I really liked the 21st bullet point b/c it pertains to AVXL right now. Here it is:
21. Trial Results Shown At A Conference Presentation – There are a lot of biotech companies that WAIT TO RELEASE POSITIVE RESULTS at certain conferences. This is to help create the positive reinforcement effect that the results of a trial are amazing and worth noting. I would say that a majority of the time a biotechnology company reports at conferences positive results, but there are those select few shall we say CEO’s that tend to over promise amazing results at a conference and then under deliver. Typically though even though the results aren’t that stellar by some of these CEO’s that report mediocre results at least it is just that mediocre results. We are inclined to state that it is highly unlikely for a company to report results at a conference for them to be very bad, just very highly not likely to be the case.
If the above is true, if AVXL's 12 week results were bad, I kinda doubt they'd have signed up to present at the biggest Alzheimers conference of the year which will take place this July. They want to present good results at this conference to attract the attention of potential partners and investors. If our 12 week results were coming in bad, I'd think Anavex woulda elected to just PR them. I look for the results to be good to potentially great. I expect the ADCS-ADL and ERP tests to be the best of the bunch since Anavex elected to report interim results for those. MMSE and Cog Stat should be improved as well, just not as much. Ideally, one or more of the results will be statistically significant improvement. Anything that is statistically sig would be stellar and unexpected considering the small sample size.
The 22nd item confused me a bit. So, if a biotech is skyrocketing, like AVXL last summer and fall, stay away from it b/c it is just hype based on nothing real? If your DD tells you the sharp rise is warranted and due to legit potential, then get in ASAP or avoid until there is a sharp pull back (assuming the news on the stock is still good)?
