Marie Curie 74 TC1
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I had my Covid shot back in October '23 so when NVAX Covid vaccine came out in February I recommended to 2 friends of mine, one
lives in Atlanta the other one in Dallas. Well they got their NVAX Covid shot with difficulty, both of them got it at Costco.
I want to get another Covid shot before I start traveling this June so I check all the 4 pharmacies in Atlanta that NVAX claims having
their products. None of them has it. Just an anecdotal evidence on NVAX distribution or marketing strategy.
If you look at slide 12 then OCUL Paxtrava has no endothelial cell loss
https://investors.ocutx.com/static-files/7d4551c6-1158-4a4b-a13a-2198a210de00
vs Durysta
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34586961/
OTOH Paxtrava has more adverse events in slide 13
PS I have OCUL shares so the above analysis can be biased, not a promotion of OCUL
I bought PHAT in January and sold it in August this year. Made a good profit but I bought some other names that are now at a loss.
This market for proton pump inhibitor is huge. Takeda does 800M in Japan from this drug.
I would buy it back at this price except I have no more money.
I sold half of my stocks in June, then the rest in July. I recently dipped my toes back and bought a few speculative biotechs (only 2-3% at most of my money).
I am with you, the Shiller Cape index is too high and I don't see any growth anywhere to justify the stock price. UL is one of the names I consider when I go back to the market
I pass on KVUE. Growth is poor, P/E is high, some risk in talc lawsuits outside US. I rather own something like UL (Unilever) with lower P/E as a defensive stock with dividend (just a comparison, not a recommendation for buying UL)
Same con game by Musk. FSD is just around the corner years ago. FSD by Tesla is the only one, etc.
"During a quarterly earnings call in January 2021, he said Tesla had preliminary discussions about offering Autopilot — the company’s standard-equipment driving system — to other manufacturers.
Those talks apparently didn’t go anywhere, as no automaker has paid Tesla to license Autopilot."
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-21/tesla-owners-waiting-for-full-self-driving-could-get-some-company
AMD previous chip MI250X did not win many converts in datacenter chip. This new chip seems to be a big step up. AMD is very good in hardware but it is lacking in software.
IMHO, Nvidia has a huge advantage in its CUDA language and a large moat of library software code.
Nowadays PyTorch 2.0 from Meta and Triton from OpenAI could challenge that, but it probably takes a
few years for AMD to catch up (assuming they could do it).
I am a retired software engineer. I used to develop computer vision software with Nvdia GPU. I am not an expert in AI. Take this with a grain of salt
I bought SCCO @44 and RIO @53 in September 22. I bailed out of SCCO in February at 77 as it looks overpriced to me and dividend is low.
Put that money to work in PBR.A around $9 (cheaper than PBR) and same dividend (my estimate is around 30% if Brent oil price holds up around 80 on average.
South America oil like EC or PBR pays better in dividend
From yesterday EC Q1-23 Earnings summary.
GAAP EPS ~$0.62/share
Dividend is 60% of income
I still have RIO although I thought about selling it. Look like copper pays less than oil
Vinfast needs the IPO to get money to build the plant in NC. Not likely to happen anytime soon, keep delaying IPO.
Vinfast is a subsidiary of Vingroup which racked up huge loss in real estate investing in VN. As a tourist, I just noticed in March '23 that a lot of subdivisions built by Vingroup are in ruins, with vine climbing all over the houses. Shade of GFC 2008.
I used to invest in biotech stocks but not anymore. For example cancer cure is now more targeted, good for the patients but the market is smaller, less chance of finding blockbuster.
The risk/reward is not as good as before where a successful p3 can get to 20x increase in stock price. Nowadays probably a 2x increase in stock price. Just my opinion
The reason I buy copper is this:
1) Large moat. Investing in copper mining does not yield huge return so capital does not flock in. If you start from scratch, it can take up to 10 years. Government approval, building infrastructure (desalination plant in Peru, Chile and pumping water for extraction).
2) Copper is cheap enough, ie even if it goes from $3.5/lb to $5/lb copper is still a fraction of the cost of an EV car, or solar project or wind project.
Sure there is plenty of copper, it is not cheap to get it out of the ground. I listened to the last 2 quarters of FCX earnings and the CEO sounds very confident of a long term demand with tight supply.
Just my opinion, of course, I am not a mining engineer
I am a believer in copper shortage also. Most of my money is in RIO and SCCO since
September. I am a 65 yr old geezer and I select those two because of their good dividend and these two could sustain their dividend for a while
https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/pages/copper-is-the-new-oil.html
We plan to get it in November. My wife (67) and I (65) got 4th booster shot in May so
just want to wait a while.
Company has 134M in cash as of Q3 '21. CEO Vince Burgess did a good job at his last company Volcano
which got bought out at more than $1B. I think the risk/reward is pretty decent. Plan to buy some when I sell CMRX to
raise some cash
Quote:
One part of it is that the housing market got so expensive that some people decided to sit on the sidelines and wait until things revert to the norm before trying to buy.
---------------
Somebody is buying up houses in the suburbs. Anecdotally I moved this spring from one suburb in Atlanta to another one.
In both cases bidding wars happened for selling and buying. In my new
neighborhood, price rose another 100k in the few months I was here.
Friends of my children are frustrated because they cannot afford the price
increase, not because they don't want to buy and they
have been hunting since summer of 2020.
We went to Portugal in 2018 and visited many towns included Sintra and Caiscais. IMO I prefer Sintra to Caiscais.
People are very laid back and nice, unlike a lot of places where they are
trying to hustle more money.
The weather is nice and everything is cheap (compared to England where my
in laws live or other places in Europe). Excellent choice.
Did not know about Madonna living in Sintra.
Apparently FBRX CEO and CFO don't care as they dump their stocks
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1419041/000089924321035344/xslF345X03/doc4.xml
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1339375/000089924321035246/xslF345X03/doc4.xml
Apparently for ACIU the effect does not last long. Back to almost the closing price
on Monday 8/30.
Market is so efficient (sarcasm)
Good write up on Acutus from the short Kerrisdale Capital. At the minimum it educates people on atrial fibrillation.
https://www.kerrisdalecap.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Acutus-Medical-Inc.-AFIB.pdf
I have a position.
Same anecdotal evidence in Atlanta as well. We wanted to switch from a 2 story to a ranch
which is hard to find around the northern suburb. I had a screen list which
never had more than 10 houses but starting June '21 it is at least 20 houses.
We bought our ranch in Oct 2020 but I still keep the screen out of curiosity. We closed on our
old 2-story home in late May 2021. It was under contract for full price on
day 2 of listing.
Before that there was bidding war on a house nearby that sold over list price by 5%.
Anyway houses that listed in my former subdivision after we closed still
sit there even though they are even nicer than ours.
It looks like 1 confirmed, 1 unconfirmed (2/27) on Slide 21 after you wade through all kind of confusing info in their presentation. No position.
https://investors.blackdiamondtherapeutics.com/static-files/a2b09103-200c-4e4d-9a31-8589357f88b9
Honda hybrid technology is behind Toyota. In 2015 I shopped for hybrid cars . There were 3 choices: Toyota Prius, Ford C-max, Honda Insight.
My daily commute is 10 miles each way but traffic is bad, 1hr in the morning and 1h 15min in the evening.
Subjectively I liked the C-max the best, followed by the Prius and the Insight. Insight had the lowest mileage (not that I cared)
but the deal killer was the Insight had to turn off AC/heater when the car was stopped in traffic and the gas engine was turned off
just to get that mileage. The Prius and C-max also turn off their engine during stop but the climate control stays on. If the battery
charge falls below a certain level then the gas engine turns on long enough to recharge it.
The thought of being broiled in Atlanta summer during traffic eliminated the Honda from consideration. Ford C-max had bad rating from
Consumer Report so I went with Prius. This does not apply to ICE cars.
The Prius mileage is really good. One time we drove back from Gulf Shores Alabama home on one tank of gas. I was tired and did not want to stop when I was so near.
PFE is held a call option so it is unclear how profitable the position is if Burry has to keep rolling it over.
T-mobile is my service provider for cell and they include Netflix subscription for free (2 streams/ SD).
I cough up $3 extra per month to get HD and 4 simultaneous streams (not really what I want, I just want HD but that's the next level).
I also don't watch Netflix that much but I wonder the real cost for T-mobile as they probably don't pay retail price.
This old paper for first line Folfox for mCRC , in the abstract the response rate is 40-50% (reference 4) and up to 60% (reference 8) for p3.
https://www.futuremedicine.com/doi/full/10.2217/crc.12.20
Now for CRDF this result is p1b with small n so I guess the market wants
more than 42%. Plus the market is down generally today and for the biotech I own.
I don't currently own CRDF however.
The ORR keeps going down to 42%. In the past folfox chemotherapy has achieved 50% in KRAS CRC
but eventually failed later.
The market expects more. Well this is a known hazard of biotech investing where further trial result disappoints.
Most of my money is in pipeline operators like ENB, WMB, KMI where I collect around 11% dividend. It will be
at least a few years until oil price goes below $30 a barrel again. Better than bonds anyway.
As for biotech, I have a small position in CMRX where they have a smallpox vaccine developed under BARDA contract that gets a priority
review with FDA with PDUFA April 7 2021. Guarantee revenue and profit for a few years with a stockpile agreement.
Also I have OCUL eye implant. Potential indication is wet AMD, dry eye. Small position also.
Quick disclaimer. I follow CRDF but I find its stock price too volatile and high risk for my taste.
Around end of August/early Sep '20, its stock price was around 8. I had a limit order in the low 5s
a while back. One day the stock dropped as low as 4.40 so my order was filled. I sold it after
the ESMO result for a quick double from a non taxable account.
Currently I don't own it. Just so you know.
CRDF’s Onvansertib is a small molecule PLK1 inhibitor. Came from Pfizer Italia (currently Nerviano
Medical Sciences) which also developed small molecule blockbusters for Array (recently acquired by Pfizer), Ignyta
(acquired by Roche) and Genentech.
Pan PLKs have been trialed by BI and development forestalled by moderate monotherapy efficacy and limiting tox. But in
combo, PLKi show synergistic effect, especially in metastatic colon rectal
cancer and metastatic prostate cancer, as CRDF’s onvansertib has shown.
CRDF had a strong ASCO 20 Phase 1b/2 update in 2L mCRC patients using KRAS mutations as a biomarker in combo w/ FOLFIRI and
Avastin. In Sep '20 CRDF had an incremental update at ESMO. Bottom line: Seeing nice durability of responses. PFS: 8/11 patients 6 months
or greater. 2 patients >12 months… Already 12 patients on the Expanded Access Program launched in June..
Next update is in Jan '21 at ASCO GI. Also has a program in refractory/relapsed AML.
This guy is a CRDF bull.
https://klendathucapitalist.com/2020/09/01/cardif-oncology-targeting-kras-the-right-way/
No. I only follow a few companies (BP, RDS, XOM, CVM) and all of them did
report positive earnings for 3Q 20. However there is still a glut of
oil as OPEC+ still considers extending the current production cut.
I don't mean to pick on CNQ, but it is not obvious to me that they
are better than the other companies.
On natural gas, CVX seems to be in the mood for delaying Gorgon
LNG production which tells me there is not much demand. CNQ is
a producer of both oil and gas but the prospect does not seem
better in gas market.
The energy sector is cheap now and is likely to stay cheap for another
quarter easily. I did buy ENB recently for the high dividend payout
9% and pretty safe (their distributable cash flow is twice their
dividend). For growth or capital gain I still favor biotech.
I am not sure CNQ is competitive at all. They lost $310M in 2Q20 and $1592M
for the first six months of 2020.
https://www.cnrl.com/upload/report/132/03/q220-interim.pdf
Their dividend does not seem safe as they sold more bonds $1.5B
to stay liquid but it looks like the same strategy as CVX and XOM with
higher debt and unsustainable dividend. Also there is 15% withholding tax
on Canadian dividend. Might as well buy XOM or CVX.
At the end of Q2 20, the 13F filed by DE Shaw showed that the fund held
3940 positions (some positions are listed twice as long and also as call).
PRTK is position #1622, ATRA is position #1751 and EIGR is position #2371.
They are not a significant holding in the fund so I would not pay any
attention to it.
Mary did have insight. It is going to be peachy Jan 2021 so the stock is up.
https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/mary-barra-gm-coronavirus-recession
This is laughable compared to AUPH p3 result as an example.
https://ir.auriniapharma.com/presentations
and click on NKF 2020 Spring Clinical Meetings: AURORA Phase 3 Results
and patients were able to achieve UPCR <=.5mg at 52 weeks.
Not a recommendation to buy AUPH. My memory is hazy as I don't know
much about LN, but Velcade is better I think.
Kiwi my wife was able to control her cholesterol level via diet plus
atorvastatin 3 times a week and just regular Omega-3. She stops taking
Vascepa a while ago but it did help. Her regimen before this was
atorvastatin 3 times a week and Vascepa (before new diet).
As for CCXI I don't follow it so no help there.
IMO $MGNX shows better result. MGC018 =50% PSA reduction in 5/7 mCRPC
patients included all 7 mCRPC patients enrolled in 4 dose
escalation cohorts of 0.5 mg/kg to 3 mg/kg unlike $ARVN ARV-110 =50% PSA
reduction in 2/8 patients dosed at 140mg only. No response for 280mg dose.
Also $ARVN ARV-110 has renal toxicity. No position in either, just following. Do your own DD.
How does this work? I mean if I buy one share stock at $100 and it becomes
worthless (company bankrupt) then share is at $0 and I lose $100.
In this case if I buy one barrel oil of May future this morning around $15,
does this mean I have to pay somebody $15.6 per barrel on top of the $15 I
lose as the future closes at -15.6.
I have a drained swimming pool at the moment that my wife wants to get rid
of. If I can take delivery and get paid I could kill 2 birds with one
stone. Just joking
This article in Barron's explained it:
https://www.barrons.com/articles/oil-futures-prices-have-dropped-51587387499?
Quote:
The drop in West Texas oil can partially be explained by technical trading
patterns. The May futures contract expires on Tuesday, and as contracts
get closer to expiration their prices tend to converge with spot prices.
Crude spot prices have fallen into the single-digits at some U.S. pipelines
like in the Bakken shale fields in North Dakota, because there is way too
much supply and too little demand. At one Canadian pipeline, oil has even
fallen below $0. Oil may be choppy over the next couple of days as traders
shift focus to the June futures contract, which was trading at $22.43 and
had higher volume than the May contract.
Thank you for educating me. I am a retired software engineer living in Atlanta.
IMHO, oil price and the energy sector probably won't bottom out until October.
Unemployment will be huge, dwarfing anything in the past except 1929. I
was employed throughout the crash of '87, the dot com crash, the finance
crash of '08.
This time, everybody seems to be affected. Hollywood, professional sports,
concerts and tours, hospitality, etc. Most of my former colleagues were
laid off. My own dentist closed his practice until April 30. A few personal
friends who are doctors (not in ER) also don't have patients (ophthalmologists
and dermatologists). It was inconceivable to me that a company like Disney
is deprived of almost all of its revenue (theme parks, movies, ESPN) where
in the past they just had lower revenue, may be 20% lower.
I am not an expert but from my research the oil price quoted by Bloomberg and
Marketwatch is the future contract price (I think for 1 month delivery but I could
be wrong). Javier Blas is probably quoting the spot oil price, which is the
price per barrel if you buy oil at this instant and take delivery immediately.
The oil market is in contango (price going down) vs backwardation (price going up).