Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
I agree that the CRO gathers it all in, but as Lead Clinician doesn't Dr. Liau communicate with the other clinicians and tell the CRO that they are ready, or that some information is still being sought after.
Flipper,
I'll agree that the company would have told Dr. Liau to end the trial and collect the data, I believe that happened some time ago. What I'm saying is that after that decision was made, it was up to Dr. Liau to have all the other clinician gather up all the necessary data, and because some data is not yet available they can't do a hard lock.
You're certainly right that if the company wished the trial to run longer, it would, but they don't, they do want it over. I don't know if it's all being held up by just one clinician who hasn't yet been able to get one single thing, or if it's bigger than that, but something they want clearly isn't yet available. A soft lock should permit the contractor to put together all but whatever the missing pieces are.
At this point, I believe the company would be thrilled to get the data, but they understand that it needs to be complete, so they'll not call hard lock until it is.
Gary
Tomorrow's not a market day as we celebrate the 4th of July over the long weekend. I regret the way we need to celebrate it, essentially staying at home and watching fireworks on TV, though I admit I enjoy the Macy's 4th of July show, I normally tape it and watch after a show in Marina del Rey. Here in California, almost all local shows have been cancelled, restaurants and bars are again shut down, etc. Hopefully they can get the curve back down.
The news is filled with people violating guidelines, and the growing infections are a clear indication that this needs to stop. I believe the beaches are reasonably safe, but they too are closed because people insist on not using them that safely.
I just heard that a new, more infectious mutation of coronavirus has been found, it's not more deadly, but it adds to the complication.
We are playing with dynamite as people sue to not wear masks in Florida, people are holding Covid-19 parties and betting on who'll get sick, in short, we're daring Covid to infect us, and Covid-19 will win in such scenarios. It's unfortunate, but unless we get serious about stopping it, deaths will not stop until we're up by hundreds of thousands more, or possibly into the million plus numbers. PCTL's sanitizing may help, but only if people get serious about stopping the disease.
Gary
The best thing I believe we'll be able to say about the financial portion of the Annual Report is that it's done. Hopefully there will be some guidance for the future that's far more positive than the financial portion of the report. Let's hope it gets out after the bell today.
To me, too much emphasis is being placed on the overdue reports, they will happen, and we'll be current at least for awhile. I would hope that in the future they'll do a better job getting it out on time, but what's clear is that the company is growing. If getting out timely earnings gets in the way of corporate growth, I can understand delaying the filing.
Gary
Please correct me if I'm wrong, I'm thinking that Dr. Liau would have told all the other clinicians what was needed to lock the data, and it's Dr. Liau that will tell the company it's time to do it. The company may be pushing her to get the other clinicians to act, but I'm thinking it's largely out of the company's hands.
The company has committed to telling us when it happens, but if there is needed information outstanding, I don't believe they can order it anyway. I do however believe they can order the soft lock, allowing their contractor to collect all the available data and go to work on it, then when the missing data is available, they only need to add that much to finalize their report. I believe soft lock was done some time ago.
If I'm correct, when Dr. Liau learns the last of the data is in, she'll tell the company, and they can announce data lock.
Gary
Gary's podcast and other things he's said simply don't have consistency. He's said on more than one occasion that trading for $1 without a reverse split was anticipated, that certainly doesn't square with $4 million in sales, or even earnings. What we know about fluid sales seems to say that alone will be over $4 million. We then must consider equipment sales and leases.
I frankly can't say how distributorships work, I'm sure they're not free, but I'm not sure if they're buying, or leasing the equipment they use to make fluids, or the equipment they may sell to hospitals or other customers. It's been said that the hospital unit leases for $7000 a month, I'd like to see that verified, I think a Roll Royce would lease for less than that, so the price makes me curious. I understand it's a very special piece of equipment, I'd just like to see confirmation of what it leases, or sells for.
We know the U.K. will be getting a tremendous amount of the equipment that's being manufactured. We don't know the terms, or the payment arrangement, but you can bet, the company will be paid. I would suspect that the U.K. alone could result in $4 million in profit, but the only proof will be in doing it.
People here are buying HOCL by the gallon, we know it's not cheap. The company and it's distributors are generating tens of thousands of gallons daily. I don't know how much money the company is paid for each gallon a distributor makes, but we know they pay something, even if it is only $1 a gallon, that's tens of thousands daily, plus all the money they earn from generating HOCL themselves.
We're half way through the year, so roughly 130 working days remain. Let's just say that the distributors all make a combined 10,000 gallons a day, and they only work the 5 business days a week, that would be 1,300,000 gallons. While I believe the company makes $over $1 for each gallon made by the distributor, let's say it doesn't so that's $1.3 million for HOCL from distributors, pure profit as the company pays nothing for the distributors to make it. During the same period, the company's making an equal amount, but allowing for operating costs lets say they clear $5 a gallon, that's $6.5 million, all totalled that's $7.8 million, but remember, that's for 6 months. They haven't been on vacation the first 6 months, so lets say it was less, but combined lets put it at $12 million all profit. Does this seem like a reasonable estimate for fluid alone, I believe it's very conservative.
Now lets look at the equipment being put into hospitals. We know about 20 or so already equipped, and based on what Gary suggested, 2 to 3 hospitals a month more, that puts us somewhere in the 30's or higher in U.S. hospitals, and let's say the average is something over 2 units per hospital. Say the total installed in the U.S. is 70 units. Let's say we're way off about $7000 a month to lease each unit, what if the company makes just $20,000 a year. That would be $1.4 million from those units next year, but say $1 million this year. Once again, I believe these are very conservative figures, feel free to disagree. This has our total at $13 millions of pure profit for the year.
Finally we're supplying approximately 20 or more units a month, on average, for 6 months, that's 120 units. We don't know the arrangement, but if we allow $20K pure profit for each, that would be $2.4 million. Let's just call it $2 million for a grand total of $15 million in earnings. Let's say our O/S grows to 600 million, that's substantial growth. This comes out to earning $.025 a share, with a P/E of 30 we're at $.75.
I believe all these estimates are conservative, in fact double or better is very possible. Ask DE, I believe most Level 3 distributors are making more fluid by far than what I allowed for fluid, I also think the company may get more than $1 a gallon for the fluid it's distributors produce, if I'm correct, this is a very conservative estimate.
Please feel free to tell me where I've exaggerated what the company might be expected to earn.
Gary
Back a few years ago, Elon Musk was in financial trouble when Tesla slipped into the $200 range due to huge margin calls. I honestly don't know if he was forced to sell some of his holdings, but it demonstrates how even billionaires can have immediate financial problems.
I frankly cannot justify Tesla's current price, I believe they're fantastic cars, but I believe as a corporation they've had few profitable quarters. Much like PCTL, they invest shares and borrow to expand the company, and they've frankly changed the auto industry. I believe that if not bought out, PCTL can change the sanitizing industry in much the same way. No ones going to look at the gallon bottle like they do a Tesla, but our products will make a lot of places safer to be in.
Unfortunately, right now many places will either be closing back down, or won't be opening up if they planned to as the numbers are going the wrong way. I certainly hope we can get this under control by September, I would hate to see football cancelled. Frankly it's going to be weird seeing baseball and basketball without crowds. As a Ram's and Charger's fan I look forward to seeing the new stadium, but it might be next season before they allow people to watch games there. I frankly don't see a reason why say 10% of the fans in masks couldn't be spread out in a stadium, but those sort of compromises don't seem to be in play. What's sad is that I'd be hard pressed to guess how many people would be employed at a stadium that's filled and is offering concessions, these people don't make close to what the athletes do, but the numbers are huge, and it may be a year or so before they'll be working again.
If the new stadium were open with fans, after the game, spraying everywhere with HOCL based electrostatic sprayers would seem like a prudent thing to do. I wonder if a massive device could be built that would electrostatically fog the entirety of an indoor stadium. Of course you still need a clean up crew after a game, but if you could fog the stadium first, the risk to them would be greatly eliminated.
Gary
Sukas,
The tactics no doubt worked, if they didn't it wouldn't be happening. Hopefully longs who participate here understand what they have, and they won't be faked out by such actions.
Don't get me wrong, while I've never been a day-trader, I've known some who've done well with it, I've know others who routinely trade, not true day-traders, who close out the day owning nothing, but people who will sell in the belief that they can buy back in at slightly less than they sold for.
I hate to think about the tax considerations, but if they're in a Roth IRA is would work well, if they're right in their timing. I don't like being out of a stock I like overnight, as most news comes before the open in the morning, or after the close at night. Personally I rarely get up at 6:30 in the morning here in L.A., normally one to two hours later. When I awake, I'll look at the quotes, and if up, or down substantially, I'll try to find the reason.
Let's see when we get the 10-K and Q, it will happen, the only question is, when. This is a case where the news is both bad, and good, bad because last year, and last quarter were not profitable, good because they'll be out and that's what most investors want, they really don't care what's in them.
Personally, I care far more about current and future related language being used in the quarterly than the actual data for the last year of quarter. I don't care about the tremendous history that's usually included in these documents. If it were up to me, such history could be found on either an SEC or corporate database that was open to all, but I'd like to see the filing only be about the time in question and the forecast for the future. The last thing I need is all the SEC imposed language about the risks of investing. Again, I'm fine with referencing an SEC site explaining all the risks of investing, I just don't believe it must be quoted in every quarterly and annual report.
Can anyone remember Annual Reports when they were pleasant to read, they were generally printed like magazines, had a lot of positive information about the company, and yes they did have the financials. I'd like seeing that sort of report, but getting the report on line I don't know that they'll ever get simpler. When they don't pay by the words, companies are perfectly happy with reports that are hundreds of pages, most that will never be read. Personally, I will skim through the report, but really only read a tiny fraction of what's in the report, the parts I'm interested in.
Gary
We all know that the Annual Report for last year isn't going to be a very positive one, the company clearly lost money last year. That said, the best day to release bad news is after the close on a three day weekend. That's not to say that it will happen that way, but if it does, it's not bad timing. In fact they could file the 10-Q at the same time if they wished as we know that while March was profitable, January and February weren't.
Gary
Anders,
This clearly has been a very complex trial, but I'm really not certain the company is responsible for the organization, I believe more of the responsibility falls on the lead clinician. I have great respect for Dr. Liau, but it's possible that she either didn't tell the other clinicians to do something that's needed, or perhaps just one, or a couple of them simply failed to do what they had been told to do. At this point it doesn't matter who did what, not as long as what's needed can be recovered. Yes it's taking added time, but after more than a decade in trials, I think we should all be able to live with a few extra weeks.
I'd be willing to bet that a soft lock was done some time ago and that by now something in excess of 90% of the needed data has been gathered in. When they announce hard lock, I don't believe it will take that long before the company gets the report. We won't know until it happens, but if hard lock is called by early next week, I believe TLD is possible by mid July and beyond. What's in TLD is far more important than what day we get it.
I was telling my wife earlier today that if we see good news on this or other stocks that I believe have similar potential we probably would be hard pressed to find places to spend it. Travel is restricted, and even if it weren't, it wouldn't be much fun. Fine dining is out, unless you want to carry it home. Cruises, forget it. I'd consider a new car, but even that would be pocket change based on the potential gain. I'll still welcome the good news, and hope that I can stay healthy enough that safe travel will again be a consideration.
Gary
I know people have talked with Gary and been told the 10-K should have been issued prior to now, I believe he said it in good faith. I've got to believe that some conflict exists between the company, and the auditors, and if they did deliver the report to the company to review, whatever changes the company requested weren't made to the satisfaction of the company.
I used to have a boss who would look at a memo and say, I don't like it. I was new to the organization I'd ask what he didn't like, he'd suggest changing a couple words, and it was done. The senior people would never ask, they'd rewrite the entire thing, and still often get the same reply, and again they wouldn't ask what he didn't like. I cannot say how much time was wasted, but people's pride got in the way of asking a simple question, and having a meaningful dialogue. In time I actually became the boss of that group, and hopefully I didn't waste time by not telling people what I thought should be changed. I hope we're not in the same sort of relationship with the auditors.
Gary
People make it sound like LP is responsible gathering the needed data herself. She isn't, she can only request the clinicians who've done the trial to do so. The company may pay for their efforts, but we're not the only company paying them, and in a Covid-19 world, others are also telling them where to put their priorities. When she estimated how much time it would take I think she would have checked with the people responsible, but that doesn't mean that none of their priorities changed, or that one or more of them may have acquired the disease.
I believe we're getting close, but I don't know that there is anything she can do to force some action by someone who doesn't really work directly for her. If something I'm saying above is wrong, please let me know, but that's how I believe things are run in such a trial.
As I remember it, data lock is anticipated toward the end of the week, with Friday a market holiday, if we don't get it tomorrow I'd expect it to move to next week, but who knows, perhaps she'll provide the fireworks by announcing it on the 4th of July.
Gary
I fear BP buying a new paradigm in treatment can be much like a petroleum company purchasing a major energy saver to commercialize it, that's often the last you ever hear of the technology.
That's another reason I'd prefer the company not doing more than a partnership until the full potential is understood. I really believe the BP much prefers their mass produced drugs to anything that's personalized. I just hope the company will take it far enough to know that BP can't quash it.
Gary
While I agree with all you're saying, I believe the real question here ought to be, do we ever consider a buyout before we know just how many cancers can benefit from our vaccines.
$20 billion may be a fair price for what we know today or will know after TLD is revealed, but if a year from now DCVax-Direct showed evidence that it worked for a few different cancers, what would you value it then. How about if DCVax-L is tested in a few more cancers anecdotally and seen to be effective, what then.
I certainly wouldn't turn down $5 billion for a 25% position, that money could be used to accelerate trials that would lead to a much higher share price, but I wouldn't sell the company for $20 billion without knowing more. If in fact our vaccines provide benefits in multiple cancers, a share price in excess of $100 could easily be possible, and it wouldn't take that long to reach. Once each vaccine is approved, anecdotal evidence of it's effectiveness in other cancers will lead to off label use before trials result in label expansion.
Of course it won't be me making the decision, I'm uncertain if shareholders would have to vote in a buyout situation. Others have said it was something that LP wanted for $20 billion or more, and she could certainly recommend it to investors, I just don't know that investors wouldn't rather hang on for even bigger numbers.
Gary
When we speak of Progression Free Survival,(PFS) it ends when a patient is deemed to have progressed. If that person actually pseudoprogressed, it would have improperly have been called. It's very possible that a patient was deemed to have progressed after say 12 months, and has lived for years, even decades, the PFS would only be 12 months as that what was diagnosed, while the patient may still be alive today. Perhaps the patient would be re-examined, I'm not certain of that, but Overall Survival (OS) is still ongoing for all the survivors, many of them might live their normal lives.
This trial might have been over far sooner if in the beginning they knew all about pseudoprogression, and been able to differentiate between pseudoprogression, and actual progression from the beginning of the trial. Had that been the case, it may have been ended based on PFS rather than OS, but I believe that progression had been diagnosed for patients, some who may still be alive, who actually had pseudoprogression.
I believe it was clear to the company that people were living dramatically longer and they made a determination to make the trial judged primarily on OS.
Gary
I believe that shareholder equity will dramatically change after TLD is issued, I don't think that issue would be a problem then. The $4 price may not be a problem either, but $2 should be a cinch.
I don't believe we'll go it alone for very long after TLD is announced, well before we've done a BLA I believe we'll have a partner. That occurring will almost certainly put our price above $4 so a Nasdaq listing can come then, if we haven't already achieved it.
On the subject of the CEO not caring about the share price, I'll agree that she doesn't try to counter the ebb and flow in the market, she has her eye on the prize, producing positive results and gaining drug approval, she knows that if she does that, investors will be very well rewarded, and of course so will she.
Many years ago my broker called because he didn't know why a stock was up dramatically, nor did the CEO, who he was speaking with. He called me because he knew I was on the net, which he wasn't permitted to do at the time, and wanted to know if I'd seen something. My point is, the companies are concerned, whether they can do anything about it, or not. I believe that day we found a positive article had been issued by someone who clearly had many followers, but I didn't know it at the time of his call.
I believe LP has someone looking at what's being said on the net, perhaps not every post, but sufficient to know the sentiments. I don't believe she lets criticism get to her, decisions are made based on what she views best for the country, not what investors are saying. The data lock will come, but not until she's aware that all the information the contractor needs is available. I don't think we're very far away, but she won't call hard lock until everything needed is available.
Gary
Druggie,
While I certainly hope you're right, and you may be on emotion, a $10 stock price equates to nearly a $10 billion market cap once all warrants are converted. I believe there have been very few biotechs that have sustained market caps of $10 to $20 billion by themselves before drug approval. I emphasize the by themselves, if a partner comes in for a share of the company, it would establish the market cap for the company, and that could very well go to $20 billion or more.
Say for instance a partner took 25% of the company for $5 billion up front, that would immediately put our market cap at $20 billion. I can't say that will happen, but believe it's possible.
I also believe that when the news comes out on TLD, when people see a stock that's trading for anywhere in the dollar range will purchase on emotion, and no telling how high they'll bid it up to, $20 isn't out of the question. When reality sets in, I suspect the market cap will not be stable above $5 billion unless a partner comes in to reinforce the value of the stock.
Certainly post approval a market cap that goes to hundreds of billions is possible if our vaccine are proven to have benefits in multiple cancers, but that requires more trial, and that will take time. We don't need approvals in multiple cancers, just enough clinical proof that Doctors are using the vaccines off label. The approvals will come in time.
Gary
In another stock an investor posted criteria in which the Nasdaq will list a company with a $2 stock price, I believe that same criteria will apply here. I believe that once we have TLD we'll see prices that will meet that criteria, and most certainly if we partner we could well meet even the $4 criteria.
I hate R/S's, I've yet to see one where the initial reaction wasn't a substantial drop in the market cap. Certainly in time companies come back, but why do it in the first place. This company can have amazing success without any such action. If in the future, at substantially higher prices more shares need to be authorized, no problem, stockholders should agree, but the key is, at substantially higher prices. If you don't believe that works, you only need to look as far as Apple, and of course there are many other companies with multiple billions of shares outstanding.
Gary
That's essentially what I figured based on $4 million in profits. I believe that they could do better than that, but also that they will take on debt and may issue some shares to expand the business.
The key to the company is tremendous growth, that is occurring, I believe it is still in its its infancy.
Gary
We've yet to see real earnings, the overdue annual report will show losses for last year, the overdue first quarter should show improvements, but Gary didn't sound like the earnings in March would overcome the losses in January and February. We know there has been a great deal of improvement financially, but you need to remember the price was sub penny on December 31st of last year.
This is a growing company, but they need to get the financials out, and it will be much more apparent in the second, third, and fourth quarter. Just give it time, let things they have in the works happen.
Every month they're installing new units in hospitals, they're adding distributors, and they're selling more fluids. Now they're ramping up production and at some point we'll see not only hospital installations in the U.S., but also in the U.K., and we'll get an accounting for what they're paying. Just give it time, you'll be happy.
Gary
When I came up with $.21 it was based on earnings of $4 million. I believe it's clear that we have reason to believe we'll earn much more than $4 million, but that was the number used in the podcast.
Right now we essentially have a mystery. We know that Gary Grieco indicated an average of 2 to 3 hospitals added each month in the U.S. but we also know he said beginning in July they planned on making 25 units a month, and he actually said growing 40% each month thereafter. While I doubt if they can achieve 40% growth month after month, I did look at producing 5 more than the past month each month, and I think that's achievable. If you figure 10 units a month for 2 to 3 hospitals in the U.S., that's a lot of units that would go to the U.K. I don't know the price tag for all those units, but I believe it will be in the millions when it's paid. Because we know so little about the U.K. agreement, we really have no idea when they pay, it could be any time from, before we ship, to after the units installed and is operating. My point is, I believe we'll be bringing in a lot of money from the U.K., I just don't know when.
I did speculate in another post that they may be using shipping containers to transport multiple units to the U.K. I don't know how many they can put in a single shipping container, but if they're not fully assembled, it's possible that perhaps 100 units could fit in a single container. My point is, it could take several months of production to fill a single container, and that could mean a big payoff after several months. Of course it's also possible they're air transported individually, that's all part of the mystery. What's important is that we will be paid, whether we're paid for each unit individually delivered 100 times, or one payment for 100 units shipped together, we will be paid.
Gary
Thanks, I can see that. Once PSTI has approval to use PLX-PAD on ventilator, I suspect our market cap will exceed a billion. At that point, issuing a few million shares to support such a trial would be money well spent. I would hope they'd open it to pneumonia, regardless of the cause.
I believe that once they had a peek at the data, designed to be taken perhaps 1/3rd of the way through the trial, if positive, I believe even insurance companies would go along with off label use as long as there is sufficient proof to show the benefit. The key of course is gaining the FDA approval from the Covid-19 Trial.
I would also suspect that if they had approval, CLI and other indications under trial would get off label use until actual approval occurred there as well. In all my treatment at City of Hope I know that several drugs I was on weren't specifically approved for the leukemia I had. COH seemed to have no problem getting the drugs approved for my use covered by insurance. In most cases they didn't even discuss it with me, just ordered the drugs and in a few cases it took a few days to get them, but ultimately I always did.
When the current Covid-19 trial releases preliminary data, I believe if it's as good as we believe it should be, the regulators will grant the authority to use it. I'm not certain that this constitutes full FDA or other approval. To your knowledge will they have to go back and submit a BLA or NDA and go through a lengthy approval process to gain full approval, or should the emergency authorization constitute approval.
Gary
To those knowledgeable about these warrants, is today the last day they can be cashed in. If that's the case, tomorrow should be a much better day.
If that's the case, by this time in the day it would seem that all warrants would have been dealt with unless some holders have market orders staged at the close. I don't know if MM's must honor such orders if it causes an imbalance, and if they halted trading on such an imbalance, would the warrants be worthless because of expiring.
The shares seem to be recovering a bit, perhaps the warrant manipulations are over. I doubt if we'll close green, but not down nearly as much as just a few minutes ago.
Gary
Aren't there people among the regulators in European countries that the FDA would trust to make the inspection. Shouldn't European approval occur even if U.S. delays are still the case.
I'm relatively new to the stock, but not to biotechs, and the FDA has often frustrated me in the past. We've not yet been locked out of Europe, though it's apparently happening soon, this inspection could have been done over the past months had they chosen to do it.
I don't believe that the U.S. FDA is that much superior to those in many of the European nations. An inspection of manufacturing facilities should be something they could agree to do for one another, and they could even use Zoom, or a similar way to show the FDA what they're looking at, and let the FDA question what they're seeing.
Our insistence on doing it ourselves has cost many lives in Covid-19 where we insisted in developing our own tests, and messed it up badly, while tests used in other countries were available. Even today, many of the tests touted by the President are supposed to be very unreliable in both directions, people with the disease are told their negative, and people without it get false positives. We look more like a third world country than the world leader.
Gary
Let me throw another question into the mix, will they pay on diagnosis of pneumonia which is not yet severe enough to require hospitalization, and potentially avoid hospitalization for a fair percentage, or will they wait for the pneumonia to be severe enough to require hospitalization, or even more serious, consideration of requiring a ventilator.
I have no doubt that they'll pay, the question is, when.
Gary
With tomorrow being the last day of the quarter I would think the heat is really on the auditor to not take the report into the third quarter, I think the odds are good it will be issued today or tomorrow. I'm not sure we couldn't see both reports on the same day, I have previously seen that happen in other delinquent companies.
It's certainly my hope that the company doesn't hang us up in this way on results of follow on quarters which are anticipated to be substantially better. I believe the growth of the company is clear, D.E. has testified to all he's observed while visiting there, the podcast messages may be confusing, but clearly the company is on much stronger footing than a year ago. It's time that they get serious about timely financials, without them they're cheating themselves, as well as all investors, out of higher stock prices. At some point they will no doubt sell shares to support corporate growth, it's foolish not to do it at higher share prices, and that needs current financials to achieve.
Gary
I can accept that, do you believe the price is being held down by other warrant holders converting and cashing in more slowly, but keeping the price down by their actions.
I suppose these people have guaranteed a gain, but to me their being foolish to sell when it's known that a major event is anticipated in perhaps a month or less, and the price should rise dramatically. Of course there are always people selling at the current price, we couldn't purchase at that price if there weren't, but I see warrant holders as major investors in the company who should know what's happening.
People certainly need money at times, and regardless of the potential in an investment, they'll sell. I suppose with Covid-19 more people are becoming desperate if they're out of work investors. Next month the bonus money the Govt. was putting into unemployment is out unless new congressional action is taken, I believe it will be, but not necessarily to bolster unemployment. I don't believe that many of the unemployed are major stock investors, but even people with small accounts sell when they have to if no other options exist. Covid-19 is clearly getting worse, and I don't know how long it will be before it gets better.
Here in California, they're closing bars in much of the State, hopefully that will make a difference. I believe we've handled it well, nowhere near to taxing the capacity of our hospitals, but the numbers infected and hospitalized appear to be rising slowly, that's bad news. National leadership is clearly needed, but it hasn't happened from the start, and the messages are mixed with all the experts advising one thing, and the President doing the other.
Gary
That's not true, in addition to what they are manufacturing for U.S. consumption, the reminder should be going to fill the U.K. need.
I believe that by the end of the year they will be delivering well over 25 units a month to the U.K. as well as installing in a growing number of hospitals here as well each month.
Gary
I actually put in an order yesterday above $.36, but it did gap down in spite of my order, and I purchased at the $.36 figure. It seems to me the MM's are playing games when higher priced orders are in place, yet they bring it down. I don't mind the savings, but don't like the games.
When I placed the order I looked at the bid and ask that was showing, I placed my price just slightly above the listed bid. I didn't get up until well after the open, when I saw the price I knew I'd bought the additional shares, but when I checked Fidelity, I learned that I bought them substantially below my price.
This gap down will certainly fill, I never mind buying at below the price I offer, I just question how the MM's work in the way they do.
Gary
We certainly agree for the most part. I'm not big on taking my money out of a stock just to do so. I grant you, it's like having the shares for free, but if I still believe the stock is a great investment, why should I reduce the number of my shares, especially when it's a short term gain and I'll have to pay the taxes. If I really think it's a great investment, I'm more inclined to buy more.
I'm fortunate, unless I want something really substantial, like a car, I rarely tap stocks for it. I'd be thrilled to buy say a Tesla from less than a thousand dollar investment, if I hit it big, but I'd think twice before selling more than half my shares to make such an acquisition. Now if we hit $1 this year I would be positioned to do just that, but I'd probably put off getting that Tesla till I could do it with 1/4 of my shares and frankly don't know if I'd do it then. Perhaps I'll do it when I can sell 10% of those shares, then again, by then it may be marginable and give me so much buy power that I could just borrow the $100K or so, and deduct the interest, rather than selling at all. Yes, that's dream mode, but dreams can come true.
Gary
While I don't believe this is true, what if it were. How many investors would really be unhappy with a stock that doubled on the year. Even if you purchased when it was $.09, if it were $.10 you have better than a 10% gain, it's probably better than the average in the market for the year.
I've previously mentioned getting into the stock on 12/31/19 for just under $.007, so if on 12/31/20 it were a dime my gain on the year would be just over 14 times my initial investment, how many people are making 1400% on the year. No complaint from her, but I am one who believes that $1 is far from being out of the question. I should add that I did purchase additional shares, so my average is much higher than $.007, but below the current price.
Whether it's a dime, a dollar, or anywhere in between, or beyond, PCTL investors will not have had a bad year. Sure it's better if it's a dollar or more, but a dime or more has all that have invested in 2020 ahead, some very well ahead.
Gary
Happy Librarian,
As a biotech investor for many years I've seen a lot of things done to support the completion of a trial, I don't think anything that L.P. has done has exceeded what I've seen elsewhere. Certainly we have a lot of shares outstanding, but she's done something that many others haven't, taken the trial to it's conclusion without taking on a partner who in many cases acquires the drug, leaving the company with milestones and royalty income, and a fair amount of money up front. As I see it, with 5all the masaginations LP has taken the company through, we still own 100% of the drug, and while I believe we may take in a partner after TLD, I doubt if that partner will get over 30% of the company, and I believe we'll see a share price of $5 or more in doing that.
Those who know me know I've been involved with IMGN essentially from the time it went public. I still believe in it's potential, but I've hated the fact that it has time after time monetized drugs and greatly limited the profit potential on their approval. They haven't diluted that much over the years. SGEN, who's technology is probably no better has a much bigger market cap, but they diluted for funds, but didn't totally monetize products with potential. I would much prefer having the position we have here than the position IMGN has taken in most of its drugs. IMGN does have a couple drugs that are still wholly owned, but they've openly said they'd like a ROW partnership, keeping the U.S. for themselves, I can live with that, but prefer if they were where NWBO is. I do believe that a BP partner will assure we're well represented for distribution and sales around the world, and will supplement our manufacturing capability if necessary.
In short, LP has gotten the job done. Others might have done it differently, some perhaps better, some worse, many may have partnered, or sold years ago. She's not perfect, but she has taken us to the verge of tremendous success, and we have sufficient funds or the ability to raise them, to go all the way. I admittedly have only been involved for the last couple years of this ride, I can see the frustration of many who've been here much longer, but I like where you are more than where long term investors in IMGN are, here you own a blockbuster product about to reveal blockbuster results.
Gary
D.E.
I think your estimates are great, but you've pointed out the Joker in the deck with no estimate of what it's worth, that's the deliverables on the U.K. agreement, and how much we'll be paid for them.
I cannot say what it will be, but I did previously post that if we're doing 2 to 3 hospitals in the U.S., if we allowed for 10 units a month, we know that Gary said they were building 25 units in July and intended to grow more each month, if we put the growth at 5 more each month we'd be delivering 15 units in July, 20 in August, 25 in September, 30 in October, 35 in November, and 40 in December. That would add up to 165 unit my numbers are well short of that, but if the company didn't exceed my numbers, I still think the revenue would be in millions.
I believe that you and many others here, including Gary Grieco agree we should end the year at a share price of $1 or more. If we take your estimate at say $7 million and said the U.K. added $3 million, we'd be positioned where at a high P/E we could see $1 or more. That high P/E would be 50 or more, but this is a very fast growing company, so that could be justified.
Gary
In reading the paper on the management of GBM it's clear that no matter of your race, color, etc the average survival at 5 years is mid single digits.
Now let's look at what I believe most would agree to in our trial. Currently at least 60 still alive, and almost all of them beyond 60 months. If it's just 60 who've taken the vaccine, either up front or crossing over, that's 20%, but they're alive today. How many of the 300 who received the vaccine initially, or on crossing over lived for over 60 months prior to passing.
It's been quite awhile since the last time we had a firm number of how many were alive, I believe it was in the 80's about 2 years ago, and Dr. Liau gave us a median of almost 60 months for the Top 100, but that was before most of the last 100 to be added to the trial had reached 60 months, so many of them could push past it.
I certainly can't say what our percentage reaching 5 years will be, but we know it's got to be over 20% if 60 are still alive, if over 80 are still alive, just the living would constitute 27%, but once again, that's not counting all who lived over 5 years before passing on. I don't believe that 30% or more living 5 years or more is very possible.
The trial may not have been initiated based on overall survival, but no one will be able to deny the OS basis for approval. Even at 20% at 5 years it's undeniable, but we may have done far better than that.
Some may say my numbers are imprecise, they're right, they represent ballpark approximations of what's happened, but they should be easily understood, and they'll either be backed up by the facts when TLD is issued, or most everyone who believes that 60 or more are still alive today are wrong.
Gary
I've never thought of a 50/50 partnership, I believe a BP coming in with a 20 to 30% position in the company would bring in a lot of money, and would have a degree of control. I'd like to see it structured where half the share were newly issued by the company, and half were tindered by shareholders, hopefully at about $5 a share or more. That would give the company about a $5 billion market cap and position it to rise to a market cap of over $10 billion. Once there a buyout at $20 billion or more is possible, something I've heard is something LP would consider. Frankly before any buyout I'd like to see more data on DCVax-Direct, if it's as good as it may be, a substantially higher price is possible.
Gary
I'll agree with you, with one possible consideration that could quicken it a bit, namely a BP partner that wants to push it. Even then, I would suspect the very best they could do would be 4 months, and it's unlikely. It's also very possible to take 9 months or more doing it, especially if they go it alone.
I believe a partnership will be the next major event after TLD is released, though the complete data might be presented at a technical conference first, which would also be important.
I believe that some people indicated that one, or more of the regulators might evaluate the trial on their own, suggesting that some sort of approval in some country might occur prior to BLA submission. I don't know if this is purely wishful thinking, or a real possibility. I do know that good drugs are often available elsewhere before they're available in the U.S. so I believe that anything is possible.
With what's happening with Covid-19, I believe it's clear that regulators may act without all the normal filings being made, in fact they can look at less than complete trial data and determine a drug can be used. I don't know that our vaccine can get that sort of priority anywhere, but anything is possible.
After results are released it may be possible the company could make it available under compassionate use, or right to try provisions, while awaiting approval. As I gather it, what they can be paid under such terms vary by country, and most companies are unwilling to do it in the U.S. as they won't give the Govt. all it wants before charging anything for the drug.
I believe in the idea of right to try, but don't believe it will be used as intended until a pricing formula is arrived at, not the company revealing information on production costs they're simply unwilling to supply. In general it takes well over a year after TLD is seen to gain drug approval when you allow 6 months or more for a BLA, then that much time or more for a decision by the regulators. Drugs that clearly are worthy of a BLS or NDA submission should be available at some reasonable price during this period.
Gary
Longfellow, while I agree largely with what you're saying, I believe that I expect the company will declare the intent to file BLA's, or whatever the appropriate document is, with all of the regulators.
I've seen many TLD statements that tried to put the best picture possible on results, but admitted that either they'd discuss how to proceed with the regulators, or admitted further trials would need to be done, rather than a firm statement that they planned to submit for approval.
There is no doubt in my mind that if they had it to do over again, with all the know today, a far different trial would emerge, all goals would be met, and it would be done in less than half the time this trial took, and considerably lower costs. That's not saying the trial was a failure, it's saying that much was learned during the course of the trial, and a new trial would be based on what they learned.
Gary
In writing this, I believe I failed to indicate why Gary's revenue projection may have been much lower than actually occurs. That reason might be not assuming growth in sales on the part of distributors, or in assuming an increase in the number of distributors.
Starting out as a new distributor, like D.E., you must assume no immediate sales, unless you already have customers waiting. You need to assume the business will be slow in building, so likewise, the company cannot assume major income coming in from new distributors.
If you allow for such assumptions, Gary's $4 million may be based on zero growth coming from distributors, a very conservative, but also very safe assumption. As more distributors are added, and as sales increase, the number could move up substantially. If this is how Gary made the estimate, the only fault I'd suggest is not stating the bases of the assumption.
It's impossible to justify a suggestion that the year end share price should be $1 or more with earnings as low as Gary stated and no reverse split planned. Clearly to achieve $1 or more the earnings must go up. If we go well above the P/E of 30, let's say we figure the O/S increases to 550,000,000 at a P/E of 50 we'd need to earn $11 million. At a P/E of 30 it would be $18.33 million. Neither of these numbers is impossible to reach, and who knows, perhaps a P/E of 100 could be justified for such a fast growing industry, but as growth stabilizes, I believe a P/E of 30 is about is big as is normal over a substantial period of time.
Gary
D.E. has given us a very good description of how the fluid generation process operates, and he confirmed in my mind how they operate. To begin with, he indicated the process is largely automatic, and the fluid flows into a tank. From the tank it can then be used to fill anything from small bottles, perhaps a gallon, or even less for specialty products, to filling tanker trucks, if that's how it's being delivered to a distributor, or major user.
The question may be, just how big is the tank the generator is filling. I would hope that it's over 10,000 gallons, perhaps even 100,000 wouldn't be too much. Why? Several reasons.
For one, it would allow all production to continue, even if the processor had to be taken down for major maintenance for awhile, as the tank could be filled before shutting down for such planned maintenance. Secondly, if tankers were lined up to take delivery, if fed from a substantial sized tank, several tanker trucks could be filled quickly.
Wikipedia indicates that tanker trucks range from over 5000 gallons to over 11,000. In some cases, double tankers may be used. By having a capacity approaching 100,000 gallons several tankers could easily be handled in a day.
I'm not suggesting that every distributor have such capacity, only those intending to sell in such bulk where they're loading up tanker truck, or loading large bulk tanks into freight haulers, where orders they're dealing with are in the thousands of gallons each. If they're intending to deliver primarily to consumer in gallon and smaller bottles, then a smaller tank may be all that's necessary.
I believe it should be clear that the smaller the size of the container, the higher the sales price on a per gallon basis. I don't know, but would suspect that a tanker truck might bring in under $10 a gallon, whereas we know that one gallon bottles are selling for over $40 in the retail marketplace, perhaps $20 to the distributor.
I don't know, but would suspect that PCTL's distributors pay the company a fixed price for each gallon they produce, and I'd guess it to be a few dollars. For talking purposes, let's say it's just $2 a gallon, if a distributor is averaging 5000 gallons a day in production, that's $10,000 a day going to the company. If that same distributor is averaging sales at $12 a gallon, his net is $50,000 for the day.
If anyone thinks my numbers are wrong, please contribute what they should be. I'm not suggesting that from day one a distributor can sell that much a day, but in time I believe they'll sell more than that. I believe the bulk production units are capable of 10,000 gallons a day, but that may be operating 24 hours a day. It's very possible that a new distributor who has say a 20,000 gallon tank may operate until the tank is full, then not restart production until the tank is down to what they're typically delivering daily. Ideally, demand will build till demand equals what the sell during open hours, and finally demand builds to the point that the processor is used many hours that they're not open for customers.
My point is this can be both lucrative to both the distributor, and to PCTL who's being paid for every gallon produced, as well as for all the equipment that they make that's either sold, or leased by their distributors. I believe the equipment being sold or leased would have more like a 50/50 split.
There are probably a few other considerations, one is if PCTL actually gets the order for say 10,000 gallon and requests a distributor to produce and deliver it, PCTL should receive more than if the distributor got the business themselves. Another would be if the distributor get the order, and wants PCTL to fill it. I would think all this is laid out in the agreements the company makes with its distributors.
The key is, it's win-win, the more successful the distributor is, the more successful PCTL is.
Gary
Thanks for the support Evaluate,
I've known Druggie for decades, he knows that I only have a layman's understanding of what's happening, but I believe that's a view that should be seen, and I don't cave in to his opinions.
I don't try to say something will happen, just that it could be a possibility, and in some cases I indicate a belief in such possibilities. I believe at the time soft lock was first mentioned the company was resigned to do it if a hard lock couldn't be called in a manner of a couple days. It's now been weeks since it was first mentioned, I believe it's been going on for most of that time.
Certainly I could be wrong, if hard lock is called tomorrow, and we don't see TLD for another month, I was no doubt wrong, but if we see TLD in mid July, I think it would indicate that I was right.
What's important is that hard lock will happen soon, I can't say if it will be before, or after the 4th of July holiday, though it would be nice if it's before. I respect Druggie's technical knowledge, I know he doesn't respect my laymen's views, I can live with that.
Gary