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Let's do it; very good idea Biotech junkie.
I have no competence neither Language skills, but I am ready to help.
never heard of a e-petition...but everybody can try to Google for it and find if there's something which just need some adjustments.
BoD and Odidi need to know there is something going on, which is the owners of IPCI (us !!) want, strongly want change...and they are beginning to move.
reading about all the politcs and ancillary activities Odidi is engaged in...I just get sick ! he cannot be a CEO, COO, CSO...it is beyond my reach how he could be so arrogant to think he can do everything good.
let's kick him out !
by the way....I didn't like the sentence that was in the prospectus just filed
"the principal shareholders have the ability to exercise significant influence over all matters submitted to our shareholders for approval whether subject to approval by a majority of holders of our common shares or subject to a class vote or special resolution requiring the approval of 66?% of the votes cast by holders of our common shares, in person or by proxy. "
"only for them to immediately turn around and release the new offering "
2 possible answers ...50% probability each
1) they are a bunch of idiots
2) they put down the price for the offer or something like "@ market price" with a deadline like end of November...and suddenly they got the OK from the buyers
Wimus, I agree, as I wrote in a different message, TIME has value.
one further point I would add to yours: by the looking at the Focalin yearly trends it does seem to emerge a transition from the standard product to the ER/XR version. I think it would be very difficult to model it, but that could be .of help
TRX Count - Seroquel
2017 Total - 10.57Mln
QuetiapineFum 9.56Mln
QuetiapineFum ER 602.9K
Seroquel XR 370.1K
Seroquel 38.6K
2016 Total - 15.42Mln
QuetiapineFum 13.56Mln
QuetiapineFum ER 106.5K
Seroquel XR 1.5Mln
Seroquel 199.6K
2015 Total - 14.82Mln
QuetiapineFum 12.50Mln
QuetiapineFum ER -
Seroquel XR 1.87Mln
Seroquel 454.3K
2014 Total - 13.88Mln
QuetiapineFum 11.47Mln
QuetiapineFum ER -
Seroquel XR 1.98Mln
Seroquel 429.9K
2013 Total - 12.79Mln
QuetiapineFum 10.3Mln
QuetiapineFum ER -
Seroquel XR 2.06Mln
Seroquel 418.9K
2012 Total - 12.04Mln
QuetiapineFum 6.73Mln
QuetiapineFum ER -
Seroquel XR 2.3Mln
Seroquel 3.0Mln
2011 Total - 12.09Mln
QuetiapineFum 11k
QuetiapineFum ER -
Seroquel XR 2.43Mln
Seroquel 9.66Mln
TRX Count - Focalin
2017 - TOT 2.7Mln
Dexmethil.hcl ER 1.33Mln
Focalin XR 647.8K
Dexmethil.hcl 628.9K
Focalin 94.6K
Isoxsusprine hcl 22.0K
2016 - TOT 4.03Mln
Dexmethil.hcl ER 1.79Mln
Focalin XR 1.18Mln
Dexmethil.hcl 902.2K
Focalin 144.8K
2015 - TOT 3.85Mln
Dexmethil.hcl ER 1.28Mln
Focalin XR 1.62Mln
Dexmethil.hcl 790.3K
Focalin 160.3K
2014 - TOT 3.82Mln
Dexmethil.hcl ER 603K
Focalin XR 2.93Mln
Dexmethil.hcl 667.9K
Focalin 156.1K
2013 - TOT 4.05Mln
Dexmethil.hcl ER 24.6K
Focalin XR 3.08Mln
Dexmethil.hcl 847.9K
Focalin 88.6K
2012 - TOT 3.94Mln
Dexmethil.hcl ER -
Focalin XR 3.11Mln
Dexmethil.hcl 743.9K
Focalin 85.3K
Samsa, unbelievable how this can happen using just 50K $...this stock is a puppet
Thanks fred,
you are right; I tried to explore the functions and you can get lost if you don't know exactly how to do it.
I just post the numbers since the last arrived board member asked for them, but I'm not wasting too much time into the complexity of these extrapolations, since I believe generics won't get us much higher (as I wrote aound 2 end of last year).
I'm therefore inclined to have a less stressful approach to IPCI elements except for the NDAs part...that is the core element which will make my ultimate decision wether to stay invested or not.
Samsa,
honestly I just hope to breakeven my investment...which looks like a dream (nightmare) right now.
It is clearer than ever that with Odidi as the driver we will be going down the cliff.
I know the only thing could make me breakeven it is a partnership, a serious one, since I know that the generics could at maximum push us around 2, end of next year.
Management sucks here. So I am feeling rationally without substantiated expections, if not bad ones.
It looks like one of those many stories of very talentuous football players who just don't have the right attitude and temperament to succeed...
"But what about capturing the immediate release market"
that's a very interesting point.
If my memory serves well (not a given due my due little babies having decided that sleeping is an optional for their dad LoL) Angelo pointed to this aspect a while back. Something we can start monitoring.
Anyway I reinforce my idea that if IPCI won't concentrate each and every strategic effort on the 2 NDAs we are going to live the next 12 months in a valley of frustration.
I now have like an obsession in my mind:
2 NDAs = 2 partnership
2 partnership within 6 months is what the have to do. end of story. if they don't get it our destiny won't be bright. the longer it takes the lesser the value of future developments.
TIME has Value !! mr Odidi
Complete Focalin numbers SET (apologies for the format) - Total TRX Dollars (in MLN $)
YEAR 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009
DRUG_NAME
DEXMETHYLPHENIDATE HCL 33.8 48.6 43.6 35.9 46.8 41.0 30.8 20.9 9.2
ISOXSUPRINE HCL 0.004
FOCALIN 4.9 7.6 8.4 8.9 5.5 5.3 6.9 9.7 19.7
FOCALIN XR 269.5 450.3 531.7 673.8 785.9 712.3 605.4 497.4 423.5
DEXMETHYLPHENIDATE HCL ER 344.7 464.7 328.7 142.9 6.2
TOTAL 652.9 971.2 912.5 861.6 844.3 758.6 643.1 528.1 452.4
Just to clarify.
I made no more that just hypothesis that could be legally impossible or wrong.
Simply a settlement could be found instead of having a court final decision. And when you settle means you find an agreement.
Please just consider it for what it is.
wimike,
I'm just throwing something without any legal base...
the outcome could be a settlement where the lead plaintiff asks no money in change of some directors removal.
I also believe that the BoD has some kind of legal responsability towards the shareholders in correcting assolving their duties. Therefore I could see a class action where you go against the BoD to understand if they have personal responsabilities.
But again I have not legal knowledge...but I do see some possibile developments positive for us shareholders
I believe that Samsa proved many times that he is first of all a gentlemen (rare) and then a very prepared and analythical IPCI shareholder, with a very good strategic sense as well.
Then his competence in the legal made a lot of his comments very interesting.
So I am happy to have as the potential driver, since I strongly feel where he would like the bus to arrive. Still fear some possible bad complications for IPCI, but he wasn't the fire starter.
just my thoghts
Good luck Samsa
Seroquel XR Sales will be likely lower in 2017 than the 1.27Bln in 2016.
That's why I put the current mkt share based on weekly data, which is likely to be more volatile but more accurate instead of using the 2016 yearly sales data as a basis for calculation.
Now again,
SEROQUEL XR weekly data TRX Dollars
10/06/2017 09/29/2017 09/22/2017 09/15/2017
6.26Mln 5.88Mln 5.94Mln 5.95Mln
Mallincrodt Quetiapine Fumarate molecule sales TRX Dollars
526K 463.6K 453.5K 400.6K
weekly mkt share evolution
8.4% 7.88% 7.63% 6.7%
Agreed. it's the Tricky. I'm trying now some adjustment ...I get confused myself, but the split by manufacturer name does not show the split amont drug name/type.
Yearly 2016
Quetiapine Fumarate 5.8Bln
Quetiapine Fumarate ER 81.1Mln
Seroquel XR 1.27Bln
Seroquel 119.3Mln
So we should just pick the Seroquel XR (I believe)
YTD
Quetiapine Fumarate 4.87Bln
Quetiapine Fumarate ER 430.9Mln
Seroquel XR 299.8Mln
Seroquel 26.0Mln
Weekly TOTAL Sales of Seroquel XR (week ended 06/10/2017) = 6.26Mln
Mallinckrodt Sales (under the Whole category QUETIAPINE FUMARATE Molecule)(week ended 06/10/2017) = 526K
If we assume Mallinck sales are just Seroquel XR (could be confirmed by the fact that first sales shown are in june17, precisely 2.2K in the first week ended 06/16/17)
then market share based on last weekly data is
526K/6.26Mln = 8.40%
there are a multitude of data, filters, etc
If someone can reed through them under PRICING, by manufacturer, I found this:
Mallinckrodt:
400 MG Sustained Rel Tab Package:60 WAC Unit: 1.15 WAC Pkg:69
200 MG Sustained Rel Tab Package:60 WAC Unit: 0.88 WAC Pkg:53
50 MG Sustained Rel Tab Package:60 WAC Unit: 0.71 WAC Pkg:42.56
150 MG Sustained Rel Tab Package:60 WAC Unit: 0.78 WAC Pkg:47
300 MG Sustained Rel Tab Package:60 WAC Unit: 1.02 WAC Pkg:61
my bad !!! wrong filters, they were prescription counts, in k and not in Mln !! I'm exploring Bloomberg different extrapolation possibilities: it is Tricky. !!!
If you choose BY MANUFACTURER you cannot filter BY DRUG name (it is in the same drop down menu)
TRX Dollars Mallinck
526K vs 463 previous week +13%
TOTAL TRX Dollars
145.19Mln vs previous week +5.02%
Current mkt share: 526K / 145.19Mln 0.36%
BY DRUG name
there are the following categories (whith the following total TRX dollars split (week over week):
Quetiapine Fumarate 125.09Mln previous w 138.25
Quetiapine Fumarate ER 13.07Mln previous w 12.39
Seroquel 6.26Mln previous w 5.88
Seroquel XR 0.76Mln previous w 0.71
in conclusion: what the hell to we have to look at to derive something useful for us ??
Some very interesting stuff on the other ipci msg board; a little difficult for my english, but looks like there is a very very GRAY aerea concerning shares issues-transactions-holders...insider trading ???
I think I will take a pause ...this company is driving me crazy
Seroquel numbers - I am the first to give lower and lower importance to generics, but here we have some numbers.
Mallinckrodt weekly sales up 17% (to 770K from 653K)
Total Seroquel
sales up 3.4% for the week (315Mln vs 304)
Since june, when Mallin. launched the total sales are up 4.3%
Current market share (770K / 315Mln) = 0.25% !!
still a long long way
should Mallin be able to jump above (in increasing sales order)
Sandoz, Dr Reddy's Lab, Truepharma, West-War/Roxane, SunPharma, Apotex ???
Apotex is @ 6.3Mln per week
MacLeods ?? @ 6.6Mln per week
Letter to the BoD
Everyone, this is my idea, very simple and necessarily needed of the correct way of implementation:
A Letter to the Board, content of which is shared and elaborated here or better via emails or any form may be deemed more efficient and/or appropriate.
All the necessary disclaimers we are not a Group, entity or whatever could be consider as a single subject.
name, signature and n of shares held via the xyz broker
Total company shares represented it is the main argument they are going to listen.
We need someone like Samsa (who I believe cannot be involved) to sort this out, my idea may have negative implications since I am not a lawyer.
which way? email, phone ? thanks
Samsa, yes, to me wording is defenitely not standard.
Samsa,
"when it went standard"
Rexista didn't went standard, p3 studies were allowed to be jumped, confirmed by the 25th sept FDA decision. HAP/HAL studies being another story.
The question here (which will remain unresolved) to me is: WHEN (at which stage) Podras was planned to be added to Rexista ? Likely after FDA approval.
But now timeline changed; Rexista is not going to be approved before anytime soon, therefore the point Angelo is making looks interesting to me: chosing to add Podras to an "alternate" oxydone signals the will to advance Podras studies, being the alternative to add-it to a still to approved drug.
Therefore, Always aware that the worst usually happens when Odidi is the decision maker, this time there could be some positive.
JMHO
One other point:
Odidis have 5.78Mln shares
3.63Mln new shares + 1.81Mln warrants = 5.44Mln
were the buyer of the new shares ONLY 1, he could easily become the major shareholder in a matter of weeks (if not 1 single day).
H.C. Wainwright & Co. is acting as exclusive placement agent for the offering.
Last time we had similar numbers: 3.2Mln shares + 1.6Mln warrants...but they were clearly sold to an hedge fund (likely more than one).
Dawson James Securities, Inc. book-running manager for the offering, and Roth Capital Partners, LLC, advisor
Samsa,
what is your take about the phrase " The offering is expected to close on or about October 13, 2017, subject to the satisfaction of customary closing conditions."...what conditions could them be ?
Can I hope it is a change in the CEO/COO ? sorry...too much ! LoL
Regarding what you are not at liberty to talk: I just hope it doesn't end up to be the company coup de grace.
Thank you fred,
I believe the raise will turn out a positive IF it has been made with the right subject.
"So, right now, we have a company which will likely only have sales and hopefully earnings from ANDA's between now and late 2019 when perhaps RExista will finally start generating revenues (Mackie says not until 2020). That is a long time to wait. A Rexista approval and partnership deal with Purdue or someone else would certainly help make the wait seem shorter but there are no guarantees on either front."
they have to move on with PODRAS (and the new oxy) and REGABATIN; can Odidi still think to wait for further ANDAs approvals ? can he really ?
still puzzled why putting out Q3 earnings with all the wording concerning cash needs, Seroquel ramping up or not, etc...and then the morning after PR tha new shares issuance (which was clearly ready to 12 hours before).
There is something ODD here...or just stupid ? not sure
Angelo, that would be a very nice surprise, but here there is something: why would some one like Purdue just subribe a new shares issue ( = financial partnership) without agreeing something more in terms of product developments ?
in this case IPCI should disclose the Agreement (=partnership).
Besides this possibility would make much sense strategically (and going Podras with Oxycontin would be a smart move)...so likely it's not going to happen. LoL
Doog, Nasdaq compliance will likely be the next argument.
Now we have cash but we are < 35mln mkt cap. That is why I was screaming for a better timing or other solutions to raise money.
We only can hope they sold to a serious investor which believes in the company future. The money raised looks like a bridge for something to arrive lateron.
So far we know the constantly took the wrong decision, so it is very difficult to be positive for the future. Ipci is becoming a very good example of an ugly managed company
"Wonder why it wasn't mentioned that ZACKS put out a strong sell on IPCI today eh ? "
And what about an updated speculative buy @ 3.00 by Mackie showed today on Bloomberg?
fred,
please share your thoughts, you have been consistently right in your analysis over the recent months (and about a possible raise as well).
Are you still confident in your LIST of next 12 months IPCI milestones ?
TIA
http://www.hcwainwright.com/transactions
there are some nice companies in the list of transactions, one of which I was invested in (CORIUM).
let's just hope we have like in CORIUM a financial partner...still I am very skeptical about it
wimike, some nightmare here.
you know what scares me the most ? This raise just proves our wonderful CEO is not going to partner soon.
Likely he decided to go alone AGAIN for Rexista or whatever will it be called.
We still have just one tiny tiny hope: the institution which subsribed is not an hedge fund, but I'm sure he will be consistent in disappointing us again.
He just certified he is an incompetent; and likely risk another lawsuit.
or wait a second...maybe Yesterday evening he didn't know what would have happen this morning.
I am starting to feel very very uncomfortable having put my money in odidi's hands.
OK guys, it's done. New shares + warrants. I am an IDIOT ...more than Odidi is.
Disgusted. Strategically demential.
GLTA
My point is the astronomical delay in ANDAs approvals has pushed back the NDAs pipeline and Podras tech development.
It's time for a change, a big one Mr Odidi
IPCI has to move beyond Seroquel and Focalin; brutally speaking who cares about Focalin sales if we get Regabstin partnered Tomorrow with a big pharma? at that point ANDAs will just be the dessert.
ANDAs were initially thought as the roots feeding the NDAs;
they are now failing in that and IPCI needs to find onther way to feed its NDAs and its PODRAs tech.
I think they are not going to raise but just using their ATM;
but running from Q to Q with super tiny cash has to find an END sooner than later...and when I say an END it means a deep pocket partner and Odidi just goes back to the lab and applies Podras to all the drugs they have been siting in their reports. Partner Podras with J&J or PFE and we will have a permanent smile on our face in 3 to 5 years.
let's see what happens today to share price
It is now likely more clear why a couple of weeks back I wrote a message explaining the reasons why I am in IPCI as investor (roughly: it is (?) a biotech, forget about generics)
after all the discussions, hypothesis, elaboration and calculations I believe it is now plain that many of us have been applying to IPCI a method which is more appropriate for PFE or TEVA (sales, production costs, margins...don't get me wrong, everthing correct but usually not the parameters for a 30-60-90mln mkt cap biotech)
- we have been trying to reverse engineering numbers because we have a company which is a complete DISASTER in terms of communication
- generics Worth is close to nothing (merits to Amigo for being the first like 2 yrs ago in stressing this out). I believe Samsa proposed to sell them out entirely (or abandon): Yesterday numbers proves him right: they are good just for frustration (new ANDAs approvals have Always been under the big pharma influence over FDA...not just for IPCI, we all know this)
- IPCI is about Rexista, Prodras and (maybe) Regabatin: their value is now close to zero; something solid on these will move us up big. everything we should pay attention to is linked to these 3, the rest is just residual
- new CFO, old story; no guidance, no conf call, no Keppra/Gluco progress...and no shares issue (so far); we don't have expect a new course, Yesterday I wrote about the limits in the mandate he received by Odidi: he won't have much grip on future changes
- I believe that the most important data yesterday came out are those relative to short interest; a drastic reduction proves that the 25th september CL by the FDA was something the shorters didn't expect (at least in its form/contents). if today we don't go down big, then it becomes more likely the manipulators have decided this time to drive the price higher towards year end. Let's see today if they were expecting a raise or not.
- Odidi HAS to sign a partnership; the bigger and inclusive the better. Will do it ? not sure. he has been sitting for quite a long time on his dream, being proved his project was wrong (use generics to finance NDAs); it was wrong because he forgot to put into the formula the competiton factor, and competition in pharma also means playing hardball. did he get it ?? did he ??
- now we all know that there are mainly 2 factors for this company to succeed: partnership and partnership. within the next 6 months our future will become more clear, being only on generics will just make oure life more miserable
Tek, ipci HAS to find a deal with Purdue. I agree with your win-win analysis. I started to think it that way one year ago.
It all comes down to Odidi's being more open and humble after the fragorous slam at the AdComm.
Hopefully the negotiations are including other possible developments with the tech platform and or pipeline
On the CASH needs
guys, here my conclusive points, which I'm not trying to convince anyone they are absolutely right or better than...I'm not writing anymore on this subject. By exeprience, I know anything thought illogical (to an investor) can Always materialize.
The thesis that the new CFO is more likely to push for a new shares issue it is by itself weak:
1- Odidi deicdes if/when
2- for sure the subject was discussed between the two during the hiring process/within the given mandate; "mr Patient, this is out of your scope, please find other ways or that is the door"
3- in the PR it was deliberately included that he "implemented a low-cost operating model". To me there is a hidden message here, although I wouldn't bet much on that
4- I have the felling that the previous raise was pushed by Della Penna; we all know how badly the stock behaviour was affected since. Now I don't see Odidi being convinced again to do something similar
5- one or maybe the only one positive aspect of having Odidi as the first shareholder is that his interests are or should be aligned with ours (shareholders). There is a multitude of small caps that have an history of recurring new raises: usually their management doesn't even have a single share of the stock. So mr Patient could likely want a big new raise to live his future without stress, but does Odidi ?
6- a new raise now will likely assimilate IPCI to those set of companies which are trying to expand their market cap via shares number increase instead of shares appreciation = investors stay away
(CTIC is a good example, ELTP another one, although very different from each other)
7- as I stated many times: a) Mallinckrodt or Purdue or whoever partners with IPCI, subsribes new 15mln shares and pays for new studies etc...yesss, I would strongly agree = trasnformational change in progress b) IPCI sells new shares to an hedge fund or the like...then even 5 mln shares will mean a new valley of pain begins
if IPCI decides to go for route b) then I believe I will strongly consder to close my Investments here.
Hal/hap studies I read are not that much costly, but yes, even if they are way below a pIII phase cost they still require money.
The suicidal definition is dependent on who would be the eventual new shares buyer, hedge fund or pharma co.?
What I am saying is that they don't need 15mln tomorrow, and if they want they could go several other routes to raise money.
So,it all depends on Odidi's willingness to step down, not only as a CEO.
Finally, they should give out something very good on Q3 to have the shares jump and then raise, otherwise they have to raise below 1.00 which will for sure be very dumb
All jmho
Fred, if they raise big but without selling all the new shares to a pharma partner we all are out the game. 20% discount on current prices plus a big dilution effect and we go to 0.50.
So after an ugly first raise would be dumb and suicidal a new one at this prices.
Further cash will be entering also from other Andas, likely at least one before year end.
And one more thing: we now know that some sort of negotiation is in progress with Purdue; raising before it comes to end would be massively wrong strategically.
Obviously Odidi can decide to sell 15% of ipci to an hedge fund attaching warrants and options...then we will know who is the worst CEO of 2017.
Anything can happen, I just call for a little business brain .
Jmho