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What separates AVXL from worthless penny stocks? Most penny stocks get promoted to heights solely on promotion, not earnings or real prospects, so they eventually crash hard. Was AVXL's rise last summer and fall due to promotion or was it legitimate and warranted? Granted AVXL has no earnings yet but I hope it has real prospects. I am still a little concerned I was victim of a promoted pump and dump. I don't think so b/c AVXL is now on the nasdaq, trades for dollars, not cents, has bottomed out, has good science, good trial results, and good backing of top, legit Drs in the field, not AF's "Dr" Kline, insiders I don't think have sold, Missling is PhD MBA not a hedge fund crookster like Shkreli or maybe the Axovant CEO. Do you think AVXL is different than the penny stocks even tho it a microcap? Do you think it has untapped value and earnings potential?
Do you know which muscarinic receptors 2-73 is an agonist of and which it is an atagonist of?
You only value AVXL's price at $20 IF it is proven effective for Alzheimer's? Seems like a low ball figure. How'd you calculate that?
Anavex is professional. I don't think they'd be so sloppy or try to bend the rules. They're not gonna risk not getting invited back to AAIC just to try and slide by touting their old news
Wait, how do you know the 50mg patients faired better than the 30mg patients? Are you just assuming bigger is better? When it comes to receptor chemistry, a higher dose can be more efficacious or less.
I didn't say that. Yeah, Anavex has the data. They said they're gonna present it at a scientific conference. No doubt they want to present it at AAIC b/c it is the premiere Alzheimers conference of the year. AAIC demands no release of new data before the conference.
"Anavex had stated before that when it receives the final analysis of the data, it will release it all"
You forgot to add on at the end, "at a scientific conference"
TY. Ipulator gave some good info on TauRX several days ago you might want to ref. If you have anything to add on that company, or any other potential rivals of AVXL, I'd appreciate it. TauRX and Heptares are actually private companies so unfortunately I can't invest in either, though for now, i prefer AVXL. I see AVXL as having the potentially best neuro pipeline and platform in the entire sector, but I'm on the lookout for rivals that could come out of nowhere to supplant AVXL as the leader of the pack.
The company Heptares, recently bought out, has a drug in trial that is another competitor to Anavex 2-73> Have you had a chance to research their's and judge its merits?
I didn't see a piano player in that video.
Fidelity's trading platform doesn't offer FTR. Is that b/c it is basically the same as RSI?
Do you see TauRX as stiff competition for AVXL?
But how can that be? Doesn't AAIC require new, never before PR'ed data to be presented? Anavex has a;ready PR'ed PK/PD results for the 5 week trial back in January. If Anavex indicated to AAIC they are intending on presenting that old, public info, wouldn't AAIC have refused Anavex's registration?
Sorry, I @#$%ed up. So confusing the friggin terminology. Yes, the poster refers to Ph 2a, Part a results. However, at the actual presentation I guarantee Ph 2a, Part b results will also be presented.
"The 12-wk PK/PD analysis will assess dose dependency"
Oh really? And what different doses will be compared? There are only 2 different arms for Ph 2, 30mg and 50mg. Do you know something I do not know? The title of the poster refers to the Ph 2a trial. It is merely a placeholder.
Dose dependent response would refer to the old Phase 2a data b/c Phase 2b isn't looking at dose response as much b/c only 2 different doses are being used (30 and 50mg). When they submitted their application, prolly didn't have new Phase 2b results in yet. So the title refers to old data, though I expect they'll be reporting new data too
I remember you were kinda skeptical/down on 2-73 post CTAD, but now you're looking at it more favorably. What aspect of it sets it apart from other drugs, especially the drugs in its class (sigma 1 drugs, like donoepezil, DM, prozac, etc)? That it is a unique sigma 1 compound unlike the others and exerts a different or more powerful effect at a small enough dosage to not elicit intolerable side effects? Or, that 2-73 also agonizes M1 and M4 simultaneously? Anavex claims the interplay between activating S1 and M1/M4 simultaneously has its own beneficial synergistic or additive effect.
Did donepezil show better preclinical results than 2-73? Was it touted as a potential blockbuster buster after preclinicals showing curative, disease modifying effect in mice? Could you provide link of its outstanding preclinical results? There have been many human trials of donepezil, if only one mouse trial showed stellar results in mice that is probably outliar. I really wanna see that study
What happens when we get close to news time? They hold? No, to my knowledge, they do like last Nov, let it run up, then sell for profits and short before the release to date. Ya know, buy the rumor (news on the way), sell the news.
I'm new to trading/investing like you. How'd you learn to pick stocks, when to buy in, and at what point to get out? A book or advisor?
Traumatic brain injury, depression, ALS, Huntington's.
What % of preclinical mouse trials have proven predictable of clinical outcomes?
Yep, when IR says "the data is not available", that can mean one of several things. Technically, it isn't available if a NDA or AAIC rules keep it from becoming available to the public at this time. If that's the case, the data has been taken off the table for now and is, hence, unavailable at this time.
I don't think that news will be trial results any time soon. Because if they do release news with a PR then they can't present at AAIC. Since they are relatively close to AAIC and no other scientific conferences between now and then, they'll wait to release at AAIC. They may release news of Rett trial starting or fronto temporal dementia trial or possibly partnership or start date of Ph 3 trial for Alzheimers trial. But no trial result data
If tutes buying shares, why the volume so low and price?
Yeah, esp when you consider 1/2 of people over age 80 or 85 (I forget) have dementia or Alzheimers. So, everyone would want to take it much earlier than that since we know people's brains begin the mechanism causing dementia 10 yrs or more before they show symptoms.
I'd like to see if 2-73 has more improvement in those with milder Alzheimers that is at an earlier stage than those that have more advanced disease.
The 5 week PK/PD data helps makeup for the fact that this is not placebo controlled Ph 2 trial. In a Ph 3 placebo controlled trial, we might see the placebo control group hanging with the 2-73 group improvement wise for the first 12 weeks, but then eventually the 2-73 group will pull ahead. But even at 12 weeks, I'd bet the 2-73 group will see more improvement than the control group.
I really liked the 21st bullet point b/c it pertains to AVXL right now. Here it is:
21. Trial Results Shown At A Conference Presentation – There are a lot of biotech companies that WAIT TO RELEASE POSITIVE RESULTS at certain conferences. This is to help create the positive reinforcement effect that the results of a trial are amazing and worth noting. I would say that a majority of the time a biotechnology company reports at conferences positive results, but there are those select few shall we say CEO’s that tend to over promise amazing results at a conference and then under deliver. Typically though even though the results aren’t that stellar by some of these CEO’s that report mediocre results at least it is just that mediocre results. We are inclined to state that it is highly unlikely for a company to report results at a conference for them to be very bad, just very highly not likely to be the case.
If the above is true, if AVXL's 12 week results were bad, I kinda doubt they'd have signed up to present at the biggest Alzheimers conference of the year which will take place this July. They want to present good results at this conference to attract the attention of potential partners and investors. If our 12 week results were coming in bad, I'd think Anavex woulda elected to just PR them. I look for the results to be good to potentially great. I expect the ADCS-ADL and ERP tests to be the best of the bunch since Anavex elected to report interim results for those. MMSE and Cog Stat should be improved as well, just not as much. Ideally, one or more of the results will be statistically significant improvement. Anything that is statistically sig would be stellar and unexpected considering the small sample size.
The 22nd item confused me a bit. So, if a biotech is skyrocketing, like AVXL last summer and fall, stay away from it b/c it is just hype based on nothing real? If your DD tells you the sharp rise is warranted and due to legit potential, then get in ASAP or avoid until there is a sharp pull back (assuming the news on the stock is still good)?
If that bears out, I'd think everyone over, say 55, would take it prophylactically to ward off possible dementia and alzheimers, as well as other CNS diseases and possibly other non-CNS diseases
I read 3-71 performs better than other drugs that just act on M1 or just S1 receptors, but not both. Why? As was posted here earlier, Anavex surmises:
It is believed that the effects of ANAVEX 3-71 are mediated by a concomitant activation of the M1 muscarinic receptor (M1R) and the S1R via an induced hypothetical heteromerization between M1R & S1R.
I wonder if other cells outside of the CNS and PNS have sigma 1 and muscarinic 1 receptors? If so, couldn't 2-73 act those receptors too? That would allow 2-73 to exert its anti inflammatory, anti oxidative stress effect systemically. Is its potential limited to just neurodegenerative diseases? Do other diseases in the body suffer from incorrect folding of proteins?
no but i guarantee it will as they did last yr
By results I meant PK/PD, not just the raw data (which Anavex may already be privy to). It takes months to do PK/PD w/the NONMEN software. I"m guessing they got the PK/PD in the last week or so or any day now. Big reveal in late July at the Alzheimers conference in Toronto. It'll be a quiet summer til then.
Too much speculation. They haven't gotten the results back yet from the lab. Takes 2-3 months. Maybe they have them now and they'll release data at next Alz sci conference, which is in July.
How would partnering with BP thwart manipulation of the stock?
is the trial powered to realistically achieve statistical sig for all the som's?
Will the next Part B results be released as a PR as soon as Anavex receives them? Or, will Anavex wait all the way til end of July before presenting results at the Alzheimer's conference? If the latter is the case, might they dribble out some partial results as a teaser PR before the July conference to appease investors?
Why did Anavex elect not to allow an electronic abstract in advance of the Camerino-Cyprus Symposium?
"...the initial study provides good reasons to develop drugs that can treat both amyloid and tau buildup." Hmm....if only there existed such a drug. Enter 2-73
TY. What frequency do you use (1', 5', 15', etc) and how many days does your chart show (1 day, 2, 5, 10, or more)? And which indicators? I'm just getting into TA. I guess you can use it for any type of investing/trading. I'd use it for swing trading and finding purchase points for stocks I wanna hold longer. Day trading seems too risky.
Is TA more, or less, relevant to small cap stocks that are heavily manipulated? Or does that aspect not matter to TA at all?
But the build up of amyloid first is a precursor to the build up Tau. They have a connected relationship.
A preclinical trial of 2-73 reported reduction of amyloid on mri's.