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OT: Fuzzy logic, anyone interested in this subject?
Two books "Fuzzy Logic & Neurofuzzy Applications Explained" & Fuzzy Logic & Neurofuzzy Applications in Business & Finance" by Constantin Von Altrock you can get them used on amazon you don't have to worry about wether the book has the demo software with it. You can get the demo software here .
A third used book from Amazon is "Investing in Mutual Funds Using Fuzzy Logic" by Kurt Peray. Some people would say its not Official Fuzzy Logic, But it is a interesting way of assessing risk in the market and adjusting your portfolio to match.
I have not read any of them but just glanced through them, just got them.
Fuzzy Logic Tutorial, good explanation.
Hi Is7550, if you have a google account, you could upload what ever spreadsheet you want to share to your google drive, and share the link from there.
Hi Allen, I am a month behind reading posts, but here is some info for you. Value Averaging spreadsheets from the last book update can be found here
If you are a guy who is not afraid of Math you can find some awesome spreadsheets by Gummy here . Gummy was a Math Professor before he retired, so how he explains things can get a bit gummy, which is how he got that nickname.
Altman Z score:
The reason for the last post of mine is I found a good article about Altman Z-Score but the url was to long.
Slightly off topic: Most of you have come across Tinyurl by now, and some of you may know of bookmarklets ( java script saved as a book mark. So I came across this today A better TinyURL bookmarklet!
Books I like!
Practical Formulas for Successful Investing by Lucile Tomlinson
Superpower Investing by Robert Lichello
How to Make $1,000,000 in the Stock Market Automatically by Robert Lichello, short title The AIM book
Value Averaging by Michael E. Edleson
Understanding Your Financial Calculator by James F. Dalton
On buying books, I have had real good luck buying used books through Amazon.com. I think I bought Superpower investing through Thriftbooks online, I think I paid $25 Including shipping.
Fool, no way!
Synchrovest in a nutshell.
Take what ever money you were planing to invest using DCA(Dollar Cost Averaging) and split it up into two parts. One part to be invested right away, and the other part to be held in reserve for Bargain Basement sale days, while rare they are always worth it.
Mr Lichello said invest 75% times his multiplier right away, and put the rest away for a later day.
Average cost per share= Total cost/Total number of shares.
How to get multiplier take your (average cost)/(current price)
If the multiplier is less than 1 you only do one step.
Example one: you have $100 to invest, your last average cost per share is $6, and current share price is $8. 6/8=.75
Calculation is $100*.75*.75= $56.25 That's how much you invest, the rest is saved for another day.
If the multiplier is larger than 1 you have two steps to do.
Example two: you have $100 to invest, your average cost per share is $10 and the current share price is $8. 10/8=1.25
Calculation is $100*.75* 1.25= $93.75, plus step two
Step two is multiplier minus one times the reserve money, the reserve money could be only $100, or it could be a few thousand. so in this case you are investing one quarter of your reserve. Important to note my Lichello says do not invest more than half your reserve at a time, so if your multiplier is at 1.75 you only use .5 times your reserves.
Note if you feel Synchrovest is to aggressive you could subtract more than one from the multiplier. So you could have 1.25 minus 1.1 giving you .15 times your reserves.
The last thing is when to sell, in the book Mr Lichello says to sell when you get a profit of 100%, I think a better percent is 50% but that is up to you. In this book Mr. Lichello felt that by the time you got to a sell trigger the market was due to fall, so he advised to sell all and start a new.
Hi Karw, Thanks for the vote of confidence.
Interesting when I signed out of google I didn't find it ether. try this site. AIM Money Machine
Hi Tom, on the Twinvestnew spreadsheet, I had evidently been tired when I uploaded it, not all values are set the same in all the sheets of the spreadsheet. Opps, sorry! when you open up the spreadsheets you need to set the initial stock price (A4) I think on all the Twinvest sheets to $4 dollars.
The prices I used are prices I made up, they start at $4 and end up at $19 ten years later and bounce around a lot!
The first sheet is plain DCA
The 2ed sheet is plain Twinvest
The 3rd sheet is Twinvest, where you add a percent of cash on hand to the new money coming in. This really comes into play after a sell I also let you determine at what percent profit you sell at. Original Twinvest was set at 100% profit, I think it should be set at around 50%.
One of the things I like about Synchrovest and Aim is they are dynamic in nature, the point where they buy and sell changes over time. To me Twinvest with a fixed code is static it will keep buying at the same price points. True the code does change when you do a sell. But I was trying for a (dynamic code).
The 4th sheet uses the 52 week Hi and Low prices to determine a dynamic code (because I am using fake prices, I had to fake the 52 week hi/low prices also), but it does produce a moving code.
The 5th sheet uses a moving average of price to calculate the code with.
The 6th sheet uses a combo of the Hi/Low price and the Moving Average to determine the code. ((Hi+Low/2)+MA)/2= number used to determine code.
I through these sheets together in a hurry in 2004, and uploaded them, to get peoples opinions on them. I got no reaction at the time.I am not saying they are better then the original Twinvest just different.
Mr Lichello, also thought of this in his superpower investing book.
In chapter 4 of the book he talks about how in 1970 Chase Manhattan bank ran a contest, and how Synchrovest ends up beating all the contestances when he ran the numbers using the Rowe Price New Horizons fund. (I think that was the fund he lost his money in), anyway he likes to use that fund in both his books.
Hi Karw,
In the very first edition He mentioned Synchrovest. As I am sure you know but others may not Mr. Lichello for the most part only added pages to the book.
In the revised first edition/ 2ed edition, he added the chapter on Twinvest.
In the third edition, he added his AIM-Hi, and in his 4th edition he revised his AIM-hi section. Don't get me wrong I love his story telling, but it can be confusing as the steps of the plan get stretched out through the book.
His first book Superpower investing came out in 1974, Published by Farnsworth in the usa, and his AIM book was put out by Penguin books out of the uk on their Signet brand, no telling what type of contracts he signed to get published back then, or what type of conflict of interest that caused.
When you use Synchrovest with the 10 to 4 and back sequence, with a sell set at 100 percent profit it almost gets to 100% it keeps getting closer, as it keeps on lowering the average cost. when you set the sell anywhere between 40% and 70%, with this set of numbers you get sells, and it is the "Katy bar the door" as Mr. Lichello would say.
from post #10 on my group.Here is some more interesting stuff on DCA. In her book Practical Formulas for Successful Investing by Lucile Tomlinson, Mrs. Tomlinson has a chart that shows how long it would take for a DCA plan to reach 40% profit, the time period varied from 2 1/2 years to 10 1/2 years long, most were about 5 years long. She seemed to be recommending stopping the plan at that point, as she goes on to say that after reaching 40% the plan tended to just follow with the market. Another thing she said was that If one were to combined a DCA plan with a Constant ratio plan one could get greater profits.
This is what led me to set the sell point at 50% Synchrovest is more aggressive than DCA is.
So, what to say, I've been away for a while. Will try to be here more often this year.
Sorry! I lost my temper, I guess I am a bit sensitive about the spreadsheets.
I really did upload the Synchrovest spreadsheet at its worst, not its best.
Hi Allen about the spreadsheets!
Lostcowboy's Spreadsheets
The only one that is protected was, Hilowinvestordemo, and that was because I thought if people liked it I could maybe sell it.
About the Synchrovest spreadsheet!!! When you download it, you must play with it! The reason you see it going into the Negative over and over is that the sell is set at 100% profit. That is what Mr. Lichello said to set it at in his book Superpower Investing. The prices I used were not the ones in Superpower investing but the ones in the AIM book. 10,8,5,4,5,8,...,and repeat for 10 years.
I used those numbers so I could compare with AIM. I was very Interested in why Mr. Lichello did not go with Synchrovest instead of Twinvest. It may have been due to the copyright of the book or it may have been due to the numbers he used in the AIM book.
What I found was that using the numbers in the book, with the sell set at 100% you never get a sell, and with out a sell you can't do much. That spreadsheet is not for investing, it is designed more as a lab model where you can change settings and see how things are effected.Try adjusting that sell percentage down, 90, 80,70,60,50 percent. I could have uploaded it set at 50 percent, but would anyone believe the results if I had? That it beat AIM!!!
Edited to fix url!
here is one android program.
AIM money machine
you could be right. if my financial calculator is right that's a growth rate of 14.65% a year. But you have to remember that most of the people on this board are AIMing the market, that means if there is a crash They have funds available to snap up the cheap shares.
Hi Allen you can go to my forum and read about synchrovest, I also have a spreadsheet over there.
Happy Thanksgiving to you also.
Hi Neko, sorry about taking so long to respond. In the header, at the bottom is a link to my spreadsheets. They are for you to experiment with. Off hand I would say mr. Lichello has it right for the most part, except for the sell off point. I would make that around 50%. But try the spreadsheets for yourself. Note! the spreadsheets are not for real investing, just testing the ideals.
Hi TooFuzzy, I have not read his book yet but my understanding is it is a simplified version of Value averaging. where your portfolio is suppose to gain in value 3% every quarter. if it gained more than 3% you sell shares. if it did not gain 3% you are suppose to buy enough shares to bring the value of the portfolio up to the new target.
3 % signal calculator and spreadsheet
Hi Jon, yes I do like Jason Kelly, what I like the most of him is he is willing to keep a open mind to new Ideals. I have not read his 3% signal yet, but I look forward to doing so. Beside the calculator, he also has a spreadsheet you can download.
Constant Dollar Plan, Dollar cost averaging, AIM, Value Averaging, , Synchrovest.
Practical Formulas for Successful Investing by Lucile Tomlinson
Robert Lichello, Super Power Investing and How to Make $1,000,000 in the Stock Market Automatically
Value Averaging: The Safe and Easy Strategy for Higher Investment Returns
Michael E. Edleson, William J. Bernstein (Foreword by)
All these books are worth reading! Lucile Tomlinson has some interesting comments about both the Constant Dollar Plan and Dollar cost averaging.
Robert Lichello, in his Two books appears to have addressed theses comments with his simple formula's.
Mr. Edleson, in his book talks about his concerns with Dollar cost averaging. He talks about how it does not take into account Inflation or Growth of the stock market. He addresses this in his chapter on growth DCA. In his chapter on Value Averaging he combines his ideals on growth DCA with the Constant Dollar Plan, such that instead of a constant dollar amount, you use a changing dollar amount as a target that you buy or sell shares to meet.
It's my thinking that these different ideals could be combined into a better formula. Not sure how as of yet.
Hi Guy's, has anyone been thinking of combining (Value Averaging) and (AIM), or (Value Averaging) and (Synchrovest). I remember in the AIM book Mr. Lichello talking about whether it was a good Ideal to add money routinely to AIM. I believe he felt it would be a bad ideal. But I am thinking it would not upset the formula at all. Mr. Lichello's instructions on adding new money was to add half of the new money to stocks fund and half to cash fund, and add half to Portfolio Control. A better ideal on adding new money is, determine the ratio of your stock fund to your cash fund. the new money would be added with the same ratio. This should totally prevent the AIM Formula from getting upset, not that it would.
On the Publishers web site for value averaging you can find the spreadsheets for growth DCA and Value averaging. Both are worthwhile downloads, and the book is worth buying.
Value Averaging web site
could be. lol Just thought I would let people know, I haven't abandoned the site.
Take care,
Clifford
Trades4life, can I help you on my group?
Hi Bob, been away from the site for a while. Yes I have thought about adding more rules to Synchrovest. one that comes to mind is if Synchrovest has a profit greater than 45%, and the market has dropped greater than 10% from its highest point, sell all. Synchrovest tries to protect from market drops by selling all stock. Then it starts reinvesting as the market drops. One could add a buy rule that the current price has to below the average price, and the current price has to be greater than the latest low price. something to think about.
In the header at the bottom is a link to the rest of the spreadsheets. The link says lostcowboy's spreadsheets. you may be hiding the header. Here is a link. lostcowboy's spreadsheets
Hi Bob, as others have mentioned jibs was working on A similar idea. here is his abandoned forum. AIM RE-bal
from their web site it looks like they send out emails with the name of the copyrighted material, also ip numbers, and time and dates. did not say anything about phone calls. also if you just got this phone number they may be trying to talk to the wrong person.
Hi that link is no longer any good. You may want to use Firefox and install the flash video down-loader add-on.
Hi greenReeper, about the time value of money. You did not include inflation and how to add it into your calculations. Check out Serial payments for how to do the extra calculations.
Many years ago I had both a first edition and the revised edition( 2ed ?) the only differences I saw was he added money market funds. simplified the formula slightly and added Twinvest,to it.
If memory serves me in the original formula when adding or removing money. you would add 1/2 the amount, then add ether 1/10 or 1/20 of the half. in the revise edition he dropped that requirement. Decided that it was a unnecessary complication.
java script and a Java program are totally different. I the java program is one you are expecting to run. Just enable it.
Sounds like they want to open a java app. Some web browsers, and or maybe the java run program are giving you the option of not running the app. It is up to you if you want to run it.
Hi Clive,sounds like you are thinking along the lines of my HiLowdemo spreadsheet. I lost my password so I can't unprotect it. But it is similar to what you describe. In my spreadsheet, one does not use all that P/E stuff. just how high and how low you think the prices will go. so you could have a wide spread or a narrow spread in price ranges. The range you can change month by month. The ratio of cash to stock is fixed in the beginning when you setup the plan. I have been thinking that one could change the cash/ stock ratio over time. Say a young man could start out with a large range of ratios, like 20:80. then as time passed start changing the ratio to 50:50.. That's high price/ low price stock ratios. not sure if that make any sense. late at night here in Texas.
Sure,Synchrovest spreadsheet
In the header at the bottom is a link to the rest of the spreadsheets.
Hi Chiffle, I can see that you want to get started. Robert Lichello made two plans for small investors like yourself and me, one is in his AIM book, it is called twinvest. The other plan is called Synchrovest, he wrote about it in his first book called Superpower investing. Another book you should read is called Value Averaging by Michael E. Edleson.
Here is the best web page I have found that explains it, but you really need to read the book.
Value Averaging
If you want to know more about the different forms of periodic investing feel free to come by my forum.
I haven't done any testing like that, but it does not seem to bad a idea.
HI Bob, the calculation is correct for a simple profit. but you can not divide it by the number of years and get the correct interest rate.