Marie Curie 74 TC1
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I am not an expert but from my research the oil price quoted by Bloomberg and
Marketwatch is the future contract price (I think for 1 month delivery but I could
be wrong). Javier Blas is probably quoting the spot oil price, which is the
price per barrel if you buy oil at this instant and take delivery immediately.
The oil market is in contango (price going down) vs backwardation (price going up).
I used the opportunity to sell stocks. I am now 95% cash. Most of my money
is in IRA or Roth IRA. For example I bought RDS.B in the low 50s years ago, I sold
them in the mid 30s yesterday, waiting for the price to drop to the 20s
before I buy again. I still lose money but I will end up with more shares.
RDS-A vs RDS-B
The mystery deepens. I mostly have RDS-B because of the dividend tax. I read
from reputable source about the dividend tax being phased out Jan '20 so I
started a small position in RDS-A after Jan '20.
Well today I got the dividend and RDS-A dividend is still 15% less than RDS-B.
Tomorrow I am going to convert all my A shares into B shares, no big deal for me.
I follow Brexit since the 2016 referendum because my in-laws are British
and we go there almost every year so I check the pound/dollar rate daily
as a matter of habit. Even though the pound loses a lot vs the euro, especially
the pound/euro exchange swinged a lot during Theresa May tenure to push for
the Brexit vote in parliament, the difference between A and B shares stayed
the same and both types of shares moved in unison with oil price. So the
ADS seems to be immune to currency exchange rate between pound/euro. Your
theory is about the best explanation there is for now.
I have some DO deep sea oil driller. As expected after the price war announced
by SA, the week of Mar 9 to Mar 13 was a disaster with DO hitting 1.22.
However on Friday Mar 13 DO went up by a lot high 3s and have been trading
between 2 and 3 for the last 2 days. Strange. Its prospects is not better
than before at all as oil exploration is being cut back at sea (and on
land too though that does not affect DO).
Royal Dutch Shell as its name implies consists of the RDS.A (Dutch side) and
RDS.B (British side).
For a long time RDS.B sells at a slight premium to RDS.A as the British
does not tax the dividend while the Dutch taxes the dividend at 15% rate.
Come January 2020 the Dutch phased out the tax on dividend but RDS.B still
traded at a premium. By February slowly both are traded about the same price,
sometime RDS.A is higher or RDS.B is higher but they both go up and down
every day together. Today is totally bonkers.
mostly c) 90% odds - maybe a) 10% odds
I follow it and IMO they are wasting money with SYNB1891 for oncology using
STING pathway. SYNB1618 for treatment of PKU is OK to pursue.
They are throwing mud at the wall and see what sticks but it costs a lot
of money and it seems difficult to get more in this environment.
No position, too speculative to my taste.
On an amusing note CFRX sold $10M at .27 on December 10 and
sells again $10M at .39 today. Not an endorsement, just how desperate
some biotech is behaving these days
This is not scientifically proven but my wife and several of our close friends take statin.
They have elevated liver enzymes due to statin. My wife only takes statin 3 times a week
plus daily omega3 supplement to keep both cholesterol and triglycerides low while keeping
normal liver enzymes .
I was thinking that AMRN study kind of confirms it. My wife will get
Vascepa plus her reduced use of statin. But you are right, most people
would continue to use statin daily plus Vascepa so it would not
help their liver health much.
For MDCO if people switch to inclisiran twice a year vs daily statin
could benefit their liver health but again as you pointed out, few
would do this. It is just my own bias from friends and my wife
statin use.
I don’t have any position in AMRN nor MDCO (now NVS).
I sold MDGL at 112 in the recent run up as the NASH market size is reduced
by Novo oral glp-1 agonist, AMRN positive Adcom which leads to expanded label,
NVS buyout MDCO (better marketing push).
MD Anderson is not a good partner for BLCM. It is a fine research
institution but has neither money nor marketing muscle.
Once again Mr Market is not rational. IMO for CAR-T, I follow
MGTA for their capability to promote faster growth of CAR-T
if it pans out . No position yet, just some interest.
Another company is NERV with seltorexant for depression.
Sorry about the drib and drab as I have my own bias about
NERV and ALKS with low probability of success so I don't follow them.
ALKS comes to mind although their 5461 drug got a CRL from the FDA in
Feb 19 for depression.
The only other company I follow in MDD and TRD is AXSM beside SAGE.
The same three PARP drugs, CLVS Rubraca, JNJ (TSRO) Zejula and AZN Lynparza
battle for approval in prostate cancer.
I used to own CLVS in the similar battle for ovarian cancer years ago and
I sold it for a decent profit. I volunteer at this cancer support group
in Atlanta and years ago I notice that Lynparza and Zejula were marketed
heavily to this cancer support group for ovarian but no presence from CLVS.
Based on this anecdotal evidence I sold all CLVS back then and never looked
back. I have a feeling it would the same crummy marketing as before.
Back then CLVS could stand a chance as TSRO was a small company, it would
be difficult to compete with JNJ or AZN salesforce now. Just my opinion.
Vascepa was approved in 2013 for lowering triglycerides in patients with
severe (≥500 mg/dL) hypertriglyceridemia.
It is a small market and AMRN stock and revenue languish for a long time.
Acasti is also after the same market so there is nothing to get excited
about even if their drug is better.
Unless Acasti conducts a similar study to AMRN REDUCE-IT trial that lowers
the risk of cardiovascular disease which is a huge market, they will suffer the same fate.
In the REDUCE-IT patients were followed up for an average of 4.9 years.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa1812792
It would be a long time plus a lot of money for Ascati, first to get
approval for hypertriglyceridemia and to beat AMRN at reducing CV risk in
another trial similar to REDUCE-IT.
Lupron: 7.5 mg IM monthly, 22.5 mg IM every 3 months, 30 mg IM every 4 months, or 45 mg IM every 6 months for prostate cancer.
For prostate cancer patients, they should see their doctor at least once
every six months so it is not that much of a nuisance vs MYOV oral pill
everyday at higher cost
KRTX IPoed on 6/28/19 so there is still insider lockup for 1 more month.
Need to solve stock liquidity shortage now
FGEN bullish sign - two insiders exercised and held
https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/own-disp?action=getissuer&CIK=0000921299
Timing is poor though as they should have exercised and held on Monday
after the ASN to pay less tax @ $35/sh closing price vs $41 on Friday 11/8.
On Friday 11/02 FGEN closed around $40. On Monday 11/4 after the short attack
FGEN went down to $35. Yesterday it went as low as $33 before closing @41.
I am long FGEN, but I am not excited about it. I traded in/out a few times
and made money, but not so good in term of percentage. I trade out of Roth/IRA,
so tax is never a concern. I sold FGEN @54 and bought it back @45 this year.
On Monday I bought some more @36 to bring my basis to 41, just to break even.
This is just the short term. If you have bought FGEN at IPO 4-5 yrs ago at
50
you have not recouped your loss. In contrast if you bought high tech stocks
at the time you bought FGEN, you would have made a lot more money.
I have been a biotech investor since the early 2000 and I think the game is
over. It is not high risk/high reward but high risk - middling/low reward.
Most of my time is spent avoiding disaster like ADXS. I bought it @.80, I
was lucky I could dump it @10.5 the day it reverse split 1:15 (my basis
at the reverse split was @12). Nowadays it is .34.
Even if everything goes right with FGEN, you are looking at 4Q19 NDA and
4Q20 approval. And FGEN will never turn into a AMGN, GILD, etc. because
it will be bought out at a low premium long before that by AZN.
There won't be another company bidding up the price as AZN has the inside
track.
As for me, I probably sell some of or all of it once it reaches the mid
60s or after the excitement of the NDA filing start to die down.
This gives you a feel of how the Adcom should go.
https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/allergenic-products-advisory-committee/2016-meeting-materials-allergenic-products-advisory-committee
IMHO I think AIMT probably would get approval. However it may come with
a black box warning as there are lot of SAE and high patient dropout.
It does work as advertised and no different that what I have been seeing
an allergist for many years for severe reaction to hornet sting (except
that AIMT is oral delivery). Most likely it won't be a blockbuster.
My personal take is to try to buy it if there is a price slump in October
and sell it if the price goes up near its PDUFA date to make short term
trade worth around 25%-30%. I have traded in and out of it for a while, but
not a long term holder.
Meanwhile BLCM (AKTX competitor in HSCT) already finished ph3 of BPX-501
meeting the primary endpoint in July (I am not examining their claim
critically at all - just pointing out their PR) while AKTX only threatens to
start ph3 of their drug in 4Q19 with not much cash.
BLCM has $60M cash at the end 2Q19 and they planned to get $139M more. Apparently
the market is not impressed with BPX-501 as BLCM has negative EV.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/correcting-replacing-bellicum-pharmaceuticals-inc-145615808.html
I am pointing out the irrationality of Mr Market, NOT advocating
purchase of either AKTX or BLCM.
Even though the old deal is better than the new deal, CLVS urgently needs
the $116M now (new deal is $287M - $171M to retire old deal).
Management needs to be paid and keeps people employed, funding new trials
in the hope that they could hit it big. At the minimum they keep themselves
employed until 2023 vs 2021.
I am not so sure. Where I live, Atlanta, there is no Tim Hortons as it
is not a nationwide chain. Also I drive by a few Dunkin Donuts on
my way to work but I am not sure how popular the sausage item on their
menu thus what is the real impact on the revenue for Beyond Meat.
OTOH Burger King is everywhere.
I have no stake in either of them (Impossible is private) so it is
hard to know until Impossible goes public so we can compare the revenue.
I watch Netflix via my Apple TV and I can select the audio and subtitle
as I wish. Thus I always watch any series in its original language.
I am not sure if this is a feature of the Netflix app only for Apple or
not.
Dew, Just out of curiosity, the seroprotection rate is VBIV is better than Engerix
at all time points, and yet it does not meet non inferiority. Why is that? TIA
I bought MDGL yesterday @90.5. The Investor's Business Daily had a story
about the FDA draft on guidelines for NASH clinical trials that seems
to set a high bar.
There are 4 levels of liver fibrosis F1 through F4. Yesterday FDA draft
was for F4 (cirrhosis) and I actually agree with the FDA requirements.
MDGL, VKTX, ICPT drugs are for F2/F3 level of fibrosis and their trials
are well within the FDA draft guidelines (published sometime last year,
Dec 18 I think for F2/F3).
I had both Impossible burger at Burger King and Beyond Meat burger at
Carl Jr. My very subjective opinion is Impossible meat is better.
IMHO I would not invest in BYND as they lose money and Tyson sold their
stake in Beyond Meat is not a good sign.
OT: I don't understand the rash of IPOs of companies losing money like
Uber, Lyft, Beyond Meat. The worst of all is the filing of WeWork, losing
1.9B on revenue of 1.8B. Biotech IPOs now look better
I bought some today @13.75. In the last 5 years, the stock price did hit
the low 11s occasionally but it did recover. This was before the SAKURA 3
success.
I don't understand the pessimism even if price is below 12.50.
I do. Right now I don't have a position yet but I think they will get
approved by the FDA. Company promised to file to EMA by mid-2019. No
PDUFA from FDA yet but it is expected to be around January 20 so nothing
will happen in the near future.
I am just waiting to see how Brexit is settled and trade war with China
is going to be resolved before investing in any stock.
It is not a mistake. I had a small position in ADXS bought @ .80 (so
my basis is 12 after 1:15 reverse split).
I put in a limit order to sell @10.50 expecting some kind of positive PR
from AACR (and accepting a loss of -12.5%). Lo and behold I was able
to dump all my shares within 5 min. of market opening.
AKTX Coversin is a dud. AKTX, ACHN, OMER, APLS and RARX are in the complement area competing with ALXN Soliris,
hoping to be the next generation Soliris.
AKTX Coversin data shows it to have less efficacy than Soliris.
In this indication, hematopoietic stem cell transplantation, OMER
drug OMS721 has BTD from FDA. Also has orphan drug status
from both FDA and EMA.
However, I do not own OMER because I believe there are better risk/reward
out there but I would not touch AKTX with a ten foot pole.
At ASH ARQ531 1/3 durable PR in highest 45 mg cohort (after ~45 wks dosing), strong dose response in C481S
mutation CLL with 5/8 pts with >20% tumor reduction.
Today ARQL reports first PR in C481S mutation CLL at 65mg, 88% tumor reduction.
The next update (my guess is at EHA) should contain a sizeable group of
patients treated at higher doses, specifically patients from
cohort six moving from 45mg to 65mg, as well as six patients on 65mg in cohort seven.
I have no position in ARQL as my bias is ENTA presents better risk/reward.
Coversin pII data released last February showed that the drug was snake oil.
500k / 235 M sh = 0.21% increase in holding
EOLS gets approval in Canada
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/evolus-granted-approval-dwp-450-120100486.html
May be the retail piled in due to the stupid Motley Fool
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/apos-why-omeros-corporation-stock-172900233.html
Quote near the end:
That said, the magnitude of the difference is hard to ignore. A majority of 19 patients treated with the experimental drug survived 347 days versus expectations of just 21 days based on past observations of patients with the lethal condition.
This is clearly misleading as the 100 days passed sometime near
the end of April 2018 and the CC clearly said they just had the
data compiled recently. There is a 53% survival rate vs 10% in
historical control at 100 days, but somehow the Motley Fool extrapolated to
347 days of survival which is in the future.
If I have 100 shares of stock A bought at $10 ($1000), then if I sell
it a year later at $20 I have to pay long term capital gain at 20%
which means I have only $1600 (100 sh * $20 = $2000 - $400 tax) to
buy stock B.
All depends on how much stock A goes up vs stock B. If stock B goes
up a lot more than stock A then you make more money by selling A to
buy B, if B only goes up slightly more than A then it might be
better to keep stock A.
This only comes up with taxable account, not 401k or IRA of any kind.
Revenue from Omidria won't come until 4Q18. For the first 9 months of 2018,
OMER still has a problem with revenue so they might still have to raise money
quickly.
Not too concerned about OMER revenue miss nor dilution. The value is in OMS721
but my real concern is the rejection of PRIME designation for OMS721 by EMA as
I have a large position.
See slide 3
http://www.ema.europa.eu/docs/en_GB/document_library/Report/2018/02/WC500244621.pdf