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Only about 5 minutes left before market close, so that may be a tall order.
Wow, huge action today. I have to kick myself because I was a click away from adding 40k more yesterday on the dip but decided against it. Doesn’t make me any less happy to see .07 though!!
That is the million dollar question... when will this turn around? Hard to say, but with prices this cheap I couldn’t resist adding. Hopefully the worst is out of the way with Q1 and Q2 being in the books.
I added a decent amount of shares today. Hard to say confidently this is the bottom, but I am not sure how much lower this can really go.
I have been focusing on other companies lately but still a believer here despite my inactivity on this board. Good luck to all, and thank you to all the regular contributors!
My thoughts exactly. The news has been very promising lately, it just doesn’t seem to be reaching enough investors yet; the volume today was disappointing.
Once that critical mass is reached it’ll catch up quickly... still patiently looking forward to that day.
Seriously. I loaded up on 9/18 17.50 calls between 0.20 and 0.25 a contract just a week and a half ago. Already up massively and hoping the best is yet to come.
Sounds like the ticker conversion is likely to be Monday based on an interview with Forbes that Dylan Lissette did this morning. Also someone on ST posted a supposed email from Dylan to Utz employees that said they will be ringing the NYSE bell on Monday. Hopefully all that is true and this can blast off next week.
“Show me the money” is my attitude at this point as well. I feel they have been a little fluffy with the PR’s these last few months.
I also wonder how much churn there is left in terms of the inventory that was impaired in Q1. That has been absolutely killing margins and they haven’t been selling much compared to their average inventory balance so they may still be working through that.
I haven’t done an updated diluted market cap calculation lately, but last I checked I recall they were approaching book value if they aren’t there already. That is even more surprising when you factor in the lack of intangible assets / goodwill that often inflate a company’s book value.
I will likely be adding some soon, but I may wait and see just given the fact that the broader markets seem susceptible to a pullback given we are at all time highs despite delayed stimulus, continued COVID-19, and other economic concerns such as unemployment.
I’ve been in this one as well. I am optimistic the market will price in a much higher valuation once this combination is final and the ticker symbol is converted to UTZ (could be as early as Friday).
Utz is a very interesting investment opportunity. On one side of the coin, you have an established 99 year old brand that is iconic on the east coast and in the flagship markets it serves. On the flipside, you have a company that is very regionalized currently and has tons of untapped market potential to support continued growth (which they have a proven track record of doing).
After the volatility dies out post-merger, I would expect this to be a rock solid long-term option to park cash given the dividends and decades of growth even through recessions. For that reason, I would think institutions would love this stock. Warrant Buffett had also been quoted years ago saying he had inquired about buying Utz in the past. A large investment by Berkshire would be momentous for this stock if it were to happen.
Hoping for good things out of this one in the coming weeks.
Perhaps “spin” was not the right choice of words as I didn’t intend to suggest they should be deceptive in any way shape or form. Apologies for any confusion.
My point was meant to be that they need to remind investors of the potential that lies ahead and how we’ll get there. Hopefully that includes some positive updates about how Q3 has been going thus far. Because unfortunately I expect the Q2 numbers may not be pretty. I hope I will be surprised on that though.
My expectations are fairly low for Q2 numbers. However, a share price near ATL’s may mean that’s priced in though; that’s always the tricky part to gauge.
Regardless, I think the Q3 outlook and beyond will be the key to some share price appreciation. Hopefully they can spin some positivity about their path forward to revenue recovery, because sentiment on this stock was bad even when numbers were good.
Got out a little while ago before earnings for more profitable ventures. Still like this company a lot but the ER confirmed my fears that poor margins would overshadow revenue growth. I think they have been pivoting in a smart direction, but we are seeing the growing pains of doing so. This next quarter should be interesting. I will be watching this one though; I would like to reenter at some point.
Thanks for the share. Intriguing news!
Is it really that good? I’m not sure it’s even that PR worthy. $350k times 3 is $1.05m for a full quarter. They’ll need to do a lot better than that to replace the lost revenue from their previous contracts that have caused this downward slide. Obviously this is just a start, but it shows the amount of work that still needs to be done.
The waters are a little murky; I have a bad feeling Q2 will be more of the same from Q1. After that hopefully we are back on track. Good luck to all!
I think the near term will be murky waters. Q1 earnings were released in June (mostly through Q2) and not a single positive thing was mentioned on the call about Q2, they kept mentioning second half of 2020. I still think these guys will be fine in the long term, but I am pretty bearish on Q2 for this company. I hope I am wrong.
I still like the long-term, but I am pretty disappointed with just how bad of a quarter this was. To add insult to injury they made multiple optimistic references to the 2nd half of 2020, yet I didn’t hear hardly a single good word said about Q2. Unfortunately I suspect that could mean more of the same when we hear 6/30/20 results.
They mentioned they went from 6 contracts in Q4 to 3 in Q1 and expect about the same for Q2. That is not good because we already know the spot market for bulk resin / extract has not been pretty lately.
Also doesn’t sound like EU GMP certification for the Barre plant is imminent. They mentioned they were trying to have a virtual inspection done but it sounds like there have been delays.
Hopefully the international business expansion will help but I’m not sure how much that will come to our aid in Q2. So hopefully we get some more good news that can reverse its direction and get some positive sentiment building again. Until then, the game of patience continues.
They don’t meet the minimum bid requirement for NASDAQ listing anymore, so that process is on hold. In fact, I believe they were asked about this on the last ER call (or perhaps the one before) and said as much.
The stock market is a popularity contest, and outside of the bad quarter (expected) the news has been very positive for Neptune lately as opposed to negative for most of the sector.
Neptune has 1.5m kg extraction in North Carolina and 0.2m in Canada. They are leveraging their extraction capacity in the U.S. for household products (forthcoming) and sanitizers (already shipping 1m units a week). In Canada, they’ve really just begun on the cannabis side due to operational delays (my biggest gripe with them).
I don’t want to continue to derail this board into a Neptune conversation, but I think they will be successful for very different reasons than MediPharm, and that is why I own both.
I guess the point I’m trying to make is the price disparity in my opinion is less about Neptune being overvalued, and more about MediPharm being undervalued.
Neptune:
1. Is traded on the NASDAQ, giving it much higher visibility.
2. Has had very positive news lately with their shipping of “1m units a week” in sanitizers plus the $16.5m 6-month contract win. Phase II capacity also came online after their last quarter-end.
3. They are guiding for a substantial increase in revenue for next quarter as a result of #2, and there is reason to believe that can continue with their new product lines launching later in the year (such as their collaboration with Dr. Jane Goodall and their cannabis line once they receive their sales license).
If I were price-setting, I would value MediPharm much higher right now. But how many people know of either stock, let alone both? I’m not sure it’s a fruitful comparison, especially when the market strategies are vastly different. Neptune is a good company, although I do like MediPharm better at this stage.
Thanks for the share. I listened to the call recording earlier. The Q4 results are not great (which was expected) but the color they added about the non-cash warrant expense is important — they mentioned they may break that out from SG&A going forward.
The future looks bright, because they are doing something different than what a company like MediPharm is doing. This is more of a diversified hemp / cannabis play with their various product categories. I am a big believer in Cammarata and this call solidified that further. He has a great vision for this company and I was particularly intrigued by him expecting their sales license “any day” and some of the IP and technology he expanded on during this call.
I’m unsure if the market will react to the poor numbers or if the headline / reaction will be on the future (where it should be imo — anyone paying attention should’ve known this quarter would be tough). Regardless, I liked what I heard.
The company’s primary business is with Virtual Lottery Terminals (VLT) gaming machines in Europe (primarily in the UK). Depending on where you live, you may have seen machines like this or something similar. If not, I would suggest doing some research on them. They have been expanding that business in Europe and more recently in the U.S. through state lotteries. So that is a major reason why the stock is down so low. Their retail partners (a large portion being UK pubs) are not open and these machines aren’t running and haven’t been for months.
On the online side, they have deals with Flutter (58% owner of FanDuel), DraftKings, Caesars, Betway, bet365, Genting, and many others. These are typically revenue share deals. On the latest conference call, they stated that the revenue share of NGR was in the double digits for the DraftKings deal. They also said they have a huge pipeline of operators looking to integrate. So their online platform is really just beginning to scratch the surface in terms of exposure to mainstream users. For instance, DraftKings has not even launched Inspired’s products yet, and when they do it will start only in New Jersey I believe. So there is room for growth as more operators carry their platform, but also as these operators expand into additional jurisdictions (e.g. more U.S. states legalizing online bets).
To answer your direct question, I sincerely doubt they would move anywhere outside of the interactive gaming / wagering space. But the online virtual sports betting that people are recently hyping is a small part of the revenue the company earns today. However, it has a lot of growth potential because of the developing partnerships and pipeline of new operators getting involved with them.
I made a lot of money on DraftKings but i have sold and walked away as it is just a hype stock right now. They said in their prospectus for the reverse merger that they made $80m in the first 18 months in New Jersey. Now keep in mind New Jersey is by far the savviest sports betting state outside of Nevada with Las Vegas. Even with becoming the biggest online provider in what is likely the second biggest U.S. sports betting market they only made $80m over a year and a half. I have no doubt that DK will be a success in the long term, but they are years away from their earnings catching up to their valuation and there is tons of competition in the market including well-established casino empires that are competing for online share. The DK share price may continue to go up, but you won’t find me chasing it.
Inspired on the other hand is a stock I love. Even if everything else with the company stayed status quo, the share price will start rising significantly on the basis of UK pubs reopening (currently expected in early July). But by the time that core business is up and running again, they will also have a larger and stronger online business than they’ve ever had before. I suspect once DK actually launches Inspired’s games in NJ that they will PR it (DK has not made any mention yet), and that alone will probably drive the share price of INSE back up. There is a lot to love about this company right now, especially when you are buying in near all time lows.
I expected the share price to drop back around .04 to .05 today. It has held some gains nicely and with over 400k volume no less. After seeing that, my confidence is going up that we may see a new higher floor. Time will tell.
Exciting news! Thanks for those that have shared.
Probably not too late. Unless I missed it, not sure there is even news today. Seems to be a continuation of the various hugely positive updates lately.
I am still holding from a long time ago with an average in the $4’s. Always knew this would bounce back.
The sense I get is you are here for the long haul. If so, you have to love what the company has been doing lately. They are expanding internationally and finding a release valve for the nonsense that is the Canadian cannabis market, and that has been progressing while we are in lockdown. The reciprocity they have in many jurisdictions in Europe with the TGA GMP approval in Australia is huge. The negative news has been external (saturated bulk extract market, slow regulatory rollout, COVID-19) and not internal. So there is plenty of reason to still trust the decision makers here imo.
Beyond that, the COVID-19 situation is temporary. Yes, there will be economic repercussions of the shutdown, but there will not be permanent damage to the market and certainly not this industry (although individual players will fall by the wayside left and right after this).
The long term growth thesis for cannabis has never changed. It will take time, but it will be well worth the wait for the companies built competitively in this market (of which there are few currently). I also believe that cannabis derivatives specifically have some of the largest growth potential, because they will attract both regular users and casual users alike.
Furthermore, it’s not as simple as a company coming in and throwing around money to be able to dominate the market. If it was, Canopy wouldn’t be wallowing around in the muck with the rest of us. What MediPharm is establishing is a credible, certified (GMP) pharmaceutical approach to the cannabis market. Currently, most of the world is limited to medical and much of it may stay that way for a long time. So that is an advantage that means something, and it’s not as simple as competitors just throwing money at the problem because there are elements of time, knowledge, and experience that give us a leg up. And the beautiful part is that their pharmaceutical type approach to cannabis does not hurt recreational efforts one bit, because customers will either see the value of higher quality processes or they will at worst be indifferent.
In the short term, the stock may continue to frustrate, but I think the patient here we will be rewarded. That isn’t to say there are no more bumps left in the road, but it is to say that we’re riding in a vehicle that I think is well-equipped to withstand them.
Yeah I don’t think the 10% lay-off thing is true at all. The investor conference presentation from Tuesday made it seem like they have not been laying people off, or at least not widely, and operations are still running.
158,988,030 shares O/S at 5/11 per the latest Form 11 filing on the CSE website. At $1.32 per share (today’s close in USD), that is $209.9m in market cap. That doesn’t include the many warrants and options they’ve been dishing out which will further dilute the O/S upon conversion.
I’m interested in the company and vision here. Seems like some smart players are involved that have a leg up on the competition, and so if this doesn’t end up being a P&D I may be invested one day. But at $210m, it will take a long time to grow into that market cap. Because I’m not sure the ketamine and psilocybin markets will have room to support the revenues needed to make that valuation anywhere near reasonable.
I wish investors here well, but I will gladly take FOMO over chasing hype personally.
The stock price will catch up in time. The Australian GMP certification was huge news but people just haven’t been paying attention to this stock. That is fine with me because it’s what allowed me to get in so low. So I am happy to wait patiently for this one.
What they really need is to get back over the NASDAQ bid limit. They had already applied before so I have no doubt they will again. This being OTC in the US sets it back greatly.
Their 2019 financials were audited by KPMG, one of the “Big 4” accounting firms. Catching double inflated revenue would be pretty easy as an auditor as there is so much scrutiny around that accounting cycle. So if there is a significant revenue error in 2019 then that would be very surprising to me, but obviously not impossible.
But plenty of other stocks in the sector were also down big, so I’m not sure the price action has anything to do with whatever this rumor is.
Form 11 filing on the CSE website is where the number came from. Number 3c. It also shows that there are about 12m options granted.
158,988,030 shares O/S as of 5/11. The O/S is growing quickly, and I’m not sure I would call almost 160m shares a low number.
At 0.82 (USD) that is $130.4m and that doesn’t include warrants or options which they have also been dishing out.
Am I the only one bothered by that?
The diluted market cap is over $130m. I am intrigued and have been watching this one for a while now, but that is a lot for where they are. And the lock ups / warrants of these acquisitions will begin to unfold and create downward pressure on the price in the future.
The acquisition has an earn out clause based on $1.5m revenue for the clinic in 18 months. So yes this creates revenue, but maybe not that much if the earn out target is so low.
Really like the new CEO. I had researched him in the early days of this stock because he was the owner of the CRTCE and involved in AltMed with Pat McCutcheon (now on the BoD). The two of them together bring a lot of legitimacy, especially because the prior CEO was a big source of concern for me.
I am still torn on this one so will still be just watching for now.
Thanks for that clarification, I skimmed the Aphria news originally so I missed that distinction.
But I think this is important because they no longer have to ship their products from Canada to Australia; they can begin producing in Australia, right?
The GMP stuff is not in my usual wheelhouse. I haven’t researched it as much as I probably should.
No problem!
By the way, very excited by the GMP certification news. Well done to those of you who predicted it would be soon after Aphria’s announcement.
As far as I can tell, the warrants can be exercised for shares at any time up until October 2020. There is discussion around this in their MD&A. But I can’t find anything suggesting there is a lock up on when these warrants can be exercised.
3.2m warrants were exercised into shares from 12/31/19 to 3/30/20 (that is disclosed in their MD&A as well). That leaves 7m warrants left at 3/30/20, possibly up to a couple million more because the disclosures are not as descriptive about the broker warrants and finder’s warrants.
These warrants all have low strike prices (average at 12/31/19 was 0.84 CAD) so they will be exercised into shares by October 2020. With the recent economic environment I wouldn’t be surprised if there has been some dumping of these warrants by exercising them and selling the shares. We will find out soon where we are at once we get the next MD&A.
As far as any lock ups, I have not been able to find anything outside of a 6 month lock up following the reverse merger with POCML 4 which would’ve passed long ago.
The other screenshot said shares were locked up, and I saw people talking about that on Twitter when I googled it. Are you saying it’s just warrants? I’ll try to look into it myself tomorrow.
I’ve seen the screenshot you’ve posted with the 4 tranches; do you know how many shares the March 31 unlock of 25% represents?
I think this is correct. It makes matters worse that the sector has been beaten down for a year or more, and other companies’ failures and shady dealings continue to make the sector look bad. No one wants to buy today if they think they can get it cheaper tomorrow. And worse than that, no one wants to catch a falling knife.
I have used this line before, but if this company’s sales represented “widgets” and not cannabis, I have no doubt the share price would be considerably higher. But people will come around eventually.
Bingo. Even some of the highly capitalized companies are going through restructuring or other pains as a result of trying to grow too big too fast. The medium to smaller companies will not have the means to front the capital to do extraction themselves imo.
I still wonder how much coronavirus really has hurt them.
My guess would be next to nobody who was a regular user decided to stop using cannabis just because they are in lockdown, nor did they have to given that cannabis is/was listed as essential. Beyond that, through boredom or curiosity I would expect less frequent users (or maybe even non-users) to engage more. To put a finer point on that, when was the last time anyone had to take a drug test? When will be the next time?
Now, the coronavirus impact can be felt in areas you touched on — expansion in particular. But I have had a hard time understanding why this tanked so bad and so far have not found a good explanation for how the coronavirus impact justifies it.