Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[Leonard McKinley]

I think there is little doubt but that approval is priced in as the probability of non-approval is exceedingly low given the actual results of the trials. The effect of approval per se, will be minor. What does matter is the degree of expanded application specified as that affects the size of the addressable market. Is it 135 trigs, 150 trigs, 100 trigs...who knows until we know. Having said that, it is already somewhat implied by the company that the request is 135 trigs. So, that is likely priced in.
What holds back the price of the stock is the execution risk of management. 400 plus salesmen is still a small force, and the company does not have a proven record of mass marketing capability. Many companies fail in the transition from development to marketing. That is one of the many reasons why a major pharma can pay a lot more than the present market price of the stock. Everyone knows this, I think. Thero knows it too.