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It was Gary Grieco who made that statement on a podcast, I really don't know he had the monthly accounting, but perhaps he did. Tesla didn't make a profit until a few quarters ago, yet nothing prevented the stock from going through the roof. I believe if we're clearly growing, in spite of spending money to do so, we'll eventually be viewed like the Tesla of the sanitizing industries.
At this point, getting our financial out promptly should do a lot to improve our credibility with investors. Let's hope that the second quarter is out very shortly.
Gary
DE,
Thanks for your many contributions, and congratulations on adding the cheap shares. Wish I had the dry powder to do the same.
Like you, I believe we'll be in an entirely different trading range once we have second quarter results, and I hope that won't be long. Hopefully the auditor and company have been working on both reports simultaneously and the second quarter is near ready to issue.
Hope you're construction is going well, I don't know why, but it seems like all construction takes dramatically longer than estimated. I think construction goes faster if financial incentives are added for early completion, and penalties for being late.
One of the largest construction projects I've seen is the new Ram's stadium, it's been interesting to watch it grow. Sadly while I believe both Ram's and Charger's will play there this season, I doubt if fans will be permitted. It should be beautiful, but it will be awhile before it can be used as intended. By the way, even billionaires consider costs, the Ram's owner choose to open this year, rather than last, as the cost was substantially lower to do so.
Gary
I think a green close is warranted, whether we get it or not. At this minute we're current. If they don't file on Monday, they should file for the authorized delay, which I believe they can request up to two weeks and not be considered delinquent.
We all knew the financials wouldn't be great, but we also knew they'd be a big improvement on the past, which they were. What we also know is that many new distributorships were set up during the quarter, and many more have been processed in the second quarter, and continue to be processed now. The same is true of hospital installations. This all ads up to improving future revenue, but it doesn't happen instantly.
I don't know when, or if, income from the U.K. will be specified, or if it's combined with other income and cannot be estimated. I believe it will grow, and it will be substantial, but I cannot say when we'll see it. Perhaps in time Gary will answer that question.
Gary
The best news about the quarterly is that it's finally out, and yes it's showing the growth that Gary indicated was occurring. Just skimming through it tells essentially the same story as prior financials, a lot of financial scrambling to stay in business. Key executive even accepted loans to the company rather than taking salary because of financial shortfalls. The thing is, the increasing revenue is an indication that the company is doing what Gary has said it's doing, namely turning the corner.
Will second quarter be profitable, we'll have to wait and see, possible as soon as Monday, but will it be better than first quarter, I have no doubt.
The thing is, PCTL is executing a plan of action that assures that each succeeding quarter will be better than the past. Each quarter they're adding hospitals to the list utilizing their equipment, each quarter they're adding new distributors, and each quarter they're selling more liquid products. It doesn't take much imagination to realize that once it's cash positive it won't take that long to pay off all past debt. if that's what they choose to do with the money.
The company will certainly have choices, do they spend to grow even faster, or hold off some, and pay off debt. Once the share price grows substantially, some dilution could certainly be considered, but they'll need far less stock for each million they'd like to bring in.
I believe when the second quarter is out, and Gary can freely discuss how the company is growing, be it in another podcast, or some other forum, I believe we'll be looking at new 52 week highs, and it will only get better as third quarter data comes in.
Gary
Long Term,
The unit had been described differently to me than the way you portray it. The person who seemed knowledgeable made it sound like it's a batch process in which time had to be spent preparing the unit for the next batch. The way you describe it, it could operate 24/7 as long as you keep adding the salt and keep the water and electricity flowing.
I'd really like to know how it operates properly. I was also told the capacity per hour wasn't as great as you describe, but multiple units could certainly produce that much.
DE clearly indicated planning to add additional units as demand increased, I suspect that many Level 3 distributors will do the same. If it operates in the manner you suggest, and the unit can be loaded up with sufficient salt etc to run all night, it's very possible it could rune 24/7 while only being manned for the store hours in a store that's doing a retail business.
Gary
I believe the company at one time indicated a reverse split is not a consideration. With the appreciation we should see after the trial, achieving the Nasdaq shouldn't require that much time as the company should qualify for consideration once above $2.
I believe that billions of shares outstanding is not a major concern as long as the company has a multi-billion dollar market cap, that should be the case once DCVax-L is approaching approval. Look at Apple, they have over 4 billion shares outstanding and they've just announced a 4 for 1 split that should take them over 17 billion. I'm not suggesting we'll ever grow to Apple's level, or to anywhere near 17 billion shares, but I certainly would have no reason to not give the company the right to expand the total to something greater than what's currently authorized.
Let's get the TLD and see what happens to the share price. I believe a partner will want an equity interest, so authorizing more shares could come before such an announcement, or as part of approving a partnership which may also require a shareholders vote.
I frankly don't know if the company controls so many votes that the outcome of any election is predetermined. I've seen companies that never even conducted such a vote as they controlled over 50% and could make the decision without an announcement I don't believe that's the case here, but if others know for certain, please let me know.
Gary
I believe what you need to look at in the companies financial filings is the trend. Our Annual Report was nothing great, but it was far better than the one from a year earlier. I believe the first quarter will be much better than the first quarter a year before, and better than the prior quarter. When we get second quarter it will be better than the first, and it may be the first profitable quarter. Of course we won't know until it arrives.
We know the company is expanding, largely through it's associations with Werks, but regardless of how it's done, it costs money. The money it costs however will see to it that we're making far more in the future.
I believe the list of distributors that was announced doesn't include the three new Level 3 distributors the company said they were considering. If I counted correctly they showed 12 Level 3 distributors, so 3 more would be 25% growth in that category. I don't know what the goal is for this year, but perhaps we'll be looking at 20 or more. Each Level 3 Distributor, as I see it, is a profit center for the company, they are generating product, and the company is getting paid.
We've heard from DE that it takes an effort to become a Level 3 distributor, clearly his construction is taking longer than originally thought. Some of the added distributors may already have facilities, so the time and effort required may not be as great if the equipment can be installed in existing structures, but regardless, it's still an effort that costs time, and money, but once the investment is made, and construction required is completed, it becomes a major profit center for the company.
I believe that as investors we need to recognize just how fast this company is growing. In 2019 few hospitals had PCTL's equipment, by the end of this year it could be well over 20 or more. What will the numbers be in 2021, I certainly don't know, but I wouldn't be surprised if both distributors and hospital installations are double, or more, and that's without counting the numbers from the U.K. organization.
Those are my thoughts, I certainly welcome the thoughts of others, but what I'd like to hear more than anything is some projections from the company.
Gary
I enjoy the posts from people with some expertise who believe NWBO is establishing a new paradigm for the treatment of cancer. I certainly believe it's a part of the big changes that are coming.
What I believe should be clear is, it's just a part. If it were the whole, there would be over 300 still surviving in our trial which allowed all to cross over. All I'm saying is that if we can actually cure 20% of more, it still leaves a huge target of people who aren't being cured.
I believe our vaccine should become part of the SOC for treatment, and as more cancers are tested, and our vaccines are found effective, they'll become SOC for all sorts of cancers, our market cap if we remain independent should go to triple digit billions. That however doesn't end the fight against cancer, it helps to make it a little less deadly for some of the people.
I won't be around in fifty years, but I would hope that by then strides have been made that make most cancers far less deadly, and our vaccines may very well still be part of the treatment, or perhaps it will be improvements on those vaccines. If the company's still around in 50 years, perhaps the market cap is into the trillions.
Back in the 1960's, when I was in college, two things were thought to be certain by the year 2000. One was that everything would be powered by low cost fusion reactors. The other was that cancer would be conquered. Clearly we didn't understand the complexity of either of these things back then, and while we understand much more today, I don't know that experts would say we can do it by 2100.
Last I heard, some experts don't believe that sustained fusion can be contained. I would hope that eventually pulsed fusion could be, and it would still provide cheap power, but I don't know that much work is being applied to it today. As for cancer, with each step forward we should realize that it's only a step. Until we reach the point where nearly all people with a given form of cancer are being cured, we cannot say we've cured that cancer.
I believe that DCVax-L, Direct, and others to be developed in the future are contributing to curing more, extending the lives of many others, but to do it they must be accompanied with other therapeutics. It will take improvements in these other therapeutics to cure most with cancer, so I don't believe any development should be terminated with the approval of the DCVax's until such time as that therapeutic demonstrates no additional benefit.
As always, JMHO.
Gary
Did I miss something. In my Fidelity account I saw a release from the company listing all distributors including their level. I'm surprised not to see any discussion of it here.
It seems to me the Western U.S. is wide open.
Gary
The extension would be on the second quarter, they're clearly delinquent on the first and you may be right, to get the extension authorized, they need to get it out this week.
It's been pointed out that the quarterly isn't audited, but I believe it is reviewed by the auditor, and once again that may be the rub. I tend to believe that our auditor doesn't charge nearly what the auditors of a Fortune 500 company would, but they don't perform like the major auditors do either. A decision to stay with the auditor may largely be based on both price, and their familiarity with the company. If they have a good repore with the auditor, that may give them all the reason they need to stay there. Hopefully as their revenue builds they agree to pay somewhat more to get higher priority from the auditors, and in the future they actually get things out in time.
Gary
Frankly you can't go much lower than being on the Pinks, I hardly believe they delist anyone to the point that they cannot trade. Certain brokerages may not permit you to purchase them, but years ago I was in a company that failed to issue financials for years, yet it continued to trade. All of a sudden old quarters and annual reports were issued. Next thing we knew the corporate shell was sold to a completely different sort of business. In time the corporate symbol was changed. I think I still have a few shares, they're not worth enough to bother selling.
That said, I believe it won't be long before we can move up to the OTC, a step above the Pinks. Once we're current with out financials I believe we can attempt to make that move. After that the next logical step is the AMEX, which can be achieved with a $1 share price.
Gary has stated that they'll not do a reverse split, I take him at his word on that. Frankly I believe that if by the end of the year Gary achieved over $1, which he indicated he believed he could, if he came to investors and said, we could qualify for Nasdaq at $2 because of our share structure if we did a 1 for 2 reverse split, I could support that, and I generally hate reverse splits. I wouldn't want 1 for 4 to get to $4, I'd rather wait to get on the Nasdaq. In fact I'd rather just get there in time, but if the company wished to slightly accelerate it, give me $1 and I'll certainly consider it.
We live in a world where no one worries about billions of shares being outstanding. Apple has over 4 billion shares currently, but I believe they're doing a four for one split that will take their total to roughly 17 billion shares, they'll still be over $100 a share, but see if they don't make $200 quickly after the split. Tesla's doing a five for one that will build their O/S to nearly a billion, and based on todays price it will still be over $300 a share.
In the 1990's my biggest mistake was never buying Amgen. I knew of it in 1990 when I could have bought for about $15 a share. During that decade it reached around $100 multiple times, each time it did, it split. All told by 2000 a 100 share purchase in 1990 would have been 4800 shares worth roughly half a million. Each time it split I thought they're doing great, but it can't keep going, but it did. It didn't do all that much for the next decade, but has since and today that purchase would be worth well over a million.
I believe on a percentage basis from being under a penny on December 31, 2019, we could do better than Amgen did, possibly just in this year alone. Gary didn't stop at dollar one when speaking about the potential of the stock, he spoke of the Nasdaq, and he said no split. I don't know that we can do it this year, but I certainly don't know that we can't. I believe how well we do may largely depend on just how much business goes on the books this year from the U.K. agreement. I believe the U.K. agreement is like a joker in the deck, it can bring in tens to hundreds of millions, but I have no idea how quickly it will be booked, or how much it may expand as it spreads into other European countries.
I believe that the HOCL market in say 5 years could be double or triple digit billions worldwide. If we only had 1% of that market we could be speaking about $1 billion in earnings. With a billion shares outstanding and a P/# of 30 we'd be $30 a shares. I'm not saying this will happen, just that the potential is there. Right now I believe that we also have the potential to own well over 1% of that total market. Give it time, this is a company you want to maintain a position in for many years.
Gary
I've not yet spoken with our new I-R person yet. Why? Because when I do, I'd like it to be at a time when taking the corporate line he must lie to me. I'm not suggesting he knows it's a lie that the Annual Report will be out in a few days, or the first quarter within days of the Annual, or the second quarter will be on time, that's the corporate line, and he's not going to say otherwise. I don't believe he knows it won't happen, but from what others have said, he sounded pretty convincing that things would happen, and they didn't happen close to the timeline he suggested.
Don't get me wrong, I believe most everything is going well at the company, most everything except being punctual with financials. Sometime after the second quarter financials are out, I'll give him a call. I hope that's nearly three months before the third quarter is due, I doubt if I'll press him about that.
If the company doesn't have the second quarter out by Friday, they have until Monday to ask for an extension, I believe they'd be granted two weeks, but I'm uncertain of that. Being on time is doing it without an extension, but you're not out of compliance if you ask for an extension and provide the report in the time specified in the extension.
There is much I'd like to discuss with the I-R person that doesn't include the financials. I'd like to know more about what's happening with the U.K. agreement, about how many distributors they anticipate this year, especially how many Level 3. I'd like to know if they can provide an organization chart that tells HOCL users what distributors are serving their location. Are there locations in the country that virtually are crying out for distributors. I'm frankly uncertain if I-R can discuss all that I'd like to discuss with me, but it won't prevent me from asking. I just hope that he'll use terms like, we're trying to do XXXXX, rather than we will do XXXX, by a fixed date, and they don't deliver. I know the I-R person is intended to keep investors enthused about the company, and that's fine, but enthusiasm is lost when you're lied to, it's much better to say we're striving to do something, be it tomorrow, next week, or simply on time. A person loses credibility when they say something will happen by a time specified, then fail to make it.
I very much like D.E. and believe he'll have a very successful business, additionally he'll make a great deal from the stock he's purchased. My only regret regarding his relationship with the company is that he too has been told that things would happen, and they didn't happen. He's told us what he expected, and when it didn't happen it put him in a position of losing credibility with us. I would hope that in the future whether it's from D.E., I-R, or Gary that what we hear about happens on the schedule they supply, or at least they use less firm wording when they discuss them. All companies strive to do things on time, or even early, clearly all don't make it, but it's not a lie if you say you're striving to do something at a time specific and not make it, it is a lie when you say it will happen, and it doesn't.
Gary
I can certainly understand why investors at this time, which could be minutes to days from when data lock is called, would want to purchase shares. That will be the start of a number of steps that lead to ultimately giving all a snapshot of what happened in the trial in the for of Top Line Data.
With TLD I would expect the company to briefly spell out the path forward toward approval. While a partnership, or even a buyout, could occur during that path, that they cannot say, but they can say when they anticipate to submit BLA's to the 4 regulators, or if any of the regulators are expected to expedite approval based on review the complete data.
What I cannot understand is why anyone would want to sell at this time, and at these prices. Sure, if you're a daytrader, and if you can buy and sell and profit with a penny or so in movement, but why would any investor want to sell at this time and risk not being invested when data lock is announced.
As for the other steps, I cannot say whether management will tell us when after data lock the contractors have everything together and hand it to them, certainly another step and the first time the company will see the unblinded data. If they do tell us about that, it may give us a hint at when TLD might be expected. No one expects it before Labor Day, the question is, how much later. I certainly expect we'll know well before the third quarter financials are out, but that's not until November, but in that quarterly I would think the company will be able to say a lot more about the path to approval and when the full data package will be subjected to peer review. I'm hoping it might be at SNO, which begins November 19th, if a late breaking Abstract is accepted.
Sure, it may be nearly two months, but it might be just over one, and we'll see the summary of over a decade in trials. I don't know what we'll learn, but I hope we'll know how many remain alive and the longest living of all of them. I'd hope we hear that some of these people are believed to be cancer free. In short, I believe what's said will move the decimal point in our share price one to the right, but I can't say what that first number will be. Based on today's prices I'm saying we should be over three times the current price, but ten times or more is not out of the question. Why would any investor want to be out of this stock at this time?
Gary
I frankly don't remember who indicated a new auditor would be utilized for next years annual report, I certainly would concur if that's to be the case. If it is, I believe they should be auditioning the accounting firms by having them do the review of quarterlies.
If on the other hand in spite of all the criticism of the auditor they're locked in on them, we simply must live with it. We all saw the list of how many of their clients were late. No one can really be certain if the fault lies with the auditor, the clients, or somewhere in between, which I suspect is the case.
I do believe our current share price is being held down by the financials still being delinquent, but a few months, perhaps even weeks from now it will have little or now influence on what our share price is then. Once we have the financials for the second quarter, I believe investors will really get a feel for how much the company is growing. Certainly it will get better, as we add new distributors each quarter it brings in additional revenue, as we instal more equipment in hospitals or elsewhere it adds to our revenue, finally as we see income from our U.K. contingent it adds to our revenue. Where will we be at the end of the year, I don't believe anyone knows with certainty how much our revenue will build. How many new distributors will we add? How many hospitals or other facilities will add equipment? How much fluid will be ordered? I believe all these things are growing, but how much can only be answered by time as we wait for quarterlies and other news from the company.
Gary
At the time the Dr. that AVII quoted as believing the trial wouldn't be successful I believe that was the opinion of the company as well, at least the trial as it was originally designed. That's why the trial was lengthened so OS would become the prime criteria, and why a new SAP was developed and accepted by the four regulators.
I'm certainly no expert, but I don't think you need to be to understand that the company has modified the trial while it was underway based on what they've learned during the trial. The regulators have accepted these modifications, and finally the SAP was modified to meet what should be shown in the modified trial. They couldn't unblind the trial to do this, but the things they did know, like the number of patients alive, the Top 100 statistics, etc gave them the knowledge needed to determine how the trial should be judged.
My view is that we'll be thrilled with the results, but I also feel it's possible that some defined regulator goal isn't met. There are times the regulators must open their eyes to the clear benefits, even when some of their goals fail to be reached. I believe it's far too frequent that they insist on additional trials that invariably lead to success, but cost a great deal of time and money. Perhaps more importantly, many people who could have benefitted from the drug won't, they'll no longer be with us. I can understand the regulators being extra careful when it comes to a headache medicine, etc, but not in a drug intended to extend or save the lives of someone with deadly diseases, especially when the drug in question offer a good quality of life.
Gary
He may have been right at the time, but a new SAP changes how success will be judged.
Gary
Excellent, I would like to see the moderators sticky this post.
Gary
Look at SNO, I really believe that it is where Dr. Liau will be invited to speak, even if an abstract wasn't submitted on time. I believe that they can take up to 6 late breakers.
Gary
It's out of managements hands, they've turned the contractors on to do the job and all they can do is wait for them to get the job done. The quarterly makes it clear that some of the key people in getting the trial locked did have Covid-19, it clearly slowed down a process they'd thought would be over months ago.
It seems like the IDH mutation is what's delayed things, as I understand it, the initial protocol had nothing to do with it, or it was unknown going into the trial, but it apparently is wanted, and they can get it, so they are.
Hopefully we'll hear that the trial is locked this week, or next, but it still will take many more weeks before the company is ready to release TLD.
Gary
From the 10-Q is sounds like IDH mutations are the last thing that must be resolved before the trial can be locked, all the other information is essentially locked. In the manuscript that preceded that statement it was pretty clear that some of the clinicians involved, or their families, were hit with Covid-19, and that clearly delayed collecting the clinical data. Now the IDH information is being gathered by others and it seems like just a matter of time before it's all in, and data lock is called.
From the discussion, September sounds pretty certain for TLD, but I suspect it will be late September, not just after Labor Day.
I would hope that when they issue TLD they will try to summarize in layman's language, as well as discussing certain FDA goals. I believe in layman's language the benefit of the vaccine is clear, the same may not be true if technically we failed to meet some FDA magic number.
Gary
I frankly have no idea what Ziv's next move may be, but I believe they have agreements with Israeli Hospital's to run trials on the psoriasis cream, so I hope he makes that happen. I also hope he's continuing to fight for other patents, I believe at least some of them are possible now that they've proven they can get one, for the cream.
I believe there are many possibilities here for boosting the stock price and either working to be acquired, or partnering with someone who can afford to move their technology forward.
Do I have a great deal of hope this will happen, frankly no, but I believe it's possible, and I do believe there is a good chance of benefits if the cream is tested on psoriasis and other skin diseases, I believe anecdotally they've seen it. The company would be worth a major multiple of what it is today if patients were dosed with the cream and benefits were clearly seen. They could be years from drug approval and still they'd be worth far more than they are today.
Gary
I'm uncertain, but it seems to me when the company put out the Annual Report it sounded like they put it out about a day and a half before it was posted. This could have to do with the way such things are handled for Pink sheet stocks. I believe things are much more instantaneous on the Nasdaq, etc.
If this is true, it would be possible that the 10-Q for the first quarter was dropped, but we won't learn of it until after the close today, or even before the open tomorrow. I'm not saying this is the case, but I believe people who communicated with the company found the 10-K was out a fair time before it became public.
I believe the 10-Q for the first quarter will move our trading range to $.05 and above, if the 10-Q for the second quarter is as good as many of us believe, a dime or more could easily be possible. We're currently trading for exactly $.05, with the 10-Q I doubt if we'll ever go below it again.
Gary
Thanks,
As a Dr. you might try reaching out to the company to determine just how open they are to more use under compassionate use, or right to try, which may be the proper term for the U.S. I'm uncertain, but I don't believe the company has revealed the financial required to be paid when they make the drug available, I could be wrong about that.
I have mentioned the company to my Dr. at City of Hope, he was certainly interested in what they're doing but as head of hematology I don't think he's involved with any Covid-19 patients. At this point I actually go in for labs, but then have a teleconference with him to discuss the results. I actually look forward to when we can visit again, but I can understand why he wants to work that way.
In over 40 years of doing transplants, whether you want to call them bone marrow or stem cells, this is the first time they're not doing a reunion for both donors and recipients and families. Thousands of people normally attend these reunions, I've met people who received bone marrow over 40 years ago, this would have been my 5th year reunion. When I received my transplant I watched the reunion on TV in the hospital room. My Dr. has been the M.C. for years.
I hadn't thought of it before, but I wonder if any thought has been given to the use of placental stem cells for patients where no stem cell match can be found. I don't think they'd need to be processed in the manner PSTI does, the question might be, will they mature fast enough to restart building blood as chemo has killed off all such production prior to transplantation.
Gary
I wish I were certain about what you're saying about losing virulence. A friend of mine's a nephrologist, he just learned of a patient he'd not seen checking into the hospital with it, and every member of her family having it. It's true many are asymptomatic, and I believe that's been the case from the beginning, many who spread the disease never knew they had it. I believe that's what makes this virus so much more dangerous, we only go to places where we can eat outdoors, sometimes with friends who all have been isolating. With this disease, in spite of isolating, any one of us could be an asymptomatic spreader of the disease and even outdoors it could spread while masks are down to eat.
I do believe we're getting a better handle on treatment, but as a country I suspect we could have over 300,000 dead this year, that's a horrible toal when compared with other countries. I believe schools opening will cause further spikes and frankly doubt if they'll be many that remain open for more than about a month. I hope I'm wrong, but there is very little difference in what happens in a school than in camp, and recently something like 40% of those who attended a camp were found to have Covid, apparently from an infected counselor. All it takes is one who's ill to spread to hundreds, it doesn't matter if it's in a school, camp, political rally, church, or bar, people in moderately tight places spread the disease like wildfire.
I fully believe in freedom of religion, but I also believe responsible religion doesn't put their supporters at risk. If religious leaders are unwilling to keep their congregations safe, I do believe Govt. should intervene. The fact that neither political party will even attempt to hold conventional conventions ought to tell religious leaders they cannot do it either. I frankly can't say it's better to do it on Zoom, or to broadcast over the internet, or program events on TV channels, but the key should be keeping those presenting, as well as the audience, safe.
All of the world's economies are suffering, I believe we can come out of the recession/depression Covid-19 has caused with working vaccines and better therapeutics, but it will take time. I suspect that practically all of the worlds govts. will need to provide grants to fund the reopening of many of the businesses that have closed. Without that it will simply take longer and many prior businesses will be vacant, the property owners will suffer, some may be foreclosed. Certainly it's debt that isn't desirable, but it may be cheaper to the Govt. to go further into debt to build the economy faster than allowing a recession/depression to be sustained for years.
I believe that people who can show that they've owned businesses that were successful for many years, that they've employed many people, invested what they could to stay in business, but ultimately surrendered to Covid-19 should be the ones who should be able to get grants. Loans are fine for people just getting into new businesses, but grants should be authorized for those who by no fault of their own lost businesses to Covid-19.
Gary
I believe L.P. would continue to run the company, but it would be with the advice of the BP partner. She would know full well that if they cannot agree on something her decision could be overturned. Normally agreement is reached, shareholders rarely see an dissention even if there is some.
Certain things rightfully come down to a shareholder vote, it doesn't necessarily mean the BP partner and the company don't agree, most of the time a vote is only because the SEC requires voting on certain things.
LP will be a very wealthy woman once a partnership has occurred, she'll also have assured the success of the company, the question may be, would she like to retire in leisure, or does she want the action involved in running the company. At that point she would no longer be scrambling for funding.
I would suspect she might stay until after regulatory approval, then the question might be, does she want to prove she can do it again with DCVax-Direct. Direct should be far easier as she'll no longer be scrambling to fund trials.
Gary
I predict that we'll know about your first in the next week, and if you're talking cents, you could be right about your second, if dollars I suspect you're off by at least a couple years.
Gary
Hank, I believe a partner buying in will pay several billion. I would hope that they establish a floor for the share price at $5 or more, but it's up to the company as to what they'll accept, and how much of the company they're willing to sell. A $5 share price with them owning a third of the company would put our market cap at $15 billion, while if it's 20% they're buying at $5 it puts us at $25 billion. I believe somewhere in this range is justified.
A partner with 20% or greater interest in the company would largely have control of the company. They would certainly get one or more seats on the Board, but if they wished to force something to a shareholder vote, they would be near impossible to defeat, especially if they were allied with Institutions they encouraged to invest.
Of course everything depends on the strength of what's in the data. Any potential partner will be able to see everything from the trial under confidentiality terms. In fact if any such agreements are already in place, once the trial is locked, those with confidentiality agreements could actually see the data before the company did. I certainly don't know if any agreements are in place, because of Duffy if anyone has such an agreement, it's Merck, but it may not be the case. I'm of the belief that Roche would be interested, as well as Merck, no doubt there are others as well. In other companies, I believe they announced signing such agreements, but they never said with who, or how many. In almost every case, once told that confidentiality agreements were in place, a partnership eventually occurred, but sometimes it took over a year.
Gary
While I certainly agree with you, I think we'd all be surprised by how many people invest based on what Cramer says. I know people who tried for some time to get a question to him about a company, mainly just to call peoples attention to that company, regardless of what Cramer might say about it.
Frankly after seeing Kudlow appearing on many network shows this morning, I'd put more faith in what Cramer said than Kudlow. He was stumbling all over himself in trying to explain how something he said in the past is completely wrong based on what he's saying today.
I'd love to believe we were in a "V" shaped recovery, but I believe we've made the mistake of opening too quickly, and that those schools that do reopen will be shut in a matter of weeks as they become the sight of major infectious spread of the disease.
I don't know precisely what percentage of our economy are providing services like waiters, trainers, hairdressers, etc, but I can't see the recovery approaching the employment levels prior to Covid-19 until all the people working in these largely service sector jobs can return to doing so safely in indoor venues. While it may be nice going to dinner outdoors in August, or having your hair cut, etc outdoors now, it won't be very comfortable doing so by October or November in many places. A recovery needs employment to be sustained, and that means moving businesses that have managed to move outdoors back indoors safely. I'm afraid this can't happen until we get the vaccine to the majority of American's and have enough experience with it to believe it's really effective. Hopefully by sometime in Spring of 2021 people will start to feel that some degree of normalcy has returned. I hope that SBA or someone will bankroll what previously were successful restaurant owners, gym owners, etc to reopen businesses that folded because of Covid-19 because they couldn't get the funds necessary to survive. It's hard to stay in business when there is no business, Govt. rightfully caused them to shut down as thousands were being infected when they were open, but they're desirable services once the fear is gone. I don't believe the owners of such businesses will have the resources to reopen unless the Govt. provides the seed money to do so.
Gary
I know, I was giving him the benefit of the doubt that he misspoke. I cannot understand how on one hand he can forecast a $1 share price at the end of the year, yet provide such a low sales, or earnings number.
We'll see much more of what the truth may be when we get second quarter figures. First quarter may say something, but second ought to show tremendous growth, and third substantially more. Of course even if third is right on time we'll only have about a month and a half until the end of the year, and the annual data won't be due for roughly 3 months. If we're $1 by the end of the year, it will be driven by third quarter results and any presentations that are made subsequent to it.
I believe that by the end of the year the company will have quite a story to tell, the question is, what venues can they tell the story on. If by chance they get coverage from one of the major broadcast networks, or a story in a major newspaper like the Wall St. Journal or New York Times, our share price could go through the roof. I won't say it hurts to be covered on podcasts, etc, but you can pay to get such exposure. I don't believe you can pay for network, or major newspaper coverage in a story. Of course it's possible to buy a commercial where you choose, but that's not worth nearly what a story on the company that's done because of what the company is doing to make our world safer to live in is. There are many ways of sanitizing just about anything, but I believe as investigative reporters look into what's best, they'll arrive at the conclusion that HOCL is the smartest way to do it, and PCTL's system for administering when and where it's used is the best such system.
Gary
When we look at today's share price I believe we must conclude that most biotech investors don't believe in NWBO's technology. Whether they don't think vaccines are the answer, or personalized drug, or it's just NWBO they don't like is uncertain, but clearly if they expected more from TLD, the share price would be dramatically higher. In other sites I've chatted with other biotech investors, and clearly, I'm the only one who believes we'll be highly successful.
I believe all this will. change once TLD has been revealed. I believe that people like Adam F will try to make it sound like he's been on the bandwagon all along. Whether you like him, or not, if we're selling over the threshold price established by Cramer, I think it may be $3 or $4, but I'm not certain, I'd not be surprised to see our CEO appearing on his show.
My point is, we're hopefully just a matter of weeks from making the move from what most biotech investors believe is a very risky investment, to one which most believe will gain approval and be highly successful. TLD will largely tell that tale, but it's what happens after that which can give us the biggest boost, that's the concurrence of a BP who gets involved either by partnership, or buy attempting a buyout.
I believe that something will happen from BP prior to the submission of a BLA to any of the regulators, which based on the recent presentation by the company will be before the end of the year. If this proves to be the case, I believe by year end we'll be no less than a ten banger from where we are today, but fifty times or more isn't out of the question. Of course if it's a buyout, that to could occur before year's end and then we wouldn't exist at all, but we'd all be a lot wealthier.
Gary
You may not follow Cramer, I don't, but people do. People get excited over a company being given a presentation on Cramer and I believe the greatest benefit is the exposure of the company to a lot of investors who've never heard of it.
I frankly rarely watch any of the financial networks. When I have watched I never fail to be amazed that people listen to Analysts who often show big losses from their recommendations in the prior quarter, month, whatever. Most Analysts work for Brokerages, and they push whatever stock the Brokerage is working. More often than not the Brokerage is managing a funding effort by the company, so they have stock to sell.
Right now our stock market is doing well largely because the FED has made money so cheap that those with money continue to invest. I don't disagree with them, and naturally it's what Trump wants as well, but what Covid-19 is causing will have the economy depressed for years to come, whether we call it a depression, or not. I feel for all the businesses that will never reopen, but hopefully within a few years something will open in their place. I believe once we have a vaccine and things improve dramatically, it will be found that many jobs previously done in office space will continue to be done out of the office with only occasional staff meeting rather than daily work in the office. Of course places like gyms, restaurants and bars will be reestablished, but with many going out of business, it will take time. I hate to see places we loved to eat at closing with out of business signs, but we've seen a lot of them.
NWBO shouldn't dramatically be effected by the economy, if they gain approval, and/or a partnership, and/or a buyout, investors will be very well served. With approval I believe their vaccines are blockbuster products, and in time, especially as other cancers are demonstrated to also benefit, the annual revenue could easily go into double digit, and in time triple digit billions. If the company continues to trade independently, a decade or less from now triple digit stock prices are very possible.
Gary
thegreencandle,
You could be right if the $4 million plus in earnings Gary provided in the last podcast he did proves true, it would justify about a $.20 cent price based on a P/E of roughly 30, which would be justified on increasing earnings with each quarter. I believe that Gary was being extremely conservative, and perhaps only speaking to what the company may earn from direct sale of their products.
The real long term money in PCTL will largely come from its distributors, not so much the product they're selling themselves. While we've never been given precise figures for what Level 1, 2, or 3 distributors pay to become distributors, we know they do pay. As I understand it, only Level 3 get product generators, which they continue to pay for each month, all others have the right to purchase, and resell product supplied by the company under varying terms. The point is, as the distributor network builds, PCTL just keeps making more money each month. The only additional work they do for these distributors is either supplying more fluid, which the pay for, or supplying new equipment, like hospital units, where they lease it in new hospitals, and both the company and distributor get paid. b
In short, with each new distributor added, at any level, the monthly income should go up incrementally. I think we need to look at PCTL-U.K. like they're a super distributor, as they come on line with sales or leases in the U.K. and other European business they become a huge cash cow for PCTL.
I believe that Gary's projection that we'll be $1 or better by year's end is more accurate than the $4 million figure he floated. Gary might come up short of $1, but I believe the company will do far better than the $4 million figure he cited. On the other hand, if we did end the year at $.20, given that December 31, 2019 I purchased for under $.007, it would still be roughly a 30X gain year over year, not a bad gain by any measure.
Gary
I very much respect what you're trying to do. Have you got the companies concurrence to supply all the drug under compassionate use terms if the hospitals agree to do this. I suspect that would be the rub, until an EUA is authorized, all use of PLX-PAD outside the ongoing trial are based on compassionate use. I don't know that PSTI has provided the cost information to the Govt. to charge for compassionate use, so it would be drug they're supplying for free.
I would hope that the trial is well ahead of what's shown on the clinical trials website and that the results are so convincing to get an EUA on its completion. Remember it's only a Phase 2 Trial and only half the total patients are getting the drug. While I disagree with the placebo, especially in unconscious patients, which I believe is the case with ventilator patients, but I guess the idea is the clinicians don't know who's getting the drug, and who the placebo. I don't believe the intent is to fool the Dr., rather it's to see if there is a placebo effect in patients and I don't know how that happens if patients are unconscious to receiving the placebo.
I frankly don't know if it's the company, or govt. agencies that seem to be taking so much time getting the trial moving rapidly, hopefully it's moving fast, and they're simply not saying so, but the update on clinical trials doesn't even state that the two hospitals that hadn't been recruiting before are now. I had expected an update to add many more sites that were recruiting, clearly the update just isn't true, or someone isn't giving the trial much priority.
Gary
I don't see why people have a high regard for an appearance on Cramer, while putting down a show like this. Cramer won't bring on a guest for a stock that it's selling for dollars, but how different are these clowns than Cramer. It's entertainment as well as investment advice and they're not that different.
Perhaps in a few months someone from NWBO will be invited to speak with Cramer, than people will get excited, it could be LG, or LP, but what would be said would be an update on what LG just said based on the facts revealed by unblinding the trial. Frankly I liked what I heard from LG and was a bit surprised about how quickly he believed they could get actions from the regulators.
While I hope that the FDA's accelerated approvals caused by Covid-19 spreads through all of the FDA, I don't know that it's a fact. I still believe the FDA is very much like Congress, either can take 6 months or more to determine how to make a soft boiled egg.
Gary
I would just once like to see Analyst's give estimates based on the potential of something happening. Something like, if PSTI's PLX-PAD proves to work in Covid-19, it's market cap should be in billions of dollars. If it fails, the price might fall to $5, but long term approval in CLI is anticipated, and billion dollar market caps will be in it's future.
I believe if you could ask the analysts what PSTI should be worth with success in Covid-19 most would say billions for the market cap, why can't they say it in their Analysts estimates.
Gary
I would hope that the first quarter is filed very early in the week, and ideally the second quarter by Thursday if this week. Why, because it's bad news that's best dumped after the close on Friday, good news as early in the week as possible so brokers can work with it in speaking to clients.
If fact, while technically delinquent, if the second quarter isn't ready by Thursday morning, I'd rather see it filed on Monday, slightly late, but good timing rather than Friday, especially after the close.
In the long term none of this really matters, PCTL will trade for much more as revenue proves that it should. A month from the filing little should be different whether it's filed on a Friday, Monday, or anywhere in between, but short term the advantage of filing earlier in the week typically makes for a better week.
Gary
I believe the way the warrants are structured that by November we'll be looking to approve a partnership which will require authorizing sufficient additional share to cover both the partner taking a substantial position, as well as all the warrants converting to shares.
I would hope that the partner takes an equity position of somewhere between 20% and 30% of the company, with half the shares being purchased from shareholders tindering shares, while the other half are newly authorized shares, bringing billions into the company.
The authorized shares should rise to 2 billion, but only approximately 1.5 billion would be outstanding with the warrants converted and the partner taking 10% to 15% of the total O/S from newly issued shares. This should give the company substantial funds, as well as the potential of financial flexibility for the future. Hopefully additional trials would be started for both the expansion of the DCVax-L label, and a registrational Phase 2 for DCVax-Direct.
Gary
I'm of the belief that data lock is days away, and it can bring higher prices. That said, it's not unusual in similar situations in other stocks for them to do a dilutive funding, essentially it's a gift to Institutional Investors that companies like to have owning their stock.
Not many Institutions invest in stocks at this price, but with TLD anticipated before fourth quarter, an Institution that's not supposed to be in stocks under $1 can buy into such an offering, if it achieves $1 by September 30th, they hold, if not they sell the stock, maintaining the warrants, and nothing need be reported as I understand the regulations they operate under. I believe the odds are reasonably in their favor of a $1 or more after TLD is released.
It's predictable that the news hits after the close on Friday, perhaps we'll see data lock prior to the open Monday, but if not I think it's likely next week. Hopefully this is the last month that doesn't have a number in front of the decimal point at the end of the month.
Gary
I hope you're right, I've never seen one done in under about 4 months.
Gary
Look at the clinical trials site, it was updated July 29th as I remember it and they indicate completion moved to December. Why would they do that if what you're saying is true.
You may be right, they're trying to surprise the competition, but I suspect that if that's the case, it's investors who don't know what's happening, the competition have their sources in most clinical sites and know what's happening, at least to some degree.
Gary