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I would hope that when we hear about the presentation the company's making in the next few days will indicate that they now have hundreds who've received the drug under compassionate use terms. Trials require formality, blinding, patients on placebo's, etc. and data may not be revealed for months. Compassionate use permits the results to be routinely reported on, it lets the world see what the drug is capable of, even if the medical experts don't like it, they cannot deny the benefits. I hope we've opened the door to all who'd like to save their lives, or that of someone in their family, as most on ventilators cannot make a conscious decision.
I'm fine if simultaneously clinical trials begin, but they'll take much longer even though the regulators are clearly acting far more dynamically then is the norm. I believe hundreds, or thousands who've received the drug under compassionate use terms will speak loads if the greater majority are clearly survivors.
Gary
I certainly cannot say the next time we'll hear from corporate management, but I believe when we do the message will be, we're making money, lots of it. They won't say it that way, but while it will be awhile before it shows up in quarterly reports, I believe by the time they report on this quarter, probably in early August, we'll be amazed at how much money they're bringing in.
I'd not be surprised if we get another podcast, after the news from the U.K., and it won't be that long before the Annual Report should hit. I believe they can take an extension on the first quarter, so that might be early June, but while Gary told us March was profitable, January and February weren't, so I expect a small loss. Our current quarter, and beyond should be game changers, and that's why I believe by end of the year we'll be over $1 and at least be on the OTC, or possibly even the AMEX.
Gary
As I see it, TLD is the end of the beginning. It certainly is a major goal, but there is a lot to do once it happens so the ultimate goal, approval can be achieved. On Saturday it certainly seemed that most who listened in were happy with the conference, though frankly few of our questions were answered. What was important was a commitment that the end was in sight, and for the most part we accepted that.
Based on the stock price, the market accepted it too, but not with a great deal of enthusiasm, that's fine, I believe it will build. In addition to the dates we think we'll get the TLD, it might be interesting to add what we believe the share price will be the day before TLD is announced. If that could be added, I'll guess at $.35 by then.
Out of curiosity, in that they are gathering data on patients, would all those remaining alive undergo complete examination so as to evaluate the likelihood they'd have at living dramatically longer, or will this be a simple verification that they're still alive. I would think in the end they'd want to know if a portion of those that still are alive are essentially in complete remissions, or categorized at some level below that.
Gary
6/29
Gary
If it were up to me, PSTI would make perhaps 1000 doses available at no cost all over the world on a compassionate use bases. The only requirement for each dose would be reporting the initial status of the patient, and an update of that status weekly into a database where all could see the outcome. Not nearly as controlled as a clinical trial, but a ton of anecdotal evidence of efficacy, if that's what it shows. All patients who gain access should be dealing with pneumonia that appears to be potentially headed toward a ventilator, or already be on a ventilator. My point is that such an effort should yield a great deal of information in under a months time as few if any patients outcomes won't be clear after a few weeks of receiving the drug.
We can get great results in 7 patients, or 70 patients, and people like Dr. Fauci will say we need clinical trials. Do it with 1000 patients and perhaps we stand a shot at the FDA saying, let's get this to everyone.
Gary
Unless Germany was working with PSTI's technology well before the announcement, and in volumes much greater than thought, it couldn't have that kind of impact. I would suspect that they tested more, and were better isolating, including the use of masks routinely.
50 of so years ago, when I did some work in Japan, it was quite common then to see people wearing masks. I was told that they were ill, and they were protecting others. My point is, they've recognized the benefits, while it was uncommon to see Americans who clearly don't feel well protecting others with such a practice. Hopefully this is changing, and now we're recognizing that masks can be of benefit for all at a time when people who feel perfectly healthy are actually spreading disease.
I believe I'm like many American's I know, I cannot tell anyone whether I've had a mild case of coronavirus, or not. I've had no fever, but have had a mild sore throat for a number of days, as had my wife. Without testing, I don't see how I can know if I've had it, or haven't. If I have, perhaps I now am protected, and won't be easily infected again, but of course if I haven't had it, as an immune compromised senior, I should remain isolated. Life would be far simpler if people could have a home test, rather like a pregnancy test, that could be delivered in the mail and wouldn't even require lab analysis. Barring that, testing should be available at drugstores, etc that were they type that gave the answer in 5 minutes. No other form of testing machine should be used, other than blood testing which could show if you ever had it. I don't know precisely what they're doing in Germany, but I'd be willing to bet they do a lot more testing. I also don't understand why in the beginning we didn't use the tests successfully developed by others, and fouled up badly in creating our own. I believe the U.S. does many things well, but it's fooling to ignore what's working in the rest of the world and insist on creating our own way of doing everything.
Gary
What do you believe the numbers should be. Should the O/S grow to 800 million or more, I still believe the case would be solid for the growth I'm suggesting. No company wants to use every authorized share they have available, I believe that if they went to 800 million they'd either want shareholders to authorize a lot more shares, say 1.5 billion, or at least a small reverse split, I'd rather authorize the additional shares.
This company can either become an industrial giant in this sector, or be bought out by a company that's big in the sanitizing area today. Personally I'd like to see it remain independent, but for enough billions, I'd be fine with such a buyout. Independently, I don't think it's currently possible to say just how high our market cap could go over say the next 5 or 10 years.
Gary
What they're doing may not be utilizing PSTI's technology, but I believe they'll learn they can benefit a few people with a single placenta, while PSTI can get 20,000 doses that produce similar benefits from a single placenta. I believe any benefits seen in Miami will lead to PSTI for much more massive dosing.
Gary
Britt,
I believe there is a step in between that's owned by Nasdaq, that's the AMEX and I believe $1 a share can qualify. While I believe that once we've hit $1 it won't be that much longer to $4, if I'm right it wouldn't be a bad move to move to the AMEX.
Personally, I've never like the dollar based qualification, it makes no sense to me that a company with a multi-billion dollar market cap doesn't qualify because their share price is still below $4, while a company with a tiny fraction of their market cap may qualify because they have so few shares outstanding. I really believe some market cap should be required to qualify, and perhaps about a quarter of that maintained to remain, but not based on a dollar price for the stock which typically encourages reverse splits to achieve, or remain on the Nasdaq. In very few cases have I seen a reverse split work, though PSTI did one to stay on the Nasdaq awhile ago, and it may work out well.
When people put down a company for too many shares outstanding I suggest they have a look at Apple, of course they were below a billion shares before they did a 7 for 1 split.
Gary
Even if dilutive financing takes the O/S up substantially, say to 700 million, $4 would represent a $2.8 billion dollar market cap. With a P/E of 10, earnings would need to be $280 million. I believe that with what's been announced just this week that won't be a problem within a year or so.
However, I don't really believe the company will be saying stop, we have all the sales we ever want. I believe the news is certainly going to attract more customers, and with each new customer others will see the benefits, and more customers will come. As this expands all over the U.K. do you suspect the French may see it, how about the Italians, etc.etc.etc.
I believe we're looking at the company that's changing sanitation, not just in hospitals, but in all sorts of places. If I'm right about this, either this will blow right through that $4 required for the Nasdaq and move up to well into double, or even triple digit billions, or at some point it will be bought out, and I'd be saddened if it weren't for at least double digit billions. Investors will be very well served, just give it a little time.
Gary
I don't believe any terms have been announced, I don't generally think that Governments will lease, rather than purchase, but regardless, with an order of this size, I'm sure there will be a substantial discount from the list price.
Gary
I thought that one of the more interesting comments from the meeting was the comment on how they've had to go back to all of the patients, many who've passed on, and find information that they knew nothing about when the trial was initiated. Fortunately, they found a way of doing it, probably from blood tests, but I'm not sure of that.
It sounds like the trial will in part be judged by factors that were totally unknown at the time the trial began.
Gary
They didn't state that, but they couldn't be collecting the data if that were not the case IMHO. The only way it's not the case is if they've agreed to disagree on how the trial is to be judged, but I don't think that's the case.
We now have an estimated completion date, to me it's a major step in the right direction.
Gary
I would hope that this week we learn not only the progress for the patients we know about, but also learn that many more have been added under compassionate use. Ultimately a multinational trials should be announced, I just don't know if the company will undertake it, or if they're attempting to have it funded by other sources.
I believe we're all living in limbo, we don't even know if we carry the disease even though we feel fine. What's really needed is a simple, self administered test, something that worked rather like a pregnancy test, just a little spit, pee, etc on the test point and in a little time it shows positive or negative.
It's my understanding that the 5 minute test equipment is now available in every state, however the Federal Govt. is holding, and parceling out the materials needed to make it work. It's sad that with each test equipment package, all that would be needed to test say 10,000 people were included.
The Federal Govt needs to get all the stuff it's holding out to the states, stories of how they confiscated PPE, etc that states, cities, or hospitals have ordered, and nothing is delivered to those who ordered it needs to stop. Building an inventory of the needed materials by the Fed's is fine if they do so by ordering it, but not by confiscating what's previously been ordered by others.
Gary
I believe the late June early July scenario should work with presenting the full data at SNO. Abstracts are required before then, but I'm pretty sure a placeholder can be filed and updated. Here's a link to the SNO site:
https://www.soc-neuro-onc.org/SNO/MY_SNO/SNO/News/2020_SNO_Annual_Meeting.aspx
I think the company will meet, or come very close to meeting their schedule, and I'd actually hope that they left themselves some wiggle room that if not needed may exceed the schedule.
I'd like to ask a question of those who previously attending their annual meeting. While I'm satisfied to have a time line, I'm wondering if those who attended meetings were able to have more specific questions answered in that more limited forum. Personally I'd like to see a combination of both, a live meeting that was webcast, so those in attendance could meet with and question the presenters, while all could listen in to at least a big part of the presentation.
It will be interesting to see if between now and when top line data is announced if Dr. Liau might have a presentation that fills in some of the blanks, like how many remain alive, or what the median is currently for the Top 100 data she previously discussed. If not, many of the blanks will be filled in with TLD, and hopefully it will all be available at SNO.
Gary
While I would certainly have liked to hear more, I believe the key information we wanted was answered, TLD late June, early July. The fact that the company stated they're fully blinded until the data's compiled may also be saying that things like the number still alive may be know by Dr. Liau, but the company is blinded to it unless she makes a presentation that's open to others as well.
It may not be all we'd hope for, but I believe it positive, and I believe Monday should be an up day, and it will continue to move up as we head toward unblinding and announcement of TLD.
Gary
Out of curiosity, did anyone get in with the password. I too am in as a guest.
Gary
It's only illegal if it's tied to a material event that the SEC defines as requiring a release. I believe they can speak about the trial, goals for completing it, timelines, etc without violating any SEC rules, but after the meeting they should release the results along with at least the highlights of the discussion. I believe they're also going to have the meeting available on archive, so no one will be left out of the information discussed there.
Gary
It looks like we won't get a PR today, perhaps tomorrow before the meeting if there is something that must have a PR before they can discuss it. Frankly, I believe they're free to discuss practically everything we're interested in without a PR, mainly because they don't come tied to monetary deposits, and it's that that make them material events.
.
I'm hoping we come away from the meeting with a much greater knowledge of what's happening, and hopefully some firm guidelines as to when it will happen. A PR should be released after the meeting that will confirm the outcome of the election, but also can discuss anything brought up during the meeting, so guidance should be available to all, not only those who listened in.
If we're satisfied with what we hear, the share price will no doubt be higher on Monday, if we're left with questions or doubts, I suspect we'll bobble along between $.14 and $.20. Let's how the call goes well, and that we can all get in.
Gary
I'm stopping my guesses as to what the stock will do day to day. Yesterday I read the release on the U.K. and it was so much more than the company had ever indicated it could be. I imagined the stock opening anywhere between a dime and a dollar.
I'm not saying the company didn't tell us about the U.K., but who would have thought that besides all of their hospitals they'd commit to the use of our equipment in virtually all of their healthcare facilities. I certainly don't know precisely how they're intending to do it, but the totals for all the units they'll be purchasing or leasing will go into the thousands, if not tens of thousands. While I'm sure they're getting a break on the retail price, this still has to be a multi-billion dollar undertaking on their part. I can't say how much emphasis coronavirus may have placed on their decision, but with or without coronavirus, hospital acquired infections have become a major problem all over the world.
I frankly don't care if we gap up to $.10 or not, I don't believe that every gap must fill, but many do. I would be very surprised if by the end of the month we're not a dime or more, but more importantly, by this time next year that we'll be well beyond $1.
Gary
While we're in agreement Cherry, I had expected more on the U.K. news, and lacking that, I felt I had to add more. I don't mind averaging up when I'm confident a stock is going higher, and I've never been surer of that happening in any stock than I am in this.
No one knows precisely how quickly the hospitals and other medical facilities in the U.K. will be equipped with our system, but the release made it sound like the target is by the end of next year. If that's the case, I believe our earnings could be over $1 a share by next year, if not before, with any reasonable P/E you're into double digit dollar share prices.
Gary
I'm not certain of anything, but perhaps next week in the presentation by the company we'll learn what's being done in Germany. I believe what they're doing is more like a trial, rather than compassionate use, which is producing some positive anecdotal evidence, but not the sort of thing that impresses people like Dr. Fauci.
I believe most of the other products under development are largely intended to treat coronavirus once it's been diagnosed, but by the time people have developed pneumonia, they will be of little benefit. Once pneumonia develops, hopefully PLX-PAD can be applied, ideally before a ventilator is needed, but certainly once people are being put on ventilators. I'm of the belief that if it's used prior to requiring a ventilator, far fewer will advance to the point where they need it.
We have roughly a month before the numbers are greatly reduced, not that there still won't be many patients to treat, but it might be a tiny fraction of the number on ventilators today. If we can get this done before most State's return to some degree of normalcy, should it reemerge in the Fall or Winter we'll be approved by then, and the death rate should be greatly diminished. It won't end the threat, but it will be less deadly, and then we should get a vaccine. If we get that approval, we'll be saving a lot of lives in the future as it becomes the SOC for the treatment of pneumonia regardless of the cause.
Gary
I agree, just increased my holdings. After yesterday's news I never thought I could buy it for single digit pennies, I don't think it will stay there very long.
Gary
I believe time will prove you right, but right now only people who were familiar with the company know anything about it. By the time the price approaches $1 it will be more of a household name, and as revenue kicks in, we'll see far greater prices as both Institutional, and individual investors recognize the value we already know exist in the company.
Gary
I've not read nearly all the posts since last night, and frankly I fail to understand why the market didn't have a greater reaction to the news, but regardless, at these prices the stock is a screaming buy.
I know the company has set up the organization in the U.K., which they own, but it's very possible that that organization, not the U.S., may be manufacturing all the equipment for the contract, it shouldn't matter. As I see it, this contract alone is something between ten and one hundred times the business the company has been doing. I cannot say how much revenue we'll see in this quarter, but by next quarter it should be huge, and even bigger in the fourth quarter. I believe all that revenue is easily going to make our stock worth well into single digit dollars, and if additional contracts come in, as they seem to be, double digit dollars is not out of the question at all.
Let's allow for dilution and say our O/S goes to 750 million shares. Does anyone not believe that we could bring in $250 million in earnings. With a P/E of 10 we have a market cap of $2.5 billion, the share price would be $3.33 with a P/E of 30, the market cap is $7.5 billion, thus a share price of $10. I believe this is a low-ball estimate of what the total business the company is doing with both the U.K. contract and what appears to be a very rapidly growing demand for both equipment and fluids here in the U.S.
I certainly welcome others thoughts, but I believe that we've simply not yet seen that much market exposure, but when we do, you won't see this below $1 ever again.
Gary
I believe we need to get it into more patients, even if it's all anecdotal evidence, people on ventilators, especially if they've been there a long time, often don't make it. It appears the American who had the treatment is near coming off the ventilator just days after getting it, he was on the ventilator about 3 weeks before treatment. Last night ABC L.A. did a story about a younger patient they appeared ready to give up on, I suggested to the station they attempt to get compassionate use from PSTI.
Without a grant they may not be able to fund a full blown trial, and frankly I believe they should get some support in doing a trial. We should hear more next week at their presentation.
As for other drugs gaining approval, it may remove a few patients, but those who get serious pneumonia won't benefit from the other treatments, they will from PLX-PAD. Likewise people with flu based pneumonia, or who get it from other reasons will also get the benefits. This just needs to play its way out.
Gary
I would suspect that after the U.K. news is seen around the world there could be much interest from both countries that have nationalized healthcare, as well as from HMO's, major hospitals, etc. Clearly the British put this to the test and jumped in with both feet. I think Canada might be a natural for the next country to commit if we play our cards right.
Gary
Apple has over 4 billion shares outstanding, perhaps you should tell them that they have a problem.
Gary
While I agree, this is huge, we really don't know the terms of the contract. I suspect they'll purchase, not lease, but regardless, they should get a substantial discount over someone getting one or a few units to sanitize one hospital.
Regardless of how they're going to pay, or where these units are to be made, this should be worth somewhere in the billions over a few years. This order is so big that it wouldn't surprise me if some, or all the equipment is manufactured in the U.K. It would take some time to set up, but it may be a logical way to handle this large an order.
I expect more details may be in the annual report when we receive it, but the real accounting for this won't be included until second quarter results are released, probably in August. I do believe that we'll be told a lot more about this between now and then. We knew the trial in England could be big with all the hospitals there, this is dramatically bigger as they're including so much more beyond the hospitals.
Gary
A quick look at a chart indicated the highest the stock ever sold for was $2.50, I believe a new all time high won't be that long, and by years end a listing on the Nasdaq is not out of the question.
Gary
Clay,
What you did as a technician may be perfect, but my critcism of technicians is a failure to look at the news. PCTL announced a contract with the U.K. that should be worth billions after the close. This stock will gap tomorrow, and it could be to 5 to 10 times what it's currently selling for, and that would be a bargain. I'd like to hear your estimate after reading about it, but I believe we'll have a gap that will never fill.
Gary
I believe we'll see income growth for the foreseeable future, the U.K. is far from the last country to purchase for their healthcare system, they're the first. I don't know that the U.S. would ever do a centralized purchase, but Canada certainly could, the same can be said of every country where healthcare is provided by the govt.
Dream big about tomorrow, I believe anyone who puts in a sell order in advance of the start of trading is cheating themselves out of a bigger gain, and regardless of the high tomorrow, at the end of this year it will be dramatically higher than that.
The fewer investors willing to sell their shares at any price they might see tomorrow, or through the end of the year, the higher it will go. I certainly can't say how high it could go tomorrow, but I truly believe that dollars are not out of the question. In fact, if anyone could accurately anticipate the earnings from the announcement today, disregarding all the other work the company is doing, I believe a double digit billion dollar market cap would be justified. How quickly can it come> I believe there are Institutions that recognize the value of the contract with the U.K. and they'll be stepping in to buy shares that are priced substantially below the price they can see it rising to.
Don't let them steal you shares cheaply.
Gary
Is it true that their are thousands of institutions, or is this a buy from the Govt. which provides the healthcare. I'm asking, I'm not certain about their system, but I believe this was a Govt. decision to put our products everywhere throughout the healthcare system. Planning for the installations may come from a variety of places, but I believe the purchase will come from the British Govt. I would suspect it will be a purchase rather than a lease.
As always, JMHO.
Gary
I agree, that's what happens when used in CLI, much the same thing is happening here. Again, I don't see that as fighting the coronavirus directly, but it's fixing what it harms, and who know, it might actually fix something that was a problem even before the coronavirus hit.
We still know so little about stem cells. The annual BMT reunion at City of Hope has been delayed this year, I believe this would be there 44th year, if I remember correctly. They still call it BMT because it all started with transplanting bone marrow, and at that time they didn't realize there were stem cells in that marrow, and that's what was doing the job. Many people continue to think about bone marrow transplants, but few if any of the time do they need the marrow anymore. Adult stem cells can be harvested out of the marrow, but it's more painful, but faster. They can also stimulate their production of the stem cells and remove them from the blood in a manner similar to doing leukapheresis, or collecting blood plasma.
I believe we're just touching the possibilities with placental cells, I suspect that ten years from now we'll be amazed at all the applications, I hope to be around to see it.
Gary
Please correct me if someone thinks I have this wrong. It's my belief that our technology will clear up the pneumonia caused by coronavirus, and that's what threatens most peoples life. The disease itself will run it's course. It may be near over by the time the pneumonia is cured, but perhaps not, the main thing is you'd be through the worst of it.
Chris Come has been describing how it's effecting him many nights, I believe it's pretty clear he's better, but far from perfect, and his Doctors seem to be saying he may be tested and found clear of the disease, yet he may have negative side effects for weeks. Now his wife has come down with it, and a 17 year old daughter is supporting the family. This is a nasty disease, I'm sure many will help without making contact, but I think it's clear that someone outside who went into the house could infect themselves without contacting anyone that has it. Hopefully the kids won't acquire it, but it's not because they have not been exposed.
If we can take care of the pneumonia, I'd bet that we'd prevent about 90% of all the deaths from it. When a body is substantially weakened, people with things like heart disease could certainly be threatened by it with, or without the pneumonia.
Gary
If they have something that requires a PR they'll do so before the meeting starts. Otherwise they will PR the results of the meeting, and they may discuss any issues brought up during the meeting.
That said, there is no reason to PR anything with regards to scheduling of trial events, etc. TLD is itself an announcement, you don't need a PR to say you're unblinding the trial, gathering data, etc though it's possible they'll announce it at the AM and discuss it in the post AM release. What the company does, or says is largely up to the company.
A lot of people believe that things like unblinding a trial are material events. If they had a partner in the trial, and if that partner set a milestone with a payment for unblinding, than it would be a material event, since it had cash value. In some cases, even cash doesn't constitute being a material event if it's below some threshold value established by the company. In another company, $1 million wasn't determined to be material.
Perhaps we'll see a PR tomorrow, but I'm not counting on it. I just hope that the meeting goes smoothly and that all who wish to log in can. The thing that's lacking in this sort of virtual meeting is the ability to speak directly with key people, usually after the formal meeting.
Gary
I certainly agree that we'll gap, but I'd also be very surprised if we trade at the initiation of trading, as I believe there will be an imbalance of orders and trading will be halted until the MM's figure it out. I believe any current investor looking to get out shouldn't price their shares under $.50 cents, and that would be a bargain.
Look at the announcement, it's not just hospitals, it's all sorts of healthcare facilities, thousands of them that will be equipped with some sort of PCTL equipment. Frankly it's not clear to me that they'll lease or purchase, but of hand I think it's purchase. Clearly smaller facilities won't have large units, some may share in some way, but clearly the British want to eliminate the risk of infections virtually everywhere throughout their healthcare system.
I believe they're looking to spend billions, possibly double digit billions on all this equipment, but I certainly welcome someone more knowledgeable than me about pricing of the equipment to estimate what this should be worth. I frankly thought this could be huge when I learned they were trying it in their hospitals, it's grown dramatically from there with the expansion into all their healthcare facilities. Can you imagine how big this could get if other nations with government provided healthcare, like much of the rest of the major industrial nations decide to do what the British are doing.
Gary
We know that over 50 have lived beyond 5 years as Dr. Liau gave us a median that was growing for the top 100 that was near 60 months some time ago. I have no idea if it's up to over 70 months by now, or not, but a top 100 that's median is over 60 months is telling everyone that over 5o people in the trial have lived that long, or longer. Now even the last patient to enter the trial is approaching 60 months, it won't be that long before all remaining alive have been so for over 60 months. I don't know how many people that may be, but believe it could be over 50, so that median for the top 100 will just keep going up.
Gary
I think we need to take a closer look at what we're looking to do vs. what most other companies are going for. Most companies are trying to produce benefits in coronavirus, a degree of success could result in substantial use of their drugs.
PSTI on the other hand is going after pneumonia, essentially it means that the other companies products were not effective in preventing it. If we're successful in pneumonia, we'll greatly reduce the threat posed by coronavirus, but we'll not be preventing people from being infected with it.
More importantly, pneumonia won't go away when coronavirus is eliminated with a vaccine, it's the primary killer of people with all sorts of diseases who've been weakened by everything from flu and cold to cancer.
Gary
The way it's dropped this afternoon I might guess that someone passed on. All in the small trial were exceptionally sick, and perhaps there is another reason, or the MM's may be playing games. Let's see if there is more news later today, or before the open tomorrow.
Gary