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The BOD should come out swinging to defend us tomorrow
against these "Ronin Raiders."
If they don't, you have your answer.
The Ronin letter was vicious. Bitter. Angry. Bordering on "over the top." With insinuations of malfeasance, illegality, even criminality.
If that letter were written about me, I'd sue the authors for libel immediately. I'd write a comprehensive retort defending myself. I'd do everything in my power to clear my good name and reputation.
Let's see what happens tomorrow.
Ronin planned this from the beginning
Because they saw a lackadaisical management team in no hurry.
Before they ever bought their first share, they knew this day would come.
Everything is being timed.
Clear advantage to releasing the letter after the RS. Maximum effect.
Shareholders are livid and ready to clean house.
They should be.
We need to protect the IP of PS blockade; that is primary. Don't want to get snookered on its enormous value.
The question that will come to us is this:
Would you take $1 million dollars now, or wait another five years and get $5 million?
That's a big difference. But given the opportunity cost of waiting another 5 years, I think most of us would take the million and RUN.
I think that's what we're facing.
The market knows it, and that's why we took off today.
The market can smell a deal miles away.
Best,
Joe Six Pack
Remember, "the letter" was written by 2 people: Stafford and White
Yes, they could conceivably be a proxy for a bigger BP, but that's not clear at all.
More likely, they had many private talks with the BOD, got ultra-frustrated, and then published the letter.
Convinced PPHM had many fine offers for PS Blockade AND exosomes, and turned them all down.
Ronin exasperated.
Drops the bomb.
Let's see what happens tomorrow AH.
Stock price will zoom today and tomorrow, because news might break.
BOD will try to save their necks.
Best to all,
Joe Six Pack
Stock price sharply up due to pending news?
BOD on the hot seat. Desperate to save their necks.
Ronin forcing their hand.
News coming?
Market says possible. $5.14 and climbing.
Best,
Joe Six Pack
Chey, TSIII did a great job at Xencor
For 18 years.
The time commitment he gave there might help alleviate concerns about him being a raider.
If he's with us for the long-term, we're in great shape.
Best,
Joe
Trad, I hope you're right.
Let's hope Ronin wants to monetize the great potential of PS Blockade as a stockholder and not as a takeover agent.
I was thinking that maybe PPHM did have a very good deal and just turned it down out of greed.
Ronin could have gotten wind of that turn-down from players OUTSIDE PPHM (i.e. before they invested).
In any case, Cheynew, is right. The last thing you want to do right now is sell.
The situation is too dynamic right now.
Best,
Joe Six Pack
Bain, Ronin forcing a deal?
I think you may be right. Ronin certainly detailed all of these concerns to PPHM privately before going public with the letter.
So now they may be attempting to force the BOD and executive committee's hand.
Accept the very good offer you got for PS Blockade and the other deal offer you got for exosomes, or WE'RE TEAMING UP WITH DART TO BOOT YOU OFF THIS GRAVY TRAIN.
If this scenario plays out, we're in for one hell of a ride before the ASM in October.
Best,
Joe Six Pack
Ronin didn't buy 8.8% just for Avid.
They're downplaying Bavi. But they know that's where the real dough is.
Current BOD probably turned down a very good deal for Bavi and Ronin went ballistic.
And they had every right to go ballistic.
Let's clean out the stables, get fresh blood in there, and monetize PS BLOCKADE.
Go Ronin!
Best,
Joe Six Pack
Cloaked, man up.
Management is incompetent. Ronin has laid it out with straight numbers.
There's no hiding it.
Humility is a good thing. I focused too much on the good science with PS blockade and didn't pay attention to management.
Many here on the Board were right. Admit it and move on.
This is actually a very good day for PPHM. PS blockade, in my view, still has great potential, but IT NEEDS TO BE IN THE RIGHT HANDS.
C'mon CP!
Best,
Joe Six Pack
Loof, I agree. The NCCN trials must go on.
I still think PS Blockade will be PPHM's ace.
But you're right. We need it in the right hands.
Best,
Joe Six
Time to man up.
I focused too much on the good science behind PS blockade and didn't pay enough attention to management.
Many here on the Board were right.
I still think PS blockade has potential, but Management has to go first.
I'm behind Ronin 100%.
Let's clean out the stables.
Best to all,
Joe Six Pack
Extinguish your seatbelts and fasten your cigarettes.
Bio, great post. I've always said the cell membrane is where the action is.
And we control the cell membrane.
HIV, herpes, and many other viral infections: they all enter the cell through phosphatidylserine, wrap themselves in its lipid coat upon exiting, create exosome vesicles, and remain resistant to the immune system.
PS is sitting in the catbird seat.
Best,
Joe Six Pack
Jake, really like the Wolchok melanoma slide using ACT
Great graphic.
ACT + PS Blockade wows
Adoptive Cell Transfer (ACT) and CAR-T (Chimeric Antigen Receptors to be placed on T-cells) are similar engineering feats that place protein receptors on T-cell surfaces to attack specific cancers.
Wolchok manipulated CD4+ T-cells and put anti-melanoma receptors on them. He then combined them with Bavi in a murine melanoma model. Stellar results with no off-target side effects. Other treatments destroyed the mouse's ear. Bavi and melanoma CAR-T receptors left the mouse's ear intact. (see the pictures in the link above.)
Best,
Joe Six Pack
Jake, AZN most definitely has been underperforming
Precisely why it's a takeover target. Soriot realizes this more than anyone. He saw the writing on the wall and bolted.
The biggest shark out there that wants AZN is Pfizer. They've been after them for years.
If Pfizer (the largest Pharm in the world) lowers the boom on AZN, they'll get durvalumab. PPHM then becomes partners with PFE.
So does Soriot's departure thus mean anything for PPHM?
Uh, yeah.
If Pfizer gets an anti-PD1 Mab, start putting salt and pepper your shares. They're going to get eaten.
Best,
Joe Six Pack
Corp, don't forget normalcy bias
Geo, again, I/O is in its infancy; just because Big Pharma hasn't bought PS Blockade (yet), doesn't mean it won't.
Normalcy bias. Just because some event hasn't yet happened, doesn't mean it won't ever happen. We want life to be normal and predictable, but it rarely is. Double and triple that for biotech.
Best,
J6P
JNCJ, $4.99 HOD = $0.71 pre-split!
Yes folks, the pre-split price has gone from low of $0.50 on Friday, 7/7, to $0.71 HOD today (pre-split). That's 40% up in 3 days of trading.
What gives? Soriot?
Best,
Joe Six
Bye, bye AZN -Soriot departs = buyout
GILD is after Durvalumab.
I knew it!
A guy like Soriot doesn't just "leave."
That would be like Milligan just up and leaving GILD. Ain't gonna happen.
Something's up.
Best,
Joe Six Pack
Corp, GJH and I have been exchanging ideas for years.
We're way beyond whatever you're bringing up.
I know we're all frustrated, and you're right. Avid is our lifeline right now.
I AGREE WITH YOU.
I'm just fascinated by all the recent Big Pharma machinations revealing how desperate they are to get into the I/O game. BMY is a huge takeover target precisely because of Opdivo.
Why are so many of the Big Pharmas rabid for I/O? Let me venture a guess with you: hmmm, how 'bout $$$$$$$ gargantuan bucks.
Pfizer wants BMY. Gild wants BMY. JNJ wants BMY. If GILD can't get BMY, they want AZN. Why, why, why.
PS blockade full validation will come with the NCCN PS blockade + Keytruda Head and Neck trial.
But Big Pharma may strike at any time, knowing what it needs for max profits.
So take the "other side." I'll stick with Wolchok and his search to expand the responder footprint to the very anti-PD1s that made his name.
Best,
Joe Six
Good John, PS blockade LOSES to Opdivo every time
You're right. But that's in monotherapy trials.
PS blockade most certainly affects pathways. When you change polarization and recharge M1 macrophages, that has a profound effect on pathways. When you dramatically increase interferon gamma, while decreasing MDSCs 40%, PATHWAYS are most definitely altered.
But it's all synergy. PS blockage needs anti-PD1 and anti-PD1 need PS blockade.
Wolchok's melanoma patients from 10 years ago are alive and well. Do they have "diminishing returns"? No.
It's much more about BIOMARKERS now, and who responds and who doesn't. It's all genomic medicine now. And for those who aren't primed to respond a priori, well, they'll need to be conditioned to respond.
PS blockade pre-clinicals with Hutchins and Brekken have shown precisely that.
The I/O 2.0 field is moving too rapidly and dynamically. Very hard to pin down. Difficult to make categorical statements.
Saying Bavi is no good b/c no Big Pharma has bought it yet, makes no sense. For all the hoopla surrounding I/O, only 2 drugs have made a splash: Opdivo and Keytruda. Just two!
The field remains in its infancy. If Wolchok sought out PS blockade, he did it for a reason.
The primary one is that a very high percentage of patients do not respond to anti-PD1 Mabs.
Wolchok is always ahead of the buyers. Bench science is always ahead of the clinic.
We're just getting started.
Best,
Joe Six
Geo I just want to reiterate that PS blockade increases PD-1 expression 50%, CD8 levels at least 30%, and CD137 expression 50%.
Only COMBO therapy with anti-PD1's does this.
Let me make this clear. Anti-PD1 Mabs BEAT Bavi everytime in monotherapy. But that I/O 1.0.
It's the SYNERGY with anti-PD1's and PS blockade that gets the toast buttered.
I will hammer this point every day because this is where our future lies. The Big Boys are rabid to get their hands on Anti-PD1's.
Once they do, they come after us.
PS blockade has been shown to fire up PD1 levels at least 50%. That turns NON-responders into responders.
That is the biggest problem facing I/O today. Non-responders.
Wolchok's melanoma responders are alive and well when they should have been dead 10 years ago. (Yes, he was running small trials back then, and responders with the right genome made his name).
But what if a person doesn't have the right genome to respond?
Enter PS blockade (phospholipid bilayer being on every single cell).
The Big Boys know this.
In my view, it's only a matter of time.
Yes, we need overall positive cash flow via Avid. Yes, we need an exosome test kit deal.
Small chicken wings.
When the Big Boys come, they won't come knocking. They'll come marching and breathing fire.
Best,
Joe Six
Hut, Novartis could buy PPHM for $12B
without a hiccup. $12B is pocket change to these guys.
$12B would give a pps of $240.
But the plot thickens.
The Big Boys so far who want anti-PD1's badly, and who HATE Merck's Keytruda and BMY's Opdivo:
JNJ
PFE
GILD
RHBBY (Roche)
AZN
ADR (Novartis)
Everyone of them is desperate for an anti-PD1. Now everyone knows that the I/O 2.0 paradigm is COMBO therapy. My question is combo with what?
Not CTLA-4. That's 2 downstreamers and results have been disappointing. 40% responders and very limiting autoimmune side effects: diabetes, lupus, pneumonitis, Crohn's colitis, etc.
Of course, do not forget Opdivo's serious stumble in August, 2016 with its NSCLC trial showing NO DIFFERENCE with chemotherapy.
MRK's stock jumped with that news, due to Keytruda.
So what's needed? Ask Wolchok. Jed wanted PS Blockade PRECISELY because he knows downstreamers can't do it alone.
Too many non-responders. Too many relapses (which the omnipresent commercials don't mention). Everytime I see an Opdivo commercial (you know, the one with the tall Opdivo Building), or a Keytruda ad (you know, the lung cancer woman survivor doing an interview, with makeup), I just have to smile.
Because I know what's needed. It's PS Blockade. Upstream conditioning so the downstreamers can contribute without the devastating side effects.
COMBO therapy. The future. AIMO.
Best,
Joe Six Pack
Right North, GILD may go for AZN and durvalumab
BMY might be too big for GILD to swallow, although they ARE sitting on a mountain of cash from their Hep C Solvaldi/Harvoni franchises.
Better for GILD to take AZN down with durvalumab. Then they come after us.
Remember, Anti-PD1 + PS blockade = Vegas.
Best,
Joe Six
Whoa. Both GILD and JNJ want BMS b/c of Opdivo
Anti-PD1 vicious dog-fight brewing.
Paul, better to hope it drops down so you can load back up
Yes, the RS was not cool, and it's has been a real downer.
But the science has not changed.
If the science does change, I'll be the first one out. And you'll hear it from me here on the Board.
Hang in there. You'll have your opportunity to get back in.
And when you do, I'll be buying as well.
Best,
Joe Six
Looks like Ronin is buying
Maybe something is coming.
Best,
Joe Six Pack
Do not despair Brothers
The past few days have been painful...and heavy. For everyone.
But starting Monday, for every $1B that PPHM might be valued for, the share price, (as of now), = $22. (based on 45 million O/S)
I know, I know, as long as they don't dilute much more.
Hopefully, Avid profits will put a crimp on the ATM.
But the question remains:
ARE Bavi, exosome test kit, PS biomarkers, and beta-bodies worth $1B?
If they are, then your stock price = $22.
I personally think the stock is worth a lot more than that. GILD bought Pharmhasset for $12B to move along their Hep C cure. It worked.
If GILD bought PPHM for the same $12B to move along I/O, PPHM's pps would be $264.
That pps would alleviate a few headaches around here.
Except we're not talking about a Hep C cure. We're talking about kicking cancer in the can-ola.
Probably worth more than $12 B. Particularly if Bavi can triple anti-PD1 responder footprints.
Worth a LOT more.
But, our patience is once again tested. We need an exosome deal, more institutional involvement (now closer to reality, if we go above $5), and advances on those NCCN trials that, in my view, are going to make Big Pharma go berserk.
I'm hanging tough, despite the heavy rainfall. Someday the sun will come out for us.
As for right now, I realize it's been a tough camping trip.
Best to all,
Joe Six Pack
Verdadero, Ronin got a nice haircut, too.
Wonder why.
Why in the world would you buy 26M+ shares, just to watch them turn into 3.7M?
That's a question no one here can answer, no matter what happens Monday.
Best,
Joe Six Pack
Today you saw a very calculated move to shake out weak hands
And it worked.
Tremendous bounce off $0.50, very very quickly, not allowing sellers to jump back in.
Very predictable. And an important lesson.
If the stock dips agains precipitously, BUY, don't sell.
Sellers today tried to short the stock, and looks like many got burned.
GLTAL,
Best,
Joe Six Pack
Nice post JNCJ - today's action has to make everyone wonder
How does a 7:1 RS PR drop the stock exactly ONE penny!!
We definitely have support. Always be ready to buy. Bargains can pop up at any time.
Like today.
Best,
Joe 6
Back up to $0.60 soon EOM
Yep. EOM
Ronin wants the weak hands out so they
can pick up more dirt cheap today.
Let this sucker go down to $0.29 (hopefully) so I can back up the truck.... TODAY.
Best,
Joe Six Pack
I doubt many here are selling right now
If everyone is convinced that the new PPS of $4.20 will crater, why not sell everything right now, and buy back more later?
LOL, because there's a CC next week and who knows...
I don't see the Board make-up changing much. The conversation goes on.
Funny how the pps is holding right now. Not many selling. Hmmm...strange. LOL
Best,
Joe Six Pack
PR most likely in AM before opening
Last minute means last minute.
Or, I guest they could make a PR Monday AM.
Either way, we'll have to wait.
I'm buying more tomorrow anyway.
Best,
Joe
Just trying to pass the time PW,
Just trying to pass the time.
Nervous day for everybody.
Good luck.
Best,
Joe
PW, 700K in one hour is pretty good
We usually don't do that in a day...
Lol
Best,
Joe
Buying spree before a supposed RS?
Unheard of.
Got a little dry powder - going to join in.
Best,
J6
Third possibility not yet discussed
What if PPHM got the NASDAQ extension and just left it at that?
What if the only news we get is that the extension was approved, and that's it.
Maybe NOTHING is coming except a PR citing the extension.
With all the non-disclosures and the tight-lipped IR staff, I think it's a distinct possibility.
Best to all,
Joe Six PACK
JC, that's why I've mentioned that it may not be the best time to sell.
Obviously, this is my view. But it's also the market's. We're up MORE than 10% over the past 10 days. (55.6 cents to 63.5 cents). And yet we're a DAY away from a supposed RS!
Usually you see the rats jumping off the Titanic when an RS looms. We're up more than 10%.
How did we get, by the way, from 0.28 to the high so far of today, 0.64?
Answer: Ronin. And a whole bunch of stubborn retailers.
Best,
Joe Six