less than a third of the way through April, I believe by the end of the month we have substantially more data, and I believe that data will be good. If I'm correct about that, I believe our market cap could easily fall between $.5 and $1 billion, roughly $25 to $50.
I know this may sound extreme, but if results are great can you show me another company with that sort of potential that doesn't have at least a half billion market cap.
Gary
Just a thought, until they do sticky it, you might do something that differentiates new information from what's previously posted. There is a ton of information on what you post, but I for one, and I think there are many like we, don't go through it in depth. I might look deeper at newly added information, either found at the beginning or end, but intergrated into the rest of the information after it's no longer new.
Gary
I believe that Congress is considering the idea of virtual meetings. When the Congressman insisted on a quorem call for the recent funding vote, the majority of the House Members were not all present in their seats at the same time. They can maintain distance and enter and leave the chamber to vote.
In many of the cases where they speak to the House or Senate, few can be seen if they pan the audiance, which they rarely do. My point is, they can conduct business without being present most of the time, as long as they can come in and vote during the time allowed, which is usually pretty substantial.
Frankly it's foolish that they don't permit voting from a virtual meeting which could be set up, permit them to speak and vote without contact with many people. As we know, several of these people have been exposed, and some are suffering with coronavirus. They can pass measures by acclimation without all being present, but we've seen Congressmen trying to obstruct that making a quorem call. Clearly acclimation is only possible if both political parties agree on an issue.
Gary
I'd like to see this post stickied, and revised as applicable, there is a lot of valuable information here, however I don't believe it should be repeated multiple times a day.
Gary
If your speaking of a P/E ratio, I think the general range is 10 to 30 times earnings, based on the potential to grow. I believe that growth could be great as both new applications are found for existing drugs, and new drugs are approved, so I'd put it closer to 30 times earnings.
Gary
As this advances toward recognition for curing pnemonia, the question in my mind is, how long will it take to achieve a billion dollar market cap. I believe if German results are released that are as positive as what we've seen from Israel, it could happen within a matter of day after those results are released. Likewise if the Israeli trial is extended to dozens, or hundreds, a week or so after treatment lets see if we get a report.
The company's next earnings report is due May 11th according to Fidelity, of course this could be delayed by coronavirus related authorized delays. I believe by then we'll not only know with some certainty how effective the drug is in pnemonia, I also think we'll get news on how much dilution has occured, as well as what's planned. I believe it will be awhile before our O/S exceeds 25 million shares, which makes a billion dollar market cap $40 a share, we currently might be under 20 million shares, or $50 for a billion market cap.
I believe we'll see more data by the end of next week.
Gary
That would be great for Europe, and anyone who'd follow their action. I suspect the U.S. would take more convincing. Trump is enough of a wild card that he might be able to order the FDA to do it in spite of all their normal protocols. The drug he's currently pushing has lots of risks that patients need to consider before trying it. I believe it may have minor benefits for some, but their are some who could actually die of it's side effects if they react badly to it, rather than the coronavirus.
I think we should be clear, our drug isn't specifically for coronavirus, but it may generally work in all forms of pneumonia.
I've been very open to discussing my treatment for leukemia. A few months ago I went to the funeral of a friend, but like so many people he was private about being ill. I believe he actually had leukemia longer than I did, and was in remission, as I am, but in a weakened state, he was killed by pneumonia. I had been hospitalized by pneumonia a few times after receiving stem cells, I also had shingles which put me in the hospital as well, but I've been fortunate, at least thus far. My point is that pneumonia kills many people, not what caused the pneumonia. Common flu kills tens to hundreds of thousands worldwide annually, it's only about .1% of those who get it, but most of the deaths are caused by pneumonia. If we can assist in the cure of pneumonia in most patients we can save a lot of lives annually with, or without coronavirus.
Gary
Jimmy,
One of the problems with our drug approval process is that no matter how good the Phase 3 data looks, between the company having to prepare a BLA or NDA that's very complex, and the FDA taking 6 months to evaluate it, the better part of a year or more is spent in the process. If the FDA wished, they could do otherwise, look at the data themselves, cut the red tape and approve the drug. That would make it available immediately for off label use in pneumonia.
I'm not a believer that this will happen, but if a substantial number of people are tried in pneumonia, perhaps they'd act to do something there, whether it's called an approval or not.
I believe that if the benefits are so clear that no one can deny that people who get our drug have a much greater chance of survival, I've got to believe it will be Internationally accepted, and while the U.S. FDA may not be the first, they will come around. I think that either Israel or Germany may be first to accept the drug, as they're first to be testing it. We've not yet heard how far the German effort has gone. I'm hoping they've dosed many more people, but until something is announced it's purely speculation.
It would be nice to hear more from Israel, especially if we were to learn all 7 who were initially dosed have improved to the point they're being released from the hospital. 7 is a small start, but all 7 were on ventilators, many advanced to the point of going on ventilators don't make it, but 7 isn't sufficient to move the FDA. I really believe that they have adequate drug available and would hope they get the drug to somewhere between 100 and 1000, that could produce undenyable results.
Gary
Honestly the more I read the more I believe that PCTL has another market that few are naming, that's supplying both products and fluid to numerous companies that both provide service, and who also market their equipment.
As this coronavirus plays out I believe all sorts of businesses are becoming far more concerned with maintaining sanitary conditions. Not everyone will purchase equipment from PCTL or others, but they'll sign up for services from those who use their products. I cannot say how many times in looking at some company that's providing such services I find that they're doing it with PCTL equipment.
I first heard of this company just before New Year's last year, I bought the stock after just a few hours of looking into it. I frankly don't remember if I'd ever heard the term coronavirus, but twice in the last 6 years I had catheter infections, each in different hospitals that had excellent sanitation practices IMHO. It took some time each time to determine the precise bug that infected me, but in each case it was something they considered rare enought that they believed I acquired it in the hospital, though part of the time I was in outpatient treatment. I didn't need to know coronavirus was coming to recognize that what this company is doing will improve on what even the greatest hospitals currently are doing.
It will probably be November of next year before we know whether coronavirus will return, and what ferocity it will have. A vaccine by then is doubtful, and that's what truly cuts the threat. If people who've had it remain immune, the numbers will go down dramatically. I just heard a medical expert indicating we should be testing half a million people daily, if we want to return to some degree of normalcy, clearly we're not doing that. Because this disease can be spread by people who have no indication of infectious, we really need the blood test that say's, you've already had it. I know people who had what they thought to be cold or flu back in February, was it coronavirus, the only way they'll know is with a blood test. Personally, I frequently get a runny nose, slightly sore throat, etc, but have had no fever or other indications, and this is not unusual for me in the Winter, but did I have it, I can't say.
I believe the world will be a changed place as we get back to normal, it won't be anything like the normal of the past. People will be far more conscious of maintaining sanitary conditions. I believe that this will clearly make the demand greater for what we're providing, and I hope the company will eventually have a home model that's reasonably priced, but can reasonably cover a good sized home, or office, at a price that people can choose whether to do it themselves, or use a service to routinely sanitize there home or business.
Gary
While I completely agree with you, I believe that if our drug actually gains International acceptance for treating pneumonia, our market cap could easily be 5 to even 10 times that much. Of course before that occurs you could anticipate some dilution, but if we gain approvals, and if we're not bought out, this company should some day be well into a double digit billion dollar market cap. In time it may reach that level without approval in pneumonia, as other uses for it's drugs are found, but working in pneumonia could be huge, and would save the life of many people with disease that go well beyond coronavirus.
Gary
That warning should be cleared once the delinquent quarterly report is filed, the company said that would happen by the 15th of this month. They have additional time to file the annual report, because of the coronavirus. I'm hoping they actually file both at the same time, but certainly realize that even if they're ready, they may want to do separate releases.
I believe that even though it's many months late, the manuscript in the quarterly can discuss the up to the minute things the company is doing. I look forward to the annual report for more of that sort of thing, especially in terms of what's anticipated in the future.
I believe it's clear that the company is growing, new facilities opening, new service and sales orgainizations using and selling our products. While I believe that hospitals are best served if they own our equipment, there are many other smaller facilities that may be better served by service companies that use it. Either way on a regularly scheduled period, critical spaces are being sanitized.
When we're able to shop, we probably do more of it at Costco and Trader Joe's than anywhere else, with drugs from CVS. I believe that sanitizing any of these, and so many other stores, etc. could best be done by a service that could come in and in somewhere between a half hour, and a few hours sanitize the entire store, some with handheld electrostatic sprayers, others with the company's unit that generate the chemical as they're spraying it.
Nothing can be 100% certain of removal of all threats, things like lettuce bagged in plastic that contain something that's a problem cannot be cured by a mist sprayed through the establishment, but it will stop what's deposited by someone who's infected coughing, sneezing, or even just breating in the space. It's not something that can be done continuously, but a service doing it daily, or even weakly, will make a big dent in how many are being infected.
I cannot say how much prices may need to rise to pay for improved sanitation in retail establishments, but I suspect that after the coronavirus, consumers will welcome slightly higher prices to be safe.
Gary
Any thoughts on whether our fluid, probably diluted substantially, would have any benefits as a mouthwash. I suspect something to flavor it would also be desirable, but I've seen people use hydrogen peroxide in this way, I can't say it had benefits, I don't know.
Gary
I'm all for the clinical trial, I just hope that all receive the drug, no placebos. They know the prognosis for this disease, it shouldn't require not treating people who think they're getting it. There currently are probably 50K patients on or approaching being on ventilators, that should be the control.
This trial needs to be very quick to have real benefits. All the curves have the disease down to nearly nothing by mid June, or sooner. If they want to save significant numbers of lives, this needs to be in the hospitals in under a month.
Frankly, I wish the Govt. would purchase substantial quantities of the drug and make it available under right to try provisions, each person who received it could be tracked for at least anecdotal data about how well it worked.
Gary
If people like Dr. Fauci hear about this they will no doubt want to see results from a lot more people, I hope the company has already permitted many more under compassionate use to try it. The FDA etc may not like data from hundreds that aren't gathered under the environment of a clinical trial, but I believe the pressure to benefit patients may get them to take actions they'd rarely consider, approve a drug based on a lot of anecdotal evidence alone.
I would suspect that if they tried, the drug could be tried in 1000 people or more in a matter of days. If I'm correct about that, in two weeks time they could have undenyable evidence of its efficacy.
Gary