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A huge relief that your home & household weathered the storm! Two hours of horizontal rain is unimaginable; the most we've experienced is around 30 minutes. That, in itself, is always a precursor to downed trees & compromised fence lines here.
If ever you had buyers remorse on the purchase of the Generac, that remorse is gone now! Rightly so! Not sure how they'll get the LP refilled given the overhead pictures of road conditions, but here's hoping it can happen as scheduled. As an aside, we bought a 1000g tank in the face of protests for a 500g tank because we doubted the ability for prompt refill. Their argument was that entire Amish communities run on 500g individually owned tanks & we were only ONE household. Bah humbug--they don't have a moat around their homes with an impassable bridge!
I truly hope all of our donations for aid are not absorbed 'back office' and truly get to the community. Though news wires tell the story as it happens, and subsequent individual stories, they sometimes fail to tell the afflicted community the response of readers and viewers. I can tell you that it is genuinely heartbreaking. This is tragic for many of your neighbors and fellow Floridians and sending donations can help the 'rolling up of sleeves' but the loss experienced mentally & emotionally is shattering. Again, heartbreaking.
So pleased that you chimed in to keep us posted; hoping that your water is turned back on (I'm sure they are testing its quality), and that the landscape can be restored with trees of your liking.
Good news Nick. Thank you!!
Wow George... speechless..
Was supposed to retire June 4th.. asked to stay another 4- 6 months... so I'll be at work all day. Will check back with high hopes that our Nick & family is truly unscathed. So pleased you kept us posted !
Actually, between toggling from The Weather Channel & MSNBC w/ Brian Williams, I am exhausted. Undone over the drain of Tampa Bay. Feel like I actually experienced the storm from each & every county. Scary, gut wrenching, worried for all the folks. Watched non-stop all waking hours.. even up at 4:00 am this morning looking for an 'all clear' on the storm surge. So pleased you have a Generac!!! We ave a Koehler whole home-- nothing beats these units!
Two canons!!! Lol! What a great idea!
The tracking on Irma keeps shifting west before it turns; this is not good for you! I have not heard a good explanation as to why the models are certain of a turn. Now, the eye has been conducting a lengthy 'hug' of the Cuban coast which I hadn't anticipated given the view of all the models. Never have seen a eyewall hugging so much coastline: it has to have devastated everything on the Cuban coast.
Regardless of how this storm conducts itself in the next 48 hours, or wherever it chooses to turn, just let us know that you are okay.
Thought about you for the past couple of days. Couldn't stand it... had to hit the keyboard. This storm is incredibly powerful & my hope is that you are unscathed throughout the ordeal. Truly Nick-> unscathed. Stay safe; avoid projectiles; keep us posted. Our thoughts are with you and all of the folks in the path of this vicious storm.
Really?
The farm is great!! Soooo pleased you were talking ( circa 2009/ 2010 ) about farmland. You are absolutely right. Can't wait to see if you get the electric car (don't tell me! I have to read it as it happened!)
Was very pleased on your Student Loan cautionary posts in 2010; wondering if trading in subsequent years was as good as your 2010 year-- which you said was your best-to-that-date. Found that I couldn't wait for the ECRI WLI Friday report & your interpretation of it.
Your (post 55316) nailed EARLY what is happening now and, of course, the next post (55317) Court has the perfect response.
That year was the most I've ever seen you post on energy. You also made an absolutely dead-accurate prediction that coal was dead going forward. Investors should have read those detailed posts more closely.
Hope there is more as I read.
Lots of good discussions (Elroy, George, Gus, Nick, Tony, you, and more folks than I can type with these crossed eyes).
Just want everyone to know that the efforts of jotting down your thoughts are STILL paying off. I was the recipient; thank you!!
OMG! I never thought reading a year of your morning, midday, or late-day thoughts could be so instructive!! Truly.
Your best 'novel' idea--> last paragraph of post 55293. Your best "make her fall out of her chair"--> post 55418!! I'm sure there is more to come, but these two made me grab a pen & jot the post number.
Never say you don't 'tell it like it is'! :)
What a trip through time... Dec 2009 thru Jan 2011
2,471 posts. 9,843 to go. Read every post, bypassed very few links. My eyes are crossed but the read is well worth it.
Kudos to one specific post which had everything to do with reality & I'm glad someone finally "told it like it was". MMCiastro (Tony, no?) post #55234.
What have I done since November, 2009? Since it is Sunday, the market is closed, this OT answer would be okay, no?
Let’s see…
Went (as you know) 100% metals—crazy, thrilling, ride—no stocks, no bonds.
I am a better person for it & wouldn’t change a thing. It was probably the best thing I ever did.
Weathered the Great Recession & lent a helping hand to those that didn’t or couldn’t weather it.
Lived through (literally) the Bad Health Bug biting family members for 3 critical years. Big emotional toll. The worst thing that happened to me was a cavity but this whole experience has lightened the bounce in my walk; I appreciate life & blessings a whole lot more, and am confident that positive thinking is, without a doubt, a mainstay.
Became proficient at every word game or brain teaser in the App store. Would kill to stay in the top 5%.
Read volumes of “multiple book series” that I had NO IDEA were ever published. Evidently, I was looking too closely at the financial world. Great books.
Nailing down my 30rd year at work, my 40th year with JW. Would not change a thing on either front.
Watched every meaningful measurable economic indicator get skewed, become un-meaningful; witnessed HISTORIC warping in every financial quadrant; am watching Fed intervention with horrible future consequences; and the debt bubble globally has compounded to levels beyond validation or imagination. Every educated bone I have tells me that this debt will unravel ‘worse than unpleasant’ even if unraveling is fractional. The higher the fraction, the more profound the ripple effect. Then again, I guess you are living through it too!
Regardless of reports, the economy (from my perspective) is moving at a snails pace. Folks are touting an illusion of recovery and, during the entire “tout”, are wondering if the illusion is real or fabricated. The data we are fed does not mirror the landscape whether it is financial or employment data.
We should have a “Scratching their head in Wonder & Confusion” graph? my guess is that it would be at a historic high.
A GDP growth “initial” stat gets revised repeatedly for 24 months after its first print. Historically after a recession (much less the “Great Recession”), it is revised DOWN 2-4%. In my book, that’ll put us close or IN negative data territory.
So, what we are experiencing is the look, feel, & touch of a recession but when we look at the scoreboard? hey, we got game! And, over time when the previous scores are revised, we find that we’re saying ? hey, we ain’t got game?! All that head scratchin’ was a valid clue???
So there you have it. A one page synopsis of nearly four tough years. Very glad to participate again and very pleased to catch with longtime friends. I truly want to finish reading so that I can catch up to your present without being redundant!! :)
Prodigal daughter here.
12314 unread posts.
Gaaads...
Nick: this is totally off topic..
My sister sent this to me. Have you heard anything about this????? Surely there has been some coverage. On the surface, it is very, very disturbing. I just don't know how valid it is.
A merciless reversal.... hmmmmmmm... glad I bet on a volatile VIX!
Like I told Court, I sure hope I can get back here tomorrow. Looks like more posters have been ill... Is everyone okay????
Great article!
On Currency Carnage: Take a look at DBV. It's an ETF that performs a "carry trade" investment theme. Basically, they are shorting the trashed currencies (dollar & yen) and are long the high yield strong currencies. When the tide turns (as this author speaks of), then this ETF changes their long/short positions.
This is not a 'push' to have anyone invest, but rather it is a way-- by looking at the chart of this ETF -- to see how this plays out. The price action of the ETF doesn't have a very big range so...... like in all currency trades.... BIG BUCKS with tiny moves creates the large returns ( or... that's how I see it). That's tough for the not-a-zillionaire investor.
If I can get to a conputer tomorrow, I have oooooooodles of things I can't wait to talk over. I'll be off (taking daughter for outpatient surgery) & maybe can get a few words to you online.
I'm totally shocked that I live in a give-away country which, in just a few months, trashed basic American ethics and laws in the name of some damn survival of the fittest scheme.
I must agree with you! I opened VXX @ 46.46 today.
If we are both right, then we should be in a goooooood position.
Hope you know my absence is 'workload' based... especially from coming back from such a severe illness...
This is to say that I'm getting better every day but am still chiseling on a mountain of work. I'll get there!!
Nick, not sure if you see things this way, but we seem to be set for a 3rd wave down (Wave 1 down lasted 17 months & ended Mar 9..... Wave 2 up has lasted 7.5 months & should end shortly... Wave 3 down will be the next move. Not sure if the timing is right, but feel that (like you said) we could be looking at an important top when this rally feigns (sp).
Me too...
Not so depressive as some of the bears out there (and... with some Broadway delivery of sorts), here's a little tidbit that is a bite without the blood.... but bites deep...
Thought for the day... for the year... for a lifetime...
One teaspoon of granulated white sugar is equal to about 4.2 grams. If you are buying a bottle of cola with 44 grams of sugar, you would divide 44 by 4.2 which is equal to 10 teaspoons of sugar.
Source: http://nutrition.about.com/od/askyournutritionist/f/gramconversion.htm
Regular Coke? Can states: 39 grams... that's 9 1/3 teaspoons.
When thirsty, who thinks: gee... I'll drink 12oz of water & then dip my teaspoons 9 1/3 times into a sugar bowl to 'chase it down'?
Wouldn't it be "chance" if the turn came on the Nov 11 Bradley?? Gaaaaaaaaaaads. Elroy would just die if a tea leaf worked that well!!! LOL!
I'm waaaaaaaaaaaaay behind on reading. Not sure when I can catch us. I took a ten-day vacation & played at the lake. Lots of fun! We got a Bayliner bow rider recently but we are toooooo late to buy tubes for the kids. Can't find them anywhere. Loads of work waiting when I got back. :(
I'm very (VERY) pleased with gold. If the dollar finally bottoms soon, I'm sure there will be a turn around. Just read an article that put gold in terms of other currencies in perspective: their bottom line is that there is no change in gold prices internationally. (I don't have time to run the numbers but am taking the article as valid).
I opened TIE today. I think it is a good play on titanium & should be a good longterm investment. The downside risk is small IMHO. Hope you all have a chance to look at it.
Maybe this weekend will bring me an opportunity to catch up. Missed you all! Gotta go...
Wow! Thanks... I let it go @ 11.42. Not greedy, just love a gain!
Had to do this... waiting on Ms Lilly to go to your target of 31.50. I just died when you posted that entry level cuz she hasn't seen that level except for two times in the last year!
She's at 32.94 now... it's going to take some more time.
If history is any guide, a 31.50 entry (even though they have expiring patents) would be great. JMHO
So sorry... yes. Typed too fast :(
The Baltic Dry Index turned down again. This surprises me. I'd like to see your chart again & see what might be cookin' on the homefront.
If you have time (which I seem to have NONE), I'd like to see it & I would certainly appreciate any commentary!
Gotta go..
E
And the ECLI chart... where can I get it?
Opened FXP @ 11.01
I read that the put activity for Sept started moving up past ten days or such. It's almost like the classic "if you build it, they will come". Sometimes they make happen the very thing they're worried about.
See that, Nick! Inquiring minds want to know...
Dannnnnnnng! 33.03 was the buy point????? Why didn't you say that!!!
All you said for the past couple of days was that she was lookin' good, maybe she'd take you for a walk, then you hammered down the news that she was running out of patents (yes, Nick "patents" not "patience") LOL!
But you never gave an entry point... without patents & patience, she might not shine so well going forward? What do you think the upside is?
It's not a different market. It is still a rally within a bear market.
What "should" happen as consequences in a capitalistic society.... is being legislated away with postponement tactics. The rule is that the piper must be paid (regardless of legislation) unless time can be bought to make the problem disappear or be hidden better.
I know this to be a bear trap. Others know it to be a relief rally. Still others know it to be the beginning of a bull run & the ending of a recession.
For me, a good reading on the investment climate is mandatory. There is going to be some storms ahead in the next few months, but the whopper might not come until 2010 (IMHO). This puts a lot less pressure on me in the meantime :)
Also, the opinions of the board help me make my trades.
It's like the ice cream shop sign in North Dakota during December: "Closed for the season. Reason: Freezin'". I don't really care to show up to a market that is not functioning!
Glad to see your PIF sign. Bravo!
I'm good to go then in conveying this (your post confirms my thought on a short term correction ...)
Yes, a correction is coming. It will be short lived in that a slope of hope, intervention, and risk taking is going to keep the indexes up. For the intermediate term? Bull. But the long term? Bear.
No matter what chart I look at, no matter what lingering problem is out there, they all look like the day of reckoning can be postponed until mid-2010.
Lots of shoes will drop at that point. And... believe it or not... that's when I think the r-e-a-l Wave 2 top will be. Take any author or technician that I follow & I'll bet they take g-o-o-d argument with me. In fact, they'd say "prove it". But I trully believe the cycle low lives in mid 2010. Many cycles should bottom at that point.
In my reading....
They are all stating that the retracement has hit the 'minimum' fibonnaci level. That's pretty clear. The maximum level is still out there. Are we on it or not?
If they are right on the wave count, then the seventeen month Primary Wave 1 down ended Mar 9... Primary Wave 2 up should last a minimum of 3 months (satisfied) and reach a minimum of fibonnaci 38.2% (satisfied). This just means that 'any ole turn thereafter could be the BIG "Primary" turn which brings about Primary Wave 3 down (which, by shear definition, should go lower than the March 9 low ). There are many waves within a Primary degree & some of the turns within those 'mini' waves are just that--> turns within a mini wave. So... are we on it or not? I don't think so.
What to worry about is the doggone turn in the Primary Wave 2. (Cuz... Wave 3 down should be the worst of the worst.. or, if we take advantage of inverse ETF's, we can make it the best of the best.)
What gets in the way of these century old proven waves is intervention... it elongates the natural rip & run of a bear market... and extends the play over longer time periods. The result is the same... it just postpones the inevitable. Like I said, I don't think we're on it... intervention is in play... postponement will probably have a great deal of influence on the natural wave count.
Actually, any level can make a turn, but the fibonacci levels & elliot levels are:
37.5% Retracemt: Dow 9368
38.2% Retracemt: Dow 9422
40.0% Retracemt: Dow 9561
Another level to watch: Dow 9654-9794
50.0% Retracemt: Dow 10334
60.0% Retracemt: Dow 11107
61.8% Retracemt: Dow 11246
62.5% Retracemt: Dow 11300
66.7% Retracemt: Dow 11622
Since this might be toooooo long of a post, (and boring some of the pro's here) I'll continue on the next post with my thinking ...
Missed you all! Short term... it can get s-c-a-r-e-y, no?? Love that VIX!
Here's the next WEEKLY gann... this opens the window of Oct 23 to Nov 06. The strong Bradley lies on Nov 11. Hmmmmmmmmmm.....
My guess (currently) is that each of those turns will be an 'up' turn. If true, then any downside carnage would be ending then, no??
Hey Gang! The MACD on the OEX (on a monthly basis) has been nailing the turns on a LONG TERM basis. Wondering what your thoughts are... here's the commentary that my favorite guy from Norway had to say:
"In the OEX, the last time a MACD MA crossover occurred was in Nov. 2007, issuing a sell signal at that point, as this monthly chart shows. So they don't come around often these long term MACD signals but when they do, its worth listening to what the market is trying to say, because using the chart history as proof, these signals often portend a change in the market tide.
However, both SP markets closed up against its first Fibonacci resistance, (38.2%) calculated from the Oct. 2007 - March 2009 decline, while the Nasdaq Comp has already reached its 50% retracement area.
So a temporary pullback on its way higher, is not ruled out. Short & Medium term, this QQQQ Weekly setup looks interesting in this regard, forming a weekly Hammer reversal candlestick up against two meeting trendlines, making this a tough resistance area to overcome on the first attempt."
Do we have any views on this LONG TERM chart?
It depends on the definition of "right", right?
I grabbed the highlights off the WSJ these past two weeks, but I never read anything about these projections...
A clip from Byron King's writing today..
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Reflections from Vancouver
by Byron W. King
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
... Last week, for example, the Federal Reserve predicted that the U.S. unemployment rate would surpass 10% in the coming months.
That's no big surprise. The true U.S. unemployment rate as at least 15% already when you factor in the long-term unemployed who are not carried on the "official" books.
Then the Fed made a shocking prediction. It forecasted that the U.S. economy would add NO NET NEW JOBS over the next five years! Whoa!
No net new jobs? That ought to scare you. The Census Bureau predicts that the U.S population will grow over five years. But the numbers of new jobs will remain static. That is, for every job gain there will be a loss.
This job-stagnation is a recipe for all sorts of bad things at the local, state and national levels. Government budgets won't balance, so I guess we can plan on more "cost saving" measures such as releasing prisoners early and closing schools. Yep, that's how to build a great nation...
I am compelled to face South, put a mat on the floor, fall to my knees with lowered brow & hail the King of Cash !!
Taking 1,000 to 5,000 share trades with prices in the $40's+, those returns yielded some Happy Benjamins. My head is reeling....
What I hate most is that I read your trades at the end of the day (both buy & sell). Dannnnnnng.. I cannot WAIT for retirement!!! I might even buy a bicycle with flaming neon sparkles & plant it in front of your house. That would be the equate to: "Kilroy was Here". (Just so you know it was ME! Advance notice of neighborhood embarrassment is ALWAYS a plus!).
Good going!
Since you've read for years, then you also need to tell the admins that "geeeeeeeeezzzzzz' is not a form of spam.
(just in case Alan rubbed off on you)
Are any of those stats around this period of time?
Hate to tell you this Phil, but any friend of Alan is a friend of mine. I require gifts... expensive gifts... all tea leaves that you have... and lace anything you want with a really good story! Glad you could finally log in!
Welcome!
You probably have this, but here's a quick way to tour... maybe find your cup of tea (pun intended):
http://www.proshares.com/funds?products=98616&fundType=
Nick... if our market can find a way to make money, it jumps at it. Take a look at this video.
Background: California IOU's will not be accepted at banks. Per Marketwatch: "the Securities & Exchange Commission said that those IOUs actually represent "securities," it started some machinations that could turn the IOU system from temporary assistance to the next wave of municipal finance. "
Here's how the little guy can 'discount' his IOU (remember, there are 1/2 BILLION IOU's from California):
http://www.marketwatch.com/video/asset/marketwatch%20video/B510DED1-7998-4AF6-B8BE-1C9D61FAFCB6?siteid=nwhpf