this is the real classic...turns out he was right about this...

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=8022332

I would assume so...they can't act like they're not aware of inflation risks...growth is clearly slowing, let's just watch the econ data and see what they do in 3 weeks...

"If we're on target with our present forecast for growth to moderate to a sustainable pace and for inflation to fall back within acceptable bounds, I would say that monetary policy is now close to where it should be," he told the Council for Quality Growth in Duluth, a suburb north of Atlanta.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060607/bs_nm/economy_fed_guynn_dc_3

I just bought pmcs and brcm, so we'll see how bad of a further beating I'm in for

well at least you changed, and quick at that <g>

You and diesel were right IMO, this june low will be it for the year and the fall will be fine...the dow broke out of the two year trading range then backtested the top of the range with this sharp drop...I'm sure others have the same idea that I do about what this means. Also perfectly following the pres cycle with this low. I still expect dow 12000 before the end of august and possibly 13000+ by jan 07, with a small correction in sept into oct.

edit: my two favorite semi's brcm and pmcs have taken a good beating, so I'm buying more today

tried to cut and paste it...

Housing slowdown behind rise in inflation
Perverse methodology could be distorting view of inflation, economists say
E-mail | Print | RSS Feed | Disable live quotes
By Greg Robb, MarketWatch
Last Update: 7:01 PM ET May 17, 2006

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Beneath the surface of rising core consumer prices over the past two months lies a disturbing trend: The slowing housing market is actually making inflation look worse, economists said.
The housing sector makes up 40% of the consumer price index, which increased 0.6% in April. Core prices, which exclude food and energy but which include shelter costs, rose 0.3%, spooking financial markets with an inflation scare. See full story on April CPI.

In the heady days of the booming housing market, more people were buying homes, and fewer were renting, economists said. Supply and demand kept rents comparatively low, and inflation appeared to be contained -- despite the run-up in home prices. But this virtuous circle is now reversing.
With home prices remaining high and mortgage rates rising, more people are being priced out of the real-estate market and are instead looking to rent. This increased demand is pushing up rents. See related story on housing affordability.
At the same time, the supply of rental properties has been constrained, as many former rental properties have been converted into condominiums, said Mark Vitner, senior economist at Wachovia Corp.
"This dynamic, once it begins, is fairly sticky," said John Ryding, chief U.S. economist at Bear Stearns. "This raises the risk of higher inflation going forward."
Perversely, this slowdown in the market is also pushing up the costs of owning a home, at least, the cost as reported by the government.
The way the government computes the CPI has created a distortion that made inflation look tame when home prices were soaring, but is now making inflation look worse as price gains moderate. It's all because the government measures everyone's housing costs -- renters and homeowners by looking at rents, not at the cost of owning. Read the government's explanation.
Housing prices do not figure directly into the CPI data, Vitner explains. The government recognizes that homes are not only shelter, but assets that add to individuals' wealth, just as stocks and bonds do.
To measure just the value of the shelter services and not the long-term value of owning the asset, the government essentially assumes that homeowners rent their homes to themselves, so it computes an implied rent called "owners' equivalent rent" by asking them how much their house would rent for.
Owners' equivalent rent "is a deeply unsatisfactory measure because it is a price that nobody actually pays," said Jan Hatzius, chief economist for Goldman Sachs.
"The recent slowdown in house price inflation not only fails to hold down the CPI, but it arguably acts to push up measured inflation," Hatzius said. "It's difficult for the Fed to make this argument explicitly, because they never talked much about this distortion when it worked to suppress measured inflation. Nevertheless, they are clearly aware of the distortion and will take it into account when judging the inflation outlook."
Steve Stanley, chief economist at RBS Greenwich Capital, said he expects owners' equivalent rent to increase 0.3% on a steady basis in the coming months.
This will translate into a lot of 0.25% gains in core CPI every month, meaning that the tipping point between a 0.2% increase and a 0.3% gain will be other categories like autos, apparel and hotel costs.
"As we have been saying, core inflation is going to blow through the top of the Fed's comfort zone over the next few months," Stanley said.
One glimmer of hope might be that the Fed's favored measure of inflation is the core personal consumption price data, which is released by the Commerce Department near the end of each month. Housing does not play such a large role in that index, economists said. End of Story
Greg Robb is a senior reporter for MarketWatch in Washington.

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B06FC27E0%2DAFD4%2D4555%2D86A6%2DB74788186F4...

I don't think the fed needs to raise any further, and I doubt they will...every piece of data coming out suggests a slowing housing market and economy, and the past few hikes haven't even rippled through yet. ppi was tame, half the rise in cpi was due to a quirk in how shelter costs are measured...

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B06FC27E0%2DAFD4%2D4555%2D86A6%2DB74788186F4....

there was no way the dow was going to go straight through the all time high without some kind of pause...I thought we'd get a week or so drop to draw in more shorts before it pushes through...I think it's close to done now but may need a couple more days, and it's obviously got the bears awfully confident now that any rally can be shorted...I think we'll see at least 12500 in aug.

it's worth a ton...very good observation

nya has a nice backtest of the "rising wedge" it broke up out of...man this looks bullish

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?c=$NYA,uu[g,a]waclyyay[d20020101,20061231][pd20,2!b50!f][vc60][iub14!....

this isn't bad either...

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$OEX&p=W&yr=4&mn=0&dy=0&id=p89074818309&a=4...

well we could all sit around and say the same things over and over but that seems like a waste of time...pullback from the dow all time high almost over and it's headed back there and much higher...I think most people here who are bullish are probably adding what they can or watching the low develop, you have to remember this is not a traders board, so there can be days/weeks of watching lows form or rallies take place without much of anything to say

namo at -65 here intraday

isee index hit an extreme earlier today only seen at the major lows of the past few years...I guess we'll see what happens the next 4 weeks

If only it was...I wouldn't mind that at all <g>

either that or a bounce then one more drop into about weds/thurs, then turn up...I do think we'll see the cnbc-dow-new-all-time-high-party in just a few weeks though

well that story sucks...I'd rather it's just the stock bears that are slaughtered, but I got your point

I think it's on meaning this is the selloff from near the all time high to get the shorts piling on, and it won't last...we could hit another 6 year high on the dow by late next week but I don't know if we close over the dow all time high next week...I'd say that happens within a few weeks at most though...and that's just the beginning as we'll then cruise up another 1000 points IMO.

http://wavcentral.com/cgi-bin/log/log.cgi?id=1203&sound=/sounds/movies/trading/tradpl23.mp3

I'm referring to the bear slaughter that's going to take place the next few months...this was the pullback from the all time high...now it's on next week...

http://www.gotwavs.com/cgi-bin/wavs.cgi?American_Wedding=itsonlike.wav

nothing really to add...the dow approached the all time high and sold off...it's now sitting right on its all time monthly closing high...I still think it gets through 11750 much faster than it dealt with 11350

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=M&st=1997-05-14&id=p05160140429&a=38192860

and I'll still continue to add whatever I can for the next few days while the dow builds towards this breakout

http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=10982847

man, like Frank the Tank <g>

http://www.oldschool-themovie.com/

click on "visit the official site" then skip the intro

hey you can look at it another way, we've had a lot of time to accumulate shares right...we certainly are moving in the right direction. There are still a ton of folks waiting for the bear market to resume and talking about long term short positions...I would hate to be them.

hey look at sons go

wahz why is sons now green? It was down earlier...any news?

LOL <g>

I think the comp is going over 2800...when it gets there pmcs should at the very least approach its jan 04 high of 24.91 IMO

I actually expect a run very similar to what it did in the second half of 03, 10.25 to 22.81 in 3 months...but this does require the big run on the comp, which I expect we'll get once the dow busts through 11750

this is the ~11 gift I wanted so I'm buying more...retraced a perfect 38.2% of the rise off the oct low...time for the next doubling in price IMO.

Not saying it couldn't put in one last low after the fed, but looking out ~3 months I still see it over 20.

selling the infrastructure division to ericsson...not only got rid of a money losing division and unlocked qcom's earnings potential, but more importantly ericy finally cratered and accepted qcom as the owner of cdma

nope that's not me

Yeah I thought we might selloff some here too but who knows, the dow really looks set to get 11750...even if it sells off some today or early next week, I expect 11750 pretty quick. Then as the shorts pile on thinking it'll top at 11750, it'll get a quick minor pullback and then the real thrashing begins IMO.

Yeah the fed could screw us up and delay it again, but it appears the market's saying it's ready to go, so it must think the fed is done after next week at least for a while.

Good luck

I bought more at 11.50 two days ago and next week I'll buy again anywhere it's at really...I wouldn't expect anything worse than about a 20% drop total though, meaning I think the ~11 area will generally hold any further drops...if it reaches 11 it'll be a gift IMO, since I still expect the next run off the 50 day to hit ~15.50 in 3-4 weeks after the takeoff.

I had thought it would just spend a few days at most under the 50, but now I'm not so sure, I'm prepared for it to bounce up and fall back from it a few times the next couple weeks, while the dow cruises up to 11750, falls back for a week or so, then makes its way through...I want to be loaded with anything I want within a couple weeks since I expect the dow to handle 11750 easier than it did 11350...once the dow breaks 11750 in a couple weeks, I expect quite a ride up to 2800+ on the comp. So that's why I'm saying I'll just add pmcs and brcm for as long as they remain under their 50s...I think they're going to fly once the dow's through 11750.

brcm still a major buy here too...can't wait til we're at 2800+ on the comp and we see where these are at...brcm's repeating 99 <g>...

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BRCM&p=W&st=1999-04-20&id=p60075559393&a=37225852

STILL A LOT OF NON-BELIEVERS
By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst

5/5/2006 1:12:54 PM Eastern Time


It's almost comical listening and reading the bears explain why this morning's jobs report wasn't great and how the Fed is going to keep raising rates. So what! At this point, we need the Fed to space their rate hikes, as an acknowledgment that all the rate hikes could add up to a powder keg that blows up in their collective faces. In the meantime, the egg-on-the face award goes to the bears that just won't admit that hating the U.S. market indefinitely is stupid. Be that as it may, there has to be doubters in order to get the market higher. Many of those that still are waiting for stocks to prove themselves will be buyers at significantly higher levels. That will be the irony; these people will go from skeptics to greater fools. Don't get me wrong, most of the non-believers are very intelligent folks with extremely high IQs, which will keep them at bay until all the evidence is in.

Eureka!

It reminds me of one of my favorite Far Side comics. Gary Larson fans should remember the one comic piece where the caveman, after obviously laboring for a long time, invents the wheel and at the same time there is some other caveman in the background riding a hotrod. I'd love to see the masses shout eureka at Dow 12,500.

what do you think disciple?

I think any time under the 50 day is a major buying opp. The secondary thing may or may not cause it to hang around the 50 a bit longer than it would have, but doesn't change the 3 month outlook IMO. It was up 122% from the oct low, it's come back down 18% to the 50 day...I don't see that as a major issue but could be wrong. I'm going to buy all I can below the 50 before the run to 25+.

Hey CJ, I had been thinking about something like 98 for a long time but I don't think it will be nearly that severe anymore, not unless we were to run to 3500 in the next several months <g>

I think something like 2865-3060 is possible, then drop to 2400-2600...that's still a decent correction, but nothing like the 30%+ of 98...that was getting late in the decade and was a final washout before the bubble. Maybe we'll get something like that in early 08 after we're near 4000, then they'll blast us back up to new highs. JMO

think he still has a peak in 2010, hasn't changed anything based on recent oil run

oil got a bit more bubbly recently, but I still think it's topping right here at least for a while...going back to the 40s over time...

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$WTIC,uu[r,a]maclyyay[d19900101,20061231][pd20,2!b50!c50....

well I certainly like the semi's but yeah they haven't been strong yet...some obvious targets to look for if the comp moves to ~3000, then to ~4000...

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$SOX,uu[r,a]maclyyay[d19990114,20061231][pd20,2!c100!b10...

and same thing here, lagged but will catch up some IMO...this thing's on its way back to the jan 04 highs later this year, much higher next year

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$NWX,uu[e,a]waclyyay[df][pc200!c50!d20,2!b200!b50!a255!f...

both should do well...guess we've gotta pick the right ones in each group though...I like pmcs and brcm right now after good earnings and these pullbacks. ntap continues to do well in the storage space. I still like all the small fo's on wahz's list...they'll probably lead the final leg like they did in 99.

actually that came across wrong...I think we correct in fall, rise into late 07 early 08, correct again, then rise again into 09...the question I think I have is what will the correction after the run into late 07 early 08 look like...that will determine if we just recover to slight new recovery highs to end the decade, say to ~4000 +/- a few hundred points (since I'd expect something decently above 3500 before any big drop in late 07 early 08), similar to how 89 recovered slightly over the late 87 peak...or really move much higher to a new all time high on the comp like superbulls like dent thinks. Probably from sometime late in 09 and on things will really go to hell.

yeah that's what I think...whenever it comes

oh I don't expect a big correction until fall...I'll be holding on for a new recovery high above jan 04's 24.91 peak sometime in aug...I've sold some a couple times in the past few months but added it right back on dips (I hold calls too and sold some that were large in the money and bought further out of the money). I bought more the past few days on tests of the 50 day.

the comp will have its run towards 3000 IMO, I guess it was expected that once the comp cleared 2332 it would sail up to 2800+ but seems the dow had some work to do first...once the dow finishes with 11350, then clears 11750, we'll really take off, the comp will run to 2800+ very quickly, and many of these will double in probably a 6-8 week time period...I'm guessing that now happens from mid june into aug. The process has been lengthy and boring, but we just keep grinding higher, all the while pulling in more bears calling for a huge drop and the end of the bull...amazing how many times I've heard how old this bull is etc...that's bs...got years to go with one decent correction coming this fall IMO.

for the bernanke/fed watchers...

http://www0.gsb.columbia.edu/students/organizations/follies/media/EveryBreath.wmv

that's not on their events cal...

http://www.pmc-sierra.com/pressRoom/events.html

it's going to 15+, the market is struggling a bit with the dow just trying build up enough strength to leave 11350 behind...so it's difficult for it to blast up on its own.

I think ~15.55 by a few weeks into may, pullback to the 13+ area, then double into aug...just a guess.

yeah in case no one noticed, this 11350 area on the dow is kind of important...

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$INDU,uu[e,a]maclyyay[d19970514,20061231][pd20,2!c200!c5...

yeah I know, this one was another classic though <g>

brcm guides up again...

http://yahoo.reuters.com/stocks/QuoteCompanyNewsArticle.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20060420...

pmcs guides for revs of 108-112 million next quarter, not including Passave acq

stock pretty flat right now and who knows how it reacts tomorrow, but this shouldn't detour it from ~15

edit: now reacting positively to guidance

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$NDX,uu[e,a]daclyyay[d20050407,20061207][pd20,2!c50!f][v...

reaffirmed guidance two weeks ago...I would expect guidance going fwd should be decent as well given their recent comments...and will guide including (a full quarter from) the A business now...rev's should be ~105-110 million next quarter from ~85-88 this quarter.

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/060404/20060404006126.html?.v=1

I think it's headed over 15 very soon, regardless of the initial reaction to earnings. Since I expect the comp to continue up from here the next few weeks, I think it's going to 15+ during this next run.

I don't think so...oil's continuing to be a drag...I still think this is the end for it for the next several months, but it's not dying easy that's for sure.

From the oct low we've risen 350 points on the comp and we're down 75 points from the last peak...the goal is ~850-1000 points off that oct low and I expect the last couple months rise from june into july/aug will make up a good amount of those points. Until then we deal with oil and the fed uncertainty bs, but continue to make higher highs...when it's clear the fed is done we'll go nuts and I think get ~500 points in two months.

I consider every dip a buying opp...just like 2240 and the minor dip below we had to give the bears confidence, I think we're doing the same thing now with 2300. I'll be more interested in where we're at in a week or two. If we plunge below and don't recover right away I'll start thinking about the trading range again, but I don't think that's going to happen.

I'm looking under my cushions for more cash to buy <g>

The last 5 months have been awesome but now's where we go nuts and make crazy sick money

I'm adding whatever I can...got more pmcs

It took forever but we finally approached 2380 and this is what I think is the fast drop from that area...next we get closer to 2400, probably drop again like this but not so far...then after ~2406 I think we go parabolic.

Dropping well below 2300 would make me think trading range again.

Posted by: mjk
In reply to: rcptrader who wrote msg# 28228
Date:1/21/2006 9:40:29 PM
Post #of 29740

I think we've gone about as far as we can and we're going to go, and expect a reversal monday after some possible early weakness.

I've been looking at the 2380-2406 area as the critical parabolic breakout area for months now, and expected some violent downswings to occur once we got close...really a way to give bears one last bit of hope before we explode is the way I see it. I thought we'd get closer to 2380 first, ~2360, but 2332 was fine and so is the drop to the 50 day. I think we now head to 2380, possibly get another pause there, then one more swift drop down like the current one once we tag ~2406...if we bounce back quick after that drop and take out 2406, we go nuts to ~3060 in mid july, which is what I expect to happen.

If we plunge further below the 50 on monday and don't recover, it'd make me think we may be headed back into the trading range for a bit longer, which will suck...doesn't kill the bull, but delays the upside again. All JMHO.

Good luck to you.