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yes and the class action suit supports that claim...
https://www.classaction.org/media/williams-v-tesla-inc.pdf
Note that China recalled 40k cars for the same problem, so what are the chances the NHSTA let this slide? Some serious safety concerns that impact the general public.
A $650 bil company that just raised $10 bil... do you think the NHSTA wants to be front page on why they let this slide? I don't think so.
What's the estimated cost for 200k to 250k cars?
Some heavy weight lawyers behind this crusade..
https://mccunewright.com/practice-areas/class-actions/tesla-model-s-and-model-x-suspension-defects/
some good free advertising in Washington Post
https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2020/12/28/tesla-battery-fire/
everything is out of whack... margins, P/S... either the other top ten rise to Tesla or Tesla falls to the top ten... what do you think is going to happen?
and look at comparisons to auto manuf..... even crazier
https://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=121&f=cap_largeover,ind_automanufacturers&o=-marketcap
as to the story Tesla is more than...
auto insurance...not very profitable and if concentrated w/ tesla, even less profitable...
software... competitors will have as well... marginal cost to produce is low which means first to mark down in pushing sales which will happen when competition heats up which is 2021...
Now that Tesla is swimming in the big boy pool, it's not only sales but profits. In the big boy pool, one gets rewarded for results, not rainbows.
Any particular company stick out with respect to valuation metrics in the S&P top ten?
https://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=121&f=cap_largeover,idx_sp500&o=-marketcap
Tesla keeps losing market share in EU...
https://ev-sales.blogspot.com/
VW gaining traction...
Looks like decent reaction to the CDMO offering.
I was expecting a larger offering. Perhaps we have a mgmt team that is aware of dilution issues. If I can recall one of the first things they did was remove the 500 mil share printing press the old penny stock team had set up.
As a side note I just looked up Mosaic ImmunoEngineering Inc. (PTSCD)... the old Patriot stock merged with SK and crew and the new biotech...
Down 60% yesterday... fitting symbol PTSD with a C added.... maybe for Carlton?
yes but they're usually not "overvalued" by a factor of 3 to 10 times... once in the S&P and if the value was too big for the bridges and morphs to a comparative market value, the S&P holders will gradually be disposing shares each quarter to reflect relative market cap to index percentage.... this could be the gift that keeps giving...
agree... my guess is the institutional short money slams this once the s&p buying is done... if there is a move it will happen quickly imo.... all the buyers coming in after the S&P announcement (north of $400) will be playing a game of chicken with each other as to who gets to keep profits... all a guess imo...
I wonder if Tesla will take out all the trash as in potential bad news as in any recall stuff or anything else that has material impact on value before one has a $600 bil value with respect to S&P widows and orphans buying at these levels.... if it came out that Tesla was sitting on this news, my guess is the fund managers would have no choice but to go after mgmt and with plenty of meat on the bone, why would mgmt risk it?... we shall see what unfolds before Dec 18...
if he mentioned it before ready, the price could have tanked and hurt his own mission... and he needed reaction as to qtr results to get the price bump...
my guess is they meaning WS as a generic squid unit has algo's tied into news feeds, texts, fb all set up to create order flow and skim it... they are brilliant at creating a risk free vampire machine... i can see where vampire squid is such a great moniker...
have no clue... what if announced with long term contract... could go up... could go down.... many factors... these things move pretty quick (within days or week imo) so as to limit volatility...
agree.... only worse now with WS taking advantage of robinhood traders... i thought WS was crooked in the dot com days... worse in the housing crisis... (a man made ws created crisis based on greed) ... and even worse today with HF trading and even less oversight today.... sad and lots of young traders will get wiped out... if one has profit now in Tesla I would run to the hills and wait for the battle of bubble or no bubble is over... that will happen when metrics fall in line with peer group which will require the peer group as in market cap to rise tenfold or the subject to fall possibly ten fold or somewhere in between... how many robinhoods does it take to maintain this bubble? and india is now getting into the fray... wait until the sell signal goes off.... once folks realize the interim positive price pressure as in forced buying with what is believed to be a price insensitive buyer as in "forced" to buy, the market will adjust to a different set of factors..
They prob already have buyers lined up... having good analysts with decent ib's that cater to institutions is key... new cfo is good.... having legit bod is good... the old crew basically went to flea markets...
Again no typos etc... again this is just notice they are working on supplement to previous one.... if I was guessing....$40 mil to get rid of preferred and whatever they want to get towards expansion not knowing what they will spend of current cash... anywhere from $70 to $100 mil.... don't know balance of orig $125 mil has been placed .... easy to look up... too busy... also $600 mil market cap... how much do they want to dilute.... from that angle maybe $60 mil ...
watch what preferred does relative to call price...
It won't until they figure it out.... this is basically a notice that one is in the works... basically a material event involving capital structure is about to happen.... takes away the leaks problem... brokers are prob getting feedback on demand so they can size it... i view this as great news... might be dip but the last one was brutal because of price and dilution.... selling ip.. new mgmt... basically changing direction of company so very high risk financing and thus imputed in the price as in preferred rate....
Preferred needs to go...10.5% in zero interest rate environment... major drag on value with 30 plus multiples on companies growing and making cash... smart move and we should have much better pricing with number of instits holding or wanting in once the expansion financing question answered.... the first offering was bend over cause this ship is broken financing.... we should get good deal for a good ship pricing...
Yes... it's an update from first prospectus from new regime... they did not sell all $125 mil that time .... the next one will be a supplement to that one... not to worry...
I forgot to mention one can download the model and create your own value with drop down menus based on various scenarios.... might want to have a few beers before one delves into it because the price now is about twice the totally crazy no way scenario..
good you tube vid on Tesla value... Prof at NYU Stern Biz school... on CNBC all the time... very worthwhile debate on how one could value Tesla... very impressed with analysis..
Any body notice the sequence of events...
GS analyst increase price target... (even Cramer appears embarrassed for tool analyst)
Stock goosed up ...
GS lead underwriter $5 B new stock
GS works for their clients... you ain't one of them...
Same with Robinhood... free stocks? ... nothing is free... they sell the info to the machine traders that jump the bids... one major parasite sucking your hard earned margin credit money... deja vu tech bubble games...
screw the little guy
and a 68% drop in Sweden ... 87 units in Nov vs 273 avg for prior 10 months
https://ev-sales.blogspot.com/2020/12/sweden-november-2020.html
From the article...
"Looking at last month Best Sellers, in November the VW ID.3 was a party crasher, it hasn't won the Best Seller trophy, losing to the Volvo XC60 PHEV by just 18 units, but its record 773 units were enough to spoil another 1-2 win for Volvo, as the new German model outsold the Volvo S/V60 PHEV siblings by 59 units."
VW id3 kicking butt again...
yes... the virus follows gov orders.... let's see how that works out. Remember my second belief.
suggest one edit...
We are "supposed" to be higher creatures. After the last four years I have my doubts.
I believe in three things...
Bubbles pop
You can't fix stupid
and Darwinism....
and wall st analysts have been raising their targets to help clients with the unload...
do you think wall st makes money from robinhood investors selling fractional shares or from helping institutional clients unload...
or hedge funds that do billions of $$$ in trading with wall st...
and they have their own trading desks that make money on trades as well...
this should be interesting..
shorted at $585 avg... expect 50% return... and it will still be overvalued...
as far as comparison to shorts losing more money than airlines, the shorts can recover in a few days once sentiment changes... airlines might take years to recover... same with those that bought tesla north of $400... quite possible they never recover... watch how bubbles pop...
two big markets... europe and china... competition from the home boys heating up and terrible PR for tesla ...
musk says to employees that if they miss any target the share price gets pounded like a sledge hammer on a souffle
some good light reading...
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4391923-teslas-achilles-heel
https://electrek.co/2020/11/27/tesla-under-nhtsa-scrutiny-over-model-s-x-suspension-disputing-recall/
https://auto.hindustantimes.com/auto/news/chinese-court-asks-tesla-to-compensate-model-s-buyer-for-hiding-damage-on-car-41607166078753.html
competition heating up... maybe word getting out tesla is a warm weather friend...
https://insideevs.com/news/458440/norway-plugin-car-sales-november-2020-id3/
https://insideevs.com/news/458474/opel-mokka-e-sold-out-already/
https://insideevs.com/news/458229/tesla-skipped-testing-lfp-model-3-china/
That should add another $10 bil market cap.... drop anchor another $5 bil and unload another $5 bil.
yes.... merge the metrics...
daimler P/S .4 Forward P/E 10.85
Tesla P/S 21.6 Forward P/E 144
the market will do so for any merger...
Musk is trapped and he knows it... needs an infrastructure fast to sell to masses... and cheapest/quickest way is merge... and any partner will not use current price as currency... how many insiders want to sell asap at this valuation?
any more upgrades from wall st so they can unload to uneducated public?
some light reading...
https://insideevs.com/news/458229/tesla-skipped-testing-lfp-model-3-china/
One last thing... again my motivation is not to shake shares loose... i knew several folks (including a nephew) that took their own lives when they lost everything when the last bubble popped... and i knew a whole bunch more folks that ended up homeless while the investment banks were funding hedge funds to buy houses for pennies on the dollar... Another VP squid alum had a big part in the housing crisis.. imo
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steven_Mnuchin
Thank you GS . Vamp Squid (VS) comes thru... made the short setup even better... my guess billions lined up to pounce as soon as they see the timing is right.
I don't need you to sell, the market will take care of itself... but things to think about if you want to protect your capital... the cheapest way is doing your own homework.... get opposing opinions...
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/the-great-american-bubble-machine-195229/
Was it the VS trading desk or a clients desk that needed the bump? The famous article is where squid name comes from and it has stuck. Notice the timing of the article ...2010 and it states another one is coming... history repeats itself... including bubbles will pop... as for response, I don't care about shaking shares loose... that will happen... and yes the shorts have lost to date. But when Chanos is only reducing his bet (funds as limits as to percentage amounts). Chanos is a famous short (enron, wire card etc). And he still has his Telsa short from five years... I don't know his level but if he was short 5 years ago, what does that tell you and what does the short pic look like today? (look at the chart)... Same with Einhorn.. maintains short (i think but google it) These guys have lots of analysts with tons of experience... Burry understand the economics...
Question: auto sales run in cycles and when the cycle slows (they slow) they throw everything at you .... $5,000 cash back, zero interest yaddy ya..
I saw another valuation (not GS) where $6,500 was used for the software component... given google building platform for several auto companies, what do you think gets reduced to move cars sitting on the lot when the marginal cost of software is basically free other than the cost of upgrades... and that $6500 put Tesla at $240 per share..(recent article in Forbes... google it)... and the software profit is a big part of the value proposition..
And to justify the PT to $780 by increasing market share in 2030 and 2035... I can't tell you what will happen next week let alone 2030 ..... might be the all time squid move... even Cramer (former squid as in GS, still a squid post GS imo) said something to the effect of torture meaning being a forced shrill ... all imo...
If you pinned your hope on a vampire squid price target upgrade, do some more homework and be ready to leave the theatre will someone yells fire... and there are a lot of folks that want to burn the theatre down because they have an economic interest to do so and it is perfectly legal to do and that could happen after the close, or before the open (usually both) when it happens...and they have tanker trucks of gasoline as in institutional capital... how many robinhoods are ready with those fractional shares... Gulliver comes to mind... Keep in mind the general belief on shorting is that is healthy for markets... like forest fires for forests..
And I bet dollars to donuts some tentacles of vampire squid are ready to burn the theatre down as well (unless they are in bed w/ Tesla for another equity raise). Most likely several tentacles in this game. And they make money going up and down....
If you can't afford to lose the money you have in Tesla, do some rigorous research away from the "to the roof" club and if it confirms your conviction, great.
If not, get what you can't afford to lose out of your position. If you still love Tesla, buy back in at a significant discount and get more shares. I don't see a rush to buy $780 shares. I think these moves happen before Christmas so you might have time to do your homework. And the move could be severe... look at the annual chart... Tesla will still be a great company at $75 a share and at $750 a share.
Good luck
here's a ranking that matters more than a GS analyst and will impact profit margins where it matters...
https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/25/21302804/tesla-ranks-last-on-influential-jd-power-quality-survey
good luck
GS als known as Vampire Squid is not your friend.... and never will be...
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Goldman-Sachs-Made-100-Million-Off-Tesla-Trades-This-Year.html
The analyst bumped up market share in yrs 2030 and 2035 on the dcf model to justify increased PT and stated if Tesla can maintain 20% market share...
Look at how many call options that are underwater at $600...
GS, the same firm that was shorting its MBS products while they were selling to institutions...
good luck
I have no idea... the one share trades could be a consolidation of fractional shares... .... and remember one thing... wall st is not your friend... all those analysts get paid to screw the little guy for their clients ... i thought it would change after last crash but guess not..
best of luck to all
Good luck and on to other plays. I sold high just waiting to buy low... I missed the peak by a day. How low will depend on qtr call... my guess given competition and weaker economy is that this thing goes lower than $400... I don't see major catalyst that will move it up $150 bil like the s&p date rape scenario. And once it's in the S&P it's a performance based company, not a hopes a dreams company. If the hopes and dreams are realized and translated into cash flow, they impute to the share price. I see the EV space getting very competitive which means margins get squeezed. But there seems to be an army of folks buying one share at a time if one watches order flow.... how many will get wiped out on margin and re enter the battlefield remains to be seen...
If I'm right, Tesla will pay for a new VW id4... actually Tesla shareholders...
happy holidays to all
I think they are a prime takeover candidate at a good premium... a friendly takeover deal would suit me just fine.... what a change from the old crew...
charlie brown finally kicks an extra point !!!!! go team go