InterMune Inc. (ITMN)

[onemodolar]

ITMN valuation. please help.

Lisa Bayko at JMP has the highest TP $55 and sales estimate at peak being $750 mil. Current MC of ITMN is $4.4 billion. Yet no one says it's too lofty at current level.

My biggest confusion is the prevalence of IPF.
Everybody is using different numbers.
When Mr.Dan Welch presented at JMP in 2013, he quoted the prevalence in U.S. as 130,000 to 170,000.
IPF foundation says 130 to 500,000.
ITMN website says 500 to 700,000 which is 4 times higher from just a year ago in the U.S., not worldwide.

The rollout outside U.S. has been very slow. Soon it's going to be 3 years since Esbriet marketing started. The estimated sales in non U.S. market this year is $130 to $140 million per C.C. guideline.

Pricing in EU was 33k to 47k per patient per year. Even if ITMN achieves pricing higher than $60k, how much upside potential in share price I can expect? Is the market ready to assign a couple billion dollars for SScd?

TIA
I have been following ITMN since the era of Actimmune, but with very painful memories. Hope no strike out this time.