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To the legal group, I’d appreciate any thoughts on these points:
a) Regarding Bruce Bernstein, isn’t it reasonable to believe that a seasoned individual such as this would join IDCC in a key position having an excellent idea as to where the company was headed? By this, I mean it seems illogical to believe that he would have joined without having an excellent idea as to the arb results and beyond.
b) Do you believe Bruce was hired to be the post-arb “closer?”
c) Knowing that F&J is an excellent legal firm, what do you believe they are stating to IDCC? By this I mean have they given percentages of win possibilities? In other words, how accurate of an assessment do you think F&J has been able to give IDCC with regards to the arb outcome?
TIA
Jim, I very much appreciate your input as usual. My only question/comment is related to a settlement possibility. While there are numerous scenarios and statements of no negotiations, isn’t this likely the most optimal time for Nokia to settle on the past and the future? Assuming the panel has agreed with us on the trigger, when would there be a better time than now? Perpetual litigation and allowing others to determine your rates wouldn’t seem to be a very intelligent business approach by Nokia, although I realize that can be debated.
IMO Weekend Musings: I’m thinking out loud for a moment regarding the public relations individual at Nokia—you might really have to earn your money shortly. Yes IDCC could have some big downside with a possible loss, but there could be an IDCC win with continuing lawsuits. So you have to wonder about this Nokia PR guy. I mean how is he/she going to spin a significant loss to their investors, the local populace, and industry-wide colleagues? You mean little IDCC beat you? You had to pay out how much? Was it that much in interest and penalties? And you couldn’t come to any agreement beforehand? Now why is that? Yes, this person will have their hands full, especially when the press begins to get wind of what could become a major story. The mainstream media will have a field day with the “David vs.Goliath” analogy, and then the “baby q” verbiage will be resurrected like a phoenix. Shortly thereafter, the questions will rise about Nokia’s leadership, their board’s leadership, and maybe even about the effectiveness of incentive stock options. Yes, this poker game is high stakes and there have been only a few blinks and twitches so far. Picture Jorma standing before a battery of cameras and recorders. Somehow I envision daily follow-ups, along with stories of the “underdog” being quoted. Will Nokia’s stock tank—nope. And I’m sure they’ll quickly add they had the amount covered, thus it won’t impact their profitability. But many times an image can be irreparably harmed, or at the very least have long term effects. Last picture—think of the WSJ doing a week-long series on patent infringement, with foreign OEM’s taking advantage of American companies. And don’t forget interviews with Congressional leaders regarding whether or not there’s a level playing field out there. Add in the Europe vs. America linkage and it sells well via numerous media formats. You can almost envision some beads of perspiration glistening on the PR individual’s face as the camera lights are turned on.
OT: This website is of particular interest to those with young children. Check out how many predators are in your area.
http://sex-offenders-list.com/nar/ga.asp
OT: Fwiw, this website has a people search engine. If you’re interested, type in your own name and see what comes up. Notice what you get for additional money in the background check.
http://www.zabasearch.com/
Here’s a perspective on why ethics and capitalism go hand in hand:
I’ve got that Toyota feeling. In fact I love them so much that I bought a “loaded” Lexus about five years ago with some special financing. There was no upfront money or payments until year five where there was one balloon payment. Well, it has come time (5 years), I didn’t pay, and they’ve contacted me requesting payment. After some questioning, I finally admitted that I never really intended to pay anything. Yes, I make good money and the car has worked admirably in all conditions, and it’s true that I signed a legal document. But this payment is so large, it’s ridiculous! When they finally threatened to sue, we both agreed to arbitrate the case. So I’ve made this proposal—my whole family will agree to buy more Toyotas from them (at a substantial discount), plus get them serviced at their facilities, in exchange for a 50% reduction of the money I owe. Isn’t this fair?
J@mywordmeansnothing.com
Mschere: Do you believe that IDCC is a likely potential takeover candidate? If so, what would you see as the most likely scenario?
TIA.
Jim: If you were shorting, would you really pick this stock knowing the risk? Let's say it's now Friday and nothing has occurred--would they likely cover in the afternoon?
One question on institutional money--if this turns out well, would somebody like Heartland most likely sell on the jump, or be buying on the knowledge they have? Your thoughts, please.
TIA.
L2V: Let's says that everything you stated will come true. If this were the case, wouldn't it be possible/likely that Nokia would take a stake in Interdigital (i.e. 5%)?
Is there anything else besides the 3G rate that Nokia would be focusing on?
TIA.
This post is dedicated to the IHUB family who occasionally bickers as well as the ones who may feel slightly paranoid over some of the posts/scenarios.
IMO: Toby Keith has had a good recording out for awhile, entitled “I Love This Bar.” The gist of this song is that everybody loves to gather in this bar – businessmen, rednecks, lovers, ex-military, short skirts, young and old, sports aficionados, prostitutes, etc. Substitute “IHUB” and you get a real collection of street-smart traders, WS experts, straight-shooters, technical analysts, momentum players, pumper-dumpers, con men, high rollers, high techs, low techs, and even some average investors. My point—of course there are agendas here. Shorts are angling for you to sell*, while longs may tell you it’s a screaming buy*. Rumors are sometimes cloaked as news via spin, and multiple aliases can be a mystery. This board is excellent in many respects, but if you aren’t very skeptical, I can only wish you the best. The interesting part of this board is that you’ll really never know who is aligned with whom and/or why, what’s real and what isn’t. I’ve enjoyed Jim’s boards for a long time and am glad he’s volunteering his time and efforts to referee. But there’s no doubt that it’s a difficult position, knowing the numerous views, backgrounds, “masks,” and hidden agendas.
I’ll give you just a few brief examples into why I’m skeptical at times. Let me see—there was my married minister who was the paragon of our community—then caught in the arms of a lady in the choir (oops). Or how about the lady who told the entire office about her wonderful husband for 15 straight years—oh, it turns out she never had one. And…she was embezzling as well. And then there was my account friend who was told what a great asset she was and that she should just sign some papers—only to turn out they were fraudulent and the feds moved in shortly thereafter with arrests (she left beforehand). Then there was that straight shooting middle class manager—who was wife swapping. Oh, and how about that top level manager explaining to us about corporate rules on gifts,etc.—after sending it out he went to the Super Bowl on an all expense paid trip. And I also remember the manager who spoke confidentially that the real way to make money—was to lie on company expense statements. Or there was one of those anonymous moments when I was on a plane and the professional businesswoman beside me explained that of course she would go to bed with someone if it would get her ahead. And then there was that good buddy of mine—who grabbed my rear—surprise! There was also the time where money was being collected for a colleague’s spouse’s funeral—it was stolen. And on and on…
Hey, there are some really great posters out here who give a wealth of information, and I thank you. For instance those who never had a chance to talk to Mickey Britt missed a real character, even though some of his posts may have been shall I say “slanted.” And I consider it a privilege to have even talked to Rookie—quite an interesting and decent guy. There are plenty of you good people out there as well, so consider yourself thanked for whatever you’ve contributed and still do. I only hope that if you’re one of the straight shooters that you sift through some of the information with a jaded eye, knowing that this dark alley may have vermin in it. And if we’re lucky enough to make some significant dollars, I hope that you give some to an excellent cause of your choice. Best to you longs—hopefully this long trip is about to make a good turn.
*although not always
Hopefully some good news will take care of any short term valuation issues, and then let's watch it grow. Just a thought – perhaps IDCC has been approached already. If OEM’s do indeed benefit the most through cross licensing, wouldn’t some of these manufacturer’s consider a purchase now rather than wait for the price to rise? Note that a purchase could be in the range of a piece of the company (i.e. 5%) to buying it outright.
Regarding valuation, I’ll be intrigued to see where the price is pegged, after legitimately good news. If/when trading is halted and an announcement made, how will institutions then re-estimate the value of the stock? Will they add assumptions about new “likely” licensees into their estimates, or wait until they occur one by one? It may be a wild ride shortly…
Jim:
Just to play devil’s advocate, from Jorma's point of view...
If I’m Nokia why would I settle with Interdigital? What is the upside? I never intended to pay anything anyway, ethics aren’t an issue, and I’m personally angry that I got caught in their contractual web. I’ve announced to the world I’m attempting to cap royalties and set the tone for any negotiations on any future IPR claims; I won’t agree with anything that isn’t in the realm of what I deem is reasonable (i.e. very little). My war chest is brimming, and I’ll fight you on every legal front for as long as it takes to wreck your little firm. If I’ve discovered that Ericcson may have a contingent 3G contract with IDCC (including rate), the worst I could do is get the same rate, thus competitively I’m not at a disadvantage. Any discount that was lost was easily made up by the sinking dollar, and I’ll continue to use public relations to denounce companies such as IDCC as roadblocks to economic success. Besides, if the arbitration amount is announced, and I’ve now decided to make a comprehensive agreement, then I know that IDCC will still gladly come up with a plan to satisfy me (i.e. engineering agreement, partial stake in the co., etc.). Therefore, is there a rush to settle? Why should I not wait, then possibly contest the findings, and continue on with the legal fronts, elongating this process for years? The longer I wait, perhaps I'll settle for pennies on the dollar...
In the long run, this may be a foolish corporate strategy, but in the mid-term the worst they’re likely to do is state that they have the arbitration amount covered, that it won’t affect the stock price, and this decision is why “taxing” entities such as IDCC are bad for business.
Your thoughts? I’d also appreciate anybody else’s point of view taking a look from Nokia’s perspective, not ours.
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I’m still predicting an 11th hour settlement myself. HG and Rip's removal & timing can't be a coincidence and are likely tied to pending negotiations, somehow.
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Btw – Glad you made it through your heart attack, and regret hearing about that tacky comment. Here’s hoping that if we’re all able to make a significant amount of money, that some of it goes to good causes of your choice. Take care.
L2V: Your input is excellent as usual and very appreciated.
*Knowing this entire situation and the way Nokia has acted, do you believe IDCC will simply wait this out, receive the ruling, and then continue to meet in court with Nokia while waiting for others to license for 3G? Or do you believe we’ll hear about Nokia being an honorable company in the near future with a compromised settlement (i.e. $, rate + long term r/d)? Listening to the legal experts, both sides must have a pretty good feel for how this will go…
*Looking back on Motorola, while this was an obviously bad outcome, perhaps it forced IDCC to craft the Nokia contract the way they did, thus in a perverse way it actually helped guarantee a better future.
*fwiw: The last time I talked with Janet, I came away both impressed and of the belief that this company was prepared.
*OT: What exactly did you market, if you don’t mind mentioning? TIA.
Corp: Thanks, I honestly appreciate the information.
Monterey2000: Do note that Sunbelt Software, the maker of Counter-Spy is a Dell Security partner.
http://support.dell.com/support/topics/global.aspx/support/security/security?c=us&cs=19&l=en...
OT: Spyware and Identity Theft
To all the longs, here’s some information relating to spyware and identity theft you might think about. Recently I ran Microsoft’s anti-spy beta program, Spybot’s Search & Destroy, McAfee’s Internet Security Suite, and SBC/Yahoo DSL’s anti-spyware programs. My point is that after all these, Counter-Spy then found an additional 10 pieces of spyware on my PC. One of the programs it discovered was a commercial key logger, which can attempt to detect your keystrokes, find critical data, and even begin to remotely control your pc.
I would take a few moments to look at these articles if you have the time. Recently I read where 91% of all PC’s were infected with spyware, so the odds are pretty heavy that’s applicable to most pc users. Let me add a few bullet points:
*Don’t leave any critical data on your pc—remember that it might be detected.
*Consider multiple anti-spyware programs, so that what one doesn’t catch the other does.
*Realize that just because there’s a cost for software or advertisements doesn’t mean they’re good. Take a moment and compare some “brand” names to the results and lesser known pieces of software.
*Watch out for the fake “Phishing” web sites or e-mails asking for your data.
*If your pc begins to be somewhat slower than normal, do the obvious first such as removing any temporary internet files plus defrag’ing. If it’s still slow, you may have multiple pieces of spyware slowing you down. Look for these types of red flags.
*My McAfee allowed me to monitor the # of probes/attacks from other sources; last month 2700 were blocked, including some Trojan spyware.
“10 Million people have fallen prey to some form of identity theft in the past five years.” - Federal Trade Commission Estimate
“$1400 average amount victims pay to clear their names.” - 2003 Identity Theft Resource Center Study
“600 hours average time victims spend to clear their names and credit.” – 2003 Identity Theft Resource Center
Dell was recently quoted as saying 12% of their tech service calls were related to spyware.
ID Theft Center.org – some interesting information relating to identity theft
http://www.idtheftcenter.org/index.shtml
Download of Spybot Search & Destroy - free
http://www.pcworld.com/downloads/file_description/0,fid,22262,00.asp
PC World’s Spystoppers Article on Spyware, a test they made, what works and doesn’t
http://www.pcworld.com/reviews/article/0,aid,119572,00.asp
PC World’s Top Two Recommendations: CounterSpy and Spy Sweeper
http://www.pcworld.com/reviews/article/0,aid,119572,pg,2,00.asp
PC Spyware Article and what they recommend – March ’05 – Spyware Eliminator and Spyware Doctor rated the highest, with Spy Sweeper #3
http://www.adwarereports.com/mt/archives/000004.html?gcid=S14084x005-Ad2&KEYWORD=spyware%20progr...
Is it possible that both Nokia and IDCC can/will jointly request to see the ICC findings on 03-31, yet not have anything announced? Legally, can this be done? You’d likely have serious negotiations commence or be finalized shortly thereafter as both parties would understand the precise magnitude as to what was at stake. The ICC would never have to announce any findings, both parties would make it look like a victory in their press releases, and an agreement would be announced prior to the May deadline. .
That’s a very good point/question. Perhaps it will take two months to review due to the magnitude of the case, dollars involved, legal issues, etc., but I doubt that. I would think that 03-31 is essentially the drop-dead date for any settlement between these parties. Perhaps some of the legal talent can address whether they believe a last minute settlement is possible (i.e. going up the stairs of the courthouse and coming to a negotiated settlement.). Do remember past Nokia comments stating they would work around Qualcomm’s IPR (didn’t happen), then signing.
I have one question for you related to Teecee’s theory about multiple company negotiations going on related to all G's—could this be true that there are a number of companies talking and attempting to resolve all the issues simultaneously? Would it not explain why this is taking so long? What are your thoughts on this possibility? TIA.
Mschere, this is the post of the day for me. Strictly my opinion: This exemplifies the “smoke and mirrors” that Nokia uses to explain away legalized theft, all the while enveloping itself in some sort of moral superiority charade.
“Hard-ball” business is one thing, reneging on a legal contract isn’t hard-ball, however--it’s simply corrupt. I wonder how many other companies want to work with Nokia as their reputation and ethics follow it throughout this industry? Any engineers out there who want to work for free? I believe you’re seeing the result of their secular society where whatever you can get away with is acceptable, and the law is the ultimate and only guiding principle. i.e. “Does is really mean is?” Capitalism in a strictly secular society yields what we’re seeing right now. There is a reason the Asians will takeover market share from the Europeans--they’ve learned that ethics is not simply a moral issue, but smart business and effective capitalism.
Flashback: Remember Corpgold stating that we may find some of our enemies will become our friends, and some of our friends will become our enemies. I wonder what he knew when…
Settlement? I remember years ago at a small dinner party giving views on whether fighting would break out in the first Gulf War. My stated theory then was that Iraq knew they couldn’t win and understood they were facing an overwhelming force, therefore they would back down and fighting wouldn’t occur. It wasn’t logical to simply be slaughtered; as it turned out, logic had nothing to do with it, but the stubbornness of Iraq’s primary decision maker did. Thus, reasonableness, facts, logic, etc. all went down the drain. My point is that Jorma’s mindset may be so twisted that significant discussions may never have been pursued to date. I for one am doubting whether a settlement will now occur, and that may not be a bad thing. My personal guess is that IDCC understood the human debris they were dealing with and now desire to send a message to the industry. Qualcomm had it right a long time ago when they passionately defended payment of their IPR throughout the world. Who knows though, perhaps we’ll again read about us dealing with another firm of integrity.
Malko, if I'm Nokia and faced with some potentially very bad press over this arbitration, it could a) cost Jorma his position and b) have a mini sell-off at Nokia. This combination could then bring up questions about Nokia's tactics (i.e. lawsuits), through some bona fide investigative reporting. Many have stated here what IDCC legitimately has to lose, but if I'm Nokia, I may be making that inevitable call regarding an agreement with IDCC to minimize this damage. How would this look to the investment community if the final judgment were to come down hard on Nokia? The negative press and lost valuation could cost them dearly. Therefore, do you foresee a settlement sometime (i.e. weeks) after tomorrow's summations are finished, or do you think it will go the distance?
On the other hand, if I'm IDCC and truly have the upper hand, would I be taking any calls?
fyi: There's a very good article regarding Intellectual Property and the International Marketplace by Raymond J. Keating -- Chief Economist of Small Business & Enterpreneurship Council at www.sbecouncil.org Reference Analysis #17 January 2005. I know others have discussed how to copy and paste a pdf, but I don't remember how that was stated.
http://www.sbecouncil.org/media/pdf/SBSC_policy_series_17_-_IP4(2).pdf
Loop, I've heard from a lawyer here in Houston that around 85-90% of all cases end up being negotiated, thus not going to trial. Is there any historical data to suggest what the % of negotiated settlements there are in arbitration cases such as these?
Malko:
Did you foresee the ica taking this length of time to resolve the Nokia/IDCC arbitration?
Based on the hearings, timing, etc., I take it that you don't believe a settlement is likely prior to next year? Correct?
Thanks in advance.
Sunday Musings: Strictly a fwiw from a long-time investor--
*One of the best posts I read was from someone who stated to the effect that if all the posters were unmasked what it would reveal? While I enjoy this board, you have to question what is real, what is not real, how is it tainted, today’s slant, etc. Between the option and momentum players, promoters who are selling and bashers who are buying, I believe you should consider it what it is, a message board filled with all different agendas. Good luck on finding the truth…
*In the end, who really was credible? Well, I have read and enjoy many of the posters, and give my golden trophy to Tom Carpenter. When the entire board was counting untold millions and billions, he called it correctly. You’ll notice that he also doesn’t have an unrealistic # right now, but does consider this a buying opportunity. Some have lauded analysts, many haven’t. He’s credible and I still believe that he somehow can filter/surmise good information out of the IR legalese. I would give a runner-up to Data Rox for forcing reality into board discussions.
*My view of Nokia’s arbitration harangue is that if you go back and read the if’s, and’s, or’s, etc. from Interdigital’s declaration, you’ll see it as negotiations. They will come to the table, sooner rather than later. How much will Interdigital give in? Well, forget getting 1 ½% for 3G, let’s hope for 1%. Do I believe that Nokia’s bellicose nature will yield dollars? Yes, ultimately it will reduce their royalty payments and they’ll still take their discount, thus Jorma will accomplish what he wanted, and we’ll ultimately get contracts for 2G & 3G, albeit less than what we’d like. I also simply don’t believe a former SEC individual (HG) would deliberately misstate comments either. As to why Nokia acted so harshly, I believe it’s part of their SOP, and the ends justify the means.
*How big of a deal is this entire situation to Nokia? Well, go to the SI board and see how many posts you read about it. In the scheme of things, we simply don’t count. Personally, that’s okay, and I like our niche, as long as it yields revenue.
*My t/a award goes to GE_Jim, who in many cases called it correctly as he was buying or selling. If you analyze his statements, he’s actually fairly conservative in his approach. Btw – If you look recently, the stochastics indicator crossed 20 on 08/11 at 14.24, and you’ve noticed we’re above 17. The stochastics just went above 80 on 08-21 (83). Watch out for a drop if we then cross below 80. We’ll likely follow the market closely unless significant news hits.
*Everybody has a prediction about tomorrow’s statement. Mine is that it will be stated from Ericcson and Interdigital together, or at the very least similar statements since they’re both involved, and hopefully before the bell. Also, I’m guessing you’ll see a “business-like” response, nothing bellicose coming out of IDCC, essentially stating that progress has been made with Nokia. It’s in everybody’s best interest to tone the dispute down. This could/should reinforce the institution’s beliefs, thus causing a mini upsurge of a couple of points. All TBD’s..
*To Desert Dweller, Loophole, Mschere, Data Rox, and Ziploc’s of the world, thanks for your regular insightful commentaries, as well as numerous others. They’re very much appreciated. To all those who contribute so much to Jim Lur’s board with expertise (and without vulgarity) it is appreciated.
*I’m still long and purchased an additional 1500 shares. Jim, I view your being out as a contrarian indicator to get in. TBD on who is right.
Best to all,
Thanksformusic
Several years ago, I believe that Nokia stated unequivocably that they would not be paying Qualcomm any royalties. Later on, an announcement was made stating that they came to an agreement with them. Do you remember about how long that interlude was (i.e. 4 months)? Also, do you think in this latest case with IDCC that this is simply SOP with Nokia trying to minimize their cost structure?
Thanks for your past input, it's appreciated.
To GE Jim: I just noticed my exponential average indicator said to close out any short position, and begin entering long after today's close. Would you believe this is a temporary condition -- i.e. the cc is good news, stock spikes and you sell, then wait for the next dip and buy back? Or can this become a gradual climb back without substantive news?
Based on your after May thesis, it looks like there may be a seasonal spike around October.
Ronnie, I'm somewhat puzzled why this story hasn't been more publicized. It's nothing short of a saga, filled with the underdog vs. goliath, America vs. Europe, and "smoke filled rooms." Any ideas why the press hasn't picked up on this more? I realize we're small potatoes in the scheme of things, but Hollywood would absolutely love this kind of story. Can't you just see Michael Douglas as one of the attorneys for instance...
And if Teecee really were able to contact his senator (?), I'd love to hear if he got any response.
Danny, thanks for a very good post as usual. JMO: Doesn't Nokia have a considerable downside within the industry by utilizing these types of tactics? How many other corporations will go out of their way to not work with them, when you see such belligerent behavior? You can call it hardball negotiations, but it's essentially unethical to not pay for services agreed to and rendered. Yes, our little KoP has been severely hit, but I would think that Nokia may have hurt its reputation with people in their own industry. Arrogance can come at a real price and words really do have meaning. Who in the future will sign a meaningful contract with them and believe they will be fully paid, in timely manner, with little or no difficulty?
Thanksformusic
OT: One question concerning the XM SkyFi setup--Isn't Delphi the only model that is transferrable? If not, what brand of radio would you recommend? The reason I ask is that I've been looking into XM for weeks, listening at their web site, and talking to people who have it (they concur with you).
TIA
OT: One question concerning the XM SkyFi setup--Isn't Delphi the only model that is transferrable? If not, what brand of radio would you recommend? The reason I ask is that I've been looking into XM for weeks, listening at their web site, and talking to people who have it (they concur with you).
TIA
Alley: A few questions/comments:
*The IBD rule of thumb on losses is to close them out around 8%. If you were short and the stock were to jump on news from Nokia/Samsung, how much covering would you anticipate? I’ve heard that some of the shorts can be adamant, stick to their rules, wait for a pullback, etc. Having said that, there’s a fine line between being strong in your beliefs and financially foolish; therefore I would have to believe that a good percent of those five million (est.) shares would cover upon the news. What are your thoughts on timing, % of loss, and the estimated covering you would expect? In saying this, I’m aware that some individuals and institutions may take the quick profit, thus (possibly) allowing shorts to cover at a slight discount after the initial jump. The obvious other side to the equation is the possibility of some quick additional coverage, with even greater institution purchases. Would you believe the professional would adhere to rules and cover before individuals would?
*Assuming you were strictly trading and not a buy/hold individual, is there any reason to believe this could break out on the upside of the price channel index without significant news?
*Market in general – Do you see any corollary between the Japanese stock market bubble and today’s Dow? Any thoughts on a mini-bubble similar to a few years ago (i.e. Ask Jeeves)?
*Comment: I very much appreciate your objective analysis and demeanor that you present to the board.
Strictly my view of the present conditions:
IDCC is essentially oversold, but may still have downside to around 22 1/2. The stochastic indicator has (imo) given the initial signal for an upward turn-around. I watch for Aroon and MACD indicators to validate any real change, which hasn't occurred yet.
This stock follows the commodity channel index closely, which still gives a short reading. Note that this is short term and can change on a dime.
Any upward movement would likely be stopped just under 29 without fundamental news; volume remains normal.
While the market is improving, one of the advisories I receive is presently warning of a bearish turn. If you see institutions beginning to take profits (distribution), you'll see the entire market pull back, which would hold back both timing and any upward movement for Interdigital.
I hope this helps.
-Thanksformusic
GE Jim: OT Strictly a market question -- Do you see the current market conditions as a) a mini bubble in a bear market b) beginnings of a slow ramp upward, essentially a precursor to an improved economy or c) a different interpretation than a or b. fwiw: so far, the VIX appears to have been wrong, somewhat of a rarity. Your thoughts?
Thanksformusic
This speaks volumes about the options issue and lets you know where some of the smart money voted. Danny Detail has stated for a long time to listen and watch what the institutions do, that they are a key to success, etc. Well, I agree and the comments and actions are duly noted.
Thanksformusic
I appreciate your efforts and voted all shares no. Please retain the civil attitude you've taken.
Thanksformusic
Danny: What is your assessment of IDCC's current relationship to the institutional community? You've made comments in the past regarding sell-side analysts, and we've grown to prox. 30% of the stock being owned by institutions. Is it fair to say that efforts were made and that they've been successful? Should IDCC be doing anything else to attain greater following? I'm assuming that other analysts are "playing it safe" and waiting until significant money hits the bank before giving a recommendation--correct? Knowing these #'s, to what degree are we on major money's "radar screen?"
Your thoughts and input are appreciated...
Jim: First off thanks for all that you've done throughout the years. I followed your efforts back in the Yahoo board all the way to here. And I appreciate you e-mailing the latest report to me.
I'll let GE_Jim answer give his own answer as he can do so quite eloquently; I'll only speak for myself. For most investments, I hunt for companies with strong fundamentals, usually screened by IBD in the +85% range. After that, I check the t/a to decide where there is an appropriate time to invest. Do I decide strictly on t/a? No. Does it assist in timing? Yes. Keep in mind that even if you don't follow t/a, there's a legion of institutions and experts that do. I'm not pretending to be in their league, but there are times when it's good to get a glimpse of what they are seeing. In the case of IDCC, I noticed the money flow index dropping recently along with some other negative indicators, sold some shares at a profit, and am now hoping to buy them back a little lower. Everybody here gives their opinions and this is strictly mine. Am I bullish for the future? Yes, that's why I read what's on this board.
I've been in IDCC for quite a number of years and continue to hold a good core amount, because I like others don't know when significant news will hit. Will I trade some, though? Yes, I will and hopefully can increase my overall shares. You're welcome to ignore any t/a thoughts. That's why there's chocolate...
Good post as usual, and it's interesting to see your insight. fwiw -- Here's the t/a that I see:
Short term still shows bearish indicators. The stochastic oscillator is oversold and aroon negative is up. Three black candles in a row have also occurred, and the last MACD signal was a sell signal as well. Directional indicators also show being bearish. Two trading indicators that I follow show being short from 04/02 and 04/08 respectively.
Having said that, both intermediate and long term indicators are bullish. I checked Investor's Business Daily today to see how they would rate IDCC and it was a 95 overall, an A. They showed us to be the overall 1st out of 71 stocks in technical ranking, and also gave us a relative strength rating in our industry group of A+.
In other words, if you aren't trading, the picture remains good.
Question/comment for you -- A broker friend of mine picked Tuesday as a low point for the S&P, then back up. Your thoughts?
Postyle - a request
Many of us who have been long time holders of Interdigital respect your opinions and knowledge. I'd like to request that you give us your "state of the company," or perhaps where you see this company headed in the next year. I recognize that there are numerous variables and unknown factors out there, plus a number of individuals that will try to dissect every word with debate and/or divisiveness. Having said that, your voice has been one of reason and logic, and I would be very interested and appreciative of your opinions as to where you see us headed.
TIA if you have the time or inclination.
I concur with those comments. Numerous members of this board have stated and re-stated their questioning of this corp.'s ability to transform itself into a larger cap type of company. If you are unable to think in that realm, your most likely "quick fix" would be to sell at a profit and walk away. With insiders selling at these levels, I find it hard to believe they are thinking ahead in a strategic plan to achieve maximum shareholder value (i.e. +100pps). I hope I'm wrong, though.