Biotech Values

[vinmantoo]

Without the benefit of having heard the cc yet or looking back at paxlovid and other protease data in development I would say if I had to pick one - either efficacy hits on VL or symptoms I would pick the latter as that is the approvable endpoint and enta has a chance at a successful phase 3 in lower risk patients now too

PFE ran their trial with ~5x more patients in their trials compared to the SPRINT trial from ENTA. The PFE trials failed to meet the primary goal of reducing symptoms for 4 consecutive days. SPRINT did do that. I think the market will recognize the difference, at least a little.

https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/pfizer-stops-paxlovid-work-less-vulnerable-covid-19-patients-after-no-benefit-symptom-relief

https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/99254

ENTA's slide 22 shows that the placebo arm in the SPRINT trial had more roust and rapid viral load decline by day 5 (1 log to ~1.5 log faster clearance in placebo). That could be related to the general population had more previous Covid exposure and immunity from that or from vaccination that earlier studies. Not saying I am 100% confident about EDP-235 prospects but the symptom relief makes me feel it has a good shot in high risk populations and perhaps in long Covid studies.