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Chart
using Fib arcs
AVXL
friday 8/6 AVXL
the key support step around 18.50 held ok. and a nice bounce back up into te 19 looks like it wants to try for the 20's next week.
resistance looks strong at 21/22/23 area to watch out for.
the 17.50 step held as a 'bottom' so far
AVXL chart
IF we see the rally continue to finish around 23/24 area the pullback critical area would be the shoulder at 20. to hold.
the key support held today
that pullback target area 18.50-18.25 held the morning drop ok.
and bounced back up. like its on track to reach the higher target . but in my view, that target zone is only 20-21-22 area and resistance near the 50ma and the 20ma , maybe around 20.50-21 area might stall and turn the rally downward . or at least needs watching for caution.
Its not a place for me to sell any shares, but watching the track patterns up and down, the downwave pattern might still have a longer time frame to bleed down. the peaks have been making lower highs.as downwaves do. 31/28/26/25/23/22/ .....
Thursday 8/5 chart view
resistance at the 50ma
17.50 Held ok
so far so good. big jump off the 17.50 quadruple bottom, now reaches the resistance zone (19-22) needs to be watched with caution here, the pattern going down from 28 has been one of 2 and 3 dollar bounces up followed by 5 and 6 dollar downwaves. the finished bottom will be reached at some point. Is it going to be 17.50? cant say. but the bounce now, 2 or 3 dollars is this 20 dollar area, watch closely now to see if it struggles around 20,rolls over and starts the next downwave to retest the 18/17 again, and might continue to the 16/15 targets...IF the rollover pattern is still going downwave. Its always encouraging to see nice bounces off a bottom target step,but we need now to watch for the next part of the pattern to come.
Holding support now at 18 becomes critical to watch for. rally follow thru needs to push beyond 20/21/22 and start testing 23 and 24 to become more bullish. and regain the momentum. There is a shoulder around 20 area that is currently resistance but would become support, if the rally reaches the 24 target zone and then pulls back to hold at 20. and thats how the bullish pattern develops. watch the support area now around 18 to show any strength or not.
a jump into resistance
todays price action
sliding sideways along the 18. retesting 17.50 (3x so far)
Bounces need to break through the 19 target step to begin showing strength. resistance every step above that , a small mountain must be climbed here. Failing anywhere from 18 to 20 becomes a bearish bias, in my view. This zone at 18/19 is a critical zone to watch now,as it can become the pressure point for the next bleeding downwave to seek lower bottoms below 17.50
AVXL sliding along 18
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I'm feeling the same way
bullish momentum has faded.
the bleeding down game seems still ongoing. I'm looking at that 50ma around 20 as a resistance wall to get hit by sellers. but yes, 19 looks like a capping area as well. What we have been watching is waves of 3 and 4 dollars. would 19 fall to 16 or 15 in the next one?
the finished picture
A few more lines
I could be wrong. but it shows the lower zone as a target area.
(16-15-14)
@Manonb
Thank you
for such kind words.
I try to share what I have to offer, which is just a bit of TA charting. I admire the fundamental and science analysis that some experts have here .and there are a few other decent TA people as well.
My charts can be hard for others to read since I use some odd tools that most people dont use. But I try to explain what it looks like.
These days, its been a matter of feeling the momentum pulse from the recent surging price action, subsiding now in the ongoing downwave, settling into that cycle of bottom fishing once again, for best bargains at the bottom. I dont sense we have hit bottom at 17.50/18.
and the big money doesnt seem too eager to jump on this 18 dollar step. just like they didnt jump on 20 either. Would we see more buying at 16? (16-15-14) I think we would see a better bounce.
But now, we are measuring the downwave from 31 and from 28, and I just dont think it will hold at 18. but I could be wrong.
Is AVXL waiting on the next round of news? We do know that AVXL has a reliable history of getting easily bled down the steps,and lower than people think it should go. We saw it fall from 28 to 10 last time. and now, from 31 and 28 to 18 so far.
Sometimes its hard to see too far out, but easy to see whats coming up next right in front of us.
The current picture looks to me like a curved rounding bottom trying to develop here at 17.50/18, but the bounce would need to reach at least back to 22 and 23/24 for me to start feeling a bullish turnaround. IF we get a weaker bounce that dies out around 20 we could see the next sell down from there start to target lower lows at 16-15-14. the 20 area is now a resistance step (20-23) to watch closely when the time comes. even 19 has a resistance look to it.
This week could continue the downwave ,as you see the current sideways slide in the 18-19 area, looks like an Elliott wave 4 developing, and this would suggest another downwave (wave 5) that might be looking at 16/15 area.
AVXL chart
See the fib targets at 24 and below that the resistance trap at 22 area 20-22 area. could reverse down from there. This is how the scallop pattern of bounces that roll over and turn downwave again happen.
Its possible that this 17.50 step could hold as a bottom, but any bounce back into the 20-22 area is a caution zone to watch out for.
not a dire warning, but to watch and see... If it bounces from 18 to 22, it has a chance to hold a shoulder support at 20. That would become a bullish picture if that happens. but just as the latest 2 or 3 days have shown how AVXL hit the 17.50 and bounced ...but then it fell right back to retest the 17.50. Thats a weak bounce.
and just like 20 failed to hold, this 18 looks weak to hold, in my view.
price action today
and right now retesting 18 as support to hold. its my current key target step ,needs to hold. a 1 dollar rally to 19 is the next track for bullish picture. a finish target around 24/25 is the upward track . or in the downward direction, we would see the current 18 step fail to hold. and maybe a sideways slide, that fails to reach 20, 19 falls to 16 and see what happens down around there.
but the next clue is right here now at 18 to watch. to see if it will hold support and bounce.
If one wants to speculate
about the price action... it helps to have a chart to look at and it helps if you understand what youre watching.
Otherwise its all just a bunch of bickering.
1 dollar move coming
AVXL chart
same picture
I keep drawing the same chart
now. Another look at the same thing.
a bullish bounce from 18 might need to target 23/24 area for a chance to hold. a bearish bounce might get stopped around the 50 ma at 20/20.50/21 and fall down again. the downward direction is really eyeballing 16 and has a zone to 14. so Its looking to me like a 6 dollar swing from 18 to 24 going upward or the 6 dollar swing down from 20 to 14? but in any case, I keep seeing target points aiming at 16.
I might be inclined to see the bargain buy zone as 16-14 and the resistance zone as 21-25. The peak at 31 looks excessive to me now, and the secondary peak at 28 is looking like the real top. The previous blast up to 28 fell to 11 and 10. would this pullback now hold higher at 14-16 area? or could we see it get bled down to 12-10 area again. Where is the big money strength to jump on a higher bottom sooner?
are we too eager to call 16 a best bargain? 16 represents the 'shoulder zone' in the big chart picture. does that shoulder really encompass a zone from 16 to 12? or to 11 and 10? hard to pinpoint yet.
but the bottom did not hold at 20 and now its flirting with 18 to hold or not.
bottom fishing 18-16-14
AVXL chart with Fibonacci lens
a geometric picture
Hi Dawgfan
Yes they recently made me a mod. Ive been a mod a few years ago. I can go look at those deleted posts if you think it was unfair. I had not seen them yet.
Ive noticed the forum looks pretty well behaved these days. not many posts deleted. it was way worse in the past.
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I went and looked. it appears that your post was pretty tame, talking with basparks. Usually when someone says something of a personal tone about someone else,a post which probably should be deleted...then it can warrant removing all the other posts connected with it. I wouldnt worry about that deletion . Mainly we have to try and avoid personal retorts about people and off topic stuff.
have a good weekend.
123Tom
Thats a nice pickup there.
a channel pattern to watch for
weekly picture
there is a target around 16.40 now ,the weekly 20ma.
and it reaches the shoulder zone at 16.
Might offer some support there.and a better bargain than 18.
Target zone 16.50-15.50-14.50 area
we could see a bounce at 17.50 but I like 16.50 better to end the weekly candle.
nice
a chance to buy better bargains.
18 is better than 20. 16 is better than 18. The shoulder zone has been 22 to 16 to watch. a 50% haircut from the 31 top is 15.50 area. 20 support failed. lower targets are in play. so far its testing 18.
At some point the big buying will jump on a target bottom. will it be now at 18, or 17.16,15. cant say.
AVXL at 18 target
a few days ago,I reset
my stink bids down to 16.50 area.
I'm tempted to buy a little here at 18, but just watching it at the moment.
There definitely could be
othr reasons more valid than my elliott wave math formula charts, and if there are good clues to find there it would be worth noting. but I just have this one trick up my sleeve and it gets me in the ballpark for targets to buy and sell.
That target zone at 23/24 and 25 isnt as simple as guessing. they are part of the picture of support /resistance and Fib math and elliott wave structure. like puzzle pieces that fit the picture. There is a strength and weakness value to be seen in watching how the price moves to these targets. if it struggles to reach 23 or if it surges right to 24, it shows the strength or weakness. and might be a clue whether it turns back down to retest 20 or keeps rising to target 25 or higher.
for a bullish move, I want to see it make a strong move to 24 and follow25 area. for a bearish bias, it might get stuck around 23 and start selling down strong like it did last time.
Another bounce from the 20 'bottom'
IF it will just continue climbing some more steps. the basic picture looks like this to me.
target 23 area and 25 to complete the pattern. then a bullish pullback would look to hold the 22 area as support. continuing higher 25 has a chance to become 30 again. IF it will only just do that. from a bottom at 20 holding.
AVXL bounces
critical zone to watch for is 23/24/25 . and turning downward again. and watch again 22 area to hold.
lots of times
the biotech volatile moves will make a 50% haircut from the top (31) so its possible we could see 15 or 14 before its over. the miners do that as well. 50% haircuts very common.
I agree bourbon
Before we see 13
can we just look at the next steps down 20/19/18/17/and see if it hits 16. see if it steps down like that. I dont think we'll see 13.
but the basic target zone in the bigger chart is 22 to 16. so we're in that zone. I think it will bleed down the steps like its been doing. at some point buyers will jump on the bargain price.
the shoulder zone for the big chart is that 16 area.
shoulder zone at 16
that sounds very possible.
and today made it a
triple bottom at 20.50 area
good bounce and now forming a triangle at 21.
would the next 3 dollar move be to 24 or to 18. who knows.
A rally bounce
will it become meaningful?
The previous double bottom low at 20.30 rallied to 23 and now comes back down to make a double bottom, and this bounce today would need to continue next week,to target the 22 area. it needs to break thru the resistance area 21.50. and if it reaches 22 or better, has a chance to pullback, and hold support at 21.25 area. this would be the look of a developing bullish rally pattern. just some technical target points on the chart to watch for
The downward direction would be looking for a cap at the resistance 21.50 area and turn down. why not another 3 dollars to target 18.
I agree with that.
lets hope for some strength in this new cycle.
would that mean its time for
another pullback?
we got the spike down to 22 early. and it jumped back up. but it could do another retrace to that zone again. I want to see the 22-21.50 area hold strong again.This would be what the bullish pattern would want to do at that 21.50 shoulder. making it a reverse head and shoulders.
reverse head and shoulders
decent rally from the 20.40 bottom zone
AVXL hits the 23 target. are you looking for the pullback area now?
AVXL
and buying the bottom at
1.25
even better
I caught the current low with bids at 21.50
and I'll be happy to buy a little more at 18 area if it goes there.
do you think thats the way
price action works?
it could jump another 2 dollars and then pull back. it could do anything. What I chart is the mathematical formula of fibonacci and elliott wave to visualize what the pattern might look like . The other day I said we need to see a bounce at least reach 23. and we got that. now there is some breathing room on the technical chart for a pullback to hold at the 21.50 shoulder area and thats what a bullish pattern would look like. lets see if it develops that way or not. I would be happy to take a little profit at 35 when it gets there.
I look for best bargains to buy at the bottom zone, and then take some profit at the toppy zone. but these days mostly looking to buy and hold from now on. why sell any at 35 when you might get to sell at 135. But in any case, watching the patterns develop is a good way to understand what the price action is doing. Thats all I'm trying to do.
Is it possible
to see these big price swings as being like finding the attractive lower price that the big money wants to get in at? would they start buying at 28 weeks ago after a big surging rally to 31 or would they try to get the price to sell down and buy it at 20 or 21. would they think they can reverse this now and keep pushing it down to 18? I liked this 21 area to buy more. I like 18 too but step by step, its bargain shopping. I'm sorry I started a little early at 27 and 25, but I'm happy to catch this bottom at 20.50
looks good today so far
yes, that 20.50 target 20.30 got bought strong today and reaches the 23 target. I'm watching for the pullback to hold 21.50 area if it will
good bounce today
I disagree with that idea
I do both trading and long term holding, and my number 1 focus is on buying the best bargain lows I can find. and if it goes surging, try to sell a little for profit at the technical tops.
but wait, youre saying about watching the intraday everyday price action? well you have to keep an eye on the price action to see what it is doing along the track patterns to targets. Today has been looking like it wants to make a double bottom around 20.30 and it has a chance. but the key resistance it has to reach for a bullish bounce, in my view, is 23 area. If it falters around 22, we could see another downwave start hitting the teens. I'm buying small pieces along the way down. might take some small profits around 26-28 area.
But its a zone
from 22 to 17. I decided the other day to lower my first bids to 20.50 and got filled today. Looking now for some bounce to try and retest 23 and then see if 22 holds ok.
more resistance above 23 at 24 and 25 to watch carefully. it could take some time to get back into the surging 30's. if it zig zags down around 24-20-18
Listen folks,dont worry about
the AVXL pullback. this 22 area was a target to watch, and it stretches down to 17 in my view. It could hold at 22/21/20 etc. theyre all good bargain targets, 18 might be nice . buy some traders at 18 and sell em at 28.
I like that target too
on the chart pattern. not sure if in one day but the mat is looking at it. maybe close to 27.
The pullback zone to watch has been 24.50-24. as I highlighted days ago. to Hold strong. so far it shows that bounce today, looking like a jump start. the rally has to break thru resistance zones now to retest 28. and 26 area is the first.