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re: Rifici -- New co.
Like Silver Wheaton then, only with cannabis. Worked out pretty well with silver...
Interesting. We've got three general business models now to choose from in the cannabis space (as investors): regular, B2B, and now streaming.
Him dumping his shares last week explains the sudden suppression of Canapy's price although all the small caps I watch seem to be under pressure as well. Kind of weird that large caps have benn hanging in there as reflected in the major indexes (with US stocks at least.
After sales license status granted will most probably get a nice boost but the way the overall market looks, it may be a slower lift-off than some around here are imagining.
Low earth orbit for sure, but the moon is after all, pretty far away despite its visibility. It may take until next year to get there.
re: "Hoping we get rich is almost the same thing as hoping others remain poor"
But it's not the same thing. Investing in Canopy is a good thing. imo
In regard to invoking Ruskin to wax philosophical about investing in Canopy:
I think Ruskin was actually being critical of the prevailing 19th century orthodoxies he was surrounded by, e.g. Manifest Destiny, Imperialism, etc. As a wealthy individual himself, mainly passionate about fine art, he can be credited with attempting some philanthropy and glimmerings of social awareness but wasn't immune to certain ideas that infect the aristocratic mindset:
"If there be any one point insisted on throughout my works more frequently than another, that one point is the impossibility of Equality. My continual aim has been to show the eternal superiority of some men to others, sometimes even of one man to all others; and to show also the advisability of appointing such persons or person to guide, to lead, or on occasion even to compel and subdue, their inferiors, according to their own better knowledge and wiser will." —("Works of John Ruskin", Cook and Wedderburn 17.34)
The trouble is, the wisest among us are wise enough not to seek power. It's the fools and arrogant brutes that most easily self assume having the wiser will. This is why royalty, the fuedal class system, authoritarian regimes ruled by party elites or oxymoronic communist dictators, unfortunately, that seems to be the default state in human history. Fortuneatly, democratic systems are still having a go, though it would be nice if they could evolve to be a bit more fool-proof.
Humans are deserving of mutual respect, equal to each other by virtue of being human. Most people understand this nowadays and realize that allowing their neighbors' prosperity enables their own.
Investing in WEED is to participate in wealth creation. Stock ownership in general, is a practical way by which "the common man" or for workers to actually "own the means of production". We see remarks about "the powers that be" controlling the markets and could surmise that elitists are still around possessed of what should be, a defunct mindset, intent on advancing their elevated station by subduing their "inferiors". It follows that discouraging retail investors by various means (artficial price gyrations, misinformation etc.) is aimed at keeping that self-managed retail ownership factor below a certain minimum (by utilizing every trick to try to relieve them of their capital). Instead, those duly cowed peons that remain standing, with money to invest, are herded over to professional fund managers under the big money umbrella (who still relieve them of their capital, just not as much, or perhaps get metered out a modest gain in return for surrendering their power of investment decision ).
People like ourselves who try to school ourselves about stocks and after much work and DD finally settle on a nice stock (like Canopy). Why then does it become like trying to ride a bucking bronco? It shouldn't be so hard. We may theorize that it isn't all our fault.
re:"Mining Lease Grant "
Was expecting more of a boost from that. Oh well.
Once more scandium becomes generally available, the "chicken or the egg" paradox currently inhibiting the scandium market will be resolved.
This means that inventory in the vault is ok and can be sold.
re: "Something help it! "
Not right away, but we are now entering grand solar minimum (maybe worse). People are going to need lots of fuel (e.g. nat gas) to try to keep warm.
re: "one for 5 reverse split:
That's not too bad as reverse splits go.
re:"I think the examples could be hypothetical or real..."
If the examples were purely hypothetical, one would expect the wording to be more general, such as, "an appropriate dose between such and such" and "show improvement" instead of the exact dosage, timeline and symptom incidences given. This suggests that it was probably tried out on a couple of confidential volunteers at the time, but this was "unofficial". The patent only requires illustrative example of use, so although it seems to originate in a vivid reporting of events, it's conceivable that the text of an internal report was editted down to be presented as "hypothetical" (wink,wink).
Although management of large corporations apparently have no qualms about dissipating cash on frivilous or even ridiculous patents, one by IBM for adding a second fan to a computer enclosure comes to mind (duh), it's plausable that judicious use of limited resources in this case, would entail doing whatever possible to see if the compound was going to work before proceeding.
In any event, one gets a sense of high confidence level for success from the wording.
re:"Fair Market Value currently for AVXL? IMHO it's $5.67/share. That's what Wall St thinks ..."
If Wall Street was right all the time, there would be no such thing as undervalued or overvalued stocks. Obviously, that isn't the case.
There is a saying in business that "perception is reality". It isn't the same as "real" reality, but perceptions are the guiding force in human behavior. With stocks, "value" is, functionally, "perceived value". But, peoples' perceptions of things are highly mallable. So, the stock market is a kind of battleground in a constant state of psychological warfare, which is conducted by entities trying to influence sentiments their way, one way or the other, to achieve financial gain.
One can either trust someone else to do their thinking for them, in which case, you have, what may be characterized as "the herd", or the encircling wolves, to choose from, or, maybe try to become savvy, and figure out what metrics to apply for oneself, to determine when "the price is right".
The stock market is all about unreality. Maybe to become savvy one needs to develop skill at being an "unrealist". :)
re:"... telomere shortening"
Yes, that has been a sort of extremely elusive "holy grail" for those engaged in that area. However, reducing the need for cells to divide would tend to postpone the day when telomeres run out. Also. what is the next DNA "subroutine" after the telomere block. Does it result in defective proteins being produced? If so, error correcting downstream could help with that, although this second point is more of a conjecture...
Recall the test mice were engineered to have defective genes but still exhibited benefit from 2-73...
re:"...if 273 improves cell health and homeostasis it looks to me like this is the closest thing ever to an anti-aging drug"
I have had that same thought as well for a while now. But I decided not to say anything right away because some people get a little over-excited as it is. :)
re:"Sure wish a drug would come along that could help those suffering Insomnia... "
Although Anavex 2-73 cured insomnia 100% in patients with no adverse side effects, although it is perfectly safe, the FDA requires another long delay.
Fortunately a competitor, Merck's billion dollar effort has come to fruitation and they got FDA approval for their insomnia drug suvorexant. Big pharma to the rescue.
Suvorexant side effects:
"Belsomra (suvorexant) is a selective antagonist for orexin receptors OX1R and OX2R used to treat insomnia characterized by difficulties with sleep onset and/or sleep maintenance. Common side effects of Belsomra include headache, sleepiness, next day drowsiness, dizziness, abnormal dreams, diarrhea, dry mouth, cough, and upper respiratory tract infection. Belsomra may cause serious side effects that you may not know are happening to you, including "sleep-walking" or doing other activities when you are asleep like eating, talking, having sex, or driving a car. Call your doctor right away if you find out you have done any of these activities after taking Belsomra.
"
Well, I guess it's lucky for Merck that "adverse events" only would pertain to a patient dying, but not someone else, like, say, if they got run over by someone taking the drug. One would think it would be better placed on Schedule 1, which is supposed to be for "dangerous" drugs. But, hey, technically, they're asleep, so efficacy was demonstrated. :)
http://www.rxlist.com/belsomra-side-effects-drug-center.htm
Sometimes it seems like something is a little askew with our esteemed drug regulation system.
re:"PK/PD Data "
So it's simply a means of fine tuning dosage level and frequency. But we already know that Anavex 2-73, in convenient pill form, gets absorbed into body and has a beneficial effect.
The "latest" pk/pd data is of use to medical personnel administering and monitoring treatment, but is not relevant to making an investment decision. For those that would insist otherwise, it amounts to too much obsessing over minutiae. imo
Actually it's a 30 gram bag of their new Ultra-Lite Fluffy Cloud Kush.
Proprietary strain grown in a lighter-than-air Helium atmosphere. :)
re: New 23andME oral swab Alzheimer's test
“We have patients that do get Alzheimer's and don't have the genetic marker and we have other patients that don't get Alzheimer's and have that genetic marker,” says Dr. Kerwin, “so it's not a guarantee and people really need to understand that.”
Not a lot of certainty there. But, nevertheless, because Anavex 2-73 is proven to do no harm in healthy volunteers, one can imagine this development solidifying a potentially huge future prevention market, likely even bigger than the present confirmed market.
Big pharma has been credited with the invention of the $1000 pill. We haven't seen cost figures for 2-73 but going by the trials so far, the modest costs suggest that 2-73 can be produced at a price that people can afford.
With the right manufacturing and distribution partner, the cost theoretically can be made even more reasonable with economies of scale and still allow Anavex to make a good profit. All the while saving the health care system from going bust.
I started to research a little. It seems there was some legal wrangling a few years back wherein a warrant holder of some company asserted that he was entitled to a big payout because the wording had no explicit language saying the warrants would be adjusted. But the gist I get is that in general, common sense court opinion dictated that options and warrants get adjusted. The flip side being that a forward split would go against the holder...
Reading financials tires me out. Maybe I'll look into the warrant issue more later.
Suffice to say we have a binary gamble here. If the proxy measures get approved (probable), the company should be able to continue it's trajectory from negative to positive earnings per share in another qtr or two,and pps will go up (probably a lot). Also if Goldman Sachs prediction about oil going to $60-$70 by year end pans out. XCO is an increasingly lower cost producer now.
If the set of proposals fail, well, not so good...
re: "hepatocyte growth factor (HGF) mimetic (MM-201)"
"Hepatocyte growth factor has been shown to interact with the protein product of the c-Met oncogene, identified as the HGF receptor (HGFR). ... Both overexpression of the Met/HGFR receptor protein and autocrine activation of Met/HGFR by simultaneous expression of the hepatocyte growth factor ligand have been implicated in oncogenesis."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hepatocyte_growth_factor
( oncogenesis : development of a tumor or tumors.)
re:"...www.proxydocs.com/XCO"
"requested resource not available" -- ok. not out yet.
re: "they have till July 16th to get to a dollar or above to stay in compliance with NYSE."
I think that there is more to it than that, having to do with warrants. It sounds like a cash infusion from some warrants won't occur without the RS.
Does that mean while everything else adjusts, that the exercise price of the warrants stays the same? If so, that would be something I didn't know about warrants.
re: "...read the pre 14a, They are asking the shareholders to approve a RS"
Looks like anywhere from 1:10 to 1:20, depending what they decide when the time comes.
Skimming further, things gets pretty dire if it doesn't get passed. I would say that we need to vote for it.
Did you happen to notice when proxies are going out?
Yeah, either way, RS = probable SP chaos for a while.
Overnight oil (and gold) just went vertical around 10:30 pm, up about 1.5% for oil so far. Apparently, Trump just fired 50 cruise missiles into Syria.
Could be a good day for oil stocks tomorrow, although for Syria, probably not so much...
re: "...Goldman Sachs was recently fined and slapped on the wrist for loaning shares to short sellers and of course charging high interest, the problem was it was naked or counterfeit shares GS was able to create out of thin air by being 'a privileged holder of the rights' under the Madoff Naked Short rule."
It's not a unique situation historically. The foxes always seem to end up guarding the henhouse :)
Thanks for posting that great article.
What caught my attention was :
" ... the company basically just demonstrated that the targeting of sigma-1 with an asset called 3-71 can result in synaptogenesis, which is the forming of new connections (synapses) between neurons, without causing an abnormal increase in the number of astrocytes. "
Astrocytes play many important roles but, while not completely understood, are known to play a role in pain and can also form tumors when things go wrong. Directly stimulating new synapse formation (such as is being promulgated by a competitor) seems risky because it is like the old adage of putting a penny in the fusebox to get the lights back on instead of fixing the cause of the short circuit. The analogy being that it could lead to something worse, i.e. smoldering wiring, then fire.
Synapses will repair themselves and reform naturally with healthy cells.
Although the benefit for AD treatment became obvious, it wasn't clear initially to me how Anavex moa could help Biogen with their MS efforts, but here again, after reading up on it a bit, remylenization can commerce naturally, but everything else has to be right e.g. healthy cells.
Restoring healthy cell functioning is paramount.
The ubiquitous pharmacological paradigm seems to gravitate toward brute force, like, blow away all the amyloid.
Or, bypassing the cells normal control mechanisms. That's like treating a gunshot wound by injecting adrenaline. Sure it gets the person going again. For a while. Anavex gets the bullet out. That's what is needed first.
re: "I'm not having any issues buying on regular margin..."
Me neither As far as I've bothered to check, AVXL has had extra initial margin requirements all along, regular +45% = 95%, essentially unmarginable, at least at my broker. I tend to avoid dipping into margin anyway, since most of the stocks I like these days are unmarginable anyway. :)
re:"...Anavex Plus "
It "would have been nice" if donepizel had worked better (in combo patent with 2-73) because whoever is distributing it e.g. Aricept (Pfizer), could have become an ally of sorts, whereas now, the current SOC takes a minor sideline, or could pretty much be rendered obsolete. Not the best news for a donepizel-based medication maker.
Donepizel is primarily an acetylcholinesterase inhibitor. It's effect on receptors) was more-or-less accidental and is rather scatter-shot. It also picks up M2 and M3 which is undesirable and who knows what other receptors, which is why its side-effect profile isn't so hot and probably why it stops working after a while. imo
I believe M2 is part of the feedback mechanism to regulate/throttle-back acetylcholine production when it reaches a proper level, so after a while, agonizing M2 would ultimately render donepizel self-defeating. Also, since donepizel is in the bloodstream, areas outside the brain that didn't previously have an acetylcholine problem, for example, the heart, could be seen to suffer from having the regulation mechanism disrupted and thrown out of balance.
So, it might be just as well.
re; "...who is martha stewart"
Oh. Sorry. She got thrown in jail for acting on a $60k investment after her broker advised her to sell. The problem was that her advisor also said that was because so-and-so was going to sell and somehow the SEC, even though billions of dollars in market manipulation tactics go on seemingly unnoticed by them, they detected her indiscretion and decided to instigate a case against her for "insider trading" (which is illegal).
It always seemed to me to be almost comic if it wasn't also kind of tragic. The SEC has occasionally been criticized for failing to discourage or properly investigate evidence of market manipulation. Martha Stewart was a celebrity of sorts as a self-made success with her line of designer items, including house-wares and cooking stuff.
As an investor she was a small fish, but she represented an opportunity for "conspicuous enforcement". By making an example out of her, see, no one could say that the SEC wasn't on the job. Yes, now we are all safe from Martha Stewart. lol
The irony or dark humor aspect here is that, a big powerful investment giant, at one point, screwed up so bad, the SEC had no choice but to do something. I think that time it involved naked shorting abuse involving huge sums, orders of magnitude bigger. But all they got was a slap on the wrist.
Some strange things have gone on with Anavex stock but the trouble with certain government agencies is that they seem almost as likely to investigate the victim as the perpetrators.
It seems like Martha Stewart was just unlucky and (obviously) not some kind of mastermind menace.
So, my remark was meant to be a tongue-in-cheek somewhat humorous reminder to be careful not to admit that you might have heard some "insider" info. You never know what the SEC might do sometimes if the wind blows the wrong way and carries the scent of easy pickings.
re: "...he have 30 years exp in biotech and only handle client with over 1 million dollar investor account why were he do that with out any source? "
Sounds like your advisor must be pretty smart if he likes Anavex.
As long he wasn't also the past advisor to Martha Stewart, you should be ok. :)
re: "He also stated the grow period is now 8 weeks from start to finish"
I hadn't heard that. That would be, like, what, 6 crops a year.
Is that really possible. Pretty amazing.
My general understanding has been, going by past producers, more like 3 crops a year for cannabis, on average ...
3 crops is good, anything beyond that gives Supreme a cost advantage and would allow us to adjust our future valuation expectations upwards.
Sure you heard right? :)
Crude is bound to tick back up sooner or later. Just saw a news headline about sabotage being perpetrated on Nigerian oil infrastructure though didn't feel like I needed to read it. Various supply disruptions from time to time are going to continue to be par for the course. Doesn't seem to have made much of a splash though, since we are in a supply glut, forever and ever, aren't we...
Financial media is saturated with the "supply glut" mantra. Consensus views tend to be self-reinforcing, sometimes even after underlying conditions have changed.
So I found the following article rather interesting.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/contrarian-fund-managers-expect-oil-prices-to-double-to-100-by-2018-2017-03-21
re: legalization article
"...Most contentious issue will be around driving under the influence. McLellan expects this to be the single largest hurdle for legalization. A recent study suggests “Oral measurement of THC intoxication level is not feasible.”
Maybe they could have a video game test. Have the suspected driver play a video game to test his reflexes.
If he gets through all the advanced levels with a really high proficiency score, he's stoned.
Sorry, couldn't resist sharing a bit of humor. :)
re: email proxy
Mine came from my broker. Had a link to click on and I voted on-line. Very convenient.
Doesn't yours have a link? Seems like it should if one uses an on-line broker.
re: "Starting to sound like supreme might have lawsuit against Canada for changing rules after we already grew our product ... "
They might have a case. In the U.S. people are protected against "ex post facto" law. Presumably Canada has something similar?
Doubt it will come to that. Good to have a lawyer in the house though.
Nutrients only became an issue all of a sudden, probably, because some people don't like the LP model, and suddenly got the idea that raising a stink would be an opportunity to hinder the "competition". Is there a link between gray-market gravy money and hypocondria? Hard to say. :)
re: " I increased my position today on the dip. "
Me too. I trimmed some when it was up. Now back to a full slot again. However if it goes really low will add more.
No worries. :)
"... By using pharmaceutical grade ingredients, our system opens up your garden’s growth potential to the maximum degree" - Remo
http://www.remonutrients.com/about/
Actually neither one seems all that great. Will keep looking and try to update when I have time.
Crude oil is currently drooping and having an effect even though xco has a significant production of natural gas, which, by its nature, is sold domestically, insulated from the world price of oil. Still, the sector sells off when crude dips, today the overall market is down so that is putting double pressure.
Yeah, will need to wait for oil to start ticking up again, for one thing. At some point, bargain hunters should start coming around again.
It still is appealing as a bargain. It's not a risky start-up, they are an experienced business and have cash flow etc. If they return to even half of their former glory days, those of us who bought some around this level should do pretty well. Eventually...
imo
re: "Perhaps they needed Ariana to help them prove that... "
That makes sense actually.
re: "because the work is done. "
Right. It's not like they are another drug company or distributer, they provide data services to drug companies. Maybe Anavex will utilize them in the future or maybe not.
re: "...whether or not they were still working together"
My impression is that since it was described as a "collaboration" that Ariana, always looking for work, made a pitch to the effect, "Pharma companies use our data mining services so that patients can be identified for certain factors that can be cherry picked to improve the chances of showing enough efficacy in a huge expensive trial to overcome reservations about all the horrendous side effects and gain approval in spite of them. See, we might find that all left handed people who were born on a Tuesday showed better results. Why not let us take a look at your data and see what we come up with."
I wouldn't be surprised if it was some kind of consignment deal wherein, minimal, if any, money changed hands, but if they found something useful, then, they would get paid accordingly. So, what have they got to lose? Sort of like a free trial offer on an investment newsletter. "and you can cancel at any time...". Or so they say (newsletters anyway).
But they probably didn't find anything special that we didn't already know, such as, really old and frail patients in the mix had a harder time coping with the rigors of being tested constantly or what not.
So, if I was Anavex, I probably would have said, "OK, thanks but I don't think we will subscribe."
Anavex, being polite, isn't going to knock them, neither is Ariana going to say much. So, no big deal.
That appears to have been short covering when the 0.55 published target by a big(ish) house was hit. Unlike Magnum Hunter, exco is making good progress at adapting to market conditions.
Now that the shorting is over, some actual buying is likely to commence. They will likely be a survivor as a low cost producer which means a higher future valuation. imo
re: "Can anyone think of any other reason(s) why it has been on/off/on/off? "
Since it was an informal, general discussion, blatantly plugging one's own product, with tedious charts and graphs nonetheless... They might have finally decided it would have been too much. Even presumptuous or a bit unseemly, like one sometimes sees when an author keeps diverting a panel discussion on some general issue to promote his book. "And by the way, It only $19.95. and if you call today, get a set of amazing ginzu knifes, free..." :)
I imagine they discovered that other panelists weren't presenting in that manner, so the level of detail was toned down to be more consistent with the theme of that particular venue.
re: "...any suggestions? "
That's the problem isn't it.
There are things that help cope a bit like trying association with something that you know that you always do remember. For example if the person's name sounds like, or he maybe looks a little like some animal, visualize him as such. The more ridiculous the better. Of course then one needs to be careful not to accidently call him "Mr. Weasel" or whatnot before giving the old noggin time to jog. :)
Some people keep working as long as they can. I got pretty good in my career which, among others things, involved programming automation. It's pretty important to stay sharp. I could have kept going a few more years, but, in my case, after I started catching myself at little things, concern over further deterioration influenced my decision to retire a little early.
Some people maybe need to keep working, which can be hard, if they have to do so in spite of needing to start coping with new limitations. Some of that could be, as they say, simply a result of growing older.
In some cases, unfortunately, it may turn out to be creeping AD.
So there's another hidden cost of not getting an effective defense mounted against this thing. Lost productivity, or worse, the risk of expensive mistakes...
Considering the weird attacks Anavex has endured, besides my own DD, I think it's a sign that they really have something. It's been said that the best becomes the enemy of the good. Or in this case, the good (Anavex) becomes an enemy to the bad (SOC). Or perceived that way. There's certainly been some bad behavior on players who have made it hard to stick with the decision to invest in Anavex. Still, keeping that slot occupied in my portfolio, has felt better than simply donating the money to some non-profit "AD Research" outfit, where, a lot of money ends up not really doing any good. Lavish administrative salaries, for example.
I watch my share of gritty stuff, but also like lighter stuff for a change. 'Finding Dory" is great animation. The main character has memory problems. I liked the movie but it got me thinking how much everyone has given up. I get the sense that it would help prepare kids to deal with (presumed inevitable) decline in their older relatives. But I think that now there is hope that it is not so inevitable.
FWIW , Real maple syrup on pancakes and sausage, and a good cigar in the evening, seem to help a little. But that's just me. :)