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Some likes the April 7.5 calls.
Do you suppose the tutes met with Missling prior to their buys? I believe most did.
What happen at those meetings? Not much could be said, but I'm guessing by the nature of the question and Dr. Missling's body language the tutes all walked away and instructed their team to BUY BUY BUY!!!
They are scrambling to acquire as much as possible under $6. Next week $6 will be considered a great buying opportunity. We won't be under $6 for much longer.
The last 5 minutes of trading today should be an eye opener.
In the last hour we had over 50 small lots (under 100 shares) trades. What gives what that?
Ok, lunch is over. Let's push above $5.95.
I would like to think Missling is working very hard getting the Rhett started before March 29th.
If so, we will definitely be in double digits by then.
Wow. It got there as I was typing. A 15,000+ offer at the ask at 5.95!! Let's see how long it takes for that to go.
...wow it looks like they pulled it. Someone is playing a game or they think they could get a higher price for it.
We should close well above $6 today.
No block trades this morning. Although there were 2 trades at 9:38:35 totaling 12,639 shares.
I do expect to see another one at the close today. We may see a mid-day block trade or two if we get to $5.95 to $6.
It does look like we still weak retail selling here in the 5.75-5.90 range. I do believe we are still under heavy accumulation and they are being patient picking up the small lots. Once that gives (by noon?) we should move up to 5.90's. At that point, we will see how bad they want in. There should be several opportunities for the tutes to pick up big blocks.
My sense of what is going to happen.
It looks like the IBB will break out above its 52 week high and hopefully it drags us with it.
I believe the end of day block trades are the result of an institutional order placed earlier in the day. The market marker buys (and take out stop losses) throughout the day and reports the block trade at the end of day. The increase that proceeds the reporting of the block trade is most likely the market marker making one last push to buy all that is available. This has been the MO the past couple of weeks or more.
Ask your broker, if the above is true.
4 block trades already today. One more at the close?...will we get back to high of day?
man oh man...I go to see John Wick and just before I enter the theater we are sitting in the 9.30's and I come out and we are sitting in the 8.80's.
I guessed I missed John taking down ADXS!!!
Ah, there is always tomorrow. Hopefully Trump is nice to us tonight.
So there is two? Forum and presentation? If so , that is very good!
Is 15 month study going to be updated?
So it appears shorts are starting to cover, tutes are still accumulating and retail is still in the hunt.
All we need now is some catalyst news and we will have the perfect storm taking us to double digits.
I wonder if we will see the drop in the loan rate tomorrow? Usually there is a day lag.
I'm ready for the ride. I got a good seat on Noah's Ark. It was designed for this storm. :)
I noticed the rate didn't change on my other 8k shares. I just thought it was interesting they returned 10k shares. Maybe with today's late move and coupled with tomorrow's move more shares will be returned.
This move up is unlike the past couple moves and is being driven by institutions. I say they are still VERY hungry. I won't be surprise to see a 10m share day and we are up $3 or $4.
We all know we should be at double digits by now. The tutes know that and they will be get us there in a hurry. It will take one more tute to enter the share grab and then BAM!!! Nothing like competition for our shares.
Good luck to all.
I hope to pick up 1,200 add'l shares tomorrow if it drops to 5.80. I had an after hour order at that price but no bites. Maybe I get lucky tomorrow. If not I'm still very fortunate to have what I got now.
This week will be great. Maybe Trump will mention AD in his speech tomorrow.
Cheers!!
Maybe by 2018 you may be attending Biogen's AM
I know I sound like I'm pumping however it is plain as day to me that we will be 8+ by end of week
Over the weekend I called for $7 by end of Tuesday. I still think it could happen.
Institutions are still very active accumulating and sellers are drying up. Shorts are also covering. I believe this to be the case since Fidelity returned over 10k shares to me that were loaned out.
If anyone was looking for a pullback to enter, I doubt we go below 5.80. I think $6.00 will be considered an excellent entry point by end of week or even perhaps by end of day. We will be at double digits very soon. I don't see it any other way. Tutes won't wait. They will enter in force this week. The closing volume shouts. Can't you hear it???
Sorry I was wrong. The block trade (92,530) happen right at close at a price of $6.01. I thought we would have closed higher than 6.01.
Did anybody else see the large block at the bid?
We are still under heavy accumulation.
I doubt tomorrow we go below 5.80.
Will we make the 6's today?
Will we close above 6.01 or 6.13 or 6.21?
Let's see another late day block trade at the high.
Today's announcement just makes the potential bigger deal worth a lot more! How many similar deals are in the works? If any, then it may be a while before we hear of the "big" deal. In the meantime, we continue to move up on share price.
Patience is good.
I also sent her an email. I approached it that she may obtain a better insight to what is available if she researches / reaches out to Anavex's Scientific Advisory Board and while she is at it check into why Dr. Missling is on several of the 21st Century Cures Act panel discussions. I did mention, why are institutions accumulating aggressively during recent months. I wished her luck on her research.
Baspark,
You said: "If there are big-block buyers, then that would suggest there are big-block sellers. Who are they?"
An institution can inform the the MM of a pending order and the MM will start buying what is available (even perhaps take out stop limits) to fill the order. Once the MM reaches the goal, they will report the trade. I suspect many of the block trades right at the close is the result of the MM filling an institutional order received earlier in the day. I also suspect that is why we see a rise in share price in the last few minutes of the day. The MM is driving up price due to their buying to satisfy the block order received form an institution. Also, LPC can be on the selling side of block orders.
Tom123,
I love all your TA!! Thank you for all your hard work and commentary! Much appreciated!
I sense that time is running out (due to pending news) and I believe the "manipulation" won't take it below the 5.30 support. I believe we shoot up to and beyond $7 by end of day Tuesday (without news) and $7 will be the new support that will be tested several times the rest of the week (again, without news).
There is still a lot of pent up demand and the weekend just added to it. The institutions (IMO) will be making a move this week. I am guessing we will see a pickup in block trades starting tomorrow.
When will news be released? I'm not certain. However, I am certain that with each passing day it is getting harder to accumulate a sizeable position without serious price appreciation and at some point that will change. My guess it starts tomorrow.
Exciting days ahead!
McMagyar -
You stated: "What everyone is missing including you is that the Prescription revenue side of Anavex is minuscule compared to its OTC value with continued SAFETY and positive side effect Characterisitcs.
Sleep medication is a greater market..
Depression/ mood is a greater market.
Energy..
Prevention.. "
I understand your point, however, I just don't think the sleep medication / depression mood market will open up before Rhetts or AD.
Android,
I consider confirmatory to be as follows:
1) Positive Rhett results from upcoming trial.
2) Further improvement of current AD trial.
3) Australia granting early approval based on current trial.
4) Biogen enhancing relationship via continued study with their own version of A2-73 plus.
5) Biogen enhancing relationship via partnership.
6) A deal with another BP.
7) 21st Century Cures Act involving AVXL.
I believe any of these situations will move share price up significantly and we can possibly hear something very very soon since several can be in play right now.
Let's hope and pray A2-73 really works.
McMagyar,
You stated: "What part of Blockbuster is everyone not comprehending?"
I think the challenge here for most (new investors), if what you believe is true, than why are we not at a 5B MC today?
I sense that we need another PR confirming what we know to be true today. This way they are hearing it live. Right now most new investors are hearing it as history (news that was already released and the share price did "nothing").
I even think that part of Noble's coverage was due to their knowledge that tutes started accumulating in Q42016.
Last year around this time I stumbled across a paper authored by 7 doctors (4 were from one company and the other 3 were independents). I said to myself if this is true this stock will take off. So I bought 4k shares for about $10. A couple of weeks later the stock dropped from about 2.50 to 1.60 or so. The message boards all talked about pending approval. I read the abstract and decided to add another 3k shares. Lo and behold the company issued a PR (I believe it was Aril) and the stock jumped to $8. I gather most retail sold at that point, while tutes were adding (many small trades and lots of block trades). The stock then shot up to 17 and traded widely. I sold a couple thousand at 8 and a few more at 17. At the end of May the stock shot up to 30+ due to an offer from JAZZ. The stock was CPXX.
My point is that with some stocks it may take a sure thing before the price reacts. AVXL is currently in that boat, however this will change real soon. The next confirmatory PR will send our share proce noticible higher. It can come at any day now, thus my advice to hold and accumulate. The day trades will yield nothing if you are caught mid-stream. Dont get greedy, Just hold and buckle in.
Sine the Rhett Organization is involved I believe they already have the list of potential patients and have had preliminary discussions with the families. Perhaps as the families were doing their DD they became aware of the promise of A2-73 with the AD trials and even perhaps took a small stake in AVXL.
From 9/30 thru 12/31, tutes have added 3M shares yet the share price only gained $0.33 (from $3.63 to $3.96) over the same period. Basically, 1M shares drove a $0.11 increase in share price.
In January, I estimate the tutes have added 1M shares and the share price is up $0.54 during the month. So in January, 1M drove $0.54 increase in share price.
Now to February. I estimate 1.5M shares have been added by the tutes. M-T-D, we are up $1.17 in share price. Therefore, 1M shares drove an increase of $0.78 per share.
See the trend? IMO, this supports the notion that liquidity (available shares) is drying up. I also believe the tutes are not done. I suspect current tutes are adding as well as new ones are joining. I believe it is a matter of days before all hell breaks loose. Coupled this with news and the addition of momentum traders, we will be off to the races.
Discounting the hype, many of us feel we should currently be at a 1B MC. If we know this, then surely the tutes know this. It's just a matter of time (and I say days) before we start the march to 1B. The demand for stock is increasing as available shares are shrinking. It's not going to happen. It is currently happening!! Each day more and more are starting to realize what we already know. As more are watching and any news substantiating what we already know, they will all pile in to get their shares.
My guess at the end of March, tutes will own at least 28% of shares if they continue at the current quarter pace. If any news in March, then the % will most likely be in the mid 30's
We have so much potential it is almost inconceivable. Key word: "Almost".
My advice is to forget the day trade in order to pick up $0.50 - $1.00. They will be a day when the share price jumps double digits because of some event we all know is coming. Is it Rhett news? MJFF? 21st Cure Act? Biogen related? AD related? Something we didn't think about? Or a combination of events?
There are too many "anecdotes" floating around for one not to be real and not to materialize.
Let's see what unfolds.
Seventhwave - Informative piece on Knoll Capital
I wonder if Dr. M is using LPC to assist a partner in taking a stake.
I can't help but feel we are on a verge of something earth-shattering. The accumulation is almost stealth-like. I find it interesting how many of the block trades of the past week or two have been right at the open or right at the close or both.
It is a matter of days (maybe a week or two) before our share price explodes upward. If LPC is supplying the current market liquidity it should be drying up soon.
I realize I sound like I'm pumping here. Maybe. Perhaps. Most pumping comes from the brain. What I'm feeling is coming from the soul.
Looking forward to the "Yabba Dabba Doo" moment. :)
I wonder if we are languishing because they won't be any news soon. I'm starting to think that is the case. Why? If there was something else in the hopper after the Amgen deal, I would think Dan would have waited to do the dilution until the release of the additional news. Since he decided to do the dilution on the heels of the Amgen deal, I am wondering if the Amgen news is the best we get for a while. I hope not, but common sense tells me that may be the case.
Great! Thank you Xena!
A rough count of those with trades with at least 10k shares is appx. 2.5M.
I bet the tutes have added 2M (5% of float). It will be interesting to see the updates next quarter.
Yep. Like clockwork.They are patient.
Will we have yet another block trade at the ask and at the close today?
It would be interesting to see the number and shares of block trades since 12/31. This may give a clue of how much the tutes have been adding. Since the borrow rate has remained fairly constant, i would think about 75% of the block trades are adds from the institutions.
powerwalker - my apologies for misspelling your name in a previous message.
Thanks powereslker
Biogen has access to A2-73 for appx. 6 months now. At what point, do we assume they are no longer interested? I don't think we will see a PR to that effect so what is the timeframe? 9 months? One year? Without any news of a continuing/expanding role with Biogen at some point we need to assume they are no longer interested. Curious what some of you think.
I think we will bounce off of 5.65 two or three times tomorrow be fore we head to 6. I think we close above 6 tomorrow. Next week should be a nice run too!
Will we see a block trade right at the close today?
Last 4 days we held the 20day MA. I think once we hit the 10day MA (currently at 5.63) will be the day we see s nice pop of $1 or more.
You can't tell me that we are not under strong accumulation by the tutes. These block trades as markets open and just at the close are classic moves by tutes. We may be weeks away from block buster news and in the meantime that are filling their baskets. When we see next quarters, additions, don't be surprised on who shows up on the list
Perhaps, next bit of news will cause a halt to trading due to severe imbalance. Forget about $1 moves, we may see a double digit move or three.
This is starting to get exciting with only 4 trading days left before we enter the month of WOW!!!
I wonder if the 21st century cures act is coming into play.
The time to add is before 10:30 tomorrow (assuming no 8:00 news).