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>> Ready-or-Not, the next financial crisis is approaching
The most important task for Fed is how to wind down the QE smoothly. however, this task is beyond FED can do. If the QE Exit Strategy can not be executed properly, in worse case, FED will be forced to initiate a new round of QE–alike drugs passively.
The worldwide competition is so intense there is not much time left before Dollar meet a series of bitter challenges. Indeed, the “Da Power” works “very hard” recently. Unfortunately, self crowned praise is a phantom , and 'goofing around' doesn’t heal the wound inside the body.
Yuan’s growing popularity is merely a metaphor that EURO is the last Straw that broke the camel's back. reference: Geo-Economic: USD
China starts direct Yuan/euro trade in FX market
BEIJING Mon Sep 29, 2014 7:17am EDT
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/09/29/us-china-economy-pboc-idUSKCN0HO10H20140929
Yuan, euro to trade directly from today
Source: AFP | September 30, 2014, Tuesday
http://www.shanghaidaily.com/business/finance/Yuan-euro-to-trade-directly-from-today/shdaily.shtml
The European Union was China's biggest trading partner in 2013, with $559 billion worth of goods exchanged between the two sides.
“Direct trading brings together the RMB with the world’s second-most actively traded currency and is a significant step in (the) RMB’s globalization,” said Ryan Song, head of markets for China at HSBC, which is acting as a market maker for the new pair.
“The trade and investment ties between China and the European Union, as two of the world’s major economies, can be further strengthened through the greater convenience of direct trading in this pair,” he said in an HSBC statement.
Geo-Economic: Moscow’s ‘Mr. Yuan’
Geo-Economic Series include:
- The great transition that reshape the world orders
- Insight China - outline the competing status in the world economy
- Miscellaneous Geo-Economic events
Moscow’s ‘Mr. Yuan’ Builds China Link as Putin Tilts East
By Evgenia Pismennaya Sep 24, 2014 7:06 AM PT
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-23/moscow-s-mr-yuan-builds-china-link-as-putin-tilts-east.html
“Every fourth player on the currency market is working with yuan,” Marich said. “It’s not just the big Chinese banks or Russian banks and brokerages like Sberbank and Otkritie, but also international banks like Raiffeisen and HSBC and regional players such as Bank Primorye or Asian-Pacific Bank.”
“So far, everyone thinks this is just a little plaster falling off the dollar wall. But the day may come when the whole thing collapses.”
Geo-Economic: Insight-China-(6) China Generation IV nuclear reactor
Geo-Economic Series include:
- The great transition that reshape the world orders
- Insight China - outline the competing status in the world economy
- Miscellaneous hot Geo-Economic events
Geo-Economic: Insight China (6) China Generation IV nuclear reactor
HTR-PM - High Temperature Reactor – Pebble Module,
Use Helium as heat exchanger.
HTR-PM Fuel Ball structure - uranium dioxide (UO2)
Fuel Ball
HTR-PM Reactor
prototype plant
7 Jan 2013: China started on a three billion-Yuan (about 476 million US dollars) HTR-PM demonstration project, which will form part of what could become China’s largest nuclear facility,.
HTR-PM – Nuclear-heated gas producing superheated steam
Rod Adams • June 27, 2014
http://atomicinsights.com/nuclear-reactors/pebble-bed-reactors/
The first HTR-PM (High Temperature Reactor – Pebble Module), one of the more intriguing nuclear plant designs, is currently under construction on the coast of the Shidao Bay near Weihai, China.
This system uses evolutionary engineering design principles that give it a high probability of success, assuming that the developers and financial supporters maintain their steady progress. Considering the fact that the plant is a logical follow-on to a successful prototype that has been operating since 2000 and that it is being developed by long-term thinking Chinese engineering and constructors there does not appear to be much development risk.
For the demonstration plant, two reactor modules, each producing 250 MWth in a large, low power-density pebble bed reactor produce high temperature gas that enters the reactor at 250 C and leaves the reactor at 750 C. That hot gas (helium in the case of the HTR-PM) is moved by a circulator (the gas equivalent of a pump) into a steam generator that has feed water coming in and steam going out. The steam conditions are 565 C and 13.2 MPa. The output of the two steam generators is combined to drive a single 210 MWe steam turbine.
Technical Meeting on the Safety of High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactors in the Light of the Fukushima Daiichi Accident
http://www.iaea.org/NuclearPower/Downloadable/Meetings/2014/2014-04-08-04-11-TM-NPTDS/2_Li01.pdf
Under construction
Landscope
http://www.guancha.cn/Science/2014_09_17_267967.shtml
http://www.guancha.cn/Industry/2014_08_20_258676_2.shtml
Intel investing $1.5 billion in two Chinese chip firms
http://www.pcworld.com/article/2688272/intel-investing-15-billion-in-two-chinese-chip-firms.html
http://online.wsj.com/articles/intel-invests-1-5-billion-for-stake-in-chinese-chip-makers-1411707350
The Santa Clara, Calif.-chip maker said it would buy about 20% of China's Tsinghua Unigroup Ltd., a state-owned firm that owns China's second- and third-largest chip designers, Spreadtrum Communications and RDA Microelectronics.
Comments:
Chinese media: here comes the third largest mobile/cell phone chip designer. follows Qualcomm (USA), and MediaTek Inc. (Taiwan)
09/26/14 SPX/DJI check points
Check points
[A] SPX
short term bear gauge: 1992.24-1982.21 (0.236/0.3236 : 1904.78 : 2019.26 = ATH)
short term critical support: 1936.38-1938.32, (1938.85, wave 1.500)
http://www.chartupload.com/images/74581385860609256001.jpg
review
(1) 1994.08-2019.19 is the pivotal zone to see middle term high target 2047.41-2069.93
http://www.chartupload.com/images/61360258892975648112.jpg
(2) Index breached 2019.15 and reversed , SPX marked ATH 2019.26 on 09/19
[B] DJI
short term critical support 16720 (16710-16770)
review
(1) 17365-17499 is the pivotal zone to see middle term high target above 18000
http://www.chartupload.com/images/35572302753628157028.jpg
(2) The first attempt on 17365 failed. DJI marked ATH 17350.64 on 09/19
ahimsak . . . . . . .
I sill hold a few long positions ( ADM ... etc, these stocks don't follow the general market). ... i am waiting for a 'lower-high' ( illustration chart ) to buy inverse ETF.
09/25/14 SPX
Friday, 09/19/14 01:13:57 PM
09/19/14 SPX Getting closer .....
We are getting closer to see the beginning of the BIG flush that may last 6/7 months, it is from a minimum 6 Trading Day away, 23 TD, to maximum 77 TD. In a realistic way, it is from any time now.
you take this Bear Viagra®, and wait for the ‘signal’.
No Jinx please.
Monday, 09/22/14 03:25:48 PM
We got an intraday based ATH 1919.26 on 09/19, one day late than the projected date 09/18 (center, +/-).
It is still too early to draw a decisive conclusion.
The low on 08/07 (1904.78), the high on 09/19 (1919.26), and a coming low will provide 3 points for a better estimating the trajectory.
Typo 1919.26 ->2019.26, too late to edit, sorry
09/22/14 SPX cycle review
We got an intraday based ATH 1919.26 on 09/19, one day late than the projected date 09/18 (center, +/-).
It is still too early to draw a decisive conclusion.
The low on 08/07 (1904.78), the high on 09/19 (1919.26), and a coming low will provide 3 points for a better estimating the trajectory. If the coming low is lower than 1904.78 that would be good news for bears.
Saturday, 09/06/14 10:49:36 PM
09/06/14 SPX Cycles
The actions in the next few weeks (center 09/18 +/-, see chart) will corroborate for a major decline to take hold.
To be elaborated.
08/01/14
I came out two dates: 08/22 +/- & 09/18 +/- , don't know which one will dominate, it could be a nested zone. (to be elaborated when transpires)
08/05/14
A local Low in between 08/01-08/12 (EDIT: transpired on 08/07, intraday low 1904.78)
09/22/14 SPX
intraday low 1992.11 – in progress
short term bear gauge:
1992.24-1982.21, floating with ATH,
(0.236/0.3236 : 1904.78 : 2019.26 = ATH)
(1) 1994-2019 is the pivotal zone to see middle term high target 2047.41-2069.93
(2) The first attempt on 2019 failed.
(3) We are getting closer to see the beginning of the BIG (downward) flush that may last 6/7 months. wait for the ‘signal’.
(4) Fibonacci relationships: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_wave_principle
R. N. Elliott's analysis of the mathematical properties of waves and patterns eventually led him to conclude that "The Fibonacci Summation Series is the basis of The Wave Principle".
McHugh: HIGH ALERT!!!
Regardless the projection will transpire or not.
I did my own homework on 09/19, McHugh, He published the following Alert in weekend (09/20) publicly
HIGH ALERT!!! The Stock Market is in a Dangerous Place as of September 19th, 2014.
Read Our Weekend U.S. Market Report for the Details!
HIGH ALERT!!! The stock market sits at a very precarious place this weekend. There are important and rare technical indicators that are contemporaneously telling us that a major stock market top is close at hand and a powerful and damaging stock market decline is not far from starting. Let's examine the evidence this weekend that a stock market plunge is about to start.
Use the following link
https://www.technicalindicatorindex.com/
and click on "Weekend Report", fill in your E-mail, You get 25 pages report in pdf, it is free.
GDL: we have shared the same perception
>> I thought you stated you are not bullish or bearish
>> yet you project such extreme positions.
>> Looks to me like you expect a doom scenario any day now.
The post “Geo-Economic: USD” made two quotes, to balance the views
I also made quote:
Oliver Stone: “ ... Stay open. Things don’t always turn out the way you think they’re going to turn out.”.
In overall, that post gives a well balanced view.
regarding the trading/investing, i said:
dindindon 02/14/14 02:51:00 PM
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=97325446
i own a set of stocks/corp. bonds, my investing theme is a variant of this style
The SPX wave count suggests the market is currently in the last uptrend of wave ‘3’. The recent under performance of the R2K and the NYAD suggest this uptrend is indeed a 5 (with a circle, Investor HUB does not support that font) wave.
Should this count work out to be the market’s count, then wave ‘4’ would begin when this uptrend ends.
wave ‘2’ lasted about five months, and the market lost 22% of its value. wave ‘4’ should be a similar 3-5 month decline, while the market loses about 15%-20% of its value.
The key level to watch is SPX 1905 (EDIT 1904.78) . Should the market decline to this level at any time in the near future wave 4 is underway.
chart:
Anthony Caldaro September 20, 2014
http://caldaro.wordpress.com/2014/09/20/weekend-update-466/
The SPX count suggests the market is currently in Intermediate wave v of Major 5. The last uptrend of Primary III. The recent under performance of the R2K and the NYAD suggest this uptrend is indeed a fifth wave. Should this count work out to be the market’s count, then Primary IV would begin when this uptrend ends. Primary II lasted about five months, and the market lost 22% of its value. Primary IV should be a similar 3-5 month decline, while the market loses about 15%-20% of its value. The key level to watch is SPX 1905. Should the market decline to this level at any time in the near future Primary IV is underway.
gdl Saturday, 05/24/14 12:22:59 PM
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=102443119
Not sure how the weekly moves play out but we should hit 1920-40 on SPX soon. If so I believe odds favor a decent drop till October. The big question in my mind is how big of a drop. In order to see yet another leg up in this bull cycle we have to come down a good ways (a shakeout). That suggests a drop to a possible low at major support, 1550 range on SPX. If this happens it would take emotional strength to bet the next leg up. My final target is SPX at 2020 or so.
Most likely we do not test the 1550 range, but a 10 percent drop is certainly possible.
dindindon Sturday, May 24, 2014 1:57:15 PM
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=102444422
nice summary, and we have shared the same perception.
imho, 1931.41 is the pivot/inflection point to gauge whether SPX will enter the zone 1970-2050.
dindindon 02/08/14 12:24:01 PM
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=96999787
IMHO, the Long term weekly chart (chart 4) hints a possible recurring rhythm. In overall, it is still very bullish. As long as bull can hold the critical support zone 1450-1620 +/- . the bull market (since 2009) is firmly intact.
chart 4
Geo-Economic: USD
Fed is taking the advantage of Dollar’s Hegemony (note 1) so that they can print out of thin air.
In order to maintain Dollar’s Hegemony that requires:
(1) economic supremacy to provide liquid market transactions
(2) military supremacy as a backup
And/or,
To ‘mess’ around our neighbors (note 2) so that USD is the ‘best” among the ‘inferiors’. In this tactic, “We” cannot afford if our neighbors ‘unite’ together. Thus what this Geo-economic cartoon implies.
Therefore, The recent Geopolitics unset triggers a 'whopping' 5% appreciation in USD
However, as such preemptive “tactic“ cannot prevent from losing the trade/technology dominance in the worldwide market, and it cannot enforce those ‘non-obedient’ players such as China, Russia, Iran, Brazil, Venezuela .. etc .. to follow “our script”. In the long run, not every developed Europe nations want to be one of the “vassals” of “Us” ..............
Then?
(1) “.... It touches on one of the fundamental factors that is validating the technical and cyclical case ... ...… The events in Russia & the Ukraine are poised to hurt Europe first … and then the Dollar to collapse after that!”
full text & chart will be available via this link: http://www.insiidetrack.com/40-Year%20Cycle.html
(2) European Flight Capital to Accelerate. What to Do …
Larry Edelson | Wednesday, September 10, 2014 at 7:30 am
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/european-flight-capital-accelerate-65364#.VBG9VJRdXTo
The U.S. dollar, despite all its problems, will continue to appreciate, ultimately ushering in severe stagflation, or worse, deflation in this country.
Conclusion:
"The world is changing rapidly. We are witnessing colossal geopolitical, technological and structural shifts. A single-polar world model has failed. Today, it's obvious to everyone, even to those who continue using their habitual coordinate system, trying to maintain monopoly, dictate their rules of the game in politics, trade and finances and impose cultural and behavioral standards," (Note 3)
Eventually, an across Asia-Europe Continent Trade De Facto Alliance include Scandinavians, Baltic, France, Germany, Balkans , Mediterranean , North Africa, Eurasian, central Asia, Iran, Russia, South Asia (ASEAN), India, China .. etc all link together by interconnected train routes to form a largest market in the human history.(Note 5) US remains an ocean power in North America (Note 4,6)
Disclaimer:
Oliver Stone: “All these things can change, so we don’t know. And when you think an empire is going to control everything and is going to go a certain way that’s exactly the moment when it doesn’t go that way. ..... it might be the curve of that ball that no one foresaw. You know? Stay open. Things don’t always turn out the way you think they’re going to turn out.”
( http://collider.com/oliver-stone-untold-history-of-the-united-states-jfk-interview/#wOB30XsfgOa4EWsX.99 )
Note 1
Dollar hegemony
(a) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dollar_hegemony
The term describes a geopolitical phenomenon of the 20th century in which the U.S. dollar, a fiat currency, became the primary reserve currency internationally.
(b) Dollar Hegemony
By Henry C K Liu http://henryckliu.com/page2.html
Originally published as [US Dollar Hegemony has to go] in AToL on April 11. 2002
Note 2
Chess in a Minefield: The Global Implications of the Ukraine Conflict
By Uwe Klußmann
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/the-geopolitical-implications-of-conflict-in-ukraine-a-954724.html
Brzezinski would love to have put Moscow in checkmate. In his book "The Grand Chessboard," he writes that without Ukraine, Russia "would become predominantly an Asian imperial state" at risk of being drawn into conflicts in Central Asia. But if Moscow were able to gain control of Ukraine and its resources, Brzezinski wrote, the Russian Federation would be a "powerful imperial state." He saw danger in a potential "German-Russian collusion" and in the possibility of an agreement between Europe and Russia with the goal of pushing America out of the region.
Essentially, Brzezinski's point of view is one that guides American strategy to this day: The US wants to keep Russia as far away as possible. If the Europeans get involved in Ukraine and harm their relations with Moscow, that is fine with Washington.
Indeed, US Deputy Foreign Minister Victoria Nuland's infamous "Fxxk the EU" gaffe, can hardly be seen as a mistake. Rather it is a logical, if somewhat vulgar, expression of America's geopolitical stance.
Note 3
Failure of single-polar world order obvious to everyone
Vladimir Putin - 23 May 2014, 16:06
International Economic Forum in St. Petersburg.
http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/russia/2014/russia-140523-vor01.htm
Note 4
One Man's View of the World
by Lee Kuan Yew, Singapore's former Prime Minister
http://www.amazon.com/One-Mans-View-World-Kuan/dp/9814342564/ref=sr_1_5/175-9434109-9847720?ie=UTF8&qid=1409086762&sr=8-5&keywords=Lee+Kuan+Yew
He describes an America that will have to share its pre-eminence despite its never-say-die dynamism
Note 5
Trans-Asian Railway http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trans-Asian_Railway
The Trans-Asian Railway (TAR) is a project to create an integrated freight railway network across Europe and Asia. The TAR is a project of the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP).
Eurasian Land Bridge
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurasian_Land_Bridge
China’s Land Bridge to Europe – The China-Turkey High Speed Railway
https://solari.com/blog/china%E2%80%99s-land-bridge-to-europe-the-china-turkey-high-speed-railway/
Note 6
Book Review: 'World Order' by Henry Kissinger
The idea that history is tragic does not come naturally to Americans.
By JAMES TRAUB
Sept. 5, 2014 5:32 p.m. ET
http://online.wsj.com/articles/book-review-world-order-by-henry-kissinger-1409952751
Recent years have not been kind to those who believe in America's missionary role abroad.
The story begins with France's Cardinal Richelieu (1585-1642), who articulated a doctrine that "the state was an abstract and permanent entity existing in its own right," holding interests peculiar to itself—raison d'état. When the religious wars of the mid-17th century exhausted all parties, the diplomats who gathered in the northwest German province of Westphalia in the mid-1640s agreed that they would not seek to impose their own religious principles upon one another. States would no longer interfere with the domestic order of other states. "The Westphalian concept took multiplicity as its starting point," Mr. Kissinger writes, and thus incorporated "multiple societies" into "a common search for order."
Westphalia may well be an antiquated metaphor for world order at a time when America is menaced not only by classically aggrandizing states like Russia but also by nonstate actors like al Qaeda and ISIS. Nevertheless, given the terrible intractability of world affairs, the precept of diplomacy as a permanent endeavor for contingent aims feels almost inspiring. Secretary of State John Kerry, barely staving off exhaustion as he sprints from crisis to crisis in pursuit of what look like unattainable goals, could scarcely find a worthier motto.
complicated feelings on Alibaba bebut
Bearman Today, 09:09 AM
http://indexcalls.com/index.php?showtopic=3761&view=findpost&p=775915
Welcome BABA sheep.
09/19/14 SPX Getting closer .....
We are getting closer to see the beginning of the BIG flush that may last 6/7 months, it is from a minimum 6 Trading Day away, 23 TD, to maximum 77 TD. In a realistic way, it is from any time now.
I am a technician, neither bullish nor bearish, no fetish/cult on 'advance/Thick' TA. When it transpires, I will explain why. (hate to say those useless wordy IF-Then-Else, Else IF ..,)
Don't count my words,
you take this Bear Viagra®, and wait for the ‘signal’.
No Jinx please.
Gold Market Update Clive Maund September 18, 2014
Gold Market Update Clive Maund September 18, 2014
http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/gold-market-update-179
09/19/14 SPX breaching the pivotal point
in-progress:
intraday high 2019.26, projection 2019.19
consequence:
pivotal zone 1994-2019 to see the possibility of jumping to 2047.41
2019.19:
Use 1.786 to plug into the simple equation in chart
http://www.chartupload.com/images/87752122720963372823.jpg
1.786 is a relative large extension before the control of ‘local frame’ hand over the “right of way” to ‘large frame’. Let’s see.
Archive:
08/25/14 12:24:20 AM
short term high target zone: 1994.08-2019.19
09/06/14 04:09:13 PM
Index pokes into the pivotal /target zone 1994-2019 with the possibility of jumping to 2047.41.
09/18/14 01:11:16 PM
1994-2019 remains the pivotal zone to see middle term high target 2047.41-2069.93. If you want one more check point for better assessment, that point would be 2025.42 = [0.786 : ( 2047.41 : 1944.65)].
>> The FED to be Audited
The “Road Side” news reported that Chinese bought “countless” short term bond when Fed deployed their 'Operation Twist', ushes in the coming Fed’s book reconciliation. Fed balance sheet "seems" don’t look good, therefore, the Print Machine™ is due for a “scheduled maintance”.
chart source: http://www.guancha.cn/economy/2014_09_18_268378.shtml
09/05, 09/18 SPX Misc.
Miscellaneous:
Index marked an intraday low 1978.48 on 09/15, just 1.84 points higher than the project support zone 1986.06-1976.74. The noteworthy ratio is 0.3236 (=1.618/5), 1976.74 = [0.3236 : (1904.78 : 2011.17)]. the most popular one around the cyber world is 1970.53 (0.382), Now you know why 1970.53 failed to transpire (at least up to the moment)
1994-2019 remains the pivotal zone to see middle term high target 2047.41-2069.93 (see table in chart 2). If you want one more check point for better assessment for assaulting high target zone, that point would be 2025.42 = [0.786 : ( 2047.41 : 1944.65)].
In this thread, I posted the table (in chart 2) on 02/08. Without using those wave counts, simply applies the Fibonacci summation series, you get 2069.93 (popular number 2070) and 2047.41 (popular number 2050).
In essence:
short term bear gauge:
1986.06-1976.74, floating with ATH,
(0.236/0.3236 : 1904.78 : 2011.17)
intraday bullish gauge:
2002.47
1970.53 = [ 0.382 : (2011.17 : 1904.78) ]
2002.47 = [ 0.786 : (1970.53 : 2011.17) ]
intraday resistance:
2012.25-2013.31 (chart 1,2)
refer to the following bullish/bearish chart, there is no way to know 1370.55 “shall” be wave ‘A’ (bearish series, A B C) or Wave ‘1’ (bullish series, 1 2 3 4 5), According to the Fibonacci summation series, use pure numerical calculations, both bullish & Bearish wave count can reach 2213 or even much higher.
Bullish count http://www.chartupload.com/images/97281752864488374713.jpg
Bearish count http://www.chartupload.com/images/96712978190602006436.jpg
Cycle:
Eric Hadik’s Cycle Progression™
Web Home: http://www.insiidetrack.com/index.htm
This Topic: http://www.insiidetrack.com/Cycle_Progression.htm
an excerpt:
The problem that most cycle analysts and cycle programs have is that they are constantly searching ONLY the lows or ONLY the highs for a consistent cycle. The futility of this exercise forces most novice “cyclists” to give up in desperation. Cycles are a dynamic entity -- they keep progressing and changing (direction--not amplitude). This disguise is what throws most cycle observers off track and forces most technicians to conclude that cycles are ambiguous, inconsistent and worthless.
http://www.insiidetrack.com/images/HCPblkLg.jpg
(An extensive discussion on cycles as well as additional details, charts, & diagrams can be found in Eric Hadik’s Tech Tip™ Reference Library.)
>>(getmenews) .. "from a triple top perspective"
getmenews
imho, Right now the Trend is up, wait for at least some basic bearish signal showing up, for example: 20 EMA crosses below 50 EMA, this is somewhat a trade off from risk management. Yes, "Who knows", I always think market is somewhat 'agnostic', and avoid deeply entrenched in "those-looks-fancy-theories" cult. Missing a "small" section is not as "bad" as "Under Investing" in this perhaps once a life time "bull" market,
Federal Reserve FOMC statement
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20140917a.htm
Release Date: September 17, 2014
For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in July suggests that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace. On balance, labor market conditions improved somewhat further; however, the unemployment rate is little changed and a range of labor market indicators suggests that there remains significant underutilization of labor resources. Household spending appears to be rising moderately and business fixed investment is advancing, while the recovery in the housing sector remains slow. Fiscal policy is restraining economic growth, although the extent of restraint is diminishing. Inflation has been running below the Committee's longer-run objective. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, with labor market indicators and inflation moving toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee sees the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced and judges that the likelihood of inflation running persistently below 2 percent has diminished somewhat since early this year.
The Committee currently judges that there is sufficient underlying strength in the broader economy to support ongoing improvement in labor market conditions. In light of the cumulative progress toward maximum employment and the improvement in the outlook for labor market conditions since the inception of the current asset purchase program, the Committee decided to make a further measured reduction in the pace of its asset purchases. Beginning in October, the Committee will add to its holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $5 billion per month rather than $10 billion per month, and will add to its holdings of longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $10 billion per month rather than $15 billion per month. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee's sizable and still-increasing holdings of longer-term securities should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative, which in turn should promote a stronger economic recovery and help to ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with the Committee's dual mandate.
The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months and will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability. If incoming information broadly supports the Committee's expectation of ongoing improvement in labor market conditions and inflation moving back toward its longer-run objective, the Committee will end its current program of asset purchases at its next meeting. However, asset purchases are not on a preset course, and the Committee's decisions about their pace will remain contingent on the Committee's outlook for the labor market and inflation as well as its assessment of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases.
To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy remains appropriate. In determining how long to maintain the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. The Committee continues to anticipate, based on its assessment of these factors, that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and provided that longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored.
When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Stanley Fischer; Narayana Kocherlakota; Loretta J. Mester; Jerome H. Powell; and Daniel K. Tarullo. Voting against the action were Richard W. Fisher and Charles I. Plosser. President Fisher believed that the continued strengthening of the real economy, improved outlook for labor utilization and for general price stability, and continued signs of financial market excess, will likely warrant an earlier reduction in monetary accommodation than is suggested by the Committee's stated forward guidance. President Plosser objected to the guidance indicating that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for "a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends," because such language is time dependent and does not reflect the considerable economic progress that has been made toward the Committee's goals.
>> Rotor: Gold
FWIW
One widely followed cycle technician suggested a weekly close above $1241 (Gold Futures - Dec 14 (GCZ4)) to see a bounce in the second week of October) which is in line with the short term view given by Larry Edelson
Special Update: Precious Metals Bear Market is Back …
Larry Edelson | Tuesday, September 16, 2014 at 5:00 pm
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/special-update-precious-metals-bear-market-back-65744#.VBmu1pTn8W1
Let me address what are probably your top two questions right now: How low can gold and silver go and how long will their renewed bear markets last?
My answers:
1. From a technical perspective, it would not be unusual for gold and silver to drop back to near the origins of their previous major breakout points.
Based on the continuous nearest futures, that would put the ultimate lows in target ranges of roughly $920 to $970 in gold, and, worst case, $12.50 for silver.
2. Timing-wise, my cyclic work is now showing two targets for the final lows.
The first comes in January/February 2015 and the second in June. Odds favor the January period.
Now, what to do …
FIRST, and foremost, do not expect the precious metals to immediately collapse.
They are deeply oversold and important short-term support levels are near at hand. Put another way, we are likely to first see a sharp bounce, before the downtrend resumes.
That bounce could bring gold back up to the $1,280 level, even the $1,300 level. Silver could bounce to the $20 area.
Regardless of any bounce …
SECOND …
A. Now is not the time to buy any additional precious metals, in any form.
B. Now is also not the time to add any more miners.
And …
THIRD, for any existing precious metals holdings you have, sit tight. But use any upcoming bounce to hedge those holdings, via an inverse ETF such as the PowerShares DB Gold Short ETN (DGZ).
Best wishes,
Larry
>>getmenews: W.D. Gann's Financial Time Table
getmenews:
I am not qualified for reviewing W.D. Gann's work.
Here is the adjusted table, see quote.
That 18.6 year cycle also ties with
Benner/Fibonacci Cycle http://www.davidmcminn.com/pages/brenfib.htm
and
lunar standstill cycle http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lunar_standstill
Thursday, March 15, 2012
W.D. Gann's Financial Time Table - extended & adjusted
http://time-price-research-astrofin.blogspot.com/2012/03/wd-ganns-financial-time-table-extended.html
(W.D. Gann's original chart)
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-nHD8xPVwyrM/T75462HfDFI/AAAAAAAAF0s/UFYtFGHM8FU/s1600/GannFinancialTable.gif
Reportedly W.D. Gann constructed his legendary Financial Time Table in 1909 without an ephemeris. To mimic the Lunar Declination Cycle he simply alternated a sequence of +19, +18, +19, +18 etc.-years across the top to get an average length of 18.6-years. However, he finally noted that an adjustment would finally be due for Dec 25th, 1989. The above table adjusted the pattern to the ephemeris.
09/16/14 SPX
intraday high 2002.28 - in progress
projection 2002.47, see chart 1 & (1)
after index explored the support zone 1986.06-1976.74 (actual 1978.48),
Again, index pokes into pivotal/target zone 1994-2019, (chart 2) with a short term resistance at 2002.47 (critical )
archives:
(1) short term bullish gauge 2002.47 [EDIT: critical]
1970.53 = [ 0.382 : (2011.17 : 1904.78) ]
2002.47 = [ 0.786 : (1970.53 : 2011.17) ]
(2) short term bear gauge (support zone)
1986.06-1976.74 = [0.236-0.3236 : (1904.78 : 2011.17) ]
chart: http://www.chartupload.com/images/22299189060977201287.jpg
(3) 08/30/14 Index pokes into the pivotal/target zone 1994-2019
Index pokes into the pivotal /target zone 1994-2019 with the possibility of rampping to 2047.41.
reference:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=106275633
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=106008250
chart 1
chart 2
getmenews: an impressive work!
1829 is the pivot (1.618 1422.38-1074.77, 1266.74)
getmenews Friday, 08/01/14 10:54:47 AM
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=104884547
>> getmenews: wave 4 considerations?
>> I am starting my work for the next targets.
I guess you are using the variant of Pentagonal Time Cycle Theory, an erudite one.
When the pullback from ATH/17161.55 is "sufficient large”, the bullish 5 wave series can be interpreted as a bearish A-B-C series, i.e. '1' be replaced by 'A' ,,, etc. Only time will time, no way to know in advance; In this sense, the wave theory at this juncture provides not much predictive value. Right now, The Trend is UP.
The simple Fibonacci retracement/extension provides a quick guide.
short term frame:
09/04 17161.55 (High), 08/07 16333.78
0.236 16966 (09/12 16937.67) <----- suspicious
0.382 16845
middle term frame:
09/04 17161.55 (High), 02/05 15430.69 (Low)
0.236 16753.07
0.382 16500.36
09/16/14 GLNG - Golar-LNG-Ltd, CHL China-Mobile-Limited
GLNG - Six months later (03/18-09/16) +75%
03/18 - GLNG - Golar LNG Ltd
06/16 - moves up
06/18 - on parabolic move
06/30 - 03/18-06/30 +49.5% (excludes DIV, pay on 07/02 $0.45)
CHL 02/09-09/16 +35%
02/09 China Mobile Limited (CHL) – NYSE
accumulate at ‘proper’ levels for a long term core component
09/15/14 DJI
Monday, 07/21/14 10:26:50 AM link
On 07/17/14, Dow Jones Index DJI marked an all time intraday high 17151.56. The aberration is only 1.31 points from my projection made on 04/01: 16719.24 -16810.54-17150.25.
It is still too soon to say 17150 is a good terminal point.
To explorer higher side, i need to tabulate two more Fibonacci extensions:
( EDIT: ...... skip ..... )
At this moment, let us focus on the possible pullback target,
Clive Maund gold chart gives a clear visual-guide
Clive Maund chart:
http://www.clivemaund.com/charts/gold15year140914.jpg
Gold Market Update
originally published September 15th, 2014
http://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=68
link creditor: gtsourdinis
http://investorshub.advfn.com/Abet-Chichi2-Chichi2-1804/
Martin Armstrong GOLD: US$875 - $910. Ai-ya-yaa!
Poly-Perspective, FYI, FWIW ( Don't beat the messenger )
Martin Armstrong on Gold: Bottoms out at the End of 2015 / Early 2016 at the latest, with a worst case scenario of US$650 with 'ideal' somewhere between US$875 - $910.
Published on Sep 14, 2014
09/15/14 SPX
(1) Support & Resistance
More details: 09/05/14 SPX Misc. link
short term bullish gauge 2002.47
1970.53 = [ 0.382 : (2011.17 : 1904.78) ]
2002.47 = [ 0.786 : (1970.53 : 2011.17) ]
short term bear gauge
1986.06-1976.74 = [0.236-0.3236 : (1904.78 : 2011.17) ]
short term low targets:
1970.53 [0.382 : (1904.78 : 2011.17) ]
1957.98 0.500
1945.42 0.618 (1946.68 - 1947.48, a Fib Cluster)
(2) Wave & Cycle
- Index to close below 1904.78 is the minimal requirement for wave 3’s termination.
- very likely the in-progressing pullback is a result of the 156 Trading Day cycle (an observed 32 calendar week cycle, center 09/18 +/-)
When the pullback from ATH (2011.17) is 'sufficient deep' (below 1560-1620), the bullish 5 wave series can be interpreted as a bearish W-X-Y (Or A-B-C) series, i.e. wave 1 be replaced by wave W (or wave A) ,,, etc. The final outcome always comes after the fact. That means “only time will tell’.
The wave count assignment for March/09 Low at 666.79 in the overall wave structure (1998-2014) is unsettling, to be observed.
Fonts in italic are used-in Quotes
(1) Anthony Caldaro . 09/13, 2014
http://caldaro.wordpress.com/2014/09/13/weekend-update-465/
Currently we think the probabilities of Primary III ending with this uptrend, or extending into next year, are equal.
(EDIT: Primary I from 666.79 up to 1370.58, Primary II from 1370.58 down to 1074.77)
Currently the market remains in between the SPX 2011 uptrend high and the 1980 recent low, the Medium term support remains at the 1973 and 1956 pivots, with resistance at the 2019 and 2070 pivots.
(2) WaveTrack 12th September 2014
http://www.wavetrack.com/
Upside targets remain towards 2044.04-2048.25
(3) $SPX Hurst Coming 40 Week Low
July 30, 2014 by SilentOne. link
The coming 40 week low should finish by mid-September and the decline into this low can start any time, - .... While I had been looking for an intermediate top this year, it doesn’t look like it will come until very late in the year.
while the last two 40 week cycles have been 32 weeks exactly. The coming 40 week low should finish by mid September
The 9 year FLD has an outstanding target of roughly 2150 on the $SPX. Given how bullish these markets have been and how right translated this 9 year cycle is presenting itself, there can be little doubt that this target will be achieved.
(4) 156 Trading Day cycle (observed cycle), Due 09/18 +/-
cycle chart http://www.chartupload.com/images/44473658094155286587.jpg
(5) Wave count, assignment based on the 'best fit' Fib points
>> bluechip: For regionals/insurance
>> I have on my list; Are there any others I should consider?
FYI
Old Republic International Corporation (ORI) - NYSE
Annual Dividend Yield 4.89%
Market Capitalization (Mid Cap) $3.9B
Old Republic Declares Regular Third Quarter Cash Dividend Of 18.25 Cents Per Share
10:31 AM ET, 08/21/2014 - PR Newswire
CHICAGO, Aug. 21, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- The Board of Directors of Old Republic International Corporation yesterday declared a quarterly cash dividend on the common stock of 18.25 cents per share.
This latest dividend increase marks the 33rd consecutive year that Old Republic has boosted its cash dividend rate, and 2014 becomes the 73rd year of uninterrupted cash dividend payments.
Old Republic International Corporation (Old Republic) is a holding company engaged in the single business of insurance underwriting. It conducts its operations through a number of regulated insurance company subsidiaries organized into three segments
09/11/14 SPX moves into sideway
in progress:
- Intraday low 1985.93
synopsis:
re-test the support zone 1986.06-1976.74 and moves into sideway.
Resistance:
1995.65, 2002.47
09/06/14 04:09:13 PM
short term bear gauge: 1986.06-1976.74 (EDIT: support zone)
chart 1
chart 2
daily chart: http://www.chartupload.com/images/22299189060977201287.jpg
>> D, since when this became a day trading board?
Investing/Trading is a never ending story, each participant runs on a twisted route & write his/her own chapters.
This is a nice harmonious board, keep watching.
Geo-Economic - DOs & DON'Ts
Alliance -
The main goal of Rice’s visit, as Zach noted previously, was to lay the groundwork for President Obama’s November visit to China.
By Shannon Tiezzi September 10, 2014
http://thediplomat.com/2014/09/nsa-susan-rice-in-china-rethinking-new-type-great-power-relations/
phot source: http://www.guancha.cn/america/2014_09_09_265379.shtml
New oil contract