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Supplements...How is it that companies can market products like these?
Is this a clear violation of Amarin's patents?
Note the marketing touts "manage triglycerides well" and "ideal for heart health"
https://shop.omegavia.com/products/omegavia-epa-500
Label expansion is one step. How soon will that lead to expanded coverage from insurance companies and medicare?
Anyone have answers about that?
I've nosed around 8chan some. Reddit is ok for some things. Also Voat. Yeah, there are a few crazies there, but I like to filter for truth myself, rather than trust others to do it for me.
then there's qanon.pub
Maybe BB isn't posting 'cause he's tired of this place treating people like children.
In a country with a 1st amendment, wouldn't it be great to have a place to share thoughts insights without worrying about rules and guidelines?
Free speech! I'm a fan. Censorship? Not so much.
Why do we spill so much ink about this clown?
Isn't it obvious someone is paying him to write half-truths and innuendo to try to justify shorting, keeping a lid on price, etc?
The playbook isn't new. With EXAS on the rise a few years ago Andrew Left of Citron lead the same type of campaign. If anyone frequented the yahoo board for EXAS you'll remember "denny". I tried to spam-jam his clap trap by calling him "denny the dummy" since most of his posts were obvious lies. Clearly just a paid-basher.
EXAS ceo called out Left on some tv interviews. He was a little more aggressive than our fine CEO in defending from the obviously fraudulent FUDsters.
Not sure the best defense from attacks from these criminals. Our adcom proved that even the finest "experts" in the field can easily misunderstand the key benefits of Vascepa, so casual observers in the SEC or day traders often look at biotech stocks as difficult to figure out.
Aggressive push back from the company would be great, but I think its obvious to anyone who does serious thinking they are full of cow poop. I'll try to ignore now.
It's a great day to be a long!
We're over the finish line with a very broad label from the FDA!!
Lots of cash in the coffers!
I mean this is Cardio Vascular disease prevention!
Price will follow. The high hurdles are cleared.
AMRN pre market volume very low so far, compared to Friday after hours trading. I wouldn't read too much into price with that low volume.
@jl Thanks...
Isn't it reasonable to presume that the EPA/AA ratio was improved, given that EPA levels were certainly increased?
Even if they didn't publish or measure it?
Jelis highlighted the EPA/AA ratio. Just incredible this hasn't been highlighted in REDUCE-IT.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24047614
@massulo52 thanks for the data
With what I've seen here at AMRN and previously at EXAS I'm sure big-money players have many tricks (some illegal some not) to manipulate stocks.
I called out the lies of some posters on the EXAS yahoo board and one of the posters there (probably paid FUD) threatened to sue folks who called them out.
The law firms who tried to file class-action suits based on the mineral oil placebo are another case-in-point of scare tactics likely designed to keep a lid on the share price. Why? Cui bono? (latin for who benefits?) Hedge funds who want to build a position. Big pharma who want to buy Amarin, or who stand to lose market share with competing therapies, or the dietary supplement industry.
But as we saw at the adcom, even so-called experts seem to miss the key facts of what makes Vascepa work. So it's not hard for these players to shade the truth and be credible to those who don't have deep knowledge of the subject.
I'm paying out of pocket, and I get the prescription filled at CVS. There was a little back and forth with my doctor and insurance company trying to see if United would cover it at some level. But they came back with a hard no.
So we went with me not filing insurance and paying out of pocket.
This was about 5 months ago.
The net result is I've been paying about $205 per month each month using the coupon.
@JL please help (or anyone else who knows)...
Making money is great but saving lives is greater.
I've seen discussions that the likely benefit of taking EPA is the improvement of the EPA/AA ratio. I've seen that the JELIS study cites this number.
In the REDUCE-IT study NEJM supplement index table 4, the increase of EPA in the control group over the placebo group is dramatic. But I don't see "EPA/AA ratio" discussed or cited.
The FDA label and much discussion focus on triglyceride levels. Is EPA/AA ratio more appropriate?
Why do I ask? Mainly for my health and my wife's. I have triglycerides at 140. My doc has already prescribed Vascepa for me.
My wife's lipids are different. Her triglycerides are low, but her LDL-c levels are high. Would Vascepa be appropriate? Or should we test EPA/AA level to find out?
Here is link to NEJM Reduce-it article supplementary index. In table 4 on page 38 see EPA levels in control and placebo group and note the dramatic change. How does this number relate to EPA/AA ratio? Is EPA/AA ratio cited elsewhere in REDUCE-IT results and discussions?
https://www.nejm.org/doi/suppl/10.1056/NEJMoa1812792/suppl_file/nejmoa1812792_appendix.pdf
AF was accused of working with short sellers by a Washington Post reporter about 5 years ago.
AF and his bosses (at the time at thestreet.com) vehemently denied the accusations.
Here's an article about the incident from the LA Times. The WAPO article is available online but requires a subscription. Many of his articles and negative comments are very timely coincidences if not collusion.
https://www.latimes.com/business/hiltzik/la-fi-mh-a-washington-post-columnist-takes-aim-at-shortsellers-but-misfires-20140929-column.html
I'm taking off-label now, and my insurance turned me down.
My triglycerides are about 140, overall cholesterol 190.
No other risk factors. Age 54, 6'1", 205lbs (so little overweight) BP is ok.
Anyways I pay $205 for monthly supply after coupon is applied.
I presume a certain body part of MRC is getting really sore.
BRAVE study still enrolling subjects.
Must be a veteran age 50-75, eligible for VA medical benefits.
I just talked on the phone with the research specialist. If you enroll, you may be taking Vascepa or you may be taking a placebo.
Living near Madison, WI would be helpful as occasional visits to the study sight are necessary.
https://www.adrc.wisc.edu/brave-study
Agree. The Bill Harris guy I think has ties to DS industry. Possible conflict of interest so he wants to favor products he can sell or be associated with (DHA)
Attia touts that he is clean, isn't swayed by taking money from sponsors. But the guy he interviews doesn't seem neutral.
They mention the great benefits of REDUCE-IT but just gloss over the great life-saving and health-improving benefits.
They get into the weeds about mechanism of action of fats, etc. But just miss the big picture of the benefits of EPA.
The track record of EPADEL in Japan, etc. screams for greater use of Vascepa in patients with elevated trigs (>135)
they FINALLY get to AMRN and Vascpepa at about the 59 minute mark.
Dr. Peter Attia podcast...with Bill Harris, Phd.
Dr. Attia focuses his medical practice on longevity and quality of life.
Dr. Harris is an expert on fats.
This deep-dive podcast gets into EPA, and references REDUCE-IT.
Just released today.
Thanks to my Med school student son Nick.
https://peterattiamd.com/billharris/
1. gia 20%
2. price above $16B? 98%
Larrybirdlegend Less frequent than many, but good info.
I don't disagree with your reasoning, but I think most traders would consider the gap filled if price just touches 18.
The intra-day high on 11/11 is 18.00. If traders could drive the price to that level, I wouldn't be surprised if the low would hold up close to that level (17.75, 17.90)
Yes, I do see much more price support at 16.90-17.
I might consider placing a buy at the 18 level, and another at 16.90 since support is heavier at 16.90.
Just saying I'd consider the gap filled at 18.
More chance to buy right at 20. Who knows if lower prices won't be available?
What a sh*t show. I very much detest the dishonesty of these schmucks.
Agree...too early for non-scientist trader to accurately interpret
twitter link from Viet le
Here you go #evaporate #epa #ipe #omega3 #aha19 pic.twitter.com/0fhyRndAdi
— Viet Le DMSc PA-C FACC FAHA HF-Cert (@VietHeartPA) November 18, 2019
Conclusions of EVAPORATE interim analysis (9 month data). #AHA19 pic.twitter.com/McJD53NRYd
— William Baker (@wbaker0621) November 18, 2019
plaque progression at 9 months slide
Plaque progression data at 9 months (interim). #AHA19 pic.twitter.com/NFsAIiemnc
— William Baker (@wbaker0621) November 18, 2019
outcomes
Primary outcomes of EVAPORATE woth icosapent At 9 months (interim analysis). #AHA19 pic.twitter.com/jyk1gxOaJd
— William Baker (@wbaker0621) November 18, 2019
new slide
Baseline characteristics pic.twitter.com/WChKBFjDNV
— William Baker (@wbaker0621) November 18, 2019
Looks like this guy is live tweeting the presentation
EVAPORATE study design, looking at plaque progression. pic.twitter.com/EhELgx01x8
— William Baker (@wbaker0621) November 18, 2019
I'd bet shady lawyers and dishonest short hedge funds are behind it.
Saw the same type of thing when EXAS was getting cologuard on the market.
Citron hedge fund Andrew Left had a big short position in EXAS and anyone with 10th grade reasoning skills could see the holes in his argument for the short.
Remember all the lawsuits after REDUCE-IT results were released related to mineral oil? It was all BS but seemed heavily coordinated.
Might just be a coordinated fear, uncertainty, and doubt campaign to put some damper on the share price so big pharma can keep some kind of lid on the price they gotta pay for the golden pill.
Liquid stent is good.
Most people know what a stent is for.
Veino-draino is catchy, but draino is a product name, so copyright would be an issue.
Good interview with Turtle
Re "trading" or "trend following"
Raf, it's a good question. We have the "miracle pill" "heart candy". Why not charge what it's worth?
Lot's of pressures. The pill is being sold right now, so the market is used to that price.
Also, almost all of the democrats want to socialize medicine. I'm sure the management would like to avoid any negative attention from demagogue politicians.
But hey, whatever net's more value for the company in the long run...I'm supportive.
There's a difference between a short-term trader and a trend follower.
A trend follower doesn't necessarily do fundamental analysis, but may be in a stock for a very long time.
For most of my stocks, I don't really care much what the company does but focus on the charts. Also look at revenue growth, earnings growth, that might lead to big moves.
Biotech is different in my book, because the binary events can cause crazy, sometimes unpredictable swings.
But with AMRN, since Reduce-it results especially, I have been convinced price success is a matter of time.
O'Neil's book "how to make money in stocks" is a key book. He outlines many principles. Among them, overall market have key effect on most stocks. Charts are a picture of supply and demand. A company needs to be experiencing growth for stock to move.
Another is "The Way of the Turtle: the secret methods that turned ordinary individuals into legendary traders"
My opinion is that these methods are useful tools, but investing/trading/speculating is a complicated business.
I bought and sold some AMRN back in 2010-2011 timeframe.
Although I believed the drug worked at the time, I didn't know in as much detail how great it was. Despite the potential of the drug, the FDA didn't open their door to success. If I had known more, maybe I wouldn't have sold but I would have been more frustrated.
As someone who likes to pick stocks, at some point one has to know when holding a company with a great product is unproductive. Some great products are in companies wiht poor management. Or subject to forces outside their control.
In the time since I sold AMRN in 2011, I've had some big winners in JAZZ, BABA, EXAS, ADBE, others. Certainly taken some losses also.
Kinda has AMRN on my radar and bought a small amount in 2018, loaded up after REDUCE-IT.
Since then, I believe it's the surest thing in the market and I'll hold a big position in it until its bought or I think it's overvalued.
Raf, re pricing
There's a balance.
I agree with you that if the main beneficiaries of low prices are insurance
companies then they should raise prices.
But there are other considerations.
First priority is to expand the market. Raising prices before huge sales ramp would be premature.
As JL has argued, keeping prices low also deters generic competitors. Of course, Vascepa has exclusivity for a time, but if they are have a majority of the suppliers tied up because volume is so high (due to quality of efficacy and low cost) competitors are detered.
Good questions for JT, via Elizabeth. He has answered, but I think he's got other priorities right now.
And chance is better than 50-50 (imo) that an executive for big pharma is gonna make future pricing decisions anyway.
larrybirdlegend recommended listening to cost-effective presentation live.
He didn't provide a link, and I couldn't find one when looking.
I'm not sure that's a talk I'd want to sit through on a Saturday morning, especially after listening to much of the adcom.
I guess an actuary could get excited about those details.
Re price increase, I'm not an economist, but a price increase driven by increased demand should be all positive.
But if price increase is partially due to constrained supply, I would think suppliers would also be increasing their prices to Amarin.
The revenue number goes up, but the costs also go up. That might dampen market cap increase somewhat.
Nice problems to have...but other sources of EPA may need to be explored.
Getting ahead of ourselves...
But you lose big if a buyout is announced before then. Unlikely...Or great evaporate results?
I'm not in the mood to cap my profits for some income, at this point.
It'll probably work out for you, but the risk of missing the big profits is a significant risk at this point, imo.
Boom! Cracking through resistance!