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yeah it looks good...still plenty of upside...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=RFMD,uu[e,a]waclyyay[d20020330,20061230][pc200!c50!d20,2...
Nokia raises mobile sales forecast
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BA643F26F%2DCE91%2D4D81%2D8892%2DD45DD784F45...
helping qcom, rfmd, etc
come on wahz, that's already known and discounted, so what's the real reason we're dropping? <g>
when we're at 11750 in april, I guess it'll be more clear <g>
just saw that...up ~35 now
so I guess it's goog that's going to lead the explosion tomorrow <g>
looks ready to lead the dow to a new all time high...
no didn't hear that and I don't think he'd say that anyway...if that were the case the market would probably be pricing in 3 more and it's not
from what I read he didn't really say anything about future policy, only that it would depend on incoming data
yes perfect...goes with the idea of a low tomorrow or thursday, reversal up by friday, and 11750 in april
if you doubt it's going to happen, just come back in a month
would you believe this explanation?...the market's dropping so that the smart money can get one last shot at buying positions before the ramp to dow 11750 starting by friday and getting there in early april
every time this topic comes up, there's always the same misunderstanding...da_chief didn't say anything about the long positions or net...all he said was
"at the oct 02 lows ......the commercials had on their biggest short positions in history"
if you look at the data the commercial SHORT positions (on the spx full contract) did increase during 02 reaching the biggest short position in history on sept 17th 02...as in they were short more contracts than at any time in history, it doesn't mean they were NET short more than any other time. The size of the short position went even higher in dec 02.
Obviously you guys who disagree with him are looking at net commercial positions...I've heard some people say the commercials were net long at the 02 lows which isn't the case, your data and all the data I've seen says they were still net short at the 02 lows.
So the past few days we've heard the comments about commercials being heavy short again and this being a bearish sign, when it's no different than any other lows we've been at...they're net short now as they were in oct 02, mar 03, aug 04, april 05, oct 05...
look at 03...judging from this it looked like the small spec was the smart money...it also shows how quickly the commercials can shift away from being heavy net short...basically this data is pretty useless for market timing
http://www.softwarenorth.net/cot/03/SP.png
it's not just da_chief who sees it this way either...
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/replies.asp?msg=8498518
yeah I didn't mean to imply it's going down 10 right away...just as the dow makes its way to a new all time high and beyond the next few months, oil will be going the other direction IMO
I think oil's going even lower...it broke down from the bear flag yesterday, it could easily drop 9-10 from that IMO...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$WTIC,uu[r,a]daclyyay[dd][pd20,2!b50!c50!b200!c200!f][vc...
dow bull flag is next, breaking up I mean...new highs coming soon...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$INDU,uu[r,a]daclyyay[dc][pd20,2!b50!c50!a10960!f][vc60]...
not a bad idea IMO but everything takes $...I'm just adding everything I can long
I have a feeling we're about to explode, I mean f'ing huge...I'm having this vision of dow 11750 in april <g>
here this is what we need...
http://www.rallymonkey.com/oldvideo.php
no, just continuing to add long my favorite tech stocks...I'll add on any dips until we're at 2800+ by late summer
why, what are you thinking?
bear flag...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$WTIC,uu[r,a]daclyyay[dd][pd20,2!b50!c50!b200!c200!f][vc...
big drop coming in oil IMO
bull flag...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$INDU,uu[r,a]daclyyay[dc][pd20,2!b50!c50!a10960!f][vc60]...
big up move coming on the dow...counter the oil move IMO
interesting that oil had a similar longterm "rising wedge" to what the comp had, and just like the comp has done it broke up out of it, and then went up huge, played out the projections of the "wedge" (I call it an ascending triangle)...even backtested it a couple of times and broke back inside for a nice fake, formed what looked like could have been a h&s top, but the buying interest just got too strong...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$WTIC,uu[r,a]waclyyay[d19980707,20060307][pd20,2!b50!f][...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$compq,uu[e,a]waclyyay[df][pd20,2!b50!f][vc60][iub14!la1...
I see a lot of folks saying the comp is forming a h&s top now...I just see it as a pennant-like consolidation above the breakout that's relieving the overbought, next step is to play out the big ascending triangle breakout to the upside...even if we did have a fake drop back inside, below 2240...I don't see that happening though. We're so close now...once we break up from the comp consolidation, the dow is going to 11750 in a hurry...wouldn't doubt if it's there by mid april.
The process is definitely taking longer than I would have imagined, but nothing's broken...just keeps making higher highs and higher lows...the money rotation continues, going into spec tech as we speak IMO, oil related is going to suffer
the break out above the rising tops has continued to hold and we've just consolidated nicely above that breakout...I'd say it's about time to break up again and out of this consolidation...I see nothing bearish happening at all...this buying opp should be considered a gift IMO.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$COMPQ,uu[e,a]waclyyay[d20031214,20061231][pb50!d20,2!f]...
I'd guess the dow should be getting close to 11750 in early to mid april...if the comp falls hard back below 2240 and doesn't recover I'd worry about falling back further and delaying the big up move, but I don't think that happens
All JMO
LOL <g>...yeah that's better
you've gotta be one happy motherf'er today...
fnsr's carrying the fo's higher <g>
no rcp, he never called for a crash <g>...
Posted by: POKERSAM
In reply to: None
Date:2/17/2006 9:46:51 PM
Post #of 22861
Major Crash Mode!!! We are now moving into major crash alert. The alert signal has gone from orange to red. I have spent some time with the charts tonight and I had chills looking at the carnage to come.
Never have things been so bleak. We are staring into the face of the perfect storm.
The grizzly's wet hot breath is strong on the back of the markets neck.
Abandon all hope, the markets are doomed.
The rising wedge reversals will not be denied.
Greenspan is gone so he will not be blamed. Bernie just got here so he will not be blamed. It will be blamed on energy, the age of the bull and economic cycles.
George Bush cannot run again so blaming him will not matter.
The Democrats will blame the Republicans and visa versa.
Who is to blame will not change the reality that we are in a long bear move. The continuation of the correction of the 2000 top is upon us.
I will try to help you take advantage of the bounces as we go down.
POKERSAM
hey CJ...
I think my view would be similar to yours, I'm not excited about it, but nothing looks horrible either. I think the next run with the sox and comp leading will clear a lot of things up...I would guess the non tech stuff will look much better then. As others have noted, some of these other indices haven't followed the comp breakout and instead turned down at resistance...so rather than thinking those will pull the comp back down, I'm looking at it like the comp and sox will lead the others up.
That will obviously be wrong if the comp plunges back below 2241 and doesn't recover right away.
csco's pinched pretty tight here...I'll be interested in seeing if today's move can continue for the rest of the month...my bullish bias leads me to think csco is about to break out of its trading range and move up quite a bit, also helping the comp move much higher...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=CSCO,uu[r,a]maclyyay[d19911007,20061231][pd20,2!b50!f][v...
Since it's seems most other boards and posters have become increasingly bearish with this decline, I'll take the other side and say this still looks fine to me. We've still held 2241, the sox continues to outperform...the key to this whole thing for me...so now why don't we just see where we're at in 4 weeks. I won't be surprised in the sox is over 560 in days and over 600 within a few weeks...and comp 2400+ also should come within the month.
A hard break of 2241 and no recovery is still my breaking point...meaning back to the old trading range, not a complete crash.
I think we're ok...we shouldn't break 2241 and we should start up next week...2406 still where I think we are by late feb, then we drop, then we go nuts to july
The thing that breaks it is a plunge below 2241 and no recovery next week...up til now it looks fine
One thing I have changed, I've been expecting ~3060 by mid july...my pick for a high by jan 06 early in 05 was 2865 in wahz's game...I think that may be all we get, it just being delayed some from where I originally thought we'd get it...but I fully expect 2865 min to 3060 max by mid july...so I'm just adding whatever I can. I also added utsi yesterday btw.
I'd agree, there's no consistency. I mean there is no direct play like pmcs to csco...qcom is the supplier...the ICs, the ip...it doesn't have a "pmcs" of its own.
rfmd tends to be influenced heavily by nok, and some by mot
and then swks and rfmd influence each other quite a bit...kind of like today with swks getting hammered after earnings yesterday, rfmd's down with it
actually these two are influenced by just about any handset sales forecast from any of the big players...one day nok says things suck and rfmd and swks get slammed, and a week later mot says things are great and they come back for instance.
I like utsi here and will add it soon if not in the next day or two...their cdma presence is growing quite a bit, if they could just get their damn accounting under control things would be fine. They're trading at 1/4X sales.
rfmd would be my pick between it and swks...it's cheap relative to its historic p/s, even though there's concern over margin improvement...I may just favor it though because I follow it more closely
yeah looks like it turned into one of those wait several days for it to bottom out things...well now we know why the damn thing couldn't move up from ~21+
I think I may go for some utsi pretty soon here
yep so far...we seem to be spending plenty of time down here at the daily comp middle bb...that's fine. I still think we'll break up very soon.
Not really seeing any bearish developments here...comp still holding onto that breakout...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$COMPQ,uu[e,a]waclyyay[d20031214,20061231][pb50!d20,2!c2...
Chip results point to stable industry growth
Wed Jan 25, 2006 09:49 PM ET
By Scott Hillis
SAN FRANCISCO, Jan 25 (Reuters) - A raft of solid earnings reports from microchip companies on Wednesday offers more evidence that strong, steady growth backed by consumer demand is supplanting the wild swings of the past.
Firms such as specialty chipmaker LSI Logic Corp. (LSI.N: Quote, Profile, Research) posted a higher-than-expected quarterly profit while others, such as communications chip supplier Conexant Systems Inc. (CNXT.O: Quote, Profile, Research) , issued bullish outlooks.
"A lot of the earnings are stronger than I think people were expecting, and even when not as strong, the guidance has been good," said Eric Ross, an analyst with ThinkEquity Partners.
Semiconductor stocks lost some ground last week after Intel Corp. (INTC.O: Quote, Profile, Research) , the world's biggest chipmaker, failed to meet profit expectations, and Xilinx Inc. (XLNX.O: Quote, Profile, Research) , a major maker of programmable chips, gave a sales outlook that was weaker than analysts had hoped for.
Many chipmakers see a seasonal dip in first-quarter sales, but several companies reporting on Wednesday indicated they would buck that trend.
Intersil Corp. (ISIL.O: Quote, Profile, Research) , which makes wireless networking chips, said revenue this quarter would be about the same as in the fourth, sending its shares up 6.5 percent.
LSI, (LSI.N: Quote, Profile, Research) whose chips are found in DVD recorders, digital music players and computer hard drives, also forecast higher profit and revenue than expected. Its shares rose 3.8 percent.
Shares in Altera Corp. (ALTR.O: Quote, Profile, Research) rose 2.5 percent after the maker of programmable chips found in wireless gadgets posted profit in line with expectations.
Tore Svanberg, a semiconductor analyst with Piper Jaffray, said chip firms were benefiting from muted expectations and tight inventories during the fourth quarter.
Semiconductor makers with pronounced exposure to consumers or computing markets performed especially well in the fourth quarter, Svanberg said.
"The first quarter is normally a seasonally down quarter. But now the outlook is for a quarter that is not seasonally weak. So, as we move into the March quarter, investors are getting excited," Svanberg said.
Not every company excited Wall Street, however.
Wireless technology company Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM.O: Quote, Profile, Research) showed a higher profit on strong demand for mobile telephones, but its shares fell slightly as some investors were disappointed by its forecasts.
Cirrus Logic Inc. (CRUS.O: Quote, Profile, Research) , whose chips are used in a wide range of consumer electronics, saw its quarterly profit quintuple, but forecast sales below some Wall Street estimates, sending its stock down about 3 percent.
But overall the latest results are reinforcing the theory that the semiconductor industry, infamous for its boom and bust cycles, is entering a phase of more moderate but stable growth of about 10 percent per year.
Ross of ThinkEquity said it was clear that companies have been bumping up against capacity constraints, which is actually good news for an industry prone to sudden over-expansion.
"This is a different type of cycle than previous ones. This is a nice, slow, steady cycle where companies keep their footing, have nice utilization of capacity and keep their margins," Ross said. (Additional reporting by Eric Auchard)
© Reuters 2006. All Rights Reserved.
http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh39839_2006-01-26_02-49-03_n25...
"You don't have to be a bear to call the formation a bearish wedge"
oh I know that...but I know that you know that "bearish" formation can just as easily break up as it has to this point...all I meant is that the hardcore bears that I've seen have been posting that chart for some time saying there's no way that breaks up, it's bearish, there are neg div's etc. You know I don't take that simplistic a view of it either...I know we could head back down inside if the smart money isn't ready to explode this up...I think we're very close, and really I think the next couple weeks will tell a lot. If we're at new highs within 2 weeks, the comp will have held on to that support area and the others indices will then most likely be breaking out. So we'll see what the next couple weeks brings...I'm still leaning up but I guess that's just the permabull in me <g>.
that's kind of the point, the monthly bb has "capped" each advance since 03...so for 2 years we've been in a trading range. We've just broken out above that trading range the past couple months, after a middle bb tag on the monthly in oct. So why can't we break up now, and get that upper bb moving up? Because you think the 4 year cycle won't allow it?
As others have pointed out, there's little resistance between 2300 something and 2800+, I have ~2406 as the point we really explode. If we don't turn around now and pop quickly back over 2300 and towards 2400 within the next few weeks, then your scenario of staying in the trading range I'm afraid may be right.
well let's hope it works out for all of us <g>
worst case IMO is that it gets delayed again, but I don't think so right now...looks good as long as we turn up early this week after some down to start...will be more interested in where we close this week. Personally I think we're well back above 2300 by the close weds
ok I'll watch for that...I can't narrow it down that fine, I'll drive myself crazy trying to. As long as we're at 2380-2406 in feb I think we're good. And as I said, anything too much further below the 50s, without a reversal back up early this week, would bother me.
here's a picture of how I see it...we had the rising tops and bottoms that the bears have been calling a bearish rising wedge...I expected the "wedge" to be negated by turning into a channel after breaking that top line to the upside. Inside that I see an ascending triangle...we broke out of that, backtested it at ~2191, exploded back above the rising tops line, and now backtested it...I wouldn't be surprised by another candle like we got to start the year to explode up now. If we crater below that this week, I'd worry about going back into the trading range and heading towards the lower line...I don't expect that at all.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$COMPQ,uu[e,a]waclyyay[d20031214,20061231][pb50!d20,2!f]...
I think we've gone about as far as we can and we're going to go, and expect a reversal monday after some possible early weakness.
I've been looking at the 2380-2406 area as the critical parabolic breakout area for months now, and expected some violent downswings to occur once we got close...really a way to give bears one last bit of hope before we explode is the way I see it. I thought we'd get closer to 2380 first, ~2360, but 2332 was fine and so is the drop to the 50 day. I think we now head to 2380, possibly get another pause there, then one more swift drop down like the current one once we tag ~2406...if we bounce back quick after that drop and take out 2406, we go nuts to ~3060 in mid july, which is what I expect to happen.
If we plunge further below the 50 on monday and don't recover, it'd make me think we may be headed back into the trading range for a bit longer, which will suck...doesn't kill the bull, but delays the upside again. All JMHO.
Good luck to you.
or better yet from 95 to 98 when the vix was in a clear uptrend as the comp went from 700 to over 2000, dow 3600 to 9000+, etc
there you go...that's the right idea
take a look at a chart of 03 and see what 50 tags and even temporary breaks meant...buying opps all year
we'll see what happens this time but I'm adding whatever I can for the run to 2400 starting next week
yes it closed at 0.75 for the day...as you posted the originator uses it like this...
"He considers the market to be overbought when the 10-day moving average of the TRIN declines below .8 and oversold when it moves above 1.2. (taken from StockCharts glossary}."
The 10 day ma closed friday at 1.18, I guess you could say more oversold than overbought.
"Just used the chart for illustration of the point which it illustrates well."
What point do you think it illustrates? That extreme in the ma's of it did hit an extreme in nov as your chart showed, and the market corrected in dec...now the market's gone on to higher highs and the trin is no longer overbought...very bullish actually.