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looking good on the chart.
there are many reasons we can go lower...
http://www.cnbc.com/id/39404684
Thanks for the heads up. However I've sworn off pennies, I got lucky once with a company.. I don't want to push my luck any further in pinky land...
Like the board. Board marked.
Nice trade congrats.
Hey where do you see FAZ going over the next few days. I'm in with a cost average of 13.72... interested to hear your opinion.
I've got a target of 16.
you want to buy my shares from me in a week?
How much lower do u think this goes?
nibbled a bit a 13.72, looking for it to go down further to get some more.
Financials have run a bit too fast too quick. They are all getting to be almost overbought. Once the real traders get back after a long weekend I expect some profits to be taken, and or a bit of a sell off. looking to nibble here. We still might have one more day of rallies (in financials) but I don't think it goes much more than that.
Gotta agree with yeah here.
The real issue is they can't stop the flow... everything to this point has just been BS to buy time with the public. they might as well have been sitting around drinking tea at browns...
the relief well is the only way to stop it...
ok this is an odd day... huge volume around lunch time...
that doesn't make much sense...
anyone got any ideas for this big volume spike...
I almost get the feeling that it's someone trying to manipulate the stock.
these are all factored into the liabilities, the issue is this is an asbestos type issue... and won't hit for years down the road...
I don't think the oil spill estimates will get much worse.
what are they now 20-50,000 barrels a day. I think that's pretty accurate. (based off a very similar spill in 1979.)
now that being said, I'm closer to the lower end of that range for my estimates... so I will give you that there might be more oil. But I kinda doubt that we see something like 100,000 barrels a day...
yeah I just can't decide if they go to like 15-20 and churn there for a while (years) or go bankrupt and wipe out share holder equity.
I mean if most of the costs are due to liabilities and going to be charged to them via the courts and it takes 15-20 years... if they simply just don't pay the dividend... and put that money into an account that's 150-200 billion... they should be fine...
now that being said.. I think there is something like at least $4,300 fine for every barrel spilled. and then you prob have to factor in a few thousand for clean up and other costs that they are going to have to pay today... so lets say 4,000 a barrel for that... then they would Owe $27.4 billion right away...
ha, yeah. I have my value for x.
GS has put out an estimate that this spill will cost $40,000 a barrel.
the last Oil spill in 1979 spilled just over 3.3 million barrels. Current estimates show flows are much like the 1979 oil spill or greater. So I'm using the 3.3 million barrels as the total spill.
40,000 * 3.3 million = $132 billion add in the change and you get my estimate of $133 billion.
I hate to say it but considering they have already paid 1.6 billion I see this very hard to believe your estimate of 5 billion total costs. Remember you have to adjust the numbers of past for inflation. that's where the 40,000 estimate comes from, goldman adjusting past oil spill costs for inflation.
Yeah I understand.
I priced the cost of the spill currently at 133 billion.
well to be fair they will make more than 20b that's a post tax, and this will be paid for with pre tax dollars.
now that being said...
I am wondering at what level does the company go bankrupt. not what you think this will cost the company.
Ie at what level does the cost of this spill hypothetically cause them to go bankrupt.
is it 30 billion, is it 50 billion is it 100 billion is it 200 billion... I'm less concerned if you think it will cost that much and more so at what point you think they are in danger if they had a bill for x amount.
How much would this have to cost for them to go bankrupt? tia
You didn't hear the next big thing is the BP coffee spill..
http://www.cnbc.com/id/37623555/
it's already on CNBC...
I think this video from BP headquarters just about sums it up..
ha it depends on how much oil is spilled imho.
BP could be a screaming buy... or a screaming short...
The real question is what will the final cost of this all be. if it's 40 billion or under I'd want to be long... if it's over 120 billion I'd want to be short...
immortality.
So what's your price target here, and time frame...
better take out a new mortgage on the house... rates are hitting new lows, load it into BP... clearly it's a trade that can't go wrong.
heck before you know it the fishermen will be paying BP for the spill...
So let me ask you this, Would you put new capital to work here today... at these levels? (in terms of going long BP stock)
these are numbers taken from previous spills adjusted for inflation by Goldman Sachs...
But hey what do they know... Clearly you are able to quantify this much better than they are...
$40,000 dollars a barrel is GS estimate spilled is the cost to clean up, and cover expenses. However most other estimates are more like 45,000 or higher but lets go with the GS numbers.
As of today... Estimates state anywhere from 900,000 to 5,000,000 barrels have spilled.
so the range of cost for the clean up is anywhere 36 billion to 200 billion.
Now, that's if the oil would stop today. no more. the problem is it hasn't... and it won't. This likely will go on until early fall, when they are able to finish drilling the relief wells.
my guess is when this is all said and done 3.3 million barrels will spill into the gulf. costing aprox 133 billion...
Remember BP will pay for this on a pre tax bases. so that gives them like 30 billion in pre tax profits to pay for this... but the costs are going to be much higher than that. which will mean they will likely have to cut the dividend.... And possibly do a capital raise, which will further dilute share holders... Then you get into the company having to sell off assets to pay for things. which makes owning the stock much less attractive.
regardless time will tell, but I don't think you have even began to quantify the liabilities here.
I think you have the right long term trade still.
My best guess at the cost of this spill is $133 billion
Look at what the market did, we had that flash crash... and then a big rebound... which lasted what 2 days... and then it died off from there only until now where it has had a bit of a bounce..
My guess is that BP trades much like the markets post flash crash...
I know, the current spill from 5000 feet is going to be much harder to contain due to the extreme depth. other than that things are very similar.
I don't get the argument you are making... you do know that the 1979 oil spill was 160 feet under water right? There was no need for ROV's...
Yes and no. It is on the very low end of the estimates... and if the spill was only 5 million gallons BP would not have any real issues. 5 million gallons is almost 120,000 barrels... considering the govt is estimating that the flow of oil was something like 19,000 barrels a day... that would have been reached in less than a week....
please read the links I post to you....
"In the 1950s the Royal Navy used "Cutlet", a remotely operated submersible, to recover practice torpedoes.
The US Navy funded most of the early ROV technology development in the 1960s into what was then named a "Cable-Controlled Underwater Recovery Vehicle" (CURV). This created the capability to perform deep-sea rescue operation and recover objects from the ocean floor, such as a nuclear bomb lost in the Mediterranean Sea after the 1966 Palomares B-52 crash. Building on this technology base; the offshore oil & gas industry created the work class ROVs to assist in the development of offshore oil fields. More than a decade after they were first introduced, ROVs became essential in the 1980s when much of the new offshore development exceeded the reach of human divers."
They had them, I'm not sure what to tell yeah...
what is your point? and where are you getting that figure???
yup looks like it. The million dollar question is how much oil was\ is spewing..
If these numbers are right and they can continue to contain a large amount of the spill, then BP is one of the biggest buys ever here...
if the numbers are more like the 1979 oil spill and it's closer to 30,000 barrels a day then BP is a Huge sell.
ha. at this point I can't even begin to make an educated guess as to which one is correct...
Apple's Worst Security Breach: 114,000 iPad Owners Exposed
http://gawker.com/5559346/
Eh, I'll believe it when I see it.
I just scanned the document they are containing 1,000 barrels a day... of the estimated 19,000 a day from the govt...
That's not 50%.. nor is it near 90% and note this is their hopes... they also hoped top kill would work and hoped that the top hat would work...
Clearly you have not gone back and looked at the solutions and the history of the 1979 oil spill... exactly the same as the current spill... All of which failed until the new relief well was drilled..
I'm sorry but I'm gonna have to quote a very wise man George Santayana, "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it."
What's the actual documented rate of the BP spill tia.
As for the 1979 spill the biggest difference was that spill was in shallow water 160 feet, where as the BP oil spill is what 5000 feet down...
All I'm saying is that they used the same efforts to try to contain the 1979 spill.. of which all failed until they drilled the relief well. I highly doubt that BP will be able to contain the spill any quicker than the 1979 spill.
Yeah it's all dependent on how much oil comes out many are saying it should be about 800,000 barrels which would cost around 36-40 billion. If it costs them 40 billion I say they should be fine...
The thing is I have a fear that there is going to be more oil spilled than thought...
There is an erie similarity to the 1979 oil spill... if the amount of oil is the same, we are looking at more like 3.3 million barrels of oil spilled... If that's the case, then you get my number of 133 billion as a cost.... Note that's using 40k a barrel cost vs the 45k most estimates use to get the 36 billion number..