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A take over of this company is highly unlikely IMO. It is just not that important.
I too find the volatility of this stock to be remarkable. The only explanation that I can imagine is that the public float might be quite small. I have asked the company about this question and they have no better explanation.
At this point, NVAX has gone from dream, to hope, to speculation. That is exactly the progression of the board blog, IMO. I really hope that some speculation will swoop into reality, like a phoenix, and it is not impossible. However, the track record of this company and its CEO does not argue for such scenario.
I am sorry to say that I am long very small. I wish I could say that I have been short. Even a broken clock is correct once per day (military time).
What I do think is that this company appears totally pathetic and basically sucking wind. For whatever dismal time it has been since they failed horribly on a trial that they advertised would be successful, they achieved nothing in terms of sale of the remaining technology. The remaining corporate idiots are just sucking our money. After so long, it is difficult to believe that any other company has any interest at all in this lame technology and management.
I strongly suspect that this company will go to zero. I am, regrettably long a teeny, weeny position, having already lost most of my money. WTF, may as well lose it all.
Look at these scum bag market makers print the stock down to $18 after hours by crossing one or two shares. That is really disgusting. They just want to control the last trade price indicated for their mark to market...obviously short.
That kind of thing should be illegal.
I am long. I think Heron will successfully reply to the FDA's request and the drug will become an important drug. The stock can double or more. IMO
Not my type.
Glder: the other stock?
Bone: Yo are not patient. Look today. Savara had a good report today at the conference. All is not lost.
I think there is little doubt but that approval is priced in as the probability of non-approval is exceedingly low given the actual results of the trials. The effect of approval per se, will be minor. What does matter is the degree of expanded application specified as that affects the size of the addressable market. Is it 135 trigs, 150 trigs, 100 trigs...who knows until we know. Having said that, it is already somewhat implied by the company that the request is 135 trigs. So, that is likely priced in.
What holds back the price of the stock is the execution risk of management. 400 plus salesmen is still a small force, and the company does not have a proven record of mass marketing capability. Many companies fail in the transition from development to marketing. That is one of the many reasons why a major pharma can pay a lot more than the present market price of the stock. Everyone knows this, I think. Thero knows it too.
Well, it is certainly annoying. However, we should recognize a caveat. As it is an "ATM" that means that they only take money from it as required. So, if they can reduce their cash burn as they alleged that they would, then there is hope that they may not draw from the ATM as much as we fear. It does remain the case that their programs are well advanced and the San Fillipo (sp?) program is funded by the foundation. So, that is good news. I also point out that the ketamine trial has a very short duration specification because the measurability of the response is virtually immediate. That is also good.
Nevertheless, I am very annoyed that they did not communicate this in advance, and they did not tell us what they expected by way of burn rate. Having said all of that, the stock actually rose today. I cannot readily explain that at the moment.
The 8K filed today confirms my worst fear. SEEL has filed for a $50 million ATM equity financing arrangement. As I earlier commented, they are burning through money considerably faster than they had promised. This is bad management and it is a failure of management to perform as indicated. Furthermore, they gave us no inkling that this was coming. That is why the stock has been and remains crap.
The rest of the pipeline is of course interesting, but the market only cares about the immediate issue. It will take quite some time for anything to manifest itself from the rest of the pipeline and that means dilution. The market wants a prompt solution to this present problem in order to rally the stock. IMO
Savara is presenting at the JP Morgan conference on this coming Wednesday. I think it will be important to listen to what they have to say further about the P3 as they have now had a week to think about it. I am particularly interested in their thoughts about the "unusually" high placebo effect. How can a placebo effect be unusually high? What might be the explanation for that? What might it mean about possible paths forward for a drug that seems to have worked?
Was this group an unusually optimistic group? Are the psychological impacts on lung conditions greater than the psychological impact on other bodily functions? I have no clue, but if there is an answer it could be very important to the future of the drug.
Brilliant remark: It could go up.....or it could go down. Thank you for that....very astute.
Finally, you understand. Sociopaths do not make good CEO's and they do not make for successful companies, and they never will.
The next move is a pre-packaged bankruptcy with Griffin's debt claim leading the way. That is all that remains for her, by which tactic she will attempt to steal what pathetic intellectual property appears to remain. That IP is virtually non-existent, since the patent reported to have been issued to Griffin and Shen most recently is fraudulent and will not stand in court. It is worthless. There are no approvals or contracts owned by IMUN anywhere. There is Cytocom, but that too is almost nothing but hype. Hopefully Griffin goes to the slammer. In any case, Griffin will never be an officer of any public company again when the SEC is finished with her. Griffin will most likely be flipping burgers at a White Castle in Alabama in a year. The stock goes to zero. I told you so.
Who would ever finance Griffin again. In the past 7 years, Griffin has raised and wasted $20 million and destroyed $200 million of market capitalization since the end of 2012. The only people naïve enough to believe that Griffin is anything but a complete incompetent and a crook are on this Board, and there are only two or three of you suckers remaining.
The price should rise sharply, say 25% to 50%, because the expected patient count rises sharply. Or said another way, the discount rate on the presently expected patient count will drop sharply. Either way you look at it, the price rises sharply. It is the math.
Regrettably, it appears that the market was not under estimating Novavax. The market was over estimating Novavax, at least for the moment. I remain long, but this is not looking good. Any strategic deal done now out of desperation will likely be harsh for equity longs.
The company presented at the Jeffries conference, and the stock fell 7% during the day, but some trivial trade bid the stock up after hours in order to print it better. At first, I did not understand why the stock should have fallen upon the presentation. Now, I understand. While the presentation of the science of the company was good and interesting, there was zero information about the capital/cash position of the company and its burn rate. The company reported $11 million of cash at March 31, and it reported burning $9 million in R&D in the first quarter. So, at first blush, the company could be out of cash in June. However, the 10Q also says that there were some one-off items during the first quarter. These only total about $5 million (page 24 of 10Q). Thus, even eliminating these items as one off, the company has less than 3 quarters of cash remaining. One can also wonder how many such one-off expenses will occur during these next 2 to 3 quarters further increasing their burn rate. It seems highly unlikely that the company will achieve any actual FDA drug approval within six months. This information indicates that important dilution is likely imminent. This signal is also inconsistent with the stated business operating strategy of the company to minimize burn rate. I think that traders sold the stock correctly based upon the information, or lack thereof, that the company provided in the Jeffries presentation. I hope that the company will clarify the information and that the whole truth will show that the company is conserving cash per its business strategy, but that remains to be proven at this point.
Yes, this group, ETF Managers, look like a strong, long term holder. With 10% of the shares, their holding reduces the free float. I have also communicated with Will Roberts who seems a straight up guy.
I have run rough numbers on the Fragile X market opportunity itself, and I conclude that there is a five bagger on that alone, and potentially a ten bagger. My opinion is that this is a very strong long. I have a sense of management through friends who know them personally and my sense is that they are honest and competent. The high volatility of the stock is concerning. I suspect, but I don't know, that it may result from a relatively low level of free float.
For the moment and until proven otherwise, it appears that Fress was just a self interested short term pumper, as I suspected.
To add clarity.....the cash in the company is largely (not entirely) irrelevant. What matters is whether anyone believes and wants the intellectual property. You and I may think that the IP is wonderful. Maybe it is, maybe it is not. Our opinion does not matter. What matters is whether there is a buyer for it at a price that will reward us at this pathetic price level.
Obviously they are TRYING to sell themselves. Anyone can see that. The issue is whether there is anyone who cares to buy and at what price. This is not rocket science.
No one will undertake to acquire a company in the hope of making a few million. By the time you pay the lawyer and investment banker fees, and the termination contracts with management, there will be nothing. Please do not be naïve. The only people who will ever benefit from the cash on hand is the management and the board.
Buzz: By using the expression "public pumper," I did not really mean to denigrate Fress' contribution. It was in part in fun. I do not mind people telling the Board why they think a stock is good or bad. It is my responsibility to determine whether I think that information is right, wrong, exaggerated, or simply irrelevant.
It is only a good buy if a larger company actually cares to buy the remaining technology for PAD. This is a complete speculation and is therefore very risky. I am long, but only because these idiots completely failed in their kidney tech. Incompetent management. Without a buyout, this company will disappear into the ether and the stock will go to zero.
It should be quite obvious to people by now that Dwarren is an apologist for Griffin. I would not be surprised to learn that he/she is one of her ugly children, as she could only have ugly children. This is obvious because Dwarren spends his entire day on this site. He/she finds every possible way to rationalize or twist facts to imply or state that there is great upside potential in the stock. This whole pitch of his that it is a dump and pump is to that very point. Dwarren wants you to believe that there is some big wonderful thing that will soon pop out and make this company valuable. That is his manipulation on behalf of Griffin, his Mom.
I say again. The technology is legitimate, albeit very difficult to capitalize upon. To make money on this tech requires competent and honest management. This, IMUN does not have. After the SEC removes all of these criminals, there is only a slim chance that there will be anything left of value. Griffin has destroyed, stolen and lied everything into oblivion. That is where she should go as well.
RJ Dailey and the other large shareholder conspirators will likely go down with Griffin, as they deserve.
I note the disappearance of the public pumper FRESS.
I do not play games. Answer your own questions.
Dwarren: Your view is, in my opinion, just plain wrong. It was always a pump for Griffin. But Griffin could not execute, because she is a liar and everyone knows it. So, Griffin could not achieve objectives plain due to incompetence. It is not that Griffin intended to under-perform and thereby deliberately drive the stock price down and then pull a rabbit out of the hat. It is simply that Griffin is a stinking bad and evil person who cannot get anything done because she is a liar and a crook. The clock has run out for Griffin. That is why the stock is sitting dead in the water, and will likely remain there. The SEC investigation will prove meaningful fraud. It may rise to the level of criminality. I hope Griffin goes to jail where she belongs, never to exit due to unexpected events therein.
Griffin and most of the people immediately around her are crooks. Griffin is a self confessed criminal. Brouillette is a convicted securities fraudster. Really, do you think that Zebras can change their stripes? The technology of the companies is legitimate, but the people are not. That fact has destroyed the value that could have been created. Griffin is responsible for that destruction of value. That is obvious, IMO.
Thanks. Good research.
What's up, doc? Be specific please.
until it isn't
Whether the long is "smart" or not depends upon what turns out to be the future reality. I am long because I believe that the future patient base will be considerably larger than the figure that is presently embedded in the price of the stock. As the certainty of the business and the demand for its product becomes more and more certain and quantifiable, then the discount rate will decline because the risk has declined. These two factors: 1) rising cash flow expectations, and 2) declining risk perception, will result in a dramatic rise in the price of the stock and its overall market capitalization. If my expectations turn out to be more accurate than the presently embedded market expectations, then this stock will be highly rewarding. Having said that there is a long way between expectations (hopes) and reality, and "many a slip twixt cup and lip." Stuff happens.
It is obvious that using a substantially lower discount rate will result in a much higher price. I can do it of course, but I will not bother. First, any "average group" discount rate that some academic has inferred is an average and therefore benefits from the diversification of the averaging. The primary point is that any individual security has specific risk which is attached to its individual, non-diversifiable, risk. Therefore, it is entirely possible for one "biotech" to have a specific risk of 18% and a group of biotechs to demonstrate group risk of 12%. Those are apples and oranges as they say.
Secondly, suppose my discounting at 12% yields a price of $35. Well, whoppee! Another way to say that is that you do not think that my 18% discount rate is appropriate and that your discount rate is appropriate, and that therefore the stock is under-valued, in your opinion. That is perfectly appropriate. If you think my rate is too high or if you think that my terminal patient base is too low, or whatever, then you think the stock is under-valued. I have just told you what the market thinks. As a buyer, or seller, it is your right to differ with the opinion of the market.
Finally, this is exactly why I do not care to discuss this stuff and why I generally do not comment. It just ends up in a circuitous discussion of fanatic bulls asserting I am wrong. It is not I who is speaking, it is the market speaking and I am just translating it for you and me. The market is usually not stupid. You can run your own numbers and make your own assumptions and decide what you will.
For me, I am long the stock for exactly the reasons that I cited. Very simple. (Oh, by the way, please don't quote some academic in order to try to impress me. My academic credentials are the same. I am not taking offense. I just don't care.)
A discount rate of between 16 to 18 per cent is appropriate, IMO, for this high specific risk equity. I do not really want to review all of my calculations and assumptions with the Board. If you do not like my result, then do your own math.
There are often remarks on this board that the stock should be much higher....say $30 or more. In my opinion, that is not true. I have done the discounted cash flows and the price of $17 plus or minus a bit reflects an expected patient base of about 7 - 8 million within about 4 years. That is, I suggest, a bullish and reasonable expectation under the present set of facts that are actually known. In addition, while the script growth is reasonably strong, it is not so strong as to suggest a notably higher future patient base than that.
The reason to hold this stock is not, IMO, that it is presently meaningfully under valued. The reason to hold the stock is that the shareholder maintains that the set of facts will change and improve dramatically so that the expected future patient base will be substantially expanded.
There are likely catalysts on the horizon that would constitute such a fact, such as standard of care status from the AHA. However, until those are facts, they are just speculation. The stock is correctly priced under the present set of facts, and appropriate risk adjusted discount rates. I have done the math.
I wonder if OTC availability of certain CBD products can pose a meaningful competitive threat to Zyne's ability to control the approved medicinal applications. Probably not, but not certain.
Is it certain that the production cost of synthetic CBD (and THC) is substantially lower than the production cost from the plant? I would guess so, but have no confirmation.