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More hilarity from Marco:
More hilarity: "future looks bright" No, the future looks as blurry as ever because the 'granularity' was not given,
BUT he did at least admit to certain specific issues slowing things down such as:
*Oxygen (did I hear that right) on the 'back end'.
*Unspecified 'other things' they are more worried about than poling (which they say is not really an issue anymore)
*Need to understand failure mechanisms
*Continuing insistence on 'lifetime results'.
*Existing infrastructure hanging on as tightly as they can to not change.
*EOP support is non--existent in the 2 major Chips Acts. Dr Lebby's excitement at a paltry $10m in Chips Act funding in Korea shows how little attention the industry is giving it...Dr Lebby himself said that polymers have a 'bad rap' in the industry.. Combine that with the desire to extend the existing technology as far as possible and you see the reality of the situation: THIS IS A MAJOR UPHILL CLIMB EVEN IF ALL THE BUGS CAN GET WORKED OUT
The new slides and the commentary in the q&a tell the simple reality that things are pushed out at least a year beyond what investors had thought.
Reality
It isn't a shoutout to LWLG, and it isn't the same picture. More funny papers from Proto.
More hilarity:
Some longs don’t seem to care that timelines have been pushed back. And that’s fine.
Let’s just not pretend that it didn’t happen.
Reality
Hilarious:
Because those are off-topic posts, And I don’t want to risk getting restricted again
I can say the same about you.
Your username isn’t your real name. So what? If I shouldn’t care about yours why should you care about mine?
The fact remains, I never tried to misled anybody about who i am or about Lightwave Logic. And all that really matters is the latter.
My track record shows that those who interpret me as being manipulative and deceitful have been wrong all along.
My goal here always has been to figure out what is true and real and not let dreams cloud my judgment
It’s kind of like a giant chess game. They say Proto is a grandmaster… Ha ha.
Predictions I made on on Feb 9:
The next 3-4 months will be shocking imo.
I'm 90% confident that many of the following will happen, or should I say NOT happen:
1. Re Dec 4 letter - there will be no announcement of a tech transfer with a foundry, but may be some LOI that sounds good but has no clear timeline.
2. Early March the 10k comes out which shows at best the $50,000 in revenues from the one-off modulators using Perk agreement. That will confirm the very low demand after 9 months, which brings into question how straightforward the company was in claiming "commercial acceptance" last year.
3. OFC will come and go without any external validation that Lightwave's polymer reliability has been proven. Andy will not confirm it, and Lightwave will not make any definitive statement that satisfies the industry.
4. OFC will come and go without an announcement of a transceiver using Lightwave's modulator breakthrough. The transceiver company isn't ready to take that step. There may be some kind of half-prototype or "this is how it will work" display.
5. April will be a long month as the cumulative effect of #1-4 sinks in with shareholders and the best they hope for is a repeat of another agreement like last year. Investors will start to demand accountability with regard to Foundry work. Some long timers will become LIVID as the price drops into the 2s. Institutional selling will become a major threat..
6. April-May: shareholders may get an announcement from a small forward-looking photonics oriented foundry of some kind of partnership with Lightwave, but it will be very vague in details.
7. May: There may be confirmation that GFS is testing the perkamine/Ayar combination, but without any timeline for going into production. This may happen at ASM. ASM will be a repeat of last year -same projections for the year.
8. June: Investors will try hard to keep a happy face through all of the above, but the market likely will reflect the realization that last year shareholders were given a lump of coal instead of a gold nugget. They will start to ask what the people in the new space are doing.
9. August: Investors will anxiously await a transceiver prototype announcement that doesn't come. KCC will become "worried" but won't say so.
10. Dec 31, 2024. Investors will claim 7900 transceivers have been shipped out with Lightwave Perk since Dr Lebby said it would happen, but none of them will really believe it. The stock will hit a 52 week low despite the fact that Jim Marcelli resigned during the year.
The stock price is determined by the people who are buying or selling the stock at any given time .
Repeat: The stock price is determined by the people who are buying or selling the stock at any given time.
That means longs or shorts who are holding don't affect the price. This is what so many don't seem to understand. But Proto understands. Believe me. He gets that.
Many things go into the decision to buy or sell on any given day but the DIRECTION on any given day - is going to be determined whenever there is a CHANGE IN PESPECTIVE.
The 2024 ASM created a major change in perspective. Things were said that were never said before. Important things. And the slides were changed..
Tech investing IS all about potential but that includes the potential to make money soon. That's the market that now exists in the US of A.
What is your evidence for manipulation? I have not seen any.
The stock price went nuts on speculation and it has dropped on reality. This happens time and again.
You seem convinced that passive index funds are behind the manipulation - which makes zero sense to me - so where is your evidence for this manipulation? I don't want generic scary-sounding conspiracy-oriented articles about "dark pools" and such - I'm asking for some direct evidence affecting LWLG?
Do you realize the stock has one of the highest valuations of all pre-commercial companies in the entire market?
In light of that fact, why do you continue to tell everyone there is manipulation?
I really don't get your mindset. I'm willing to hop on board with you if you just can provide some kind of rational argument that is supported by evidence.
tia
interest seems to have dipped for the short term at least..today may be interesting
Hilarious: "I don't believe the Timeline has shifted at all,"
re 7900 units it would have been nice if that had been reiterated as expected or likely to happen this year.
The fact that it wasn't suggests to me they either aren't sure or the pendulum has swung from being overly optimistic to being conservative.
Re Marcelli and his blaming you for the share price...I"ve long wondered if Marcelli has indirectly been attempting to control the narrative on this board as a way to help LPC sell their shares. After all, the narrative here has been unyieldingly positive with all the cut and pastes.
You are right steve. The dichotomy on this board reflects the dichotomy at the company. There are good things going on at the company. But there have been some bad things going on too for a long time.
The price movement since the meeting reflects a new picture of timelines. It’s that simple. The sell off in grand fashion reflects the new reality that the company has decided to be more forthright about. We can only hope that the discussion here on the boatds can now trend in the same direction of honesty
Anyone can compare this ASM with what we’ve been previously told and see that there’s a vast change in tone regarding the timeline. Dr Lebby got more real this year and kudos to him for that: The projection for unit sales in 2024 was taken down. That says it all re timelines.
There is no question the engineers at lightwave are working hard and I’m not surprised that they are excited. Researchers get excited when any aspect of their research work is validated. and having wafers is a significant step forward. Kudos to the engineers. I’ve always thought these are honest, hard-working people.
Jeunkie and some others are trying to keep the hope going here by mitigating the impact of the new reality and that’s understandable. And there is reason to have some hope.
In my post summarizing the ASM and in this very post, I’m trying to portray an accurate picture. Longa have a rationale for staying in the stock if they’re willing to wait. How long? That’s the big question. Short term traders and investors who want something significantt to happen by say year end have a decent rationale for getting out also.
The big change is that in the past, some of the slides have been misleading. This year the slides seem much more honest about the timing. That’s the reality. One of them just had the word TIME which made me chucke but also which may honestly be as granular is they are able to be given all of the unknowns, and all the industry factors which they have no control of.
Hopefully we can return to more rational discussion now that the company has set a more rational tone.
The timeline picture was new news for many longs. He mentioned some issues - when asked about poling he said something like that's not the main thing they worry about - and then mentioned oxygen or something like that. And when asked about reliabiity he said lifetime results is an ongoing item and he brought up 'failure mechanisms' as something Tier1s want to make sure they have a good handle on and he said they have learned a lot more about. But the projections going forward also have become blurrier.
All of those things are 'big and new' for many.
That's the whole reason for the drop.
If you still believe you either hang on or get back in when the timeline looks to be closer or more definite.
Do you agree selling has occurred after the meeting? Either it was shorts piling on or longs selling or traders selling. Again - comments by longs have not been exactly upbeat - many have expressed disappointment. You are making the mistake of not observing what is going on around you, it appears to me.
IF you are saying selling began before the meeting that doesn't discount what I've written about the effect of the meeting. Several longs have even reported that they sold! Do you think they were lying? I wish you well but there was a message yesterday and while it didn't change MY perspective one bit it absolutely has changed the views of people that thought a deal could be announced yesterday or any day now...clearly he was 're-setting expectations' just like he said he would to expect far less in the near term -- I mean he didn't even put up unit sales for 2024! The absence of the 7800 number alone was a pivot in the prior messaging. And he said a LOT more than that. Just run the q&a part of the replay: https://viavid.webcasts.com/viewer/event.jsp?ei=1661614&tp_key=0e4b468303
There is more risk now. If someone on SA wanted to write a negative piece it could create a lot more havoc than what we are seeing in just the last couple days. The stock is vulnerable because the new information is not good - at least for another 6 months, I'd say. Sure they could still surprise us but it seems a lot less likely than before yesterday.
Stock prices reflect new beliefs. That's exactly what is going on now and I believe will continue for quite a few months ahead. And if the general market corrects at the same time it's likely to be a lot more painful than it already has been. You can call this FUD if you want, but to me this is just calling it how it is.
omg...People were watching the presentation online and even those at the meeting have smartphones. The price decline was during and after the meeting and it continues and will likely continue as the magnitude of what was said yesterday continues to displace the prior beliefs.
And when you read even the comments by longs that say they are staying - it is obvious there was a great deal of disappointment. Not just here but to my surprise it was strong over at the quiet place too.
Perhaps shorts increased but the price tells the story here: sentiment changed for the worse
looking forward to hearing more
yeah I just discovered this a few days ago. Ss IS awesome.
Ok thanks on the plasmonic info..just seemed he was mixing them up - but I guess that makes some sense because they both use the perk.
There was plenty more than your questions to explain the price..and God forbid that we try and get a better read on the true situation! As Steven said Dr Lebby kind of had to be more forthright about issues and timing esp after the Dec letter.
Funny about Tom. Kind of makes sense to me that people in the space world would want to believe in aliens - it adds to the wonder of it all.
moving up
Thanks - it could also explain Claudia's presence - kind of makes sense if they are demoing her modulator
GP do you think the polymer slot in the OFC and other demos and touted as capable of 200gps per lane is actually perkanimine on Polariton's plasmonic modulator?
I never thought that until a few months ago and then yesterday when he was using the ETH plasmonic world record speed results to imply that the 200gps could extend to 400gps and beyond. Why would he do that if the two technologies were very different?
The implications would be hugely negative if so, seems to me. Am I way off on this?
I disagree. We HAD many many hints of the reality previously when the stock was at a higher price then.
The problem is the shareholders didn't BELIEVE the reality it until Dr Lebby said it out loud. Then they had no choice.
But all the signs were there for people to figure out.
The market is NOT efficient for LWLG. Never has been.
The stock imo could go far lower as people continue to slowly see that this may not happen in even the next 3 years.
Let's just hope that exciting quote about polymers by an "industry leader" wasn't made by Dr Michael Lebby.
..
And now it is more vulnerable than before since overall message was "this is taking more time"..
It's one thing to have a story stock that most think is about to burst on the scene and quite another to have a story stock that suddenly became far less exciting for the time being
Yeah - look at what they just got - not what they didn't get: It still looks like a huge bargain - maybe we need some EPS numbers...
Stervc may find this one interesting and be willing to work up some projections. With this share structure this could still go up much higher but I know we'd like it to be sooner rather than later.
Right. It's a bit puzzling but $25m is great - as BB pointed out the MTAG Composites may come later as the PR said, perhaps certain aspects proved difficult to navigate at this time
The ASM speaks for itself. Here's a summary for those who missed it. Good luck everyone.
Highlights from the ASM:
First, the good news is that I think I didn't detect much SPIN this year - well not like before. One thing he said that activated my semi-BS meter was that AMF came to them to put out a press release. Given the timing, I suspect it was more of a mutual decision..AMF may well have felt like it would help their visibility, which might help them get further funding, customers, etc..., but surely Lightwave was hopeful of finally putting out a name of somebody. I said "think" because it almost sounds like their 200g results were with plasmonic modulators...which I don't think shareholders expect since that technology is several years off...not trying to mislead -- see later comments..a bit confused on this. If that's how it kind of sounds that might be considered a big spin..hopefully not.
The most welcome thing for me was that Dr Lebby came through on his Benzinga interview goal to 'set-shareholder expectations' to be more realistic. He definitely did that, and the market responded accordingly. Some refuse to believe it and point to manipulation as always, but apparently the market saw a reason from today's meeting to bet on a downward reaction, and the volume - a couple 100k shares and quite a few 10k and more - supports that, as one would only expect from the most important day of the year.
There are (for some) shocking changes and omissions from last year - most notable were the removal of SAM, SOM charts, and afaik no discussion of the 7900 transceivers to deliver in 2024. More on that later.
Specific highlights, in only semi-chronological order from my scribbles and my recollection.
It is possible I misinterpreted or wrote something down wrong, but this is to the best of my ability:
*confirmation that they need 200mm to get to scale...ie 150 wouldn't do it
*AMF is not the only Foundry they are working with, but numbers not given
*re reliability the industry is still very interested in lifetime results but 'what they really want to know' is if Lightwave understands the "failure mechanisms" - a new term for us. He said Lightwave's understanding of the failure mechanisms in the last 6-9 months has 'greatly increased'.
Some slides:
*Per my recollection, there was an early slide of the total market (TAM) but no slide projecting Lightwave's share of that market. They removed any unit sale projections, from what I saw. Someone please correct me if that is wrong.
*A very positive comment was made about polymers on one slide. When asked who made it he said 'an industry leader'.
*Several slides showing the industry needs for speed in 2025 and beyond, suggesting they can meet the need now or soon, and expect to meet the needs in 2026 and beyond. The very next slide shows ability to reach 400G lane - yet that is the ETH Zurich work with plasmonics .. which makes me wonder if their own modulators are used in the demos or not...why showcase plasmonics as the example of what the industry needs in the future if they are meeting current 200g without plasmonics? Is the "Commercial Partnering" slide (21) that has "Partnering for polymer slot modulators on 200mm wafers" (ie AMF) actually using Polariton's plasmonic modulators coated with Lightwave perkanimine? Is that why Claudia was there? Confused by this.
*Resurrected the ASM 2021 slide that put "Commercialism Polymer Plus" directly after 2019->2020->2021...but it doesn't say that now! Rather is shows demos and Foundry/packaging/transceiver out-sourcing in 2024 and "Commercial partnering (materials/devices)" and "Foundry/packaging/transceiver out-sourcing" in 2025.and "Reference designs for transceivers" in 2026. I'm sure this will generate some discussion.
*Product Roadmap slide (29) shows their materials to be "available" and New Materials, their PIC platform and Package platform to be "In qualification" leading to "available" with the bottom horizontal graph showing an arrow to the right and the simple label "TIME"! Is that vague enough for anyone? Made me chuckle. They are really trying to avoid giving hard timelines. "(re)set shareholder expectations".. Indeed.
*Near Term Commercial Activities & Goals (30) is a bit clearer - the graph leads to customers under which it says "Plan is to enable volume scale", but the box showing 2024-2025 says "Engagement with companies for both materials supply licensing as well as polymer modulator prototypes"..Do they not expect any Customers for their polymer modulators in 2025? That's how I read it..
Slides of Q&A:
*While he sees EOP has having the "performance headroom" beyond 4x200 the he said that "as of right now TFLN is a threat."
*They "can scale" materials at company and devices using Foundries.
*"focusing on license deals". I'm not sure what that really means at this point.
*they are not ready to give revenue guidance, but they do expect a fast adoption rate..hmm....
*Current modulator performance is suitable for live trials with hyperscaler datacom companies, but none are confirmed. Appears that will come in the future after they are satisfied with reliability data.
Q&A Period: (some info maybe out of order):
*When discussing 200 and 400 he mentions Polariton -- I found this confusing. It almost sounds as though the high speed results he says they can do now and will do in the future are with the Polariton technology - plasmonic modulators and not their own.. Surely not as that would imply a much further timeline? Will have to listen again.
*Dr Lebby said that the big Chips Acts aren't supportive of EOP, but he seemed excited to point out that A Chips Act in Korea set aside $10m for EOP. It's something but to me it only reinforces how early it is as that is a pretty small amount. Dr Lebby also said at one point that polymers have had a 'bad rap/rep' in the industry.
*Pointing out that scientists seem to keep raising the issue of poling, he reiterated that for Lightwave it is "not really" an issue for them. Then he said "there are other things we are more concerned about...we are worried about other issues", but at that point didn't elaborate, I think. Then in the Q&A he was asked if on the back end a hermetic seal (keep water out) is a problem and I think he responded by saying that the main issue is oxygen (did I hear right?).
*when asked about the Foundry process he said 1-2 months for masks/layout? and then 6-7 months for the wafers to be run. He said can be faster if you pay them more, and can be faster for smaller foundries,
*Kevin (KCC?) asked for a timeline on 4x200 and transceiver. Response: 'in progress'.
*Kevin asked about the variations from 1-3 volts - about producing wafers with 1v (consistently I think). Answer: We don't just have chips (?) - will see more stats in the next 6-9 months, more foundry capability - both are comfortable (ie foundry and Lightwave). He said early device performance is 'working well' under 2v.
*Will a transceiver partner be named in 2024 or before a 4x200 pic is complete? "It must make business sense".
*someone asked what do they do with all the wafers - lots of measurements which takes a lot of time, many stats recorded and work on fine tuning the performance
*someone asked what if being "dragged along" meant Lightwave was slowing things down...Good question that I forgot the answer to.
*someone asked why the goalposts keep getting moved back by a year or more. I recall the answer included the industry trying hard to 'eek out' the last efficiency possible with the existing methods..ie unwilling to change until they have to. Pretty long answer that requires another listen and I hope wasn't edited...
MORE:
*Claudia was there. I agree with KCC's assessment. She seems a joy to be around.
*The Grand Tour For Shareholders: X has very positive things to say in his review here: https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=174471436
Nothing surprising to me - I'm sure it is impressive as these guys are working on complicated stuff, and it's good for people to see that the science is real.
That's all I got.
LIghtwave almost certainly is paying AMF, as Lightwave is the customer. When asked about the Foundry process Dr Lebby mentioned if you want faster results you pay more. There is no reason to assume anything special here - I'm sure if it was a different arrangement more like a partnership he would have said so.
Highlights from the ASM:
First, the good news is that I think I didn't detect much SPIN this year - well not like before. One thing he said that activated my semi-BS meter was that AMF came to them to put out a press release. Given the timing, I suspect it was more of a mutual decision..AMF may well have felt like it would help their visibility, which might help them get further funding, customers, etc..., but surely Lightwave was hopeful of finally putting out a name of somebody. I said "think" because it almost sounds like their 200g results were with plasmonic modulators...which I don't think shareholders expect since that technology is several years off...not trying to mislead -- see later comments..a bit confused on this. If that's how it kind of sounds that might be considered a big spin..hopefully not.
The most welcome thing for me was that Dr Lebby came through on his Benzinga interview goal to 'set-shareholder expectations' to be more realistic. He definitely did that, and the market responded accordingly. Some refuse to believe it and point to manipulation as always, but apparently the market saw a reason from today's meeting to bet on a downward reaction, and the volume - a couple 100k shares and quite a few 10k and more - supports that, as one would only expect from the most important day of the year.
There are (for some) shocking changes and omissions from last year - most notable were the removal of SAM, SOM charts, and afaik no discussion of the 7900 transceivers to deliver in 2024. More on that later.
Specific highlights, in only semi-chronological order from my scribbles and my recollection.
It is possible I misinterpreted or wrote something down wrong, but this is to the best of my ability:
*confirmation that they need 200mm to get to scale...ie 150 wouldn't do it
*AMF is not the only Foundry they are working with, but numbers not given
*re reliability the industry is still very interested in lifetime results but 'what they really want to know' is if Lightwave understands the "failure mechanisms" - a new term for us. He said Lightwave's understanding of the failure mechanisms in the last 6-9 months has 'greatly increased'.
Some slides:
*Per my recollection, there was an early slide of the total market (TAM) but no slide projecting Lightwave's share of that market. They removed any unit sale projections, from what I saw. Someone please correct me if that is wrong.
*A very positive comment was made about polymers on one slide. When asked who made it he said 'an industry leader'.
*Several slides showing the industry needs for speed in 2025 and beyond, suggesting they can meet the need now or soon, and expect to meet the needs in 2026 and beyond. The very next slide shows ability to reach 400G lane - yet that is the ETH Zurich work with plasmonics .. which makes me wonder if their own modulators are used in the demos or not...why showcase plasmonics as the example of what the industry needs in the future if they are meeting current 200g without plasmonics? Is the "Commercial Partnering" slide (21) that has "Partnering for polymer slot modulators on 200mm wafers" (ie AMF) actually using Polariton's plasmonic modulators coated with Lightwave perkanimine? Is that why Claudia was there? Confused by this.
*Resurrected the ASM 2021 slide that put "Commercialism Polymer Plus" directly after 2019->2020->2021...but it doesn't say that now! Rather is shows demos and Foundry/packaging/transceiver out-sourcing in 2024 and "Commercial partnering (materials/devices)" and "Foundry/packaging/transceiver out-sourcing" in 2025.and "Reference designs for transceivers" in 2026. I'm sure this will generate some discussion.
*Product Roadmap slide (29) shows their materials to be "available" and New Materials, their PIC platform and Package platform to be "In qualification" leading to "available" with the bottom horizontal graph showing an arrow to the right and the simple label "TIME"! Is that vague enough for anyone? Made me chuckle. They are really trying to avoid giving hard timelines. "(re)set shareholder expectations".. Indeed.
*Near Term Commercial Activities & Goals (30) is a bit clearer - the graph leads to customers under which it says "Plan is to enable volume scale", but the box showing 2024-2025 says "Engagement with companies for both materials supply licensing as well as polymer modulator prototypes"..Do they not expect any Customers for their polymer modulators in 2025? That's how I read it..
Slides of Q&A:
*While he sees EOP has having the "performance headroom" beyond 4x200 the he said that "as of right now TFLN is a threat."
*They "can scale" materials at company and devices using Foundries.
*"focusing on license deals". I'm not sure what that really means at this point.
*they are not ready to give revenue guidance, but they do expect a fast adoption rate..hmm....
*Current modulator performance is suitable for live trials with hyperscaler datacom companies, but none are confirmed. Appears that will come in the future after they are satisfied with reliability data.
Q&A Period: (some info maybe out of order):
*When discussing 200 and 400 he mentions Polariton -- I found this confusing. It almost sounds as though the high speed results he says they can do now and will do in the future are with the Polariton technology - plasmonic modulators and not their own.. Surely not as that would imply a much further timeline? Will have to listen again.
*Dr Lebby said that the big Chips Acts aren't supportive of EOP, but he seemed excited to point out that A Chips Act in Korea set aside $10m for EOP. It's something but to me it only reinforces how early it is as that is a pretty small amount. Dr Lebby also said at one point that polymers have had a 'bad rap/rep' in the industry.
*Pointing out that scientists seem to keep raising the issue of poling, he reiterated that for Lightwave it is "not really" an issue for them. Then he said "there are other things we are more concerned about...we are worried about other issues", but at that point didn't elaborate, I think. Then in the Q&A he was asked if on the back end a hermetic seal (keep water out) is a problem and I think he responded by saying that the main issue is oxygen (did I hear right?).
*when asked about the Foundry process he said 1-2 months for masks/layout? and then 6-7 months for the wafers to be run. He said can be faster if you pay them more, and can be faster for smaller foundries,
*Kevin (KCC?) asked for a timeline on 4x200 and transceiver. Response: 'in progress'.
*Kevin asked about the variations from 1-3 volts - about producing wafers with 1v (consistently I think). Answer: We don't just have chips (?) - will see more stats in the next 6-9 months, more foundry capability - both are comfortable (ie foundry and Lightwave). He said early device performance is 'working well' under 2v.
*Will a transceiver partner be named in 2024 or before a 4x200 pic is complete? "It must make business sense".
*someone asked what do they do with all the wafers - lots of measurements which takes a lot of time, many stats recorded and work on fine tuning the performance
*someone asked what if being "dragged along" meant Lightwave was slowing things down...Good question that I forgot the answer to.
*someone asked why the goalposts keep getting moved back by a year or more. I recall the answer included the industry trying hard to 'eek out' the last efficiency possible with the existing methods..ie unwilling to change until they have to. Pretty long answer that requires another listen and I hope wasn't edited...
MORE:
*Claudia was there. I agree with KCC's assessment. She seems a joy to be around.
*The Grand Tour For Shareholders: X has very positive things to say in his review here: https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=174471436
Nothing surprising to me - I'm sure it is impressive as these guys are working on complicated stuff, and it's good for people to see that the science is real.
That's all I got.
..
From a short term standpoint, the info today is so disappointing that it’s going to be hard to find a bottom anytime soon imo.
Longer-term it’s all still up in the air too much unless you’re someone who’s willing to wait potentially multiple years longer before the stock really moves.
At least that’s how it looks to me, especially after today
Supply is greater than demand because people were disappointed. It will take several days (or weeks) for the magnitude of what was said to sink in to the market and I expect more lows, Into the low threes soon and then it will test the twos. Hope for a strong overall market perhaps to soften the blow.
no 7900 transceivers, TAM, SOM, or revenue guidance -- the entire tone was 'we are working on the hurdles, but we still think we are the best and no we don't really want to give you any clear guidance but know that the industry doesn't want to change and are trying to extend change but knows it has to over time so they are starting to pay attention to us'
It will be hard for some to listen to the re-broadcast (hopefully they won't edit out some of the answers like the one he gave re goalposts getting pushed back for commercialization).
I could hammer the hell out of this but I don't really care that much -- this imo is going down..so hopefully the smart ones will cut some losses before it goes down too much.
Lots of honesty today. Very nice to see -- that's what I've been pounding the table for since mid 2022..
Plenty more to say but will hold off for the moment. Some good questions today too. Kevin (KCC I assume) asked some good ones and will let him say but it sounded to me that mostly he didn't get what he was hoping to get.
Some major adjustments to expectations probably happening as we speak.
Annualized their revs would be some $600k - just pointing out that unlike in prior years they had revs and they weren't insignificant.
I know we are all looking forward to this merger which would be much more significant though.
red, the stock moves according to the sentiment of the market - and even if some longs have a kung fu grip on their shares, others will sell just as we've seen with every disappointment since I came here in June of 2022. And I assume retail shorters will trade this down on bad news too.
Any significant report against the company at this stage could be devastating too as there is plenty of fodder now.
The market has been very disappointed with the progress and now are starting to doubt Dr Lebby himself after seeing him not come through on his timelines.
The stock is also trading at 9x it's historical average so it MUST be close to commercialization to justify its lofty market cap.
That's why it is EXTREMELY vulnerable - especially today and the coming weeks and months depending on what is revealed today.
There is nothing special about the $4 price. Or $3. But there is a $300m mcap threshold which some index funds will sell at if it is breached so that is a special valuation level that could become very ugly for the price as high volume sells hit.
Hope for the best today but be aware that this is highly vulnerable to dropping much further. Perhaps this is FUD - but that's what this company has brought on itself when it hypes the way it does and then fails to deliver.
Not current yet - going current. Here's the link to the record revenues: https://www.otcmarkets.com/otcapi/company/financial-report/403262/content