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Here you go... Non-reliance on energy. We might have to bookmark this site. I'm still reading everything & trying to figure out how to build those Roman Aqueducts!
Trully, all joking aside, they have some outstanding products. (no.... I do NOT have a vested interest in their success OTHER THAN--> When I finally get to their site, they had better be in business!). I devour their catablog!
http://www.lehmans.com/custserv/customerservicemain.jsp?cid=1
Guess I should have read this one first!
But.. I have to say... the government can not help us. Yes, they can harm us, but they can't help us. I'm not sure that I know of ANY policy that came from Government that "saved" their own flounderings.
Remember the 2000 election? That we pondered the fate of a President walking into a terrible recession/bubble bust? That he (the Pres) may very well wish he had never sought the helm?
Wow.. think about those worries THEN. Follow that with comparisons to what occurred. And, if there is enough brain-power left after all that data crunching, then... then...
We must state again (4 yrs later)... "Gee... whoever wins this election may very well wish they had never sought the helm".
And the crystal ball as to WHY?????
Let's see. There's a blanket of dollars which probably cover the earth SIX TIMES (just a guess...) that are out there in foreigners hands. Gee... they are NOT counted in any of our famous "M's" (M1, M2, Mzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz). And when the Connecticut-sized glacier that sped off of Antartica floats them home to us, won't it be a dayyyyyyyyyy to remember????!! Meanwhile, more & more devalued dollars will chase more & more scarce resources. Scarce?? Yep.
And who wants to be President??? Check out our choices...
Bah Humbug.
Hey Gus! When Nick is away, my keyboard can play!
Great to be back. R-e-a-l-l-y great!
Have a great weekend on your trip. On the Vix? Wait a little bit... the days that make you soooooooooooo happy (VIX= North of 30-- possibly 35 ) have a good possibility of happening before Q4.
I want to be an Greg Iwan & say "mark this post" but, as soon as I do, I'll be a social outcast sitting in the corner with a blackened stamp marked "WRONG" on my forehead!
Yes, I got your email! I had so much to say, that I didn't have time... then, I tried & 'didn't have time'... then I tried & thought "geeeeeeeeeeeeezzzz... I'll get to the boards when the coast is clear". You have that g-r-e-a-t work ethic too... so, I know you understand.
And the land development? The family? The HVAC industry? Gaaaaaaaaads! I feel like I'm coming out of LaLa land! I did (however) see that you have some newbies on your "shorts" this morning. Now then, that gut feelin'... my guess is that it's still there!
They have no idea. Clueless. Just a bunch of famous blue hairs....
Now, now Court!!! Those market cycles exist outside of the Elliott theory... but hey, you got me. YEP! I STILL read the tealeaves! They've been wrong through this ENTIRE cyclical bull run (Mar 12, 2003 to just a weeeeeeeeeeee bit ago) but-- because the overall bear trend is in place -- they eventually become right! Gaaaaaaaaaaads!
But it was goooood for me to step back during that whole time. Toooooooo much work...... toooooo many acquisitions... tooooo little sleep. But, like the saying goes, perserverance DOES PAY!! Hahahahahahahahahahaha! This one's on me! Life is very good now. Thought I'd never get to the point that I could get back on this doggone board & talk with friends.
I've missed you all. There is a heepy bunch of missed posts. I wondered if I should read them all or let you tell it all to me again... or maybe... argue the points with me again! Now then, THAT would be fun!
And CowHampshire? The family? Business? Healthcare? And, how 'bout those stainless prices!!! And did I think of you everytime they shot to the moon??? Oh yes, I did... I did! But, then again {{{ capitalist that I am }}}, we certainly played the market well.
Well Nick...
The 4 yr, the 3.3 yr, and the 7/21 wk cyles are all pointed down. Not oddly, at the same time. Kinda scary. Kinda rare. But, hey! It's here!
The rarity happened in ummmm... '87?.... (not to raise eyebrows, but I bet that tidbit did! Caution: Not all tidbits are alike. Do not act upon any-ole-tidbit thrown at you! They can, and do, sometimes wreak havoc on your welfare!
Nonetheless, the tailgate tidbit is that the down cycle moves to a 'hard down' for Aug & Sep... maybe a bottom in (SURPRISE!?!) October. Don't be surprised if the folks with those crystal balls have something this time around. But then again, I'm sooooooooo confused!
Gotta love it ! Life is grand!
I do. That's what I've always called "free shares". Granted... it's great in a bull-market!
A loss of 24,000 mfg jobs. And the loss of manufacturing "plants"??
That's a huge point.
To read govt stats, our factories (in 2001) were at 70% capacity. If HALF of those plants closed, and the remaining plants experienced zero change, and we fast-forwarded to the present.... then we would (again) read govt reports stating we are at 70% capacity. They will NOT report that half of the pool they USED to count 'completely disappeared' from the report. Accordingly, they will NOT admit that due to the reporting pool size, the two reports are NOT comparable.
Now then... with this SEVERELY reduced manufacturing base in our country, we read that production 'increased' 4%. La Dee Dah...that's pretty 'neat', but... ummmmmmmm.... it should truly read "the last guys standing that DIDN'T close down actually managed to increase production 4% ". That's a totally different perspective.... and will have a totally different economic ripple effect going forward.
I do not see factory output making any more than "marginal increases" in production from August through October in our region. November? A drop. Commodity prices continue to escalate and, again, this is NOT sustainable.
Did you see Eric's CRB graph a heepy-bunch of posts back? Did you notice the graph confirmation of my statement that when prices escalate like this, we come down hard? Trust me... my fingers are crossed that "this time will be different", but the 'practical gal' in me says that I may very well be dancin' with false hope.
Bye the bye, Court... your increases are in medical #$%^&@$%! (<-- fill in at-will ) are HORRID! Are you going to self-fund? Beat down insurance competition doors?? Increases move to employees???
And, in so doing, they end up with an $80,000 Volkswagon?
Yupppppppp... brand new & fully stacked!
Short term memory loss, anyone?? It's "Gaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaddssss" !
It's up there with Alan's "ggggeeeeezzz" and your "Poly-tic's" (although, I heard you were considering renaming them all "deer tic's".)
LOL! I'm in trouble now!!!!!!!!! LOL!!!!!!!!1
Now then...
She dries her tearful eyes, takes a deep breath, and thanks the lord for the people in her life...
Hey, I never got the email! It would have explained this post? Why were you selling?
Bravo for the clerity of thought in your last sentence of this post........
Trust me, the prices are leaping (as opposed to a systematic rise). We are getting the highest prices that I have EVER seen on some grades of steel. I mean, "that I have EVER seen"! It is scaring all of us... it's unsustainable... & the history is such that after an unexplainable frenzy like this--> we go down hard.
It is wild. Simply wild. Each month we just shake our heads in disbelief. Phones are off the hook with everyone trying to figure out why all of this is happening ... trying to get a clear mindset. It started in the fall & it just keeps on amazing us all!
Or maybe he's getting ready for a mortgage/property market to implode??????
Now then, just WHAT is the curve ???
Since he has bought Clayton Mobile homes... and now their competitor, what's his thinking? That folks will lose their homes & migrate to his mobile units? Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm... inquiring minds want to know........... he always seems to be in front of the curve. Now then, just WHAT is the curve??
HaHaHaHaHa! As an insurer, he'll point weather devastated clients to his mobile homes??? Ohhhhhhhh no!!!!!!! An elite version of the company store!!
Go Eric! Is that not a book to DIE for????????
And what were your thoughts on Ayn Rand & Ole Greenspan? On his Gold Bug paper.... and the fact that (just this year) he responded to a reporter that he recently re-read it & wouldn't change a word in it???!!!!!!!!
Gaaaaaaaaaaaaddddddddddsssss!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I wanna wring his wirey little neck! But I just l-o-v-e-d the book !!
An important Gann awaits us!!!
http://www.oextradingresources.com/frames.html
If this doesn't show for you, the Gann is 10/24 +/- 1 day.
Miss you all! Thanks for the tip, Al!
Elena
Can anyone tell me what type of manic-depressive economics are going on???? This is this mornings' news. Read the first point, then read the second point... and which news do you think is MOST relevant (with more far-reaching repercussions?)... The "reality" or the "index"???
10:00am 08/05/03
U.S. July cuts up 43% to 85,117: Challenger By Rex Nutting
WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- U.S. companies stepped up the pace of layoffs in July, reversing a two-month downward trend, an international outplacement firm reported Tuesday. Job-reduction announcements rose 43 percent to 85,117 in July after falling to a 31-month low of 59,715 in June, according to the monthly tally by Challenger, Gray & Christmas, a Chicago-based employment firm. Through the first seven months of 2003, layoffs are down 12 percent to 715,649 compared with 816,493 in 2002. In July, consumer products companies cut 15,665 jobs. Transportation companies cut 9,820 and government and non-profit establishments cut 9,369 jobs.
10:09am 08/05/03
July ISM non-manufacturing surges to 65.1 By Greg Robb
WASHINGTON (CBS.MW)-- The services side of the U.S. economy expanded at a rapid pace in July, the Institute for Supply Management said Tuesday. The ISM non-manufacturing index rose to 65.1 percent in July from 60.6 percent in June. This is the highest level of the index since Oct 1997. This is the 4th consecutive month the index has been over 50. A reading over 50 indicates expansion in the non-manufacturing sectors of the economy. Market economists had expected the index to fall to 58.1 percent, in part because they viewed the large increase in June as unsustainable. The index surged to 60.6 percent in June from 54.5 percent in May. The new orders index jumped to 66.9 percent from 57.5 in May. The ISM is a diffusion index, measuring the breadth, not depth, of economic activity.
This is MORE than great reading! Thanks Bill!!! Made my DAY!
And lastly, the best rant I have read in the last six months... no holds barred... the LAST SIX MONTHS!!! It is GREAT! I savored it to the very last word!! Here goes...
MONEY-GRUBBING AT THE CENTRAL BANK
by the Mogambo Guru
I have something of vital importance to tell you.
Recently, I received intelligence that central banks plan to continue manipulating everything concerning gold, or money, or anything remotely connected with gold or money, until - and you may want to make a note of this in your planning calendar - long after we are all dead.
A very interesting article in the Financial Times entitled"Central banks to extend gold sales pact," written by Kevin Morrison on July 23, says that the "current agreement, which expires in September 2004, allows for 400 tonnes of gold to be sold each year. One central banker told the Financial Times recently that he thought "there was room for an increase in gold sales." The article speculates as much as 100 tonnes more room per year - upping the contract to 500 tonnes per year for five years, or another 2,500 tonnes of room to sell, sell, sell.
"Room," in this case, I guess, is a euphemism for "central banks would love to sell more" and that there is also a rising demand, too.
Well, duh.
Since the central banks have no interest in gold or real values for the money they are pledged to protect, then obviously there is LOTS of room on the supply side for an increase in gold sales. Like, sell all of it, dudes! And as for rising demand, well, all one has to do is look at the current selling price of gold, which is rising.
Too bad that all that gold, selling at around a measly $350 an ounce, is only worth about a lousy hundred billion or so dollars, eh? Imagine the money the government could have if gold was selling at $3,500 an ounce! Think of the social programs they could start with that trillion dollars! And if gold was $350,000 an ounce, and I gotta tell you that I'm getting pretty excited right here, then the governments could sell the gold for, let me get my calculator here, wait a minute, where is the damn thing, okay, here we go, let's see, $350,000 an ounce would be, ummm, $100 trillion dollars!
Mr. Morrison continues: "The original arrangement was signed in September 1999 in response to increasing concerns that uncoordinated central bank sales of gold were adding volatility to the market and pushing prices lower." This is what I call Exhibit A - that something is very weird, because when the supposedly biggest brains in all of Economics-dom had "increasing concerns" about whether or not adding huge dollops of supply in sudden chunks involving hundred of tonnes at a crack, and promises of more on the way, would meet with the demand curve at a lower price, you gotta go "Huh? This is news to you?" My God! If this is the depth of understanding of basic Economics 101 that is truly indicative of Fed and central banking thinking, then both common sense and history say that you would have to be a complete moron to have anything to do with them or their money, because something is worrisomely wrong with these guys (and here you gotta imagine that I am crossing my eyes and waving my index finger in little circles at my temple, to indicate what is referred to in polite company as "loony tunes").
The author of the article thoughtfully added a little educational content when he later writes, "The gold price fell to a 20-year low of $252 a troy ounce when the Bank of England announced its gold sales in the summer of 1999."
I remember the time well, as I have scrapbooks filled with newspaper clippings of me running around the city yelling, "Gold is at the biggest bargain basement prices of your lifetime, or any lifetime of your children, or your grandchildren! Buy gold! Buy gold, you fools! Buy buy buy!"
But the important thing, (and you know that this is an important thing because I just said so, so it must be
important), is that I was right about gold being the biggest freaking bargain of the whole freaking millennium, and anyone who had followed my advice would be fabulously wealthy by now, and would be sending me expensive presents out of sheer dumb-ass gratitude, like one of those spiffy new motor scooters would be nice, or maybe a batch of yummy toll-house cookies or something, but noooOOOooo!
So I say that you are welcome, you ungrateful little rascals, for giving you the greatest investment tip in all of recorded history, or what historians will naturally call the "Best Investment Advice Anybody Will Ever Get For The Next Thousand Years Or So." Which is, now that I think about it, worthy of a damn Nobel Prize, wouldn't you think?
And, since we brought up this whole Nobel Prize thing again, let me say that if I don't get this deserved Nobel Prize, then I promise you - and look me directly in the eyes so that you know that I am serious - that I am going to spend the rest of my life repeatedly repeating the phrase, "I called the exact bottom of the gold market," and you know that I am dead serious when I wrote "repeatedly repeating," which implies that there will be a time when you are going to get so sick of hearing me say, over and over and over, how I called the exact bottom in the gold market I called the exact bottom in the gold market I called the exact bottom in the gold market I called the exact bottom in the gold market that you will make it your holy crusade duty to get me that damn Nobel Prize even if it's the last thing you ever do on this earth, just to shut me up because you're so damn sick of hearing it! So if you know anybody on the Nobel Prize committee, then you let them know the evil that lurks in the mind of Mogambo, and perhaps that little bit of knowledge will prompt them into doing the only decent thing. And, if they ask, I'd like the million-dollar prize money in gold, as my clever way of being, well, you know, clever.
Anyway, right after he mentions that the gold price fell to a 20-year low when the Bank of England announced gold sales back in '99, this Mr. Morrison fella follows up by concluding that "the current pact has proved successful in adding order to the market." Man! This is too, too much! I mean, here I was paying attention, all serious and all, and out of left field he lets me have it between the eyes with this zinger! Pounding down the price of gold is, and believe me that I am as shocked as you are, known as"adding order to the market!" Well, I gotta say that I know a lot of economic buzzwords, and some slang words too, but I never heard that falling prices was "adding order to the market!"
But he is right, when you stop to think about it! Back then, back in the olden days of 1999, gently falling prices was a GOOD thing, and but we were so backwards that we merely called it "adding order to the market." And, actually, when the market is functioning perfectly, prices SHOULD be gently falling, as productivity works its magic! That's the whole freaking point of productivity! Ask Alan Greenspan, for crying out loud! He is positively obsessed with the idea of productivity, so he should know!
Okay, class, now put your books away, because we have a treat today. We are going to have a filmstrip supplied to us by SixSixSix Productions, an agency of the federal government, entitled "The Truth About Deflation." The lights go off in the room and the screen fills with images of price tags being replaced with lower and lower prices, one after another, as pages of old calendars are being flipped through in the background. Happy, bouncy music is played. Off in the distance, smiling little adorable children are happily playing with adorable puppies, that are, I might add, also being sold for lower and lower prices.
Now, the scene dissolves in a blur to signify the shifting of the scene, and the background music becomes discordant and dark, with low and gloomy tones. As the screen clears, we see, gradually coming into focus, that we are back to the present time. Price tags are being replaced with other tags for higher prices. The pages of après-2003 calendars are being flipped through in the background.
In the distance we see nasty, dirty little children tearing the body of a dead dog apart with their bare teeth. The scene is soon replaced with the image of an evil creature, who looks a lot like Greenspan, but with devil's horns because he is a lying, deceitful, amoral Demon From Hell Itself, and is thundering from the pulpit of some satanic dungeon! And whose voice sounds like the hiss of a snake as he calls prices that are gently falling a "deflation."
And who is chanting, in a rising, thunderous ovation,"Deflation is evil! Prices are not rising as fast as necessary! We must raise prices! This is because inflation is good! Inflation is your friend! I am your friend! Higher prices are good! Higher prices are your friend, too! We're all your friends! Ahhhh-hahahaha!" The filmstrip ends by fading to black, and there is the slight odor of sulfur in the room.
But, continuing with the metaphor of Greenspan appearing as the Devil and Jerry Mathers as the Beaver, the forces of Good and Light were not to be denied. They bought gold. Mr. Morrison adds credulity to that off-hand remark of mine when he writes, "Gold rose to about $320 shortly after the agreement was reached. After a brief subsequent fall it has risen steadily for the past two years."
"So why would governments, our own governments, do this to us - why would they sell gold and try to manipulate the price?" you ask in that charming little way you have that just melts my heart.
Grabbing our magnifying glasses on a frantic search for answers, we sleuth around for the vital clues. "The low returns to be made from lending gold to market participants hedging forward sales," says Mr. Morrison, "and the budgetary pressures on Germany and other leading economies will encourage the banks to continue sales of the precious metal."
"Although the gold price has firmed," our friend Mr. Morrison goes on, "the rate central banks can charge borrowers such as gold miners - which use it to hedge forward sales of the metal - has fallen. The miners have needed less gold as they have unwound their long-term hedge positions... Germany would be motivated to sell gold because it could probably earn a better return from a switch to other investments."
Of course, Mr. Morrison is befuddled along with the rest of us when he notes that in the EU, "central banks are not allowed to sell assets or reserves to help finance government budgets... " for fear of violating the Maastricht treaty.
Alas, there are other clues beneath the glass. "... there will be a day," says Robert Pringle of the World Gold Council, "when [central banks] will be able to conduct buying and selling activity without disrupting the market too much." But until such a day, "there are also ways that funds can transfer from the central banks to the Treasury, such as dividend payments," chimes in Matthew Turner, an analyst at Virtual Metals, a consultancy.
The reason, my nimble-minded reader, that European central banks would like to see their contract for gold selling renewed... even boosted up from 400 tonnes to 500 tonnes a year... is as old as the midas metal itself: good old- fashioned money-grubbing. Even they know a bull market when they see one coming.
Always with the money grubbing. Even at central banks, it seems, money-grubbing makes the world go round. I've already told you what I think you should to get in on it.
Regards,
The Mogambo Guru
for the Daily Reckoning
Editor's note: Richard Daughty is general partner and C.O.O. for Smith Consultant Group, serving the financial and medical communities, and the editor of the Mogambo Guru economic newsletter, an avocational exercise the better to heap disrespect on those who desperately deserve it.
The Mogambo Guru is quoted frequently in Barron's, The U.S. version of the Daily Reckoning, and other fine publications. You can catch the whole 'gambo diatribe each Wednesday, right here:
The Save Our Butts Plan http://www.dailyreckoning.com/body_headline.cfm?id=3335
And, I did NOT know that Greenspan said this....
Bill Bonner, back in Ouzilly...
*** "Is it important for an economy to have manufacturing?" asked Alan Greenspan, aloud, last week. "There is a big dispute on this issue. What is important is that economies create value, and whether value is created by taking raw materials and fabricating them into something consumers want, or value is created by various different services which consumers want, it presumably should not make any significant difference, so far as standards of living are concerned, because the income, the capability to purchase goods is there. If there is no concern about access to foreign producers of manufactured goods, then I think you can argue it does not really matter whether or not you produce them or not."
And here, dear reader, we reproduce a little dialog to help you understand the Fed chairman's new economy:
What will people do if they do not produce things?
Well, we can write mortgage contracts on each other's houses!
But where will they get the money to buy houses?
Hmmm... we can mow each other's lawns!
Yes, but if they cannot afford houses, how will they have lawns and lawnmowers?
Okay... well... we'll wash each other's clothes.
I don't think so, because you won't have any clothes... they're all made in China.
You mean, we'll be stark naked?
That's right, and homeless, because you won't have anything to trade with for clothes... or houses... or anything else.Well, at least we won't have to mow the lawn...
I've waited ALL day to post the next three posts...
Guys.. Today's "Daily Reckoning" should be framed. Here's my first exerpt for you (if you haven't read it):
..over to Eric for the latest news:
- Things are becoming particularly interesting at the government-sponsored entities (GSEs) Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Two weeks ago, the European Central Bank recommended that the national central banks throughout Europe cut their holdings of bonds issued by Fannie and Freddie - aka"agency debt." This recommendation coincided with a noticeable widening of agency credit spreads.
- In layman's terms, investors have been dumping Fannie's and Freddie's bonds even faster than they have been dumping Treasury bonds, thereby causing the yields on agency debt to soar even higher than the yield on Treasury debt. The difference between the two is called the "spread." A widening spread, all else being equal, is often a sign of corporate distress. And certainly, no company likes to see its yield spreads widen, especially not the country's largest mortgage lenders. (Last week, the spread on 10-year Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac debt increased about 22.5 basis points to trade at about 72.5 basis points over Treasuries Friday).
- "Noting that agency spreads have widened notably of late," Noland continues, "we recall how telecom debt spreads began to widen back in mid-1999... Credit availability became more restrictive and speculative losses began to mount. Eventually, a full-scale retreat of speculative finance from the sector ushered in spectacular collapse."
- Your New York editor believes that the widening credit spreads on Fannie and Freddie debt is the single-most important trend in the financial markets today. These widening credit spreads are not necessarily indicative of any serious trauma at the massive mortgage lenders. On the other hand, the widening spreads are not necessarily NOT indicative of serious trauma either.
- If Fannie and Freddie are having a problem, we've all got a problem.
--------------
Now then, Gus...
Safe Money agrees with you! Here's their latest..
Wall Street and the mass media have a habit of only highlighting the positive when it comes to economic news. We dig deeper past the sugary coating.
Take, for instance, the latest gross domestic product (GDP) report. Washington claims the economy grew at a 2.4% annual rate in the second quarter. That's still pretty lousy when you consider that the economy must grow at a rate of over 3% in order to create jobs. But it's even worse when you look at the details.
Defense spending contributed more than three-quarters of the 2.4% growth rate. Without defense spending, the economy barely grew at all.
Consumer spending on durable goods was up slightly but it was clearly because of bargain shopping. Zero-percent financing, no-money-down offers, and fire sales have allowed businesses to clear out some inventory, but that doesn't do much to boost profits nor does it mean that consumers are willing to spend on anything but deeply-discounted merchandise. And as consumers snap up these deals, they're debt levels are climbing higher and higher. This is a recipe for disaster, not a recipe for recovery.
For more evidence that Wall Street and the mass media gloss over the bad stuff, just take a look at some of the latest earnings reports. Here's the rest of the story ...
General Motors: Profits at the biggest automaker in the world fell 30% in the second quarter versus the year-ago period. In the meantime, profits at the company's massive North American auto operations plummeted 94% as price wars tore into profits.
Dow Jones: Earnings at the Wall Street publishing beacon plunged 43% in the second quarter as advertising revenues from the company's flagship Wall Street Journal tumbled.
Maytag: The commercial and home appliance giant's second quarter net income sank 63% -- to just $25 million from $68 million in the year-ago period. The culprit: Lousy market conditions and a dismal performance by the company's floor-care products division.
Boeing: The world's largest aerospace company swung to a loss of 24 cents a share in the second quarter (from a profit of 94 cents a share a year earlier) and lowered its earnings outlook for 2003 AND 2004! That's not all: The airplane making behemoth plans to shed another 4,000 to 5,000 jobs by the end of the year ... and that's on top of the approximate 34,735 jobs it cut so far.
Bottom line: Things aren't as rosy as Wall Street says at many of the nation's largest companies.
Take a look at some of the other developments in the economy and the markets ...
* The housing market is sinking fast. Refinance applications plunged an astounding 32.9% for the week ending July 25. Mortgage rates are rising and it's knocking the wind out of the housing industry.
http://www.safemoneyreport.com/home/daily.asp?archive=073003
* Consumer confidence is fading. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index for July fell to its lowest level in 4 months. The war is over, the economy is supposedly rebounding, and stocks are supposedly in a new bull market. So why are consumers so pessimistic?
http://www.safemoneyreport.com/home/daily.asp?archive=072903
* MORE bankruptcies. Mirant Corporation recently became the 11th largest company to file for bankruptcy protection in US history. And we suspect that there are hundreds of other companies still on the verge.
http://www.safemoneyreport.com/home/daily.asp?archive=072803
I'll go one step better....
Think of the folks on this board (including Mike who posted a good chart on the wrong board!) who "keep us honest". Read this one... I got it today & knew RIGHT away WHERE I wanted to post it! Yep.. Folsom is writing again.. here it is..
Earlier this year Warren Buffet made bearish comments about the stock market and said, "derivatives are financial weapons of mass destruction." This was widely reported in the media and sparked several days of debate among other commentators.
Mr. Buffet is the most successful active investor alive today, so the coverage of his remarks was no surprise.
But note that I said most successful active investor; one man is still alive who was arguably even more successful than Warren Buffet, though at 90 years old he's not active in the markets.
John Templeton is his name, and he remains active in other ways -- mainly giving away much of the investment fortune he earned, to charitable and religious causes he believes in.
The man's long-term success -- and gift for knowing when to be a contrarian -- is nothing short of epic. He turned bullish on U.S. stocks in 1939, when Western Civilization itself seemed at stake. He turned bullish after the 1987 crash. He was able to earn a 15% annual investment return for 38 consecutive years.
He also made very bearish comments about U.S. stocks in 1999 and 2000.
These days it's rare for Mr. Templeton to make public comments about stocks. Yet he did so this month (July) in an interview with Equities magazine; unlike Warren Buffet, John Templeton's views received virtually no media coverage. I came across them literally by accident. The quotes below summarize his view of equities, home prices, and debt.
"The stock market is broken, and it will take some time, maybe years, to repair it."
"Every previous major bear market has been accompanied by a bear market in home prices . . . . This time, home prices have gone up 20%, and this represents a very dangerous situation. When home prices do start down, they will fall remarkably far."
"The total debt of America is now $31 trillion. That is three times the GNP of the U.S. That is unprecedented in a major nation. No nation has ever had such a big debt as America has, and it's bigger than it was at the peak of the stock market boom. Think of the dangers involved."
I don't know why Mr. Templeton's views went unnoticed. Maybe the media saw them as the ravings of an old man; maybe most reporters don't even know who he is.
Still, by all accounts, John Templeton personally is an optimistic man. We understand. Telling the truth about the trends you see doesn't make you a "doomer" -- it makes you honest.
On another note or two...
I'm headin' to Atlanta mid-month for an extensive 3-day stock analysis/trading seminar.. yep... there's candlesticks in it too. I'm apprehensive but open minded. My biggest hope is that I don't blow holes into everything said. Counterproductive? Yep... but you never know until you hear what they have to say.
And the second note is that I finally got the 3-volume set 'The Case for Gold'. It will have to wait until 'time' is found, but I am excited about it!
Still buried guys... but it's getting better. Hope to get with you all soon.
Elena
Economists gone awry??? Pom pom Feds???
Well now... seems the thing to do would be start a 'public' movement! If I were DEAD WRONG (or had a multitude of 'surprises') in my job, I'd be hittin' the pavement before I knew what was coming at me!
But these guys??? Ohhhhh... they keep their jobs.. they rationalize their errors (hey! I just HAD to rob that bank cuz my granny was sick & needed money. NO way do you jail me!) And guess what??? No way do we fire them! In fact, we can't WAIT to read how wrong they are the 'next time' they forecast & broadcast their {sic} wisdom.
So what d'ya say we petition... via internet... via "WSJ.com", "Bloomberg.com" and any other (Drudge will do) site that has the 'thinking public pulse'. Include this site too! We do a 'three strikes your out' on any forecast, on any mis-information. Regardless of what they have to say, if they're wrong.. or surprised... 3 times, then they are blocked from respective publications (or any link to other publications which quote them) for one year... and especially barred from "2nd half" predictions! If they can't get it right, don't voice it. And.. we could go one step further... we could eliminate the entire dud-economist market by publishing their professors' names! How 'bout that? We could stop the politics on the graduate level.. professors wouldn't pass the sub-standard student for any political/influencial reason whatsoever!
Imagine... just imagine... and all it would take is a concerted effort to petition... We'd end up with ONLY the best guys at the microphone! And that, dear hearts, would be the 'SURPRISE' of the century!
Ooops.. shoulda' known you'd be there first! LOL! Life is good... and the eyes still work!
I wasn't on the same wave-length with "debt decreased two years ago"... so, I checked. Isn't the last decrease in '95 (or have I worked so hard today that my eyes are tricking me?). Help me out here...
http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/opd/opdpenny.htm
So, you are bona fide now? And, "uh-oh... she's counted to three". Like.. three is the end of the world???
Truly enjoyed reading your research. I disagree that you're slow in noticing the trend. The big 'tilt' of the picture, and your uneasiness with it, CAUSED you to do the research. Intuitive? Yep.
Now then... also loved the post that the 500B is AFTER all other funds were IOU'd to the hilt.. we must NOT forget that cute little accounting trick.
Back in college, I read this incredible book whereby the author gave wonderful examples which proved his theory that 'authors are the poet laureates of history'. Basically, they write... THEN it happens. Sci-Fi has seen this happen time & again. Butttt... give me a little time here....
Wayyyyyyyy back in time (when the dime novels about the West circulated on the Eastern shore), a famous author described the 'mountain man' as burley, wearing leather jackets with leather fringe about the arms, and totally void of social mannerisms. The book was a hit. Better yet, the "jacket with the fringe" became the identifying mark of the mountainman. Marketing began... everyone going West wanted one.. and voila! The mountain man we know today, was born! Previous to that broadly accepted novel, there wasn't a mountain man in the Rockies who even owned a jacket like that. Better yet, they'd never SEEN a jacket like that. Again, the authors were the "poet laureates of history". Basically, "if they write it, it will happen". This brings me to Court... and to Asia...
Every periodical is pushing Chinese investment... that's where the money will be... that's where the demand will be. And, given that broad-based intellectual support, it follows that money will actually be poured (literally) into that region. It's happening already. And with that massive injection of capital, an area that is 'backward' seeks modernization. Previous untolerated changes in political views are accepted in order to submit to the change. With the wealth of the world aimed at one focal point, then what happens? "if you write it, it will happen". There isn't enough resources on this planet to materialize the industrial revolution in China that is being anticipated in writing. And, if they get just half way through the idiological distance projected, it will be (and IS) to the detriment of all other existing competition. These poet laureates, much like the focus of 'tech' poet laureates, will manage to move money from the pockets of otherwise prudent investors into investments which are at risk in countries which have an absolute lack of legal systems to support the investment. But... it'll happen anyway. And folks will make money in one form or another. But, it will always be to the detriment of other existing forms of competition. Ahhhhh! We are back to 'everything is relative', no?
Got it! Keep us posted. I just LOVE the "attitude change". See? We gals KNOW one another!!
Life is good...
It's 9:30pm & I'm about to drop... another 14hr day.
The sale was completed 7/1. I'm up to my head in computer transitions/new files/new employee meetings/benefit administrators... oh... just more than I can type at this time. In the midst of all of that, we're moving the main office into a new location which is only 3/4 built! Gaaaaaads, Nick, I may NEVER come up for air! This transition is intense; systems are new; lots of changes. We'll see... we'll see...
Nite to all. I miss you all dearly.
Elena
I'm pretty doggone flabberghasted! I can't navigate RB worth a hoot anymore... missed all the updates on what Ron & his wife are doing... then, ** poof **.. everyone's gone!
And now Robert.. who remembers the (sighhhhhh) ever-so-lovely Ms.Lilly !!! I swore I'd remember everyone. This has GOT to be RC? Robert, are you RC??