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they are, there is a book entirely written explaining the fiasco that came out in 2012
thanks for the link, i have not been to that site in years. like i said it was pure robbery but wamu was not a clean entity. jpm fleeced us all, I am a trader, mostly options on commodities and flipper of high volatile stocks.
I can remember that day like it was yesterday, I was day trading wamu and was very involved in trying to learn all I could about the financial crisis and risk/reward of going long wamu thinking that no way would the feds let them fail, they were to big. So I took a 40k position to hold until the dust settled or at least going into the weekend, because I thought I knew that the feds only seize banks over the weekend and of course this was thursday.
the rest is history, 40k down the drain overnight but I do have escrows and I flipped wamuq as a penny play to recoup some of my losses which I did, not whole but about half.
I have recently added a large chunk of wmih because I think they are going to try to make a name for themselves in the m/a world and use the nol's nicely. I think wmih can be at 10 bucks in 2 years.
Here is the story I believe and I have stated it here once so I will be brief. goldman needed aig to survive because they were insured through them. jpm was in worse shape and was self insured so they needed wamu for their liquidity to shore up their books and paulson bought in and told bair to seize them and turn them over to jpm.
from a news article about the failure of wamu
like which ones, i am going by memory
Time for a realty check. Yes, I hold escrows so please don't say I'm just jealous or something. I'm just trying to be a realist.
You guys want to paint wamu as this wonderful entity that was thriving when the big bad banks, other than wamu, created the financial crisis and dragged wamu down with them. That is not how the story goes and if you are honest with yourselves you will be better served regarding your escrow shares. We can dream all we want but if escrows get anything it will surprise me and if they are made whole I would be more than shocked. It just is not how the game is played.
Wamu was a disaster in the worse way leading up to the seizure. Keep in mind where they were at.
1. 60% of their loan portfolio was subprime and 75% of that was no doc loans.
2. Wamu had multiple runs on the bank to the tune of over 20 billion.
3. Their last quarter before the bk they lost 3.5 billion and set aside several more billion for bad loans. This was all after receiving the 7 billion in private equity.
4. Their valuation was at best $10 bucks a share prior to the free fall and at the time of seizure was a buck and the weeks leading up to the seizure it was a few bucks. JPM offered them 8 bucks a share several months earlier and the ceo wanted 12. How valuable were they really if they ceo was going to sell for 12.
Yes, there were games played and jpm disgusts me in many ways so in no way am I pro jpm.
Also, the fdic disgusts me also but not as much as jpm.
But the bottom line is that in no way are the numbers you are talking realistic regarding a return to escrow. First off, the fdic/feds have been making huge settlements with the banks for the fraudulent loans made. Do you actually think they will let escrows profit handsomely and let wamu off the hook. You can talk indemnified all you want, it's not going to happen.
The holding company was left with nothing but the NOL's. The only asset that I see in dispute is the 4 billion in cash that was in the holding companies name, and the way that they were forced to sign over the 4 billion to wamu, the bank.
Why wmih has not gone after that money I don't understand.
You can assume all you want but facts are facts and the fact is wmih has the NOL's and 650 million in cash and huge dilution once the first deal is done. I'm good with that as a starting point for a new m/a company with some very powerful partners.
I looked up the 100+ billion that jpm is going to shed and more than likely it is just cash from other fed reserve banks being held at jpm for zero interest and they want to get rid of it to make the regulators happy.
I just don't see the feds one day cutting a check and saying nice job for hanging on to your escrows here is 100x your money.
I am much more interested in what wmih is going to do moving forward and would really like to know what happened to the 4 billion that was forced over to jpm.
Did the wamu situation save jpm, yes, imo, they were screwed without the games they could play with the wamu deposits to shore up their books but that is all water under the bridge. jpm survived and wamu failed. In the right circumstances it could have easily been the other way around, problem was jpm was connected and wamu was not. End of story.
ot: watch cnbc, talking about how out of control the feds were regarding what to do. the transcript is now public record. would like to get my hands on the transcript
That is why I asked the question. Every step of the way LEH creditors were informed regarding potential recovery. Happens all the time. Why in the wamu case not one word, nada regarding recovery. By now you would think this information would be pouring out. Why nothing to inform creditors or share holders of escrows.
Also, this impacts recent share holders of wmih, from a material information perspective you would think this info would be somewhat telling as well.
When wmih moves to a real exchange all this should be cleared up.
Luke warm on escrow recovery, it would be a fortunate bonus.
I wish more talk about wmih and their business model moving forward would actually be discussed and not just escrows.
Those advocating escrows are in for a big payday, humor me for a minute. Just how do you think the process for payout is going to work. What assets are going to be turned over to wmi and in what form. 10's of billions of dollars in cash and/or mortgage pools worth 100s of billions of dollars that jpm has been servicing for wmi and the profits associated with the servicing over the years and then also the mortgages themselves which will now be serviced by a wmi owned entity. Just curious on how you think this will work.
Lastly, do you have any precedence that you know of where this has happened before, ie, lehman, bear, or any other examples.
Some of what you say is compelling it just doesn't make sense especially so under the radar that no one really knows what's really going on.
Waiting for a response that may allow me to say I like my escrow shares, lol
Those of you who are speculating that cpmk is going to merge with wmih, I'm very skeptical. This company is a pink sheets company that is non reporting.
I find it very surprising that anyone involved in wmih is involved in cpmk and/or visa versa.
Their chart is worse than most pump and dumps, very consistently over the past 2/3 years they have had major dumps and share price has fallen from very lofty levels.
No real company performs like this that I have ever seen, I would never want to be in bed with these guys. Look at their chart, the only time I have seen charts like this is when they are set up to dump shares.
I would like someone to explain their chart to me.
Below is the warning listed on the otc markets website and the warning for cpmk
No Information Warning
This company may not be making material information publicly available.
If you are an affiliate, employee, insider, or any person in possession of nonpublic material information about this company, please be advised that buying or selling this security may constitute trading "on the basis of" material nonpublic information prohibited under Section 10(b) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 and Rules 10b-5 and 10b5-1 thereunder. Violators of these laws are subject to civil and criminal penalties.
thanks for the explanation.
I agree with your statement below. Let's talk wmih instead of just escrows.
P.S. I think Bk/Exdimer have done a great job of explaining MBS to this board. Now lets get on to to who WMIH will acquire.
ExDimer, I believe you are who you say you are. With that in mind can you explain this statement from Lake at jpm. Can you give a couple of examples of what this 100 billion could consist of and why you think in no way do any of these funds belong to wmih.
Thx.
"Lake said the bank plans to reduce $100 billion in large "non-operating" deposits by the end of the year in order to prepare for new capital requirement rules to be unveiled this year.
"Exiting these deposit balances is a rational economic decision," Lake said in her presentation, which described the deposits as mostly from financial institutions that cost the bank money."
leucadia has zero direct stake in fxcm if fxcm pays off the debt as scheduled. as a very astute poster said, if fxcm was unable to pay the debt, they surely would not have made their first payment early and for more than obligated to do so. if fxcm was in any kind of trouble they would be hoarding all their money not paying off their debt ahead of schedule. crusen, nice try but watch out above
that is not entirely true. if there is money coming back to shareholders of wamu and we were given escrow shares,place holders, your telling me that others will not try to come after that money. please, when money is in play you know what happens.
why no preemptive strike. lawyers like to sue and that is the only way "justice" happens if it ever does in these types of situations, ie, little guy vs government and/or jpm.
this would be the greatest correction of an injustice ever in a financial world, ever. Could the feds/jpm damage control people spin out of this, yes, will they, then it becomes very political.
Can they give the money back on the down low, IMPOSSIBLE. All the fines that these corrupt, fraudulent banks have had to pay the feds in fines, all of them combined have not paid 100 billion, and everyone of the fines paid by the big banks is highly publicized.
I could see the headlines now, fdic/jpm return 100 billion dollars to shareholders harmed in the take over of wamu. Every former shareholder that holds shares makes 100x their initial investment.
Next up, class action after class action lawsuit against wmih for not better explaining why those that sold should not have.
This is very interesting, If any of this speculation is true about those funds a lawsuit should be filed explaining wamu's position. Not only that, if wamu has any knowledge about what is going on, it is a material event.
I do have to ask, why the escrow shares/markers, what was/is the end game.
this is becoming very interesting.
if there have already been assets sold it is a material event and would have had to be reported asap. sorry dude, keep on trying. you in no way thought fxcm would be ahead of schedule with payment. don't worry though, you will have time to cover monday, just don't get greedy and get caught in the squeeze. just buy back your short position first thing in the morning and you won't get hurt.
Go back and read the citi anlysts reports/articles. He was basically saying that all the assets would be gone. He basically said that leucadia would force the sale of all the assets or take over all the assets of fxcm and they would be left with nothing but a shell. Well, when you pay cash ahead of schedule to pay down your debt in no way was that what the citi analyst and for that matter you thought would happen. You are basically spinning your wheels to figure out how to get out of your position before the squeeze begins.
Longs or those thinking to go long, the best value to play this imo is to take half your fxcm investment dollars and go long with stock and the other half buy the augie 2.5/calls for .4 or lower.
Good luck to longs, this could get very interesting very soon.
I think you missed a major piece of the jpm story.
"Lake said the bank plans to reduce $100 billion in large "non-operating" deposits by the end of the year in order to prepare for new capital requirement rules to be unveiled this year."
You guys are turning me just a bit, a couple of weeks ago I said no way in heck would escrows see a penny but with the new jpm 10k and this off balance sheet info coming out and Lake stating the above, ie, non-operating (which means to me) non useable (because the money is not theirs nor is it accounted for) deposits ( means that if it a deposit, there has to be an owner of the deposits).
To me the question is weather these are the wamu deposits and if so, will the fdic try to steal the money for the feds. Not to dissimilar to all the fines that the feds are collecting from these banks due to the b.s. the banks pulled with the synthetic cdo's or fraudulently rated mortgages.
What I don't understand, is the bod of wmih and their lawyers must understand the game being played and why have they not sued jpm regarding any of the deposits. They must know more that message board users regarding what is going on.
Crazy but I have to say for the first time, hmmmmmmmm.
crusen, wrong again, the citi analyst in specific said that fxcm would struggle to meet these payments and the way the deal was structured, the end would be near for fxcm and luecadia would be the owner of all of fxcm assets. I would say that paying cold hard cash ahead of schedule is not exactly what the citi analyst in bed with the shorts said. the rich dude decided to bail on his short position and I expect during the first squeeze you will as well. sorry for the bad news for shorties.
Any time you get over 15% of the float short the opportunity for a squeeze is huge. With only 47 mil shares outstanding and insiders holding 17% watch out above should a squeeze happen, the chase will be on for the shorts to cover. They better hope that big news does not come out, this float is so small.
Share Statistics
Avg Vol (3 month)3: 10,073,500
Avg Vol (10 day)3: 2,923,790
Shares Outstanding5: 47.16M
Float: 43.68M
% Held by Insiders1: 17.28%
% Held by Institutions1: 103.60%
Shares Short (as of Jan 30, 2015)3: 14.33M
Short Ratio (as of Jan 30, 2015)3: 0.60
Short % of Float (as of Jan 30, 2015)3: 36.40%
Shares Short (prior month)3: 6.32M
if true, some of what you say may make sense, it just surprises me that cpmk is a pink sheet company, and non reporting to boot. maybe these guys bought a shell and thought of a way to use the shell to their benefit. What I know about pinkies and otcbb, other then bk's they are 99% scams used for pump and dump purposes. of course bk are different they have to go to the pinks, the problem with cpmk is they are non reporting but who knows why the are a pinkie.
for wmih, one of the most important objectives, I hope, is to get listed on the naz or nyse. I know they have stated as such, when that happens all pieces should fall in place.
This brings up an opportunity. Is it public record when a company applies for acceptance to trade at a major exchange. does anyone know if that info is available. thx
so i see one of our friends is no longer shorting, he put up a good battle, if smart, that rich dude would go long, it will make him richer, i recommend the augie 250/calls, can get them for .30 for certain and if worked hard for .28.
Who of you is recommending wmih acquire cpmk, have you lost your mind(s). This company is a non reporting pink sheet stock.
With KKR and Citi involved do you actually think this is the type of deal wmih is trying to make. If so, either you guys are nuts or I am., lol.
funny you should mention this. I also use tda and I contacted them about their news feeds. They are all messed up.
A good merge partner, it's an otcbb traded stock. I personally have much bigger expectations regarding what type of company wmih is going to acquire.
can you explain the impact of cpmk on wmih, thx, not familiar with it, thx
do you actually think the feds are going to turn over billions of dollars to wmih. you have what by the bean bags. what lawsuits have been filed to claim that money or assets. sheesh
just explain me one thing, how is this proof going to come out
please explain why, i'm loaded up with augie 2.5/calls,
You guys are so focused on your escrows it cracks me up. I probably have more than most and I could care less. What I care about is the potential growth opportunities for this company. Is the ceo on the up and up and looking to grow this company or is he going to screw current share holders for his own benefit, and kkr and citi's benefit only. Think about it, what happens when the first deal is cut, you all know the answer, so if you think that kkr and citi just want the fees and could care less about all the shares they will have I doubt it.
I continue to buy shares, avg in every few weeks or so and have been from the 70 cent mark. All in my IRA, in my kids accounts etc.. I'm banking the ceo is a player and really wants to maximize the nol's and to do that he needs to buy very profitable companies or companies with a ton of mid term potential. This is going to be fun. How else would you explain that the stock is stagnant at these levels. Those in the know want the sp where it is so they can continue to accumulate. Plain and simple.
What happens to share price when we go to the naz or nyse with a company under are belt with a low p/e. Think about it.
Owe I could care less about my escrows. lol
simply stated, All things created equal the simplest or less complex explanation is usually correct.
So in the case of jpm and goldman, was it less complex for Paulson to bail out aig and directly pass through the funds to goldman and was it less complex to steal wamu for jpm or would it have been less complex for paulson to deal with those companies after they declared bankruptcy. Paulson stated directly that he did not care what he did to save the investment banks because the alternative was worse. He was shaking when he stated that he truly believed if congress would not have authorized the bailout, cash stations would have been turned off and the banks would have froze all assets. all in my opinion and mine alone
Good point, not only that, remember the young female reporter that was getting close to the truth, I think her name is Kristin Grind, she was digging and digging and reporting and she was shut down with a book deal with I think a 650k advance. Who do you think silenced her, the book came out a few years later, never read it, but I heard it was a complete sellout to those that paid her off. Anyone read the book and care to respond.
You are so right on the point that jpm was in deep, deep trouble. I remember the situation like it was yesterday and I researched the heck out of it at the time. The rumor was the Paulson went to Goldman, ie, Blankfein and asked him what is going on, why is everything crashing, Blankfien played dumb. A month went by and he went back to Blankfien and told him directly to tell him what the f is going on. Blankfien finally confessed that they were caught up in huge losses related to synthetic cdo's. Blankfien then told him not to worry we are insured through AIG. Paulson at the time knew he had to do anything in his power to bail out AIG to keep Goldman liquid and afloat. Then Paulson went to JPM and snake oil salesman, Jamie boy, and asked him if they were caught in the synthetic cdo's and Jamie boy said yes, Paulson said don't worry we are going to bail out AIG so you will be protected. Jamie boy had to tell him something that Paulson was shocked about, JPM's synthetic cdo's were not insured by AIG because supposedly they did not want to pay the premiums, so Jamie boy had to tell Paulson that jpm was self insured. Paulson supposedly said wtf did you do. That is when Jamie boy told Paulson that all they need is liquidity and he knows where they could get it. Remember, jpm knew wamu's books backwards and forwards because in the spring they made an offer to buy wamu before wamu was bailed out by .....( i forgot the name of the firm). So the only way to save jpm was to sacrifice wamu to get jpm the liquidity they needed otherwise they were dead, ie, bankrupt and Paulson could not let the prestiges goldman or jpm go Bk, to big and important to fail, and the rest is history.
Is this all true, is it partially true or complete b.s. I DON'T Know but this is what I have heard and read. All in my opinion and mine alone. Will I give up my sources, no way, I'm pleading the fifth and shutting up just like the cowards at jpm and goldman and wamu execs have done to protect their own azzes, so sad but I believe true. Take it with a grain of salt, believe it or not. Let me add one more thing. Think occams razor!!!!
Hey Peeps, analysts say fxcm far from dead.
http://www.benzinga.com/stock/FXCM/ratings
probably not back to book value. most likely, book value cut dramatically as part of a lbo or if private investor, major dilution in commons. For those trapped in this, the best chance to recoup your money is if the insiders can fund/collateralize the losses and resume business as is, unlikely but possible. good luck
I wonder if neverending is on vacation, or did he go long on the triple secret htc settlement, surprised have not heard from him regarding the 10q.
you have got to be kidding, just a few questions, what are you going to say when wmih joins the naz as discussed by the chairman of wmih, or what are you going to say when the m/a takes place and what are you going to say when share price stair steps upward,just curious, what are you going to say.
It's been a long time since I posted but here goes. Being a long time holder of shares I have followed the proceedings from the 1000ft level. After the latest involvement of kkr and citi and the game plan starting to come to the forefront I have added substantially to my share total.
Naysayers have a lot of past history to use as ammunition but come on dudes, it's a new day. Do you really think that WMIH with it's current bod and involvement with kkr and citi are still out to screw the retail shareholder, I don't.
It was a waiting game and with the company listed on the pinks, the market makers have the ability to play games with share price, we all know that. Still, hasn't sp gone up 4 fold since the shell was established.
We always all "thought" the nol's were the lynch pin to opportunity but did anyone know exactly how to max benefit from them. No, because there were so many unknowns, reg requirements, legalities, time frames, etc.. Now we know that 3 years was key to max benefit and flexibility of the nol's. It is now 3 years, right, so what happens, the wmih bod starts to take action, ie, get in bed with players that know how the lbo game is played and let them go to work making money for their companies and and us as shareholders. Yes, they will look out for themselves but the structure of the deal ties them to retail shareholders, period, they win, we win, they loose we loose.
Let's look at the crystal ball. Will the objective be to just runoff the nol's with a profitable company merged to us, if so, fine by me because if they have that kind of profit the share price automatically has to go up strictly based on profit margin and p/e ratio.
If the game plan is to build a solid long term entity all the better because then as the company grows the sky is the limit on share price if and it's a big if, they can grow a profitable enterprise, either way we win.
You naysayers can say all you want that this is still a scam situation, that's fine with me but I think you are wrong. So much so I have placed shares in my kids accounts, my ira and have told some close friends that if they want a ground floor opportunity give wmih as shot with your mad money, and I rarely do that.
When wmih announces their move to the naz I will be doubling my stake. This is a long hold for me, years, but the potential is large. How many companies start out with how many billions in earnings protected from any tax liability, simple answer, none to this degree.
Have a wonderful day and I do have to say, I find it very entertaining regarding those who spend hours on this board posting for peanuts to try to manipulate a pinkie stock like this. You should do one of two things, learn how to play the real pump and dump otcbb's or learn how to trade options on commodities, much more lucrative and much less time consuming, lol.
Htc caved, I wonder if settlement regarding the other 90% of their products is coming shortly or will they be included. This could be a very positive mover for higher share price. I know one "neverending" thought, when you buy shares at under 10 cents and the stock pumps to 2 bucks, dont walk share price all the way down and for years there after keep kicking yourself and not be able to move on. Lol, everyone have a great new and prosperous year.
wow, have not been here for awhile. i get the email pr's and once in a while stop by. not many old timers around. just skimming the messages, i see wsgi is pulling their assets out of this pig and placing them in new shells, bad sign.
I see some are saying the old players are getting back in the game with the new shell. is that true.
one point almost for certain, huff and puff is not involved, anyone who thinks otherwise is being ridiculous.
I'm in it for the money, should i throw a couple k into this looking for a pump down the road. How would they try to pump this again or are they going to let it die without one last pump and dump. Any thoughts from the old timers.
This dac thing, what is the real angle here.
By the way, is huff out of jail yet.
all in my opinion and mine alone
I'm in grand cayman and intend on visiting the other to islands as well. Anyone have Eugene's address. I would like to visit him and ask him a view questions.
If anyone has it, I will communicate back to this board what took place including pictures.
Thanks,