alive and kicking
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Investing in biotech can be risky so you have to have some diversity, and I do and also advise others who ask me to do the same. I made more than >3x as much on IMGN as I lost on ENTA this morning, RVNC has also been doing well and SGEN is getting bought out at a big premiums, so April and May and 2023 have been very good to me.
Back to ENTA, the fact remains that EDP-235 showed a statistically significant reduction in Covid symptoms in a healthy young population, something Paxlovid failed to do in a trial several fold larger that the SPRINT. This was even though the population in the SPRINT trial ENTA just ran.
One question that was asked in the CC was the market for anti-Covid drugs now that Covid is essentially endemic. The market fro such drugs are ~$10 billion in 2023. PFE estimated $8 billion for 2023 but reported $4 billion for Q1. The market is still quite big and will remain so for quite some time.
There is no hiding that is it painful to see an investment drop as much as ENTA did today. I did buy more ENTA this morning at $24.15. I will probably keep buying over the next few days. In a month or two I will likely sell some as I need a tax loss to reduced my capital gains from the SGEN buyout. Still, my goal is to have more shares of ENTA than I did before the SPRINT trial data was released. I am not telling everyone they should do this. That is my plan and you have to weigh what to do yourself.
Good luck to you and other ENTA investors as we move through this challenging time.
Apparently we have a sensitive little fellow on this board who likes to talk smack but can't handle a little himself.
The after hours trades means lots of pain tomorrow. However, there is also opportunity possible. I have made some nice cash picking up shares after a drop, as long as you think the drop is unwarranted.
I listened to the CC and the key points, at least to me were.
Enough cash to take ENTA into 2026. This doesn’t model ENTA running their own phase 3 and they aren’t looking to do so. The goal is now and has always been to partner. Looking for partnership for phase 3 as their plan has never been to run their own phase 3. Mentioned phase 2 for long Covid but that will likely be self-funded and run but nothing is set right now.
FDA doesn’t approve Covid drugs aren’t based on viral load changes. It is symptom relief, reduction of hospitalizations and deaths.
Why would symptoms improve with EDP-235 but not really viral load? They speculated that EDP-235 has a higher tissue distribution levels (EC50 & EC90) than Paxlovid but measurements only in the nasal cavity. Effect of EDP-235 on different viral compartments, lung, heat etc could explain systemic symptoms improved with EDP-235 without showing better viral clearance in nasal swabs. It would be difficult to assess these other compartments. Also talked about the much more rapid viral clearance in the nasal swabs in placebo. Nasal swabs only measure viral RNA levels, not active virus that can trigger inflammation.
Question about viral rebound. The analyses haven’t been completed.
Question about EDP-514. looking at other data sets, external assets. No mention of another internal drug.
EDP-323 polymerase inhibitor for RSV. Phase I data safety, tolerability and pharmacokinetics due next month. Challenge study would be next assuming positive data.
I don't think is it too late for people to buy into IMGN or to increase their shares, but it comes at a cost as you have to pay for the information gained from MIRASOL. Not only is Elahere in more trials, this time for PSOC (Platinum sensitive Ovarian cancer), they have other ADCs including an updated and improved follow up to Elahere, called IMGN151. The pre-clinical data presented so far sure makes IMGN151 look impressive and better than Elahere, as it shows efficacy against low, medium and high alpha foliate expression and has a longer lasting ADC linker. However, these improvements in IMGN151 could affect toxicity so obviously clinical trial data is the key. The phase I trial of IMGN151 is already in progress and its estimated primary completion date is Sept 30, 2023 so is a ways off.
Here is the IMGN151 pre-clinical data.
https://aacrjournals.org/cancerres/article/80/16_Supplement/2890/642251/Abstract-2890-IMGN151-A-next-generation-folate
Here is the IMGN151 phase I trial.
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT05527184
Wow, I initially guessed the offering would be at $10/share, then after thinking about it more I said that guess might be a bit low. Selling at $12.50 and almost 30 million shares just blows me away. The stock price is going to go up, up and up from here!!
Congratulations to all longs. I guess the uninformed shorts are feeling even more unhappy tonight. Good, it makes me laugh!
Wow, I initially guessed the offering would be at $10/share, then after thinking about it more I said that guess might be a bit low. Selling at $12.50 and almost 30 million shares just blows me away. The stock price is going to go up, up and up from here!!
Congratulations to all longs. I guess the uninformed shorts are feeling even more unhappy tonight. Good, it makes me laugh!
Seems like the shorts are learning a painful lesson, that ignorance can really hurt you, and I am enjoying it. They will continue to lie and distort about the new share offering, either out of ignorance or desperation.
IMGN won't try to rapidly sell the entire batch of new shares to garner $200 million they mentioned. IMGN will almost certainly one end up selling only a tranche of shares and then wait. IMGN has plenty of cash on hand so it isn't like they need an immediate influx of cash to maintain operations. IMGN hasn't even announced the price for the new shares, likely because they are waiting to see when the price stabilizes then they will offer the tranche of news shares for a few dollars below that price. My initial guess was $10/share but that is probably too low given the stock price is now in the mid $13s. Time will tell.
The short who knows NOTHING about either IMGN or ovarian cancer and who only shows up AFTER the price spike of IMGN assures you that he came here out of the goodness of his heart, knows what is best for you and only wants the best for you. Funny how if you see where he posts you can see that he is short who knows nothing about Biotech. It is so pathetic and predictable it is laughable. When I buy or sell I post at the time I make the transaction. My record is good and transparent.
No need to read what the shankman wrote wrote but my comment to him and his ilk is an old adage "The dogs bark, but the caravan moves on". The IMGN rocket ship is just beginning its ride. Enjoy!!
If I didn’t own any IMGN I would buy now. The jump in IMGN stock price raised it to my biggest holding by some 50% so there is no need for me to buy any more. My last buy was at $3.69 at the end of March.
Shorts and short term traders like you always miss the biggest rise. You were here before so we can safely ignore your advice. The rise should continue through the week at least before settling. Of course, that is before the analyst upgrades start rolling in.
We are done here. So long..
Here is the MIRASOL data which shows a 33% survival benefit for the Elahere arm.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/elahere-demonstrates-overall-survival-benefit-103000721.html
The last few days have been a nice move up for ENTA shareholders but it really doesn't matter much. It is finally May and the EDP-235 phase 2 data should be out this month. That will be the real price driver, hopefully it will be what we hope and drive the price much higher that than it has risen the last few days. Fingers crossed.