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NWBO didn't identify they were using an SAP with an external comparator until the 3/21 SEC filing. That was 5 months after announcing unblinding of data.
But it is probably not too far off - even if extended.
I also believe that, while their main objective, they want to keep all information from the shorts and catch them with their pants down
I think it is clear that management need an ASM, if for nothing else than to pass the AS which will definitely be needed in the short term. The only question then, is why are they not setting the date for the ASM and the AS, rather than the temporary band-aid using the pref series C?
I think (as do many) that at the moment they fear a rejection by the retail investors who are not happy with the share price and the lack of info which LP could provide if she chose without violating the embargo as most small bios do.
I believe this is a very good indicator for the longs. The management could not hope to hold off the overdue ASM for a long term. In which case, there is no benefit to pushing off the ASM as sooner or later they will have to face the music and set (or be forced to set) the ASM in any case. They gain nothing by irritating the investors in the meantime. This tells me that the management strongly believe that they will have the goods in the near term, and will be able to call the ASM with good news and not fear the vote on the AS.
I also believe that, while their main objective, they want to keep all information from the shorts and catch them with their pants down. So they play this game of delaying the ASM and no information, to anyone, irritating as this may be to the long investors. Then it all comes like a torrent of news when their ducks are all in a row - which will be soon - or they would not be delaying the ASM needlessly.
For what it worth, I spoke with Les some days ago about the C, but one of the things I got by reading between the lines, is that they are now involved with the pesky business of the editing for the reviewers. So if I got that right, the article has already been submitted and now in the editing process.
While I don't really know, my gut tells me you are probably right on all counts, though I am less certain about 1).
1) 10Q released tonight after close, tomorrow morning before open, or tomorrow during market?
2) Will 10Q be at least a little news worthy or a nothing-burger?
3) Will 10Q be timely?
4) Will 10Q be timed together with the ASM announcement?
5) Will 10Q have any significant effect on SP?
interesting that the company believes there is something happening that will trigger a short squeeze in the next 2.5 months.
Is it clear whether the DCs in this trial are DCs with or without the "secret sauce" from NWBO?
Even if we knew the actual author of the tweet, and it wasn't so vague, we would still have no reason to accept this tweet as gospel. I would ignore it until more explicit info is available from a trusted source.
I would venture to guess more like $16 without any warrants. Like you say, we will see who is closer. This assumes only retail buyers at this time. What happens down the road with large investors is another issue that remains to be seen.
The "highly successful" P3 was very likely
Both are certainly possible. They are not mutually exclusive.
That should have been 10Q - not 10K in my previous post.
I am hoping that the upcoming 10K coming on or about Aug 9. next week, will be more informative on some of the outstanding issues but not all which may have to wait until the ASK or perhaps the JA. It is cllear that the JA has taken them longer than expected and they are still in the back and forth of the editing with their preferred Journal, but I suspect they will not wait forever and will move on to choice number 2 if the editing issues are not resolved at this Journal reasonably soon IMO. So let's see what the 10K will tell us, and then what the ASM will tell us and hope all these issues finally get resolved. Trust does not last forever, so let's hope they resolve all the issues before they lose more of that valuable commodity called trust.
Senti, I used to fill up at Sunoco sometimes as well.
much would depend on what could legitimately be revealed under those terms, but I believe that if the current situation could be properly explained, it could remain positive after the meeting.
I enjoy your thought process, but I frankly doubt this will come to pass at this time. I would really love for you to be right, but I doubt highly that ANYONE will today pay $1.5 to $2 for something they can pick up at .70 from the open market. I would love for this to happen, but I do not see it an todays share price. Of course if the common SP goes up then it is another situation, but then it is not the prefs driving the market.
I would also add that I am not sure that LP is willing to give that large a position to some BP with whom she does not have a very concrete agreement with, ie., partnership of sorts. If that were the case she could just announce the partnership and watch the huge spurt in SP that would cause. So why go via this route instead?
I agree with your concern about the stock being manipulated and the lack of SEC action when it is obvious to the most casual observer . . . but my hope/expectation is once the journal article is published and DCVAX-L is approved and the great bulk of the general public understands the significance of this industry disruptive treatment it will not be so easy for the Big Money Thugs to keep on manipulating NWBO with all the eyes watching.
Right on!
The differences wrt the number of voting rights fort preferred shares between the series A, B and now the C are purely cosmetic and make no real difference. that is to say you got the number of votes for the number of shares you could convert to in common shares. So if you wanted 100 votes you could buy 10 A/B preferred shares (priced at 10X the common) by paying 100X the common share price. Now equivalently, you can buy 4 C preferred shares (priced at 25X the common) AGAIN by paying 100X the common share price. NO DIFFERENCE. At all times you were paying 1X common share price for 1X vote. In the A/B series you had to do this in groups of 10 votes while with the C series its done in groups of 25 votes.
And why is my opinion not allowed to differ from yours?
Unless you have insider info - you are just putting forth your belief, not entitled to anything more than my belief.
Glad to help.
I highly doubt hat is the case. I believe that they are now working with a single top tier Journal and possibly bogged down in the back and forth of the peer review and requirements of that Journal and trying to satisfy those demands, and only subject to this one embargo requirement at this time.
Hard to figure. But I will take a shot at it.
They seem to need to sell some equity over the next short while before the ASM an the next AS - so the prefs are the vehicle for that. Just enough to keep the light on and pay for the BLA etc to get to the next milestone.
From the investors point of view, there seems to be no real benefit for the retail investor to buying over the market. There may be a very minor benefit in that you may get the market price of a day or two ago over todays market - so perhaps a tiny discount, but not much. There are no warrants, the usual sweetener.
However for a large investor or a biopharma there may be an significant benefit in that when buying in larger volumes you tend to force the market price higher as you actively buy on the open market - so must do so very delicately. Whereas if you are buying direct from NWBO then you can get you volume without affecting the market price at all. This may be good for the large investors - but not good for the retail investor as this removes any upward pressure on market price and just leaves the otherwise stagnant buying pressure. I have no idea if they will get interest at this time from large biopharma - likely too early.
the retail investor has nothing to gain from buying the prefs. So I think for the next while the MMs will remain in control and the very very slow slide may continue for a while yet until news is announced or at least more obviously imminent.
Anyway, what I expect is that Less will sell a huge chunk of the C Prefs to a private equity partner for around 1.5 - 2$ a share, not to a BP.
Well at least now we know why the share price of the last few days firmly stabilized at around $0.65.
My guess they want these Cs in the hands of those who will vote FOR the AS in the upcoming ASM yet to be announced. They are nervous about the possibility of losing that vote. So they need (want) these additional votes in favor of AS at the ASM.
Gary, you missed the point of my post. I was not making a statement whether Merck would or would not make an offer and at what level the offer would be. I was making a statement about the state of mind of those shareholders posting that they would gladly accept $2 for their shares. I was trying to show that they too would probably refuse such an offer (from a biopharma).
If say Merck were to offer $2 for all shares tomorrow, I suspect that you (and I) would turn that down that offer rather quickly, since that would make even the current doubters realize that there is real value here far greater than $2, or Merck would not make such an offer. Just they are in a much better position to realize how undervalued the company is right now.
I suspect that for SOC most of those who do not continue living are those who actually have progression and not merely psPD
Doesn't the phrase "allow regulators a “quiet period” as they carry out their review," imply that their is A REVIEW GOING ON, otherwise no quiet period is asked for. Are you saying this implies there is a review going on? But they have announced tha t as of the last PR they had not yet submitted to the RAs as of yet, SOWHY THE QUIET PERIOD?
I also believe that management is concerned that within their strong base of longs, there are enough doubts caused by their silence (that is well beyond the embargoed results of the PIII), that they are very reluctant to face an ASM until that gets resolved. They need to get an AS resolution but are concerned they may lose that vote. They are putting off the ASM until they can resolve these issues. Clearly this logic only works short term as they can not put off the ASM indefinitely. So they must KNOW that this will be resolved in the near term by the required facts all falling into place - they just need to put off the ASM short term until this happens. But putting off the ASM and then later being forced to call it at some later time without resolving these issues is pointless and counter productive. They may as well face the music now and hope they survive the ASM.
I have a pet speculation on the nature of the NWBO longs. There is an entire spectrum of these longs. A few may be infiltrators, a wolf in sheep's clothing, a few of whom, possibly post here on iHub. But there are not many of those. Then there are the "temporary" longs most of whom are traders with a relatively short term long position. We have some of those posting on iHub as well. You can easily discern these posters by how their tune changes from time to time. Then you have the longs who have recently bought into NWBO on the rise prior to May 10, with intentions to be long but were easily scared out of their positions after 5/10 along with some longer term longs. This brings us to the long term longs, those in it through thick and thin, those who have been it for many years and would not survive the mental shock if they finally sold out and then two weeks later the big news hit - so they hold, even if management has given them reason to entertain doubt by their silence. This is the group that management can not afford to lose. Of course there may be some longs who have no doubts whatsoever, but I suspect, they are few and far between (outside of the insiders who know much more than we do).
I think that by now we have shaken out all the short term longs and any of the wavering longer term holders. Thus the trading has shriveled to a low daily trading volume sustained IMHO by short term traders, the MM's and those accumulating the shares being tossed by the last few longs who are finally getting out. Bt now, most of the "true" long term longs are not going to sell and will hold most of their holding until the full show plays out - thus the diminishing daily volume and the pretty stable price, dropping ever so slowly at this time, at a regularly diminishing rate. So we are basically in a holding pattern - that will end when management chooses to release substantial news. Essentially, shares are in the hands of strong holders, with their eyes on the prize, that will for the most part continue to hold their shares and see the game through to the final play of the current trial. I suspect that some of these are also kicking themselves for passing up the opportunity to sell at $2 and buy back double or triple their position shortly thereafter. But as we all know, no one has a perfect crystal ball, so they feared the risk of selling and not being nimble enough to buy back in time before the news hits and missing out on the main prize.
I also think that the longs mostly believe this is in the process of happening shortly and it will not disappear into some eventual black hole in the distant future never to be heard from again.
I like the logic.
See my post from June 24, 2022 1:50:19 PM - Post# 489805, where I predicted this happening. With so much in potential revenues, that non biopharma giants, will begin to buy in competition with large biopharma.
hankmanhub
Friday, June 24, 2022 1:50:19 PM
Re: KD888888 post# 489800
Post# 489805 of 496823
I am sure not many will agree with me, but I think with so many BILLIONS in future revenues, it is not out of the question for say a large bank, insurance co, or say Musk, Bezoz, Gates, Buffett etc. without any pharma know-how, could bid and buy NWBO, and them hire a Pharma like say Pfizer (or you name it) to run NWBO on their behalf. That would cut them in for a share of the BILLIONS in future revenues. No real reason to count them out.
Where do you get this from? How does this work? What if the "signal" gets taken out right away? Can this work in an active market, or only in a low volume market? How long does this signal stay up? Who is being signaled? If all know this messaging technique then why is it effective, as the "wrong" people can get the message as well. ? Is anyone else aware of this? and many more questions.....
I fully agree with you on this and would add one proviso which is "or until NWBO forces their hand with NEWS."
One question - with this point of view, why bother with charts at this time?
Yes, I agree Hoff. This is a very limited point on which who issued the "TLD" can make a difference by the self imposed terms of their silence. As I pointed out in an earlier post (reproduced below) I do not hink it will make much difference in terms of market impact, once the very basic information is out, it is out - and reproducing the same information with a little enhancement (unless it is large) will not change much of anything.
I wrote at post #495465 the following:
BB, I only partially agree with you.
Yes the targeted UK approvals are truly important to us at this time (and the EU and the FDA a bit later), but I would not so minimize the importance of the JA and the ASM. These are quite important in their own right and every brick in the foundation is important. I agree on the order of their importance however. While a good ASM can help, a bad ASM can truly hurt. So please do not write this off as unimportant. The JA remains a key element in the credibility of the company, the trial and the science and its ability to produce what they promise (both wrt the JA and the trial)..
Makes sense to me. Let's hope that rational thought leads to truth and facts unfolding as a consequence, (which has not always been the case in the long history of NWBO).