Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[Leonard McKinley]

There are often remarks on this board that the stock should be much higher....say $30 or more. In my opinion, that is not true. I have done the discounted cash flows and the price of $17 plus or minus a bit reflects an expected patient base of about 7 - 8 million within about 4 years. That is, I suggest, a bullish and reasonable expectation under the present set of facts that are actually known. In addition, while the script growth is reasonably strong, it is not so strong as to suggest a notably higher future patient base than that.
The reason to hold this stock is not, IMO, that it is presently meaningfully under valued. The reason to hold the stock is that the shareholder maintains that the set of facts will change and improve dramatically so that the expected future patient base will be substantially expanded.
There are likely catalysts on the horizon that would constitute such a fact, such as standard of care status from the AHA. However, until those are facts, they are just speculation. The stock is correctly priced under the present set of facts, and appropriate risk adjusted discount rates. I have done the math.