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Alan,
One difference in belief that I have with your post, is about the failure of the offering if no contract coincides.
The reason for the difference is because the offering only will go live on the NASDAQ; a whole different kind of investment base.
When you inspect the structure and operations of the AM group stocks traded on the big boards, they clearly show early phase company characteristics of no profits, growing capital expenditure, and large multiples. All of them, without exception, show this. Yet the shares are generously priced. That is because the more sophisticated investors in the stocks are just that- investors. They have bought and held for the potential and expectation of growth.
I expect that the same will be the case for SGLB on the NASDAQ. So I personally feel that the coincidental contract is not necessary, but it sure would be sweet. And I do feel that if one is not coincidental, one does need to occur within the next three or four quarters.
All the best,
Silversmith
Well said Alan. Flip your coin, dude.
And in case the many here haven't made the connection yet, if you are of the belief that SGLB is off to the races, the more you own now, the less the number of shares to sell as units; assuming that all your new purchases will indeed raise the share price. Put the profit in your own pocket, or share it with new investors. Your call.
All the best,
Silversmith
TedJ,
I was pounding those numbers last night when I should have been sleeping. If you take it as an average revenue per single software package, and consider the speculation for the number of printers we see talked about already installed, it is easy to see that potential sales of $50 million are just sitting there. And then tack on the proposed 22% ongoing maintenance fees. That is for only what is in place right now at the relations we currently have.
I would venture that the SGLB team's eyes are bugging out of their head at the potential, not to mention the work load that would come from it.
All the best,
Silversmith
25,110 shares traded today. 13.0% of that was me alone. Pretty tame day considering what we know.
All the best,
Silversmith
Sol,
SGLB will declare a share price and the resulting warrant price for the 'units' offered on the day that they activate the S1 offering. A that point the unit will trade freely on the NASDAQ. If the market believes that SGLB will see growth, and/or is at that time undervalued, then it would follow that the warrant portion of the unit is 'in the money' and has embedded profit. At that point the units should trade a premium to the common shares, thereby having a higher price than the common.
All the best,
Silversmith
I hesitate to say it, but now that we are seeing the fearful thoughts coming out again, I want to caution people that this is a different kind of dilution event. It is contained, and may not be much at all; unless the OTC slop drives the price down in abject irrational fear. I suspect that most have forgotten the feelings that were expressed three and a half years ago when 100 million shares were privately placed. There was great anger that shareholders were not allowed to participate in the placement for cash raise. I suspect that SGLB remembers that and has given the common investor an opportunity.
Now we have a completely telegraphed offering coming, you all can take part if you choose, as loyal shareholders (wink,wink) you are being given the chance to be in a position, prior to the uplist share price pop, which history shows nearly always happens with uplisting, yet you do not see it that way. Oh, right, there has been no crystal clear, single page, gently worded PR stating that that is the case.
All the best,
Silversmith
Of course it would Alan. That's why I said the units may trade at a premium.
All the best,
Silversmith
Alan,
The only reason why the straight-up common should trade different from the units is if the share prices have the warrant in the money already. The warrants don't come with a free share of SGLB. You have to actually pay for the share at a premium from issue price. So the common won't be discounted, but the units may have a premium. They will definitely have different tickers.
All the best,
Silversmith
Driftin,
You are right about the units not trading until they are available on NASDAQ. I agree with absolutely everything you said. I am taking the same course, beginning tomorrow. The only rational reason for waiting to get some of the units is if you are fairly certain that the 120% priced warrants will rapidly be in the money. I suspect that they will. I suspect that we are going to see a sizable pop in the share price over the next couple of weeks.
All the best,
Silversmith
Driftin,
I was just crunching some numbers for a couple of scenarios. At the current approximately $3.00 per share, assuming no price appreciation in the coming days(which I really don't think will be the case. I think we will see price appreciation beginning tomorrow), at a $10 million cap proceeds, 3.3 million shares will have been sold. That puts the outstanding at 9.7 million. I have always, and certainly still do, felt that the proper price for SGLB right now, based on probable potential, is north of $100 million. At $100 million, an outstanding of 9.7 million puts us at $10.41 per share.
Even if every single warrant is also excersised within the six month time limit, we are still only talking about an outstanding of 13 million. But as far as I can imagine, for the entire proceeds cap and warrant exercise to occur, there would have to be large pent up demand from investors not of the OTC group, and therefore the price will never be $3.00 per share for the offering. It will be higher. And therefore the shares coming into the outstanding will be less. Either way, it is very doable and not particularly painful. This company is worth a lot more than what the OTC investors have established.
I am pretty sure that the original shelf filing will be defunct at the moment of uplist. I am pretty sure that this new filing supersedes the original S1, but I am not certain of that.
I now have to figure out if I want more now, or take some of the warrants too when the offering is live. What do you think?
All the best,
Silversmith
You bet typhoid. Someone has been working their ass off to put this together.
All the best,
Silversmith
If that were the case Alan, you would exceed the 17 million authorized by an enormous amount. You are incorrect about it. It is not a share amount they are talking about. It is a dollar amount maximum that they may raise with the shares. You can't offer 10 million shares, plus 10 million more under the warrants, plus the 6.23 million already outstanding, if your authorized is 17 million.
All the best,
Silversmith
What a fabulous, truly fabulous document that is.
Congratulations SGLB longs. We are going to go play with the big boys of the NASDAQ.
MIT and Harvard educated new board members to boot. This is fabulous, hard core, business maneuvering in the real world of finance and governance. This is the document that is essentially the dog and pony show for real world investors. We will see a great deal more money flowing around the stock. We are going to be done with the slop of the OTC, the incessant fear of its investors, and the complete lack of insight into the meaning of SGLB's efforts and potential.
I applaud you, SGLB team. Make it go.
All the best,
Silversmith
The tale of the tail wagging the dog.
Oh the joys of waiting long in a thinly traded stock.
Today a whopping $12,020 dollars, a mere .0656 percent of the market cap, and a smidge more than .11 percent of the entire float, brought us to $2.52 a share.
Good thing I had bids in. I had partial fills all over the place below three bucks a share. They finished filling today and yesterday.
Still buying.
All the best,
Silversmith
Thanks TedJ. What you said makes sense.
What do you have to say about what your crystal ball is showing for SGLB?
All the best,
Silversmith
Jeffxtrade,
I have come across the power of attorney wording more and more. My take on it is that it is being used in documents to fully place ultimate responsibility on the CEO of a company.
All the best,
Silversmith
In the March 2016 proxy statement concerning the items before the shareholders for vote, one of the items voted on was the alteration of the incentive plan structure.
At the time of the vote it states that the registered and committed shares in the plan equaled 18,853,774 shares, and the unregistered/uncommitted share count remaining yet in the plan equaled 11,146,226 shares.
All of those numbers are divided by 100 post split.
The measure we voted to approve was to increase the plan's share total count available, and yet to be committed, to a maximum of 75,000,000 by increasing the number of shares allotted to the plan by 63,853,774 shares (11,146,226 + 63,853,774 = 75,000,000).
After the adjustment for the 100 for 1 split, the plan's available to be issued share count is 750,000 shares.
Today's filing is saying that they are registering 450,000 of those 750,000 shares to have them ready for incentive use.
All the best,
Silversmith
It all depends on the wording of covenants and restrictions truthandlove. But realistically, in our case, with the company potential for some serious growth, even without restrictions those receiving shares in the incentive program, or getting them in exchange for a cash investment placement, will be looking to realize large equity gains. Penny stock or not, this is not some kind of shenanigan death-spiral financing. Up-listing is coming.
It is likely the dual case that we have now obtained the services of a hired CFO gun, and the max costs for that skill/ability are controlled by SGLB management. Our CFO has likely been tasked with an immediate specific job to do.
The next six months are going to be fun to watch.
All the best,
Silversmith
Thanks for that Alan.
Mark is still closely managing overhead costs for the company. Good for all involved. I like it.
All the best,
Silversmith
That is fabulous news, in many ways.
A powerful, highly competent, and well connected CFO is capable of bringing so much to the table that it is a game changer. With the up-listing that is clearly in the works, getting us off of the OTC exchange will change this stock's nature immediately. Real trading will be able to occur in the stock. And the anticipated future revenue, cash flow, and potential value of the company can begin to get priced into the shares.
Expect a cash investment through preferred shares, up-listing, and order commitments coming yet this year.
And just for you Alan, they did sell something already. I placed an order for parts with the printing division yesterday. Lol.
All the best,
Silversmith
I wish I had a crystal ball for the future, as I am sure we all do. But my gut feelings are that we are going to be seeing several very good announcements roll out this second half of the year.
I am anticipating a large push for awareness of the SGLB story in the tech and investment world by Cola and the gang. I have a feeling we will see many more stories and interviews with SGLB.
I believe that we will see institutional and/or corporation investment into SGLB.
That will enable up-listing to at least the NYSE-MKT, and the follow on listing and investor awareness/action in the various indexes.
I believe we will see a very impressive announcement of intimate linkage with front-end design and real-time/back-end IPQA/QA software through the joint partnership of 3DSIM and SGLB.
I believe that the time is finally come for the start of placing large CapEx orders for PR3D with the AM OEM industry near the end of the year.
I will probably be buying another 15K or so more shares in the near future, but I don't know. I should probably do it now. I don't think we will be seeing these great bargain share prices for very much longer.
All the best,
Silversmith
One thing I noticed from the engineering.com article is that Cola called the closed-loop concept by a different name. He stated it as a closed feedback loop. When DDD and others were playing fast and loose with the term 'closed loop', they knowingly were trying to grab the attention of people. But they didn't have the far more specific 'closed feedback loop'. This nomenclature effectively puts a halt to the shenanigans of closed loop word-playing.
All the best,
Silversmith
Wow stocker.
That is the first time that I've seen the vision and potential for PR3D application to a very much broader venue of manufacturing. Not just AM printing. I certainly hope that this is the beginning of Cola talking up the company to the public. Our story is a good one. A whole new way of real time quality inspection for manufacturing.
All the best,
Silversmith
Something else to think about Driftin-
With the exception of shareholder equity, we are capable of meeting the requirements of moving to the NYSE-MKT exchange. This is the old American Stock Exchange. Under section 101a and 102b, we would only need the $4M share holder equity to come into place. As long as our ragtag shareholders stop seeing nothing but gloom and doom, and let the share price come back up to three bucks, all that has to happen is that Cola either closes a large contract, or sells some preferred shares to a private entity to get the shareholder equity in place.
I suspect that this is being worked on. Or maybe even he has his eye on the NASDAQ outright.
Once on the NYSE-MKT exchange, then it is fairly easy to get listed in the Russell small cap index.
The next several handfuls of months will likely be the difference between those that make a nice and pretty return in SGLB, and those that lost out due to impatience and lack of understanding.
All the best,
Silversmith
To go a step further, it is proper to acknowledge that the IRISS system is a nice accomplishment for Sciaky. It is an attempt to enhance their particular product. But it will never be a universal-machine capable system. It will never gain global use because it is so deeply specific to Sciaky EBAM printers. There is a world of difference between EBAM and laser printing. I don't think that EBAM will ever be used for parts printing that requires fine dimensions and intricate structure. EBAM parts look rough, and are usually more massive than what we see with laser printing.
But IRISS does seem to make an adequate attempt at controlling the weld parameters as far as optical viewing of the pool goes. It is basically a binary switch. Does the pool look like it is supposed to? Yes/No. Then if yes, do nothing. If no, then change either the beam strength, feed the stock faster or slower, or change the relative differential speed between the part and the beam. That is it. It doesn't predict anything. It doesn't give hurdle level failure percentages, it doesn't give material deformation probabilities, it doesn't give anything at all about the part itself.
All the best,
Silversmith
Guy,
The Sciaky system comes up from time to time, and we get the same reaction from SGLB investors here. The IRISS system is only applicable to Sciaky machines. It is not machine agnostic. And it is only for the electron beam machine. It is not universal in any way. When they say scalable and closed loop control, and all that, they are meaning that the IRISS system can be employed on the various EBAM machines in the Sciaky line of products, and that it can interact with the beam control. There is no analytic algorithm, no predictive outcome, and no a-priori model. It doesn't even come close to the power of PR3D.
All the best,
Silversmith
Great read Buckeye.
This is one of the better discourses on the inner workings of PR3D that I have seen. It is clear that SGLB is deeply involved with ICME. Honeywell is playing probably THE leading role in solidifying metal AM for critical applications.
Additionally, now we know a main reason why there has been such delay for mass incorporation of PR3D. The manufacturing and materials engineers simply do not yet know what may still be a good part, or what is clearly a bad part, when small percentage off-nominal layers are noted. That's pretty cool. PR3D sees what is going on for sure. It can determine total perfection, and less than total perfection in the build. The question is one of risk in accepting less than total perfection in a build. Way cool.
All the best,
Silversmith
Nice job people. There were definitely some prearranged buys and sells at $4.65 today. All good signs going on here. Tomorrow will be tougher though, I suspect.
All the best,
Silversmith
My estimation is that they have only burned through about $27K so far. The rest is simply blocking a falling bid, not actually buying. Plus, I would venture to say that most of the fringe, loose, and easily scared past shareholders have been purged in the last five weeks. So unless shorting takes another stab at it and finds some more people who don't understand what's going on, who is going to be selling? This thing is getting tighter and tighter. The reverse split and the fire storm of the after-effects have gone a long way toward tightening this up way more than it ever was. All anyone needs to do to stop any decline is simply not sell.
Up-list is coming.
All the best,
Silversmith
I hope you don't. I'm glad to get the chart back to looking like a real chart. Lol.
All the best,
Silversmith
There were actually only 100 shares on the ask for that price. My buy is unfilled and became the bid. It will be there in the morning. My take is that the trading is being conducted pretty cleanly right now, as the dust is finally settling.
All the best,
Silversmith
No magic about it Z.
That was me. I was just rounding off an account holding so that I can do the math in my head. I can't believe that no one took out the $4.40s for 100 shares. The ask is so stinking thin on this thing that not much money will make big moves.
We definitely have better bid support to keep this from falling back. I suspect that this is part of the buyback effort for uplisting. For the moment, it looks safe to go ahead and take out the asks.
Up-list is coming.
All the best,
Silversmith
If it stays with what I think it is doing, there is more to come dadx4.
And another thing, people need to realize that we are not dealing with a seemingly bottomless supply of shares in a four or five hundred million plus float anymore. We are now dealing with a float of about four million. There will be some explosive moves in SGLB. If you think that you will wait for news and buy in then, then I am here to tell you, you are SOL. This is far from the stock that it was just three weeks ago.
All the best,
Silversmith
Jeez, some of you can't be made to be happy, can you.
Nice three days of up volume and higher share prices, and you don't believe or trust it.
How-bout that Jackle. A little more and it will have come out just like expected. If it follows trend, then we will see the new-normal expectations priced in.
All the best,
Silversmith
I had a most interesting evening tonight. I was at a neighbor's party, and learned that another neighbor works for the GE Aerospace division in the materials procurement department. Naturally I grilled him about 3D printing. It turns out that GE has had speakers and professionals presenting to the division for the last two years about 3D printing and the build-out of the technology. But apparently GE does not play nice with entities outside of GE, and even with competing divisions within GE. There are things to be resolved yet with what the final layout will look like concerning who provides what in the GE AM manufacturing efforts. I did not learn specific investable SGLB information, I simply did not ask. This person has no knowledge of the whispers that GE is having issues with the fuel nozzle AM manufacturing. However, it is clear that GE is of the belief that if one does not develop AM print manufacturing capabilities then the competition will hand you an early demise. They feel that AM will significantly alter the entire landscape of manufacturing, from product function and performance, to cost, to lead times, to revenue flows due to cargo transport. The need to transport cargo over distance will be significantly impacted due to parts production on local soil with AM. That even goes for the production of non metal printing such as is currently being done with Nike printing tennis shoes. Apparently GE sees AM as a very big disruption in the way things have always been done.
All the best,
Silversmith
I believe that SGLB is doing things pretty much okay. I sense that Cola is learning from his past and getting a bit more of an edge on him; a little more savvy. I personally believe that the reverse split and expansion of the authorized is what was needed for two things. One is to enable to company to grow considerably faster. The other is that, provided we up-list before long, the investment market can unlock the potential value of the technology through pricing the common shares on the backdrop of a conventionally structured company. We are getting there yet.
But the pipeline list is impressive. I know that there are a number of us that have had, or are in, careers of technical sales. I would venture to say that not one of us would deny the time and effort it takes to close deals with major OEMs, and not one of us would deny that with a pipeline list like that, there will be some excellent wins coming out of it. In my experience, almost 30 years now, the timing of the NDAs and relationship building, and many, many talks/meetings, and quoting and evaluation efforts looks just about right from a progress perspective. From a timing perspective, contract sales are indeed what is next in this sequence. That is just the way it works out in the world.
In looking at the pipeline list, all the right names are there. I personally wonder who is actually in the pipeline but not on the list due to trade secrecy. Maybe no one, but I wonder about it.
Obviously over three quarters of the list are some serious, very heavy hitters in industry. Again, I am impressed.
It won't take much to reach some large thresholds. The 3D print industry average stock price to sales ratio, over a trailing twelve months period, is a tick less than 4.0. If SGLB sees a ratio of 4.0, and lets say they expand the outstanding share count to 9 million, then $25 million in TTM sales will yield a share price of $11.11.
If the outstanding share count only gets expanded to 7.5 million, the same TTM sales yields a share price of $13.33.
It may not seem like it to many of you, but $25 million TTM sales is going to be pretty easy to do if PR3D is chosen. Just two of those OEMs on the list will exceed $25 million sales once this thing is ramped up. It doesn't seem all that unlikely to me that a more probable TTM sales number will be closer to $100 million in the next three years or so. And it may be sooner.
At a TTM $100 million sales, 4.0 ratio, and expanded outstanding count of 9 million, the share price comes out to $44.44 per share. At an expanded outstanding share count of 7.5 million, the share price comes out to $53.33.
I am far more certain about this than I was earlier in the year. It is still a long way from a certainty, no doubt. But it is a lot closer to reality, than it is to pie-in-the-sky wishful thinking.
All the best,
Silversmith
In my opinion that may be the best post you have ever put up Alan. If Cola is open minded enough to listen to the view points of others more knowledgeable, then all that is needed is the heavy hitter board, and a true business oriented Chief Operating Officer. Cola can then stay as the CEO. He has worked hard enough for it. The people around him can guide him if he isn't too hard headed.
All the best,
Silversmith
Real investors have been buying their butts off for the last three days. Lol.
All the best,
Silversmith
There is likely more to the story yet. If they had no clue that the split and authorized increase would have adversely affected the share price, they also would not have made provisions for $100K of buyback for support. They knew. What they probably weren't anticipating is the degree of the shorting attack that ensued. In any case, I suspect that we will be back up to the $4 level before long.
All the best,
Silversmith
If you ever wondered whether SGLB is considered a 3D print industry company and stock, look no further than today. The answer is no. The entire industry was up fairly big today. SGLB is on no radar, and the story is essentially completely unknown; which baffles the heck out of me. Are the industry followers really looking that shallowly into the industry? Or are they waiting?
If it wasn't for those nearly daily 2K to 3K sells all at once, I would say that all of this selling is still just little investors being angry over the split and attempt to increase the authorized. In which case this thing would turn on a dime once all the anger was out of the stock. But I don't know. Is it one big investor liquidating a multi-million share pre-split holding, or many smaller 250K pre-split holders getting out in anger?
I stopped watching all local and world news about two years ago. It was so scripted for the worst in society that I just stopped watching. I think I will put some buys in the bid column in the event that things go much lower, and just stop watching SGLB for a long while.
All the best,
Silversmith