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I agree with some of what you say in that plenty haven’t factored Advent into their investment understanding. There is both positive and negative in having Advent as our CDMO.
The positive is that it potentially creates real competition and a commercial price that should keep any third party player such as CRL holy to a fair price because NWBO have manufacturing options. In theory the potential is that the lower manufacturing cost leaves the majority of income in the hands of NWBO shareholders.
The negative risk is two fold….
A start up has to go through lots of hoops to get accredited and it takes longer than anyone estimates and requires skill sets and experience that maybe is not always available. I do believe they will achieve a positive outcome in the not too distant future so I consider this a low risk but most want jam today after years of frustration. Understandable but it’s the chosen pathway.
Any inter transfer pricing could go the opposite way in terms of what I stated above on the positive side, meaning that the CRL manufacturing pricing is used to determine the transfer price between Advent and Northwest….this is likely a very profitable contract given the valuation placed on cognate by CRL during its acquisition.
We will never know the details of any commercial pricing between the company and CDMO’s as it’s confidential but I’m sure that Advent led by Mike Scott and his expanding team are more than capable of running a very profitable CDMO once they have a manufacturing license….just as I’m sure NWBO shareholders will own a very valuable vaccine once it’s approved.
That’s an interesting fact lol …..
Lots of reasons to explain this….but ultimately it comes down to professional investors seeing the colour of the eyes and shaking the hands of Mgt and building relationships and confidence.
The fish won’t jump themselves into the boat…..
Seriously don’t preach…I’ve been here since 2011 and own a lot of shares. Science is amazing but we have a 900lbs gorilla suffocating us…a partnership deal would deliver a bomb but I don’t think it’s on the immediate horizon. We need cash, have dropped all the best news we could….we will at some point get approved and deliver a return. Our expectations should be adjusted to some time Q3 next year….until then stop talking 1.2B naked shares or LP has delivered a knockout punch….reality in the short term is the opposite but i’m convinced we will all eventually make a very healthy profit.
I agree with you ex…..it’s good news but won’t alter the SP
Spot on….
100% agree….
Yes I also agree about the situation back then but that is not the situation now in my opinion…..way way less shares sold not purchased.
Pure speculation…..
It’s not completely derisked. The odds of approval have increased for sure….you are an investor as are thousands of others…..the SP is important for lots of reasons, not least to speed up trials, marketing and commercialisation as well as to increase confidence in the enterprise as a whole. I read plenty of posters attempting to silence or call out anyone who complains about the SP as desperate or not understanding the “amazing forward thinking strategies” of Mgt…..it may all be true but until the SP starts to correct we can be comforted by amazing science however the markets do not as yet share that this is a done deal….it’s healthy to be concerned about the SP because a strong share price speeds everything up….no need to continually call out individuals for raising concerns…whatever the reasons for them doing so may be. GL
The science is brilliant. The share price is awful…attention needs to turn to the SP to get this show on the road…it’s as simple as that.
Good question
Thanks, I didn’t know that….where did you find that out?
https://www.nejm.org/toc/nejm/387/20
Nothing in this edition…..
I agree….not anywhere near 1.2B…..it’s laughable it’s that daft
Maybe…..but from my perspective I’ve been in this for years and tears and have seen a reverse split, delisting from Nasdaq, multiple large dilutions, screening halts, good news turning to poor SP performance and over this time I’ve taken part in almost every financing….to the point that I’m loaded up at an average of under 30 cents. The next weeks ahead are going to kick off a change in the landscape of treating GBM around the world. If you are not in now then it’s not a big deal….the ride upwards will give plenty of opportunity for those more risk averse to gain profit as the SP increases over the coming months. Good luck…
X Master
Cassie may well be correct about nothing this working week. The company still hasn’t officially come out of the “ quiet period “
Journal and further announcements will come when they are ready but it’s not a given that will be before Sunday the 20th.
Exciting times coming up but as with all things Northwest it takes longer than we think and as per usual we talk up the possibility of news based on conversations that get misinterpreted on situations that are subject to change. Good luck!
Pure luxury…..when I was a lad I’d dream of living in a cardboard box by side of road….now I’m a 12+ year investor in nwbo I’m pleased to inform you that my dream is still the same lol
It has the full interview of around 5 minutes where he discusses the NY conference results of DCVax - it’s worth a listen
$nwbo today live on national bbc radio 5 live - talking about DCVax-L pic.twitter.com/Ut8C7oONPk
— JohnWarner (@JohnWarner1970) May 26, 2022
Thanks I’m all booked in for tomorrow.
I will be at ASCO in person
Good luck everyone
Novocure - Mgt selling like crazy….SP $70.00 - incredible that the market is so asleep….look below
All the buys are share options at zero cost and all the selling is Mgt - huge red flag
https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/nvcr/insider-activity
I think you are spot on Viking….the world is a smaller place to do business in
It’s obviously your experience as that is what you believe but I’m based in UK and have been a President of a British listed business reporting to a CEO who was also British, with manufacturing plants around the world. I’m currently a CEO of a private UK business and I deal with plenty of Managing Directors or Chief Executive Officers in both the UK and mainland Europe and also around Asia. As much as America has successfully exported everything from burgers to software it has also successfully exported various aspects of commercial structure and governance. Under UK company law the registered directors of the company have to be listed and recorded at companies house. This information is publicly available and currently the only registered officer of the company is Linda Powers. I suspect in time Mike will be added to that list as he is a smart guy and doing a good job.
Spot on Sir……we are close!
Pot.kettle.black.com. It’s becoming more than obvious to any tone deaf bystander that you are 100% wrong.
Blame yourself, blame AF but nobody else
The RA’s are singing from the same song sheet as NWBO - time to unplug your ears and open your eyes….the mood music is playing Immuno cancer vaccines.
The Telegraph Newspaper today in the U.K.
Patients to receive new cancer drugs faster under Brexit rules shake-up
Seven medicines already approved as changes cut as much as a month off approval times
By
Hannah Boland
23 January 2022 • 6:00pm
Patients will receive new cancer drugs more quickly following post-Brexit changes to the regulatory oversight of pharmaceuticals.
The change of policy has already slashed approval times by as much as a month. The MHRA, Britain's regulator, has approved seven cancer treatments under the Project Orbis scheme, which it entered into last year after licensing decisions were no longer made by the European Medicines Agency.
Four of the newly approved treatments are for lung cancer and breast cancer. Another three are extensions of existing treatments.
Project Orbis links the UK to the US, Canada, Australia, Switzerland, Singapore and Brazil, harmonising the regulatory process so trial data can be submitted to all the regulators at the same time, where it can be reviewed and treatments approved.
Government officials have said the scheme is a Brexit benefit which will "speed up the time it takes to get these new medicines to patients".
European medical agency the EMA says it takes around a year for it to evaluate a medicine, after which it makes a recommendation to the European Commission, which can take another two months to approve.
The first drug the MHRA approved under Project Orbis last May - AstraZeneca's lung cancer treatment Tagrisso - took the EMA almost a month longer to approve.
AstraZeneca's executive vice president of oncology Dave Fredrickson praised Project Orbis as a "welcome initiative that has already shown it can help accelerate the speed of getting innovative cancer medicines to patients in the UK and across the globe".
He added: "It is vital for industry, regulators and health bodies to continue working closely together to make sure many more medicines can get to patients in the shortest possible time.”
The UK is among the countries facing a cancer treatment backlog as NHS resources have been diverted to tackling Covid, with experts saying it could take a decade to clear.
However, Project Orbis has attracted criticism from cancer specialists who warn that speeding up approvals risks cutting corners.
Richard Sullivan, a director for the Institute for Cancer Policy, said: "The concern is we're going to start aping some of what we see as the poor practices of the FDA in terms of accelerated approval.
"If this is about just lowering the bar even more and more, then this is a disaster, because what this is going to do is actually harm British cancer patients, not improve their outcomes."
Related Topics
Brexit, Pharmaceutical industry, Cancer
Thanks for the clarification.
Yep I’ll leave it there…..was hoping for a bit more meat on the bone such as revenue estimates specifically for NWBO. This helps at least create a value which can be applied to producing phase 1A vaccines (45 per month) but it didn’t mention revenue streams.
But it says NWBio’s entity…..I’m just saying it’s misleading and could be interpreted as being owned by NWBio…..using the word entity suggests it’s a legally recognised organisation and prefixing it with “ NWBio’s” and then using the word “entity”is not a correct statement….unless in American English it means something different.
Ok so which of the two possibilities is how you read the statement? It’s not a trick question. British English and American English can be interpreted differently. I read it as meaning the later as by calling it NWBio’s entity it means we own it. Which of course we don’t…but not sure if I’m reading it wrong so wanted to ask yours and others opinion.
I specifically meant the term “ Advent Bioservices, NWBio’s UK entity contract manufacturer” what do you suppose that means….?
How do posters interpret the last sentence referencing Advent as being NWBio’s UK entity contract manufacturer?
“ This MHRA license follows the license approval by the UK’s Human Tissue Authority (HTA) in October. That license covers the collection, processing and storage of human tissue and cells for medical purposes, including cell therapies such as DCVax-L. The preparatory work and applications for the MHRA and HTA licenses have been carried out by Advent Bioservices, NWBio’s UK entity contract manufacturer, operator, and license holder.”
This all needs to be explained by Mgt. The number of 40-50 patients per month and the cost of $200k per patient has been mentioned by Mgt, I agree with your numbers. How that ramps up with scale over the next few months as they start is unknown but it’s not unreasonable to take a few months to achieve manufacturing efficiency. How the fee of $200k is split between NWBO & Advent remains confidential but we will learn a great deal by having declared revenue streams flowing into NWBO in public filings and a detailed set of accounts filed in public for Advent but that’s months in arrears or a year away from the period ended. It’s excellent news that the facility at Sawston enables commercial scale of DCVax-L for those wishing to self pay. Advent will continue to expand and develop both staff and equipment, including potentially flashworks scale up. NHS / Germany approval of DCVax-L will require further cash but will dynamically change the financial performance of NWBO when approval is granted. The phase we are in now is most welcome but I’m not going to assume anything like $120m of revenue will be flowing into NWBO’s bank account. It does however drive a nail into the coffin of anyone claiming NWBO will run out of cash…..they will still need more cash but they ain’t going bust and that is most welcome news. I hope Mgt take this golden opportunity to clarify all these points so that transparency is front centre for all to see. Exciting times…..
Todays news should deliver a degree of revenue and prove a personalised vaccine like DCVax-L can be made at scale.
TLD and a journal should deliver the following -
That it is safe with little or no side effects, it breaks new ground in terms of efficacy, it’s personalised and scaleable and that the RA’s are likely to approve this drug……
Advent ends on the 24th of December so let’s hope Advent delivers news before then