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And to 250k followers on twitter....Fan-dabby-dozy
When has anyone inside the management even confirmed topline data will be released anytime soon?
Maybe I've missed something in which case I apologise but I do not believe anyone from NWBO has even hinted as to anything being released on P3 anytime in the near future.
They have hinted at combo trials being announced but diddly squat on P3
For my American friends see translation below -
diddly-squat
a cuter way of saying f* sweet all nothing
Learningcurve2020.....it's never healthy to have a CEO who is the largest shareholder also holding the post of Chairman and CFO....it's not good governance. It does not mean of course anything fraudulant has gone on but the fact she put herself in that position means that it is likely the Non Executive Directors are less comfortable in challenging and providing objective scrutiny at board level. She completely controls the board members. This in turn can lead to bad decisions being made.
You can read my post two ways....I'm not blaming management for hyping P3 - Your explanation is how I meant it...in this case management have not been guilty of hyping something unlike with Direct, UK fast track, German insurance etc which they did before everything going silent.
The AGM is a good place to start but how about 3 monthly public online webcast Q/A sessions. I cannot understand how they are not picking up on the vibes as to why confidence is so low...
I'm perplexed as to his silence although I'm guessing he has Linda on speed trial and has probably discharged both barrels months ago.
The damage inflicted on this stock has been nothing short of catastrophic and I read all these messages about P3 topline data being released shortly by fellow posters and I would laugh if it was not so painful. Management on this occasion have maintained a strict radio silence and have not dropped even the smallest of hints of anything re P3 anytime soon. I don't blame management for hyping up expectations on P3.
There is no rabbit out of the hat and no strategy to see the share price recover anytime soon. It will take as long as it takes but the releasing of game changing news is obviously not in the hands of management and the damage caused by the silence around the screening halt plus the failure to expand on German or British news in addition to the investigation going on forever have seriously damaged this stock to the point where it's in intensive care and 100% reliant on outside control.
If I had to make a call about management then I would say they are confused between making commercial decisions vital for shareholder confidence and trust verses taking and accepting legal advice in protecting their own reputations and maybe thinking they can take on anyone writing BS articles. Legal advice at the expense of shareholder confidence only works if the silence is short lived. To be honest with the amount of time this investigation and any meaningful clinical updates have gone on it makes everything they have ever said look like BS and they are learning too slowly that the markets don't appreciate the lack of clarity. There is a reason why large institutions are not buying into this despite any evidence that is available about the science and that is not exactly a heavy read. Shareholders are going to end up getting utterly shafted if things carry on much the same.
I would really encourage shareholders to put pressure on management to rethink their strategy and deliver a clear timetable of expected news and events backed up with regular shareholder communications with questions and answers sessions via an online medium. GL everyone!
Seriously don't kid yourself......the shorts have options and time on their side. I would very much enjoy seeing them get squeezed out but the reality is completely different based on the likely timelines of receiving news that income streams will be hitting the P/L.
Thanks please see my post 84190....I would welcome your thoughts and opinions.
Thank you for the detailed response. I would like you to be bang on but my fear is that large institutional shareholders have been scared away by the obvious stock play going on with NWBO irrespective of the science which gives those shorting the stock a free pass in keeping the stock down. They currently rule the day.
The timing of large institutional investors jumping on board is the critical piece of DD that is key to the future of NWBO and I believe it will take more than an announcement of the trial ending and a review or announcement of top line data and or one or two more combo trials. I think the big news required is the timing of likely income from sales of DC VAX technology which more or less means the company no longer needs continued external financial support for its existence. At this point I think we will see a major correction in the market capitalisation and an end to the 900lb gorilla holding us underwater.
I would be interested in your understanding of when and what will deliver a knock out blow to the shorts?
MD I'm interested to know why you think a P3 update is coming in a few days? Have you spoken with Management or indeed is it stated somewhere that we will receive a P3 update sooner rather than later that I have missed?
Let's assume you are correct for a moment with either this news or indeed any further news about another combo trial.
You do appreciate if it's anything other than approval itself we will see continued downward pressure on the stock and there has been a clear track record of good news resulting in the stock going down.
It's great news but someone needs to beat off the 900lb gorilla on the back of this stock. Cofer Black where are you?
Will we be red or green today?
Some profit taking clearly pouring water on the fire....cannot blame anyone for doing that against the backdrop weak investor confidence. Hopefully the big boys will step in on the bottom and support
This grapefruit juice is pretty powerful stuff it seems.....AF was completely wrong and this is a strong validation that the science is recognised by BP
I had a similar response from Coutts
I would advise caution....we have no news and we have been here before....it has registered as an eyebrow raise level 5 for me.....using the famous eyebrow scale of 1-10
I'm chilled....just fed up with the over promising and under delivering
I'm pleased for you to have such confidence when the situation on the ground is somewhat different. I sincerely hope you are right but the timing of news on P3 is something I'm not convinced will either be soon enough or if sooner not substantial enough to alter the current trajectory of the stock.
The obstacles and hurdles facing management at the moment are another reality away from creating a short squeeze.
Cash flow issues, internal investigation, external investigation, 2 ongoing court cases in the US, stock manipulation, AF's et al, Nasdaq compliance issues, screening halt on a P3 trial, UK and Germany silence, P2 direct ?, combo trials with big pharma? Latest cash raise? = 90% stock collapse = investor confidence shot to pieces...
I'm countering the above with all the good news since the screening halt....help me out here folks!
You seem to be misunderstanding the strategy of those that are shorting the stock. It's not about covering but about driving the company into the ground. It's been that way for many months and will continue much as is until Mgt either get this 900lb gorilla off their back or a clinical milestone is achieved to drive upward demand on the stock leading to a squeeze.
Shorts might be desperate or nervous but at this point they are succeeding in their strategy.
Les never went into specifics re a rolling submission with me but I feel I have given an accurate account of our conversation in terms of the timeline for approval.
No I'm not lol......I was just saying only today to someone "I have never ever experienced a pleasant surprise from NWBO only nasty shocks or no news at all having been invested pre the reverse split years ago" At some point between now and Donald Trump running for a second term I expect a pleasant surprise will come along.
It is turning cold now in the U.K. and I often use the term when describing chilling news from the special offer menu of NWBO - "complimentary fleece with every raise"
Well that would make us all happy....I did specifically ask about approval as opposed to top line data so having this information out sooner than I was thinking will be most welcome.
my question to Les in October was -
"At what point are we likely to see approval of L?"
His response was -
"The trial needs to complete as we are still blinded and then you need a period of three to six months to review the data probably six months and a further couple of months to work with the FDA so it really is looking like the second half of 2017 and we have never told anyone else anything different or promoted a shorter timescale"
of course publishing top line data might come much sooner and if it did I would be delighted but I figured putting pressure on the FDA by publishing top line data while negotiating approval was not the norm...but I'm happy to be wrong.
I agree with almost everything you have written. LG told me L would be anything between 3-6 months and more likely 6 months from the trial completing and the data being unblinded....so Q3 2017 to be realistic.
A combo trial is frankly the only thing likely to be announced in the short term which to a large degree validates the science from an industry perspective. I think NWBO have a deal more or less in place but as with all things something is not quite right....I will lay a bet it's ultimately cash related.
The silence however is ridiculous and has been very damaging to shareholders. The stock is controlled by a few players and the market knows it and as a result Investor confidence is shot to pieces and then they cut deals to raise cash with what appeared to me to be the very terms which got us into this position in the first place. It has been a downward spiral for 18 months..It's interesting the latest raise has hit a few issues. Maybe it is the only avenue for small cap pharma but the length of time of this investigation and of LP's silence has only added to a lack of confidence from genuine large investors. As you say there will be a perfectly valid explanation from management but that does not necessarily mean with the benefit of hindsight it was a good call. I once believed they would gather enough evidence to bring to justice anyone guilty of market manipulation. I no longer believe that and feel at the end of this investigation and damaging silence we will be left wondering what was the point....I would really like a quarterly investor update with live questions answered by LP's so everyone can hear what's going on rather than a few of us proactively calling LG....and I don't buy any argument it would do more harm than has already been done.
The latter
I hope you are right but I believe we won't get much about P3 other than trial is completed. Is it going to mean anything at this stage....I doubt it but hopefully I'm wrong but I'm not holding my breath. I think it more likely we get some news about a combo trial or trials. I genuinely think game changing news on P3 will come some time in Q2 or Q3 of 2017.
Happy and delighted to be wrong on this but I'm trying to build in time for NWBO to understand results and open up discussions with regulators etc.
I agree....we all want a little jam sooner rather than later
I really think you should lower your expectations....I don't believe we will see any P3 results this month
Don't take it personally.....they play by shorting many bio start ups....mostly they win and when they get a problem case such as a winner they put in as much effort as possible to shake out retail longs and take part in financings that allow them a get out of jail position. For them it's not personal just the game they play. It does offer a bargain right now to those that believe in DC VAX. It's priced to fail already.....
if people are shorting a stock they do so because they do not believe in the science....they think it will fail and so they should have no financial interest in telling the world that it will fail. It would make them richer if it was pumped up by those that have an interest to see it approved only for it to then fail....opportunity to short and short again because ultimately If the science sucks it will fail......which is ironic as they have more to gain if the stock goes up in the short term. Likewise longs who believe have an opportunity to buy cheaply if they believe the science works...I don't buy any argument where investors do it to help other investors.
Longs should buy this stock to see it through to the end and not to trade in or out as others are able to control the stock in this period of waiting for trials to finish and be approved or rejected. Day trading this stock is very volatile and defies logic.
In the case of NWBO we have some saying they have shorted the stock or don't believe in the science or just predict continued doom and gloom that spend every day posting on here telling us that it's all a big scam or LP is a criminal. It's kind of odd that they do this from a position of shorting however as what they are doing is helping drive the stock price down artificially...with the possibility of achieving bankruptcy which is the only way they can be certain 100% to win if they actually believe the science has some substance. If the short position ( naked included ) was large enough it may be the only way out. So the more these guys scream this is all a big scam and spend their time telling everyone it's a scam (like AF) the more convinced I am that the science is good. It only works if genuine investors stop buying....so in this case it has worked up to a point....will it go bankrupt before a clinical conclusion one way or the other? I am interested in people's opinion on this...
The risk here for longs is bankruptcy....and the ability to raise cash to continue operations as various clinical milestones are reached, which in the end have to come to an end. If you believe in the science you have done so based on evidence or updates previously given then it's safe to assume others will also and some of those invest on favourable terms to themselves and unfavourable to other shareholders but the all important strategy has to be keep the raises small and then the pain is less for everyone else....I believe Mgt have the ability to raise cash as painful as it is because the science works....time will govern how sweet the upside will be for longs. Do we really believe that AF, PhaseV, the lawsuits and all the various attacks have been done in the name of protecting long shareholders or helping to deliver the only way out for those that made a bad bet...
But our film would be entitled "The Small Long"
Is the phase five website down again?
Turtle....NWBO has no problem raising cash....it has continuously raised cash in small chunks so as to not dilute long term shareholders like you....I know the irony eh? I have passed on your suggestion of a reverse split to management and they have taken note of your preference and if there was any way they could single you out for a reverse split they would but sadly they cannot as they are doing their best to help shareholders benefit from any upside....I responded on your behalf by saying "sad"
Always interesting and informative posts but written in the style of Yoda...
Zero chance of that....this stock is owned 100% until blockbuster news.
All your points are things we find ourselves questioning but the reality is even with a CFO and even with quarterly updates you would be quite mistaken if you believe the manipulation would stop. You are assuming nothing illegal is happening and she firmly believes that these updates provide an opportunity to spread further rubbish about NWBO either science or management based.
I think you raise some interesting points. How would you play out strategy if you run a business that was being shackled by stock manipulation fronted by constant attacks on every shred of news ever communicated?
You cannot really answer this question without being aware of all the facts that the management are aware of but I say this....most CEO's have a bit of skin in the game but are motivated by bonus targets and ultimately improving their own circumstances. No doubt other less invested CEO's would have chosen a different path.
Linda has huge skin in the game and so her motivation is quite different from your average CEO of a listed company. Her wealth generation comes from seeing NWBO go from a concept to an approved reality. The bonus culture is not her goal. So I find it hard to accept she runs the company in a manner deliberately designed to destroy the very thing she has so much invested in.
Your comments are completely counter to what I believe are in the best long term interests.
I want news...we all do but I blame market manipulators for the continued silence and the devastating affect on the stock price based on PhaseV and plenty of other baseless attacks. Linda is dealing with this in the best way she sees fit and while most of us are struggling to get our head around this and may rightfully question the silence it is and always has been as a consequence of market manipulation designed to guarantee an outcome irrespective of the science.
Enough to drive us around the bend....
Thanks for posting this....an independent clinical perspective is helpful
I hope you are right but I would not bet on it...
If P3 is a failure then it's likely the SP will come under extreme pressure not least from those naked shorting as the motivation is to drive investors away and force bankruptcy. Those short will have made a good call.
I view the chances of bankruptcy currently at about 30-40% with survival obviously at 60-70% based on partnerships with BP.
The odds improve considerably if we have approval for P3.
The odds further improve if those commiting fraud and manipulation are successfully prosecuted.
Learningcurve2020.....I presume you think prejudging the investigation and calling out Linda for running a board of ill reputation is something we should take seriously and sell our shares? I'm interested to pass your comments directly to management so would appreciate if you could provide some genuine contact details which I can forward on with your thoughts?
Being a champion for corporate governance I presume you would be comfortable doing this...something a reputable poster would understand and appreciate.....thanks in advance.