It is now likely more clear why a couple of weeks back I wrote a message explaining the reasons why I am in IPCI as investor (roughly: it is (?) a biotech, forget about generics)
after all the discussions, hypothesis, elaboration and calculations I believe it is now plain that many of us have been applying to IPCI a method which is more appropriate for PFE or TEVA (sales, production costs, margins...don't get me wrong, everthing correct but usually not the parameters for a 30-60-90mln mkt cap biotech)
- we have been trying to reverse engineering numbers because we have a company which is a complete DISASTER in terms of communication
- generics Worth is close to nothing (merits to Amigo for being the first like 2 yrs ago in stressing this out). I believe Samsa proposed to sell them out entirely (or abandon): Yesterday numbers proves him right: they are good just for frustration (new ANDAs approvals have Always been under the big pharma influence over FDA...not just for IPCI, we all know this)
- IPCI is about Rexista, Prodras and (maybe) Regabatin: their value is now close to zero; something solid on these will move us up big. everything we should pay attention to is linked to these 3, the rest is just residual
- new CFO, old story; no guidance, no conf call, no Keppra/Gluco progress...and no shares issue (so far); we don't have expect a new course, Yesterday I wrote about the limits in the mandate he received by Odidi: he won't have much grip on future changes
- I believe that the most important data yesterday came out are those relative to short interest; a drastic reduction proves that the 25th september CL by the FDA was something the shorters didn't expect (at least in its form/contents). if today we don't go down big, then it becomes more likely the manipulators have decided this time to drive the price higher towards year end. Let's see today if they were expecting a raise or not.
- Odidi HAS to sign a partnership; the bigger and inclusive the better. Will do it ? not sure. he has been sitting for quite a long time on his dream, being proved his project was wrong (use generics to finance NDAs); it was wrong because he forgot to put into the formula the competiton factor, and competition in pharma also means playing hardball. did he get it ?? did he ??
- now we all know that there are mainly 2 factors for this company to succeed: partnership and partnership. within the next 6 months our future will become more clear, being only on generics will just make oure life more miserable
