On Friday 11/02 FGEN closed around $40. On Monday 11/4 after the short attack
FGEN went down to $35. Yesterday it went as low as $33 before closing @41.
I am long FGEN, but I am not excited about it. I traded in/out a few times
and made money, but not so good in term of percentage. I trade out of Roth/IRA,
so tax is never a concern. I sold FGEN @54 and bought it back @45 this year.
On Monday I bought some more @36 to bring my basis to 41, just to break even.
This is just the short term. If you have bought FGEN at IPO 4-5 yrs ago at
50
you have not recouped your loss. In contrast if you bought high tech stocks
at the time you bought FGEN, you would have made a lot more money.
I have been a biotech investor since the early 2000 and I think the game is
over. It is not high risk/high reward but high risk - middling/low reward.
Most of my time is spent avoiding disaster like ADXS. I bought it @.80, I
was lucky I could dump it @10.5 the day it reverse split 1:15 (my basis
at the reverse split was @12). Nowadays it is .34.
Even if everything goes right with FGEN, you are looking at 4Q19 NDA and
4Q20 approval. And FGEN will never turn into a AMGN, GILD, etc. because
it will be bought out at a low premium long before that by AZN.
There won't be another company bidding up the price as AZN has the inside
track.
As for me, I probably sell some of or all of it once it reaches the mid
60s or after the excitement of the NDA filing start to die down.
AI
