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Link back... What is market watch???
They quoted GS as the source of this info... My guess is that's where it has come from... Clearly you are upset by what GS is saying or has reported... however I don't know what else to tell ya..
$133 billion is my guess of what this will all cost. Mark my post... in a few months we will see if I am right or wrong.
Ok here are some other sources who say the same thing..
http://www.streetinsider.com/Downgrades/BP+(BP)+Disaster+Could+Cost+$40K+Per+Barrel+Spilled,+Goldman+Sachs+Downgrades+to+Neutral/5706602.html
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bp-eyes-containment-shortfall-on-gulf-well-report-2010-06-07
"As Wall Street continued to crunch numbers on what the cost of the spill will be for BP investors, Goldman Sachs analysts took the figures spent by Exxon Corp., now Exxon Mobil (XOM 60.03, -1.21, -1.98%) , in the 1989 Exxon Valdez accident, and adjusted them for inflation to come up with a figure of $40,000 per barrel spilled."
Now the source of the information used was Goldman Sachs... Is that good enough for you??
I have no idea it came up on a google news search, i was only interested in it for the clean up cost, and liability of $40,000 per barrel.
If that's the case and the oil spill is about the same as the 1979 oil spill they are looking at an aprox liability of $133 billion and some change...
That's using the 140 million gallons spilled over 9 months. Or 3.333 million barrels of oil...
Here is an interesting article for you
http://www.thestatecolumn.com/articles/2010/06/10/bp_bankrupct_9392.php
"Using the Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) Valdez spill in today's dollars, analysts estimate that BP will be billed $40,000 per barrel for the containment, clean-up, litigation and related cost of the spill."
the question is how many barrels do you think are spilling.
Yeah I wouldn't doubt it.
Who knows at this point though... We don't even know how much oil is leaking...
I think a lot of what happens is going to be up to congress.
they also have a huge liability on their backs.
Clean up BP says it should be about $3 billion, however most estimates put it around 10-20 billion (note they've spent a billion so far)
Then you have congress which is looking to have them pay lost wages from different industries for something like 6 months. FL tourism is 60 billion a year, then the rest of the areas in the gulf coast have about 20 billion a year in tourism. Louisiana's fishing industry is 2 billion a year alone, then you have sport fishing which is thought to be a few billion as well
Then you have to figure in fines from the government. If BP get criminal charges their fines could be as high as 200 million a day.
Now that's just a small snap shot of what all the costs could be... however there is a chance it goes way beyond the money they make a quarter or a year.
Yeah, I'm sure we will see a bunch of offers especially if this thing continues to slide down... the question is will any of them be taken... I don't think any of them will be taken though...
I'm sure a bunch of different people are starting to think about a take over.
That being said the company has 2.3 billion in cash... I'm not sure exactly how they plan on coming up with 90 + billion.. They'd have to come in with an offer at some kind of premium to the current market price. Something like 120 billion... I just don't see them coming up with that kind of cash...
there aren't too many unknowns... this spill is going to continue until they finish drilling the relief well. And is going to go much like the spill in 1979...
I'm surprised more stop losses weren't triggered. I wonder how many shares are left to sell..
I think someone came out to say there was a 50% chance they wouldn't pay their dividend...
if you are in this for the dividend, you are an idiot though... I dunno, I kinda just feel its capitulation.. I'd love to buy but I'm not going to... but my guess is this gets a bit of a pop from here...
You think this is the capitulation day?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/37553383
There was nothing new about the iphone 4 coming out... we have seen it... it was known... why would apple putting it out today change anything...
I hate to say it but until the government stops screwing around... and trying to blame the economy on someone else rather than fix the economy I see this going down...
Here is what I don't get.
So this pipe they have is forcing oil out, and they are forcing mud in. the two pressures are pushing on each other to put it the best way...
Why in the world does BP not get a whole bunch of the worlds strongest magnets. and align them in or along the side of the pipe as low as possible. and push metallic objects down the pipe to be attracted by the magnets.
Once things are slowed down ie clogged up... fill with cement and move higher in the pipe and do the same thing again... and keep moving up until it has been completely shut off.
I can't imagine we don't have magnets which can't hold up to the pressure or be stronger than the pressure of oil coming out... and the worst case is you just increase the pressure of the objects that are flowing in by a large magnitude thus making success much more likely.
Can you repost this with a direct link to this youtube video in the sticky notes... I'm not sure how to make the video appear in the message other than the link.
thanks I'll take a look.
ok now I'm fully on board with you... This is crap...
Oil tax increase would help pay to clean up spills
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D9FTDV7O1&show_article=1
"WASHINGTON (AP) - Responding to the massive BP oil spill, Congress is getting ready to quadruple—to 32 cents a barrel—a tax on oil used to help finance cleanups. The increase would raise nearly $11 billion over the next decade."
Euro is falling again.. dollar getting stronger could continue to push this lower. we shall see if this continues into the morning.
Re: "I might bet out of the penny market all together, and begin trading ETFs. Much easier to get in and out of."
yeah penny markets do not have the liquidity needed...
I just like trading ETFs because I'm not 100% sure when the next big market crash is going to be (I still don't think it is for a while), but I'd rather be mostly in cash, and trade directional ETF's looking for small profits each day and not have to fight the tape.
ha I'd like to just see the 60's it's been churning around here forever.
Gas prices falling should help them out though for their next quarter..
yeah, I was lucky. I had sold out of a major position before it tanked around the mid 30's... and when it got down to 8 I was like this can't go to 0 so I bought my position back... worked out pretty well.. This is the one stock I timed perfectly. I can't say that much for a lot of my other positions.. ha...
Ha, I think you are prob pretty right. I'm shocked that we haven't seen more shots at BP from Obama's administration... IT leads me to believe that Obama is in BP's back pocket...
ha well I have a cost average for WFC in the 8's... I should have bought puts back when it was up in the 33-34 range... oh well I'll just hold on and let things work their way out..
It will probably push the oil up the rivers... which will be bad... hopefully it doesn't make its way into the local water supplies...
As for who benefits... no one really I mean clean up crews get a one time benefit, but that's nothing you can trade off of... as that earning aren't going to be there next year..
I'm no conspiracy theorist, however some think this will mean more alternative energy.. however with oil under 70 dollars a barrel... I can't see that working out so well. .
German Parliament Approves European Aid Package
http://www.cnbc.com/id/37269467
yup watching FAS for next week... should be a nice one to flip
when does hurricane season start? that could really screw things up as well.
Ha no problem thought you'd enjoy that.
One more you were talking about how BP said they were capturing 5000 barrels and that couldn't be because it was leaking 5000 BPD and they said they were capturing that much...
Well anyways..
Now they are claiming they are capturing 2,200 BPD
http://www.cnbc.com/id/37276941
Like I said before I think they just have people in a room with a dart board with random stuff posted there and each day they throw at it and whatever it hits they say or do...
Not sure if you saw this yet.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/37280870
"Officials at the Environmental Protection Agency are considering whether to bar BP from receiving government contracts, a move that would ultimately cost the company billions in revenue and could end its drilling in federally controlled oil fields."
http://www.firstcapital.com/Press_Releases/051810-term-securitization.html
CIT is going to loose business to these guys. they just raised an extra 139 million which will be then levered and lent out.
CIT is doing business currently at an unsustainable level... and their clients are looking to get out. Be very careful here. jmho
note the above company is private, i'm not trying to get anyone to buy this company, just merely showing what the industry is doing to take over what CIT is doing.
Hey did anyone catch what Jamie diamond just said on CNBC on the impact of fin reg on JPM? he was talking about like credit cards 500 million, something else 200 million and one more 200 million. I had it on in the background but was wondering if anyone heard it, or has an article on this?
tia
Ha sorry I like to play devils advocate. My guess is selling is due to people trying to be liquid and they are selling what has worked..
Banks to Drop 12-15% Then Rebound in 'Multiples': Bove
http://www.cnbc.com/id/37253850
eh, today isn't the first day this was down... it's been down with the market.. something a hedge isn't suppose to do, it's suppose to go up..
i highly doubt there is much manipulation going on...
Yeah that's sorta what I'm thinking... I kinda feel too many people are bearish... we could see a snap back rally at some point where I'd want to be flipping FAS... Until that, I think you can continue to flip this one though I just wouldn't want to own it for an extended period of time.
so you are lightening up on your position now?
Do you think financial reg will really hurt things for banks?
Gold is down on a day where people should be looking for safety... Would you not say that gold was safety or suppose to be?
If it was safety why is it selling off on a day where people are looking to get safety.
ha, where do u see this going, what do you see stopping this trade from being profitable?
Everyone is so bearish right now it makes me think..
who's going to buy? If you are looking at this as a hedge in case things go bad. you have to question why that hedge isn't working...
You are right to own this, but about 3 years too early imho
Yeah, I own no oil.. I'm just looking to start a position, and buy on the way down.