Sunday Musings: Strictly a fwiw from a long-time investor--
*One of the best posts I read was from someone who stated to the effect that if all the posters were unmasked what it would reveal? While I enjoy this board, you have to question what is real, what is not real, how is it tainted, today’s slant, etc. Between the option and momentum players, promoters who are selling and bashers who are buying, I believe you should consider it what it is, a message board filled with all different agendas. Good luck on finding the truth…
*In the end, who really was credible? Well, I have read and enjoy many of the posters, and give my golden trophy to Tom Carpenter. When the entire board was counting untold millions and billions, he called it correctly. You’ll notice that he also doesn’t have an unrealistic # right now, but does consider this a buying opportunity. Some have lauded analysts, many haven’t. He’s credible and I still believe that he somehow can filter/surmise good information out of the IR legalese. I would give a runner-up to Data Rox for forcing reality into board discussions.
*My view of Nokia’s arbitration harangue is that if you go back and read the if’s, and’s, or’s, etc. from Interdigital’s declaration, you’ll see it as negotiations. They will come to the table, sooner rather than later. How much will Interdigital give in? Well, forget getting 1 ½% for 3G, let’s hope for 1%. Do I believe that Nokia’s bellicose nature will yield dollars? Yes, ultimately it will reduce their royalty payments and they’ll still take their discount, thus Jorma will accomplish what he wanted, and we’ll ultimately get contracts for 2G & 3G, albeit less than what we’d like. I also simply don’t believe a former SEC individual (HG) would deliberately misstate comments either. As to why Nokia acted so harshly, I believe it’s part of their SOP, and the ends justify the means.
*How big of a deal is this entire situation to Nokia? Well, go to the SI board and see how many posts you read about it. In the scheme of things, we simply don’t count. Personally, that’s okay, and I like our niche, as long as it yields revenue.
*My t/a award goes to GE_Jim, who in many cases called it correctly as he was buying or selling. If you analyze his statements, he’s actually fairly conservative in his approach. Btw – If you look recently, the stochastics indicator crossed 20 on 08/11 at 14.24, and you’ve noticed we’re above 17. The stochastics just went above 80 on 08-21 (83). Watch out for a drop if we then cross below 80. We’ll likely follow the market closely unless significant news hits.
*Everybody has a prediction about tomorrow’s statement. Mine is that it will be stated from Ericcson and Interdigital together, or at the very least similar statements since they’re both involved, and hopefully before the bell. Also, I’m guessing you’ll see a “business-like” response, nothing bellicose coming out of IDCC, essentially stating that progress has been made with Nokia. It’s in everybody’s best interest to tone the dispute down. This could/should reinforce the institution’s beliefs, thus causing a mini upsurge of a couple of points. All TBD’s..
*To Desert Dweller, Loophole, Mschere, Data Rox, and Ziploc’s of the world, thanks for your regular insightful commentaries, as well as numerous others. They’re very much appreciated. To all those who contribute so much to Jim Lur’s board with expertise (and without vulgarity) it is appreciated.
*I’m still long and purchased an additional 1500 shares. Jim, I view your being out as a contrarian indicator to get in. TBD on who is right.
Best to all,
Thanksformusic
AI
