Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Will they still do it at the current market condition?
They decided not to do it at $30.
Clovis, Agios, MM, breast ca --- not much of boost at all.
If FMI has no major PR, such as new coverage for reimbursement, I wonder what would be the rationale or urgency to proceed now.
It is very interesting to watch how it pans out.
Added more today.
NDA in Q1, 2015
no update in Alzheimer program.
Modest decline in sh price after hour trading.
DDI and stability test completed as scheduled.
FMI—Looks like I made a good call on today's price action (unfortunately).
Yes, You did and I lost chance to sell mine @ 28 this morning.
High was 28.02, but my order didn't go through.
Thanks Dew.
The result was little disappointing. I may have to lower my expectation for FMI till next year. This reminds me of 'PET CT', rapid uptake in the beginning then quick saturation followed by second surge with CMS coverage.
Q4 has long holiday period. I don't see much hope that they can do 1500 more tests than last Q. BTW, UCSF expects 2000 tests of their own in 2015. If it were not for their pride and ego, out-sourcing seems financially more logical for AMC's. Certainly ILMN is undermining FMI business.
I hope FMI has real stuff for us tonight, EOM.
Cheesy PR it is indeed.
May be trying to build up the price base for something?
Hope they have something more granular for C.C.
Great momentum!
RE FMI at MS
I wish Mr. Pellini had little more in depth discussion about category 3 testing and business development. Although it may take longer turn around time and extra expenses compare to "Hot Spot Tests", his clear vision about comprehensive genome analysis is the reason I hold FMI as the biggest in my portfolio. True value of FMI resides in molecular information platform. Only Cat 3 testings can accommodate further development in this field because treating cancer will never be simple ideal situation like "one shot one kill with head shot"
For business front, I wish they form collaboration with a giant specialty lab player, like Abbott. Physicians may order invasive biopsies, but hospital based path labs are the ones to decide who to process the specimens. The real competition starts at this level. BP revenue will account ? only a small portion compared to clinical testings. ILMA or BP will need to order new biopsies or compete for ? left over specimen.
I would sign up for the trials being conducted by BP's only if conventional chemo fails. Size of specimen is getting smaller. Cancer is not simple like running genetic test for amniotic fluid.
"Box maker vs. IP" sounds like GPRO.
Jmp on ACAD target 31
Piper Jaffray seems to have better grip on PIMA.
PIMA is likely to have huge impact on entire health care cost.
Decreased Nursing Home admission, staffing needs and other ancillary medicine usages (such as Anti-anxiety, Anti- depressants, anti-psychotics, sleeping pills and Physical restraints).
I am quite hopeful for ADP study outcome as well.
Although further studies are necessary to define if it's sleep benefit is independent to antipsychotic effect or not, natural sleep cycle can restore our circadian rhythm for the brain to function better.
PDP, ADP, Sleep and Schizo...
I believe PIMA will be a blockbuster in 2 years.
Many thanks to you, Dough.
FMI Baker Bros also added more.eom.
68 to 70 Imo
FMI
Thank you for your answer.
I meant that FMI can not be too aggressive in lab expansion and ramping up their test numbers if CMS reimbursement doesn't kick in soon. I wanted to point out their cash reserve is low compared to like ITMN, ACAD etc.
They have to monitor the volume of free test closely.
I hope I can see bigger volume spike with CMS endorsement than you projected in your valuation model.
I am thinking to add more at this level with ITMN profit.
GL
FMI "Medicare reimbursement should be established in the next 9 months or so, IMO"
Thanks again for your FMI valuation model.
Are you expecting any special study outcome or any event to speculate Medicare coverage for the time frame of 9 month?
Does CMS have similar committees like 'advisory committee or PDUFA'?
With CMS reimbursement, flood gate will open and there will be real brisk uptake then plateau may reach over the next several years.
I think FMI already started it's operation in EU as well.
They need to raise a lot more capital or find a partner to expand their infrastructure rapidly to secure large market share.
Without extra fund, reimbursement issue will act as a glass ceiling, limiting the number of tests FMI can perform.
What is your expectation in regards to Account Receivable?
Likely FMI soon needs to write off huge amount of AR occurring prior to CMS coverage. all IMO.
TIA,
Pharma revenue is perishable although it's keeping FMI afloat for now.
ILMA's collaboration is only aiming for the tip of iceberg.
I am less concerned about ILMN-BP partnership news.
FMI currently has 3 segments of revenue sources ---CMS,PPO and Pharmaceutical sector.
There will be no distinction among these once nationwide coverage for targeted approach in cancer therapy kicks in.
Diagnosis of cancer is confirmed by obtaining biologic specimen in local communities. The specimen will be sent to NGS operators then the result will be delivered to the end users, local doctors.
ILMN is hardware manufacturer and FMI is value added re-seller.
There is no such thing as Pharma Revenue since all the NGS related service will be reimbursed by third party payers.
Medicare will pay not even a dime till NGS is validated as evidence based medicine. That's why Pharma is paying FMI now.
FMI is doing all the free tests to prove it is worthy.
ILMN will search for NEW actionable anomalies for BP and BP will try to develop chemo agents to target these. ILMN will not have access to new diagnostic specimen. They need to build retail outfits like FMI or DGX.
FMI's first mover advantages can only be recognized after new road is paved. FMI should not forget to build many toll gates with huge speed stops..
ALL IMO
Superb execution by ITMN management team.
EU sales is picking up even without new launching during the last Q.
I expect to see further traction in sales outside U.S. with Ascend data. The most exciting news from C.C. was launching is expected in Q4, way ahead of schedule. Also all the detail in preparation was announced. No FDA advisory committee planned. They had all this prepped 2 years ago already. I have seen many companies settling with low ball offer just because they lack marketing experience and capital it requires. ITMN is capable of "go it alone" and this pathway actually can bring the best return to the shareholders,IMO. BI will have real tough time to gain any market share against Pirfenidone.
SSc-ILD can be a game changer later on.
Aside from PCP and Pulmonologist, Rheumatologists should be a target physician group as well. Company should consider building ILD patients registry database through imaging data such as High Resolution CT.
Unlike Hep C, ILD can be controlled, but not cured.
Huge patients warehousing,
No boom and bust.
All IMO, GLTA
Given limited number of solid tumors and genetic mutations known to human, DB can be built by anyone like DGX and Sloan-Kettering.
First mover advantage which i believe in may be huge, but the bar of entry in this field may not be so high.
The reimbursement from third party payers and chemo developer for the test may reach the peak relatively quickly,IMO.
Do you have any insight to share in regards to continuous stream of revenue through membership fee from care providers or researchers?
Sorry to ask so many questions.
I always consider myself as novice and the last person to be informed if there is any news or changes. I am just trying to understand market psychology and time execution.
Hopefully C.C. will end selling pressure and bring buyers back by providing reassurance. Just wishful thinking on my own :).
Identifying companies with good fundamentals seems not so difficult.
All I have to do is to listen to the wise men like you and others on your board.
I am glad that FMI is trying to resolve the specimen size issues.
However, I still need your help understanding how FMI will add extra value to their Information Platform DB and how to protect it.
I hope it is not as simple as like " NSCLC with mutation xyz needs chemo abc"
How can they protect their IP from new competitors?
TIA.
FDA's approach to regulate LDTs is absolutely justified.
Utmost duty of FDA is to protect general public through quality control,IMO.
I agree with IanfromSI.
I will add more before the C.C..
Thanks again,
Earning C.C. on this Wed. 8/6
I believe ITMN will advance higher this upcoming week and reach new highs surpassing current TP's.
EU and Canadian roll out can gain the traction from recent trial result. They may increase the full year guidelines.
The Balance sheet will look better than ever with no debt and decreased overall expenses.
ITMN is capable of "Go it Alone" with previous marketing experience for Actimmune and Esbriet outside U.S..
So nice and lean pipeline as "fibrosis specialty co." It can not come any better than this as s "take over candidate".
Imagine "off label use" will be very common in all kind of ILD at any level of severity.
All IMO,
GLTA
UBS says 2 B +high margin.
Likely to be standard of care for IPF.
ITMN valuation. please help.
Lisa Bayko at JMP has the highest TP $55 and sales estimate at peak being $750 mil. Current MC of ITMN is $4.4 billion. Yet no one says it's too lofty at current level.
My biggest confusion is the prevalence of IPF.
Everybody is using different numbers.
When Mr.Dan Welch presented at JMP in 2013, he quoted the prevalence in U.S. as 130,000 to 170,000.
IPF foundation says 130 to 500,000.
ITMN website says 500 to 700,000 which is 4 times higher from just a year ago in the U.S., not worldwide.
The rollout outside U.S. has been very slow. Soon it's going to be 3 years since Esbriet marketing started. The estimated sales in non U.S. market this year is $130 to $140 million per C.C. guideline.
Pricing in EU was 33k to 47k per patient per year. Even if ITMN achieves pricing higher than $60k, how much upside potential in share price I can expect? Is the market ready to assign a couple billion dollars for SScd?
TIA
I have been following ITMN since the era of Actimmune, but with very painful memories. Hope no strike out this time.
ACHN 1625 can not use a booster. Can it still be QD?
Their nuke did not even reach POC yet.
I can not even count all the nuc's who claimed to be better than 7977 yet couldn't avoid shelving.
INHX 189
IDIX NM 222, IDX 184
Alisios nuke
BCRX
VRTX vx 222
Assigning any value to ACHN is premature, IMO.
NVS not only lost money in IDIX but also 12 years.
I copied my post from YMB 2012.
FYI
NVS invested $411 mil in IPO 2003, started 54% of co.
Average purchase price $14 to 20 per sh.
NVS and IDIX brought Tyzeka for HEP B into the market, but sales is poor and IDIX gets only a couple million a year as
royalties from NVS. This is relatively negligible assets.
They passed 184, vested and failed in 320, handed 899 to GSK which again failed. All the programs except nuc and NS5A was shelved at this time. NVS's ownership has dwindled down to 31%. NVS needs to keep it higher than 30% in order to keep their right of first negotiation on every compounds reaching POC. NVS has vested more than $ 1 bil in IDIX so far.
Every cards NVS drew busted and missed 184 river.
IDIX had rough time last year, had 30 mil dilutive shares added through 2 secondary offerings. IDIX had to agree to lower minimum NVS ownership threshold from 40% to 30% in exchange of NVS buying 2 mil share for lousy $9.3 mil.
NVS didn't buy single sh in Nov. secondary.
NVS purchased 55k sh in Dec.and 80k? in Feb. through the stock purchase option program, NOT in the open market.
If NVS buys any sh, it is just to maintain 30%.
NVS inked the deal with Enanta although they still could have exercised the right on IDX 719 which will reach POC stage in couple months. Business is business.
NVS was really lucky to recover some of the losses.
Baupost is only one made all the killing.
$ITMN
How much premium can ITMN fetch?
Is there still some upside from the current level?
TIA
just wait a couple days.
I had voluntary tender if it made faster payment.
or call the transferring company, contact number is in my post a few days ago.
You should not worry,IMO.
@Sivad and Cuban
you are paid $6.44/sh yesterday already.
no need to do anything.
your cvr is posted in your account as CHTP E1 with ZERO cash value, meaning NOT transferable.
TIME TO ROLL YOUR MONEY NOW!!!!!!!
I got paid as well eom
$6.44/sh will be paid to your account in 2 to 3 weeks.
No one knows exact date.
The premium for CVR is not your money anymore.
CHTP is delisted.
You can not trade it anymore.
Your CVR record will be kept in escrow account.
CVR payout will be posted over the next 3 years.
Either 0 or max. of $1.50/sh.
Guppi00 is right.
If you don't believe in CVR, just sell the sh before 6/20 and cashout to move on. There is risk you may not be able to exit if you do not sell before 6/20.
If you believe in CVR, you can either tender sh before 6/20 or hold it without tendering. As Guppi00 says, you will NOT lose anything even if you don't tender voluntarily. same $6.44 plus CVR.
It's better to tender now if you want the deal closed and paid in 1 month. You will still be paid higher price if there is higher bid before deal closure. Again there is NO financial discrepancy between voluntary vs. involuntary tender. every share holders will be treated equally.
I tendered my share because I wanted CVR and paid as soon as within 1 mo rather than later. I want to roll my money in this bull market, but everything is too expensive now. Locking my money for 1 month may provide me better bargain entry point in stocks I am watching when I get fresh dry powder from CHTP later.
Knowing my weakness of lacking discipline and patience, it seems not a bad idea to tie myself down with 2 inches thick steel rope.
Guppi00 is right.
If you don't believe in CVR, just sell the sh before 6/20 and cashout to move on. There is risk you may not be able to exit if you do not sell before 6/20.
If you believe in CVR, you can either tender sh before 6/20 or hold it without tendering. As Guppi00 says, you will NOT lose anything even if you don't tender voluntarily. same $6.44 plus CVR.
It's better to tender now if you want the deal closed and paid in 1 month. You will still be paid higher price if there is higher bid before deal closure. Again there is NO financial discrepancy between voluntary vs. involuntary tender. every share holders will be treated equally.
I tendered my share because I wanted CVR and paid as soon as within 1 mo rather than later. I want to roll my money in this bull market, but everything is too expensive now. Locking my money for 1 month may provide me better bargain entry point in stocks I am watching when I get fresh dry powder from CHTP later.
Knowing my weakness of lacking discipline and patience, it seems not a bad idea to tie myself down with 2 inches thick steel rope.
cash pay 0ut and tender your share FYI
to tender, just call your broker ask then they will do in on the phone for you.
Scottrade charges onetime $25 per account as processing fee regardless sh amount.
you will see your share still held in your account till deal completed.
Trading will halt if more than 50% of total sh are tendered by 6/20 and the deal completed.
If not tender expiration date will be extended for undetermined period.
CASH payout for $6.44 will take about ANOTHER 3 WEEKS from deal completion.
Again, you will nor receive cash for trading AT LEAST FOR 1 MONTH OR 2-3 MONTHS.
10 to 15 cents premium and your fund " FROZEN" for 1-3 months is the cost of "CVR".
Call the handling co direct if Any questions
Innisfree M&A Incorporated
501 Madison Avenue, 20th floor
New York, NY 10022
(877) 687-1875 (stockholders call toll free)
(212) 750-5833 (banks and brokers call collect)
DGX is the probable culprit for FMI's recent poor performance, rather than reimbursement issue. DGX is a true dominant player in the diagnostic market. DGX is present everywhere. FMI can lose significant portion of market if keeps forming alliance with other cancer specialty centers like Sloan-Kettering. My utmost concern is DGX being gatekeeper for all the pathologic specimens. I can not think of any contender who can really compete against DGX in this field.
Among many other things to consider, The value of bioinformatic platform seems to be the most important factor. NGS testing itself will likely to turn into simple commodity business in view of increasing competition due to no entry barrier. How much does it cost to run antibiotic sensitivity test now?
I am fully vested in FMI, believing in exponential growth in NGS application on all newly diagnosed cases. NGS will soon to be community standard. I just hope FMI finds a partner like DGX to maximize first mover advantages. All IMO.
Dew! I'd like to show my deep appreciation for all the excellent work you have done.
probably they are expecting some settlement from GILD rather than true value of their Hep C pipeline including their Nukes.Imo.
Dew. Re: Reimbursement issue
Is this result sufficient enough to move third party payers to endorse FMI in near term? or FMI still needs to prove improved outcome in mortality which may take years?
TIA
Too low ball offer to take!
$6.44 is way too low considering intra day high of $6.83.
There should be no CVR nonsense!
I am curious what the trigger is to collect CVR of $1.50/sh in 2018.
Analysts estimates ranges from $400 mil to $700 mil.
Do the math - $400 X 5 = $2 billion
The BOD takes offer for $683 mil with a guarantee of trigger sales in Year 2015 through 2017 and they are confident Northera sales will surpass the trigger. If BOD is so positive about Northera Marker, why not GIA?
It is hard to justify 70% discount on already approved Northera despite no established marketing resources.
It's gotta be minimum $8/sh CASH or I would prefer GIA.
I wonder Baker Brothers agree on this term.
I am going to join Proxy fight against this deal.
All IMO.
GLTA
P.S. I greatly appreciate hard work and all the success current management achieved for the shareholders.
Some light reading
Thanks for the article. The author expressed his opinion very well in a reasonable fashion without pumping the stock. I absolutely agree CHTP is double digit stock. It's so amazing these wall street wolves all move in pack. We will double from here in less than 12 months whichever path CHTP takes.
Northera is Real.
All imho
GLTA
Feb option players are getting killed.
Lid is tight at $6. Brokers will call clients to urge to take action or to confirm plan for exercise by Sat noon. Then MM will release the lid and let the price ride above $6 this afternoon.
AF/street.com article is very good indicating good price action after fear of secondary offering resolves one way or the other. If no news for financing this weekend,I believe BO talk is substantial. Unless the management has reasonable conviction for BO or Partnering,CHTP has to raise money NOW!
massive selling is going on. Feb option players are getting killed. If CHTP will choose the route to market Northera, dilution will be imminent within one week.
If I don't see secondaries next week,I will be ALL IN for buy out. IMO.