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Britt,
I believe there is a step in between that's owned by Nasdaq, that's the AMEX and I believe $1 a share can qualify. While I believe that once we've hit $1 it won't be that much longer to $4, if I'm right it wouldn't be a bad move to move to the AMEX.
Personally, I've never like the dollar based qualification, it makes no sense to me that a company with a multi-billion dollar market cap doesn't qualify because their share price is still below $4, while a company with a tiny fraction of their market cap may qualify because they have so few shares outstanding. I really believe some market cap should be required to qualify, and perhaps about a quarter of that maintained to remain, but not based on a dollar price for the stock which typically encourages reverse splits to achieve, or remain on the Nasdaq. In very few cases have I seen a reverse split work, though PSTI did one to stay on the Nasdaq awhile ago, and it may work out well.
When people put down a company for too many shares outstanding I suggest they have a look at Apple, of course they were below a billion shares before they did a 7 for 1 split.
Gary
Even if dilutive financing takes the O/S up substantially, say to 700 million, $4 would represent a $2.8 billion dollar market cap. With a P/E of 10, earnings would need to be $280 million. I believe that with what's been announced just this week that won't be a problem within a year or so.
However, I don't really believe the company will be saying stop, we have all the sales we ever want. I believe the news is certainly going to attract more customers, and with each new customer others will see the benefits, and more customers will come. As this expands all over the U.K. do you suspect the French may see it, how about the Italians, etc.etc.etc.
I believe we're looking at the company that's changing sanitation, not just in hospitals, but in all sorts of places. If I'm right about this, either this will blow right through that $4 required for the Nasdaq and move up to well into double, or even triple digit billions, or at some point it will be bought out, and I'd be saddened if it weren't for at least double digit billions. Investors will be very well served, just give it a little time.
Gary
I don't believe any terms have been announced, I don't generally think that Governments will lease, rather than purchase, but regardless, with an order of this size, I'm sure there will be a substantial discount from the list price.
Gary
I thought that one of the more interesting comments from the meeting was the comment on how they've had to go back to all of the patients, many who've passed on, and find information that they knew nothing about when the trial was initiated. Fortunately, they found a way of doing it, probably from blood tests, but I'm not sure of that.
It sounds like the trial will in part be judged by factors that were totally unknown at the time the trial began.
Gary
They didn't state that, but they couldn't be collecting the data if that were not the case IMHO. The only way it's not the case is if they've agreed to disagree on how the trial is to be judged, but I don't think that's the case.
We now have an estimated completion date, to me it's a major step in the right direction.
Gary
I would hope that this week we learn not only the progress for the patients we know about, but also learn that many more have been added under compassionate use. Ultimately a multinational trials should be announced, I just don't know if the company will undertake it, or if they're attempting to have it funded by other sources.
I believe we're all living in limbo, we don't even know if we carry the disease even though we feel fine. What's really needed is a simple, self administered test, something that worked rather like a pregnancy test, just a little spit, pee, etc on the test point and in a little time it shows positive or negative.
It's my understanding that the 5 minute test equipment is now available in every state, however the Federal Govt. is holding, and parceling out the materials needed to make it work. It's sad that with each test equipment package, all that would be needed to test say 10,000 people were included.
The Federal Govt needs to get all the stuff it's holding out to the states, stories of how they confiscated PPE, etc that states, cities, or hospitals have ordered, and nothing is delivered to those who ordered it needs to stop. Building an inventory of the needed materials by the Fed's is fine if they do so by ordering it, but not by confiscating what's previously been ordered by others.
Gary
I believe the late June early July scenario should work with presenting the full data at SNO. Abstracts are required before then, but I'm pretty sure a placeholder can be filed and updated. Here's a link to the SNO site:
https://www.soc-neuro-onc.org/SNO/MY_SNO/SNO/News/2020_SNO_Annual_Meeting.aspx
I think the company will meet, or come very close to meeting their schedule, and I'd actually hope that they left themselves some wiggle room that if not needed may exceed the schedule.
I'd like to ask a question of those who previously attending their annual meeting. While I'm satisfied to have a time line, I'm wondering if those who attended meetings were able to have more specific questions answered in that more limited forum. Personally I'd like to see a combination of both, a live meeting that was webcast, so those in attendance could meet with and question the presenters, while all could listen in to at least a big part of the presentation.
It will be interesting to see if between now and when top line data is announced if Dr. Liau might have a presentation that fills in some of the blanks, like how many remain alive, or what the median is currently for the Top 100 data she previously discussed. If not, many of the blanks will be filled in with TLD, and hopefully it will all be available at SNO.
Gary
While I would certainly have liked to hear more, I believe the key information we wanted was answered, TLD late June, early July. The fact that the company stated they're fully blinded until the data's compiled may also be saying that things like the number still alive may be know by Dr. Liau, but the company is blinded to it unless she makes a presentation that's open to others as well.
It may not be all we'd hope for, but I believe it positive, and I believe Monday should be an up day, and it will continue to move up as we head toward unblinding and announcement of TLD.
Gary
Out of curiosity, did anyone get in with the password. I too am in as a guest.
Gary
It's only illegal if it's tied to a material event that the SEC defines as requiring a release. I believe they can speak about the trial, goals for completing it, timelines, etc without violating any SEC rules, but after the meeting they should release the results along with at least the highlights of the discussion. I believe they're also going to have the meeting available on archive, so no one will be left out of the information discussed there.
Gary
It looks like we won't get a PR today, perhaps tomorrow before the meeting if there is something that must have a PR before they can discuss it. Frankly, I believe they're free to discuss practically everything we're interested in without a PR, mainly because they don't come tied to monetary deposits, and it's that that make them material events.
.
I'm hoping we come away from the meeting with a much greater knowledge of what's happening, and hopefully some firm guidelines as to when it will happen. A PR should be released after the meeting that will confirm the outcome of the election, but also can discuss anything brought up during the meeting, so guidance should be available to all, not only those who listened in.
If we're satisfied with what we hear, the share price will no doubt be higher on Monday, if we're left with questions or doubts, I suspect we'll bobble along between $.14 and $.20. Let's how the call goes well, and that we can all get in.
Gary
I'm stopping my guesses as to what the stock will do day to day. Yesterday I read the release on the U.K. and it was so much more than the company had ever indicated it could be. I imagined the stock opening anywhere between a dime and a dollar.
I'm not saying the company didn't tell us about the U.K., but who would have thought that besides all of their hospitals they'd commit to the use of our equipment in virtually all of their healthcare facilities. I certainly don't know precisely how they're intending to do it, but the totals for all the units they'll be purchasing or leasing will go into the thousands, if not tens of thousands. While I'm sure they're getting a break on the retail price, this still has to be a multi-billion dollar undertaking on their part. I can't say how much emphasis coronavirus may have placed on their decision, but with or without coronavirus, hospital acquired infections have become a major problem all over the world.
I frankly don't care if we gap up to $.10 or not, I don't believe that every gap must fill, but many do. I would be very surprised if by the end of the month we're not a dime or more, but more importantly, by this time next year that we'll be well beyond $1.
Gary
While we're in agreement Cherry, I had expected more on the U.K. news, and lacking that, I felt I had to add more. I don't mind averaging up when I'm confident a stock is going higher, and I've never been surer of that happening in any stock than I am in this.
No one knows precisely how quickly the hospitals and other medical facilities in the U.K. will be equipped with our system, but the release made it sound like the target is by the end of next year. If that's the case, I believe our earnings could be over $1 a share by next year, if not before, with any reasonable P/E you're into double digit dollar share prices.
Gary
I'm not certain of anything, but perhaps next week in the presentation by the company we'll learn what's being done in Germany. I believe what they're doing is more like a trial, rather than compassionate use, which is producing some positive anecdotal evidence, but not the sort of thing that impresses people like Dr. Fauci.
I believe most of the other products under development are largely intended to treat coronavirus once it's been diagnosed, but by the time people have developed pneumonia, they will be of little benefit. Once pneumonia develops, hopefully PLX-PAD can be applied, ideally before a ventilator is needed, but certainly once people are being put on ventilators. I'm of the belief that if it's used prior to requiring a ventilator, far fewer will advance to the point where they need it.
We have roughly a month before the numbers are greatly reduced, not that there still won't be many patients to treat, but it might be a tiny fraction of the number on ventilators today. If we can get this done before most State's return to some degree of normalcy, should it reemerge in the Fall or Winter we'll be approved by then, and the death rate should be greatly diminished. It won't end the threat, but it will be less deadly, and then we should get a vaccine. If we get that approval, we'll be saving a lot of lives in the future as it becomes the SOC for the treatment of pneumonia regardless of the cause.
Gary
I agree, just increased my holdings. After yesterday's news I never thought I could buy it for single digit pennies, I don't think it will stay there very long.
Gary
I believe time will prove you right, but right now only people who were familiar with the company know anything about it. By the time the price approaches $1 it will be more of a household name, and as revenue kicks in, we'll see far greater prices as both Institutional, and individual investors recognize the value we already know exist in the company.
Gary
I've not read nearly all the posts since last night, and frankly I fail to understand why the market didn't have a greater reaction to the news, but regardless, at these prices the stock is a screaming buy.
I know the company has set up the organization in the U.K., which they own, but it's very possible that that organization, not the U.S., may be manufacturing all the equipment for the contract, it shouldn't matter. As I see it, this contract alone is something between ten and one hundred times the business the company has been doing. I cannot say how much revenue we'll see in this quarter, but by next quarter it should be huge, and even bigger in the fourth quarter. I believe all that revenue is easily going to make our stock worth well into single digit dollars, and if additional contracts come in, as they seem to be, double digit dollars is not out of the question at all.
Let's allow for dilution and say our O/S goes to 750 million shares. Does anyone not believe that we could bring in $250 million in earnings. With a P/E of 10 we have a market cap of $2.5 billion, the share price would be $3.33 with a P/E of 30, the market cap is $7.5 billion, thus a share price of $10. I believe this is a low-ball estimate of what the total business the company is doing with both the U.K. contract and what appears to be a very rapidly growing demand for both equipment and fluids here in the U.S.
I certainly welcome others thoughts, but I believe that we've simply not yet seen that much market exposure, but when we do, you won't see this below $1 ever again.
Gary
I believe we need to get it into more patients, even if it's all anecdotal evidence, people on ventilators, especially if they've been there a long time, often don't make it. It appears the American who had the treatment is near coming off the ventilator just days after getting it, he was on the ventilator about 3 weeks before treatment. Last night ABC L.A. did a story about a younger patient they appeared ready to give up on, I suggested to the station they attempt to get compassionate use from PSTI.
Without a grant they may not be able to fund a full blown trial, and frankly I believe they should get some support in doing a trial. We should hear more next week at their presentation.
As for other drugs gaining approval, it may remove a few patients, but those who get serious pneumonia won't benefit from the other treatments, they will from PLX-PAD. Likewise people with flu based pneumonia, or who get it from other reasons will also get the benefits. This just needs to play its way out.
Gary
I would suspect that after the U.K. news is seen around the world there could be much interest from both countries that have nationalized healthcare, as well as from HMO's, major hospitals, etc. Clearly the British put this to the test and jumped in with both feet. I think Canada might be a natural for the next country to commit if we play our cards right.
Gary
Apple has over 4 billion shares outstanding, perhaps you should tell them that they have a problem.
Gary
While I agree, this is huge, we really don't know the terms of the contract. I suspect they'll purchase, not lease, but regardless, they should get a substantial discount over someone getting one or a few units to sanitize one hospital.
Regardless of how they're going to pay, or where these units are to be made, this should be worth somewhere in the billions over a few years. This order is so big that it wouldn't surprise me if some, or all the equipment is manufactured in the U.K. It would take some time to set up, but it may be a logical way to handle this large an order.
I expect more details may be in the annual report when we receive it, but the real accounting for this won't be included until second quarter results are released, probably in August. I do believe that we'll be told a lot more about this between now and then. We knew the trial in England could be big with all the hospitals there, this is dramatically bigger as they're including so much more beyond the hospitals.
Gary
A quick look at a chart indicated the highest the stock ever sold for was $2.50, I believe a new all time high won't be that long, and by years end a listing on the Nasdaq is not out of the question.
Gary
Clay,
What you did as a technician may be perfect, but my critcism of technicians is a failure to look at the news. PCTL announced a contract with the U.K. that should be worth billions after the close. This stock will gap tomorrow, and it could be to 5 to 10 times what it's currently selling for, and that would be a bargain. I'd like to hear your estimate after reading about it, but I believe we'll have a gap that will never fill.
Gary
I believe we'll see income growth for the foreseeable future, the U.K. is far from the last country to purchase for their healthcare system, they're the first. I don't know that the U.S. would ever do a centralized purchase, but Canada certainly could, the same can be said of every country where healthcare is provided by the govt.
Dream big about tomorrow, I believe anyone who puts in a sell order in advance of the start of trading is cheating themselves out of a bigger gain, and regardless of the high tomorrow, at the end of this year it will be dramatically higher than that.
The fewer investors willing to sell their shares at any price they might see tomorrow, or through the end of the year, the higher it will go. I certainly can't say how high it could go tomorrow, but I truly believe that dollars are not out of the question. In fact, if anyone could accurately anticipate the earnings from the announcement today, disregarding all the other work the company is doing, I believe a double digit billion dollar market cap would be justified. How quickly can it come> I believe there are Institutions that recognize the value of the contract with the U.K. and they'll be stepping in to buy shares that are priced substantially below the price they can see it rising to.
Don't let them steal you shares cheaply.
Gary
Is it true that their are thousands of institutions, or is this a buy from the Govt. which provides the healthcare. I'm asking, I'm not certain about their system, but I believe this was a Govt. decision to put our products everywhere throughout the healthcare system. Planning for the installations may come from a variety of places, but I believe the purchase will come from the British Govt. I would suspect it will be a purchase rather than a lease.
As always, JMHO.
Gary
I agree, that's what happens when used in CLI, much the same thing is happening here. Again, I don't see that as fighting the coronavirus directly, but it's fixing what it harms, and who know, it might actually fix something that was a problem even before the coronavirus hit.
We still know so little about stem cells. The annual BMT reunion at City of Hope has been delayed this year, I believe this would be there 44th year, if I remember correctly. They still call it BMT because it all started with transplanting bone marrow, and at that time they didn't realize there were stem cells in that marrow, and that's what was doing the job. Many people continue to think about bone marrow transplants, but few if any of the time do they need the marrow anymore. Adult stem cells can be harvested out of the marrow, but it's more painful, but faster. They can also stimulate their production of the stem cells and remove them from the blood in a manner similar to doing leukapheresis, or collecting blood plasma.
I believe we're just touching the possibilities with placental cells, I suspect that ten years from now we'll be amazed at all the applications, I hope to be around to see it.
Gary
Please correct me if someone thinks I have this wrong. It's my belief that our technology will clear up the pneumonia caused by coronavirus, and that's what threatens most peoples life. The disease itself will run it's course. It may be near over by the time the pneumonia is cured, but perhaps not, the main thing is you'd be through the worst of it.
Chris Come has been describing how it's effecting him many nights, I believe it's pretty clear he's better, but far from perfect, and his Doctors seem to be saying he may be tested and found clear of the disease, yet he may have negative side effects for weeks. Now his wife has come down with it, and a 17 year old daughter is supporting the family. This is a nasty disease, I'm sure many will help without making contact, but I think it's clear that someone outside who went into the house could infect themselves without contacting anyone that has it. Hopefully the kids won't acquire it, but it's not because they have not been exposed.
If we can take care of the pneumonia, I'd bet that we'd prevent about 90% of all the deaths from it. When a body is substantially weakened, people with things like heart disease could certainly be threatened by it with, or without the pneumonia.
Gary
If they have something that requires a PR they'll do so before the meeting starts. Otherwise they will PR the results of the meeting, and they may discuss any issues brought up during the meeting.
That said, there is no reason to PR anything with regards to scheduling of trial events, etc. TLD is itself an announcement, you don't need a PR to say you're unblinding the trial, gathering data, etc though it's possible they'll announce it at the AM and discuss it in the post AM release. What the company does, or says is largely up to the company.
A lot of people believe that things like unblinding a trial are material events. If they had a partner in the trial, and if that partner set a milestone with a payment for unblinding, than it would be a material event, since it had cash value. In some cases, even cash doesn't constitute being a material event if it's below some threshold value established by the company. In another company, $1 million wasn't determined to be material.
Perhaps we'll see a PR tomorrow, but I'm not counting on it. I just hope that the meeting goes smoothly and that all who wish to log in can. The thing that's lacking in this sort of virtual meeting is the ability to speak directly with key people, usually after the formal meeting.
Gary
I certainly agree that we'll gap, but I'd also be very surprised if we trade at the initiation of trading, as I believe there will be an imbalance of orders and trading will be halted until the MM's figure it out. I believe any current investor looking to get out shouldn't price their shares under $.50 cents, and that would be a bargain.
Look at the announcement, it's not just hospitals, it's all sorts of healthcare facilities, thousands of them that will be equipped with some sort of PCTL equipment. Frankly it's not clear to me that they'll lease or purchase, but of hand I think it's purchase. Clearly smaller facilities won't have large units, some may share in some way, but clearly the British want to eliminate the risk of infections virtually everywhere throughout their healthcare system.
I believe they're looking to spend billions, possibly double digit billions on all this equipment, but I certainly welcome someone more knowledgeable than me about pricing of the equipment to estimate what this should be worth. I frankly thought this could be huge when I learned they were trying it in their hospitals, it's grown dramatically from there with the expansion into all their healthcare facilities. Can you imagine how big this could get if other nations with government provided healthcare, like much of the rest of the major industrial nations decide to do what the British are doing.
Gary
We know that over 50 have lived beyond 5 years as Dr. Liau gave us a median that was growing for the top 100 that was near 60 months some time ago. I have no idea if it's up to over 70 months by now, or not, but a top 100 that's median is over 60 months is telling everyone that over 5o people in the trial have lived that long, or longer. Now even the last patient to enter the trial is approaching 60 months, it won't be that long before all remaining alive have been so for over 60 months. I don't know how many people that may be, but believe it could be over 50, so that median for the top 100 will just keep going up.
Gary
I think we need to take a closer look at what we're looking to do vs. what most other companies are going for. Most companies are trying to produce benefits in coronavirus, a degree of success could result in substantial use of their drugs.
PSTI on the other hand is going after pneumonia, essentially it means that the other companies products were not effective in preventing it. If we're successful in pneumonia, we'll greatly reduce the threat posed by coronavirus, but we'll not be preventing people from being infected with it.
More importantly, pneumonia won't go away when coronavirus is eliminated with a vaccine, it's the primary killer of people with all sorts of diseases who've been weakened by everything from flu and cold to cancer.
Gary
The way it's dropped this afternoon I might guess that someone passed on. All in the small trial were exceptionally sick, and perhaps there is another reason, or the MM's may be playing games. Let's see if there is more news later today, or before the open tomorrow.
Gary
I suspect that the stock won't open on an imbalance in orders tomorrow morning, no telling how long it will take before an opening price is determined. I wouldn't be surprised by anything, including well over a dollar, the U.K. contract is worth billions. What's a fair market cap for a company bringing in billions.
Now ask yourself, what happens if much of the world takes the British lead and buys in over time. I believe it will happen over the next several years.
Gary
Cherry,
When we discussed a dollar or more by the end of the year, it was before this news. I believe if properly valued, this will bring the company billions by the time all U.K. facilities are fully equipped with our products. If properly evaluated, this could be selling for dollars before the end of this month.
I don't believe the British action will go unnoticed around the world. I believe we'll start seeing orders from everywhere, and we may license others to build our equipment, if we don't expand dramatically ourselves.
With the Institutional investors understanding the value of this agreement, I just can't see the market cap of the company not being well into the billions before the end of this year.
Gary
Yes he did sound positive, but he went out of his way to say it didn't apply to the quarter. I think he knew the quarter would still be down, at least a bit.
With all that's been said recently, I've got to believe that the current quarter and beyond will be cash positive, and for the foreseeable future, each succeeding quarter will be better than the last one.
Gary
Yes he did sound positive, but he went out of his way to say it didn't apply to the quarter. I think he knew the quarter would still be down, at least a bit.
With all that's been said recently, I've got to believe that the current quarter and beyond will be cash positive, and for the foreseeable future, each succeeding quarter will be better than the last one.
Gary
In reality, I can't think of a sport where you can play in a more isolated way. As long as you maintain margins entering and leaving the court, people could be permitted to play tennis. Golf is another game where people can easily maintain a 6 foot or greater distance. Of course no audiences could be permitted for tournament play, but permitting people to play shouldn't be a problem.
I believe that as they begin to think these things out, they'll be able to open up such activities, but scheduling and payment will clearly be done online, just show up at the proper time and play.
Besides walking while maintaining distance, if they really think things through I believe there are other activities they could permit. Maintaining sanitary conditions would be demanded, but I believe that over time they'll find ways of safely opening up many things. I suspect that we'll be using masks until a vaccine is available in many activities, and frankly I don't know if a party with lots of people will be possible for some time, even if all are friends who believe they're fine. Perhaps the worst problem with coronavirus is that you can spread it without ever feeling sick, and you may never get sick, but someone who gets it from you could die. It's a nasty disease.
Gary
Thanks Lorie,
Many years ago I used to love seeing two gentlemen in their 90's playing tennis, they rarely needed to take more than one step. When they played much younger people they put the ball within about a yard or either corner of the court, they could run them ragged, but of course they'd only go after their opponents returns if they didn't need to take more than 2 steps to do so. It's a game I haven't played for years, but thinking of it makes me want to give it another try.
Gary
I believe the last time we had a firm number of surviving patients all were alive at roughly 36 months, or more. I know we've been estimating that somewhere between 50 and 70 of them remain alive, but I'd not be at all surprised if very few of those who made it to 36 months or more have passed on since than. I believe that the count may just be high in the 70's. Remember when our latest patient to enter the trial was 36 months in, far more were 60 or more months in, and I have a feeling that if you make it 5 years, your odds of reaching 10 years are really pretty good.
Old age eventually takes us all, but as a senior today, we're doing things that our parents would never have dreamed of doing at our age. I suspect the same will be true for my kids when they've achieve my age.
I frankly can't say I'll get back to skiing after tangling with both leukemia and back problems, but I've certainly seen many on the mountain having a great time in their 80's. I've know boaters actively sailing into their 90's. Coronavirus may have us isolating, but this too will pass and I look forward to when it does.
Gary
I'm not an expert, but as I understand it, in fracking much of the water pumped in returned in a polluted form that must be disposed of. With PCTL's products and procedures this water may be reprocessed and reused. Costs are greatly reduced as far less fresh water is needed, and disposal costs are dramatically reduced. That's my laymen's view of what's happening, someone may be able to provide a better technical discussion of what happens.
Gary