I'll go one step better....
Think of the folks on this board (including Mike who posted a good chart on the wrong board!) who "keep us honest". Read this one... I got it today & knew RIGHT away WHERE I wanted to post it! Yep.. Folsom is writing again.. here it is..
Earlier this year Warren Buffet made bearish comments about the stock market and said, "derivatives are financial weapons of mass destruction." This was widely reported in the media and sparked several days of debate among other commentators.
Mr. Buffet is the most successful active investor alive today, so the coverage of his remarks was no surprise.
But note that I said most successful active investor; one man is still alive who was arguably even more successful than Warren Buffet, though at 90 years old he's not active in the markets.
John Templeton is his name, and he remains active in other ways -- mainly giving away much of the investment fortune he earned, to charitable and religious causes he believes in.
The man's long-term success -- and gift for knowing when to be a contrarian -- is nothing short of epic. He turned bullish on U.S. stocks in 1939, when Western Civilization itself seemed at stake. He turned bullish after the 1987 crash. He was able to earn a 15% annual investment return for 38 consecutive years.
He also made very bearish comments about U.S. stocks in 1999 and 2000.
These days it's rare for Mr. Templeton to make public comments about stocks. Yet he did so this month (July) in an interview with Equities magazine; unlike Warren Buffet, John Templeton's views received virtually no media coverage. I came across them literally by accident. The quotes below summarize his view of equities, home prices, and debt.
"The stock market is broken, and it will take some time, maybe years, to repair it."
"Every previous major bear market has been accompanied by a bear market in home prices . . . . This time, home prices have gone up 20%, and this represents a very dangerous situation. When home prices do start down, they will fall remarkably far."
"The total debt of America is now $31 trillion. That is three times the GNP of the U.S. That is unprecedented in a major nation. No nation has ever had such a big debt as America has, and it's bigger than it was at the peak of the stock market boom. Think of the dangers involved."
I don't know why Mr. Templeton's views went unnoticed. Maybe the media saw them as the ravings of an old man; maybe most reporters don't even know who he is.
Still, by all accounts, John Templeton personally is an optimistic man. We understand. Telling the truth about the trends you see doesn't make you a "doomer" -- it makes you honest.
