Saturday, February 08, 2014 12:24:01 PM
02/08/2014 . . . . . . . .
This post together with prior posts present a simple way to obtain a rough pictorial picture. it is not intend to nail precise pivots. IMHO. Projection is only a small step for gaining profit from the market and usually it is the lesser important one.
Jesse Livermore quote : speculators never argue with the tape. Markets are never wrong, but opinions often are.
I proposed the following long term chart on September 30, 2012 (chart 1) . At that time I believed 1481.56 was an important inflection point , the peak could be 1829.17 (see chart & wave table), and then a sizable retracement will take place.
The purple and green rectangular box (in the lower right side of the chart 1, not to the scale) are the possible scenarios after the peaking process.
In chart 3, the blue, red, and orange colored segments represent the most obvious wave relationship among the S&P, NDX, DJI, and RUT. Those gobbledygook E-waver count had been ignored internationally because the existing structure is very simple & straightforward.
chart 1
chart 1 time stamp link:
http://forexrainbow.com/viewer.php?file=96164382991989141043.jpg
chart 2 The significance of 1481.56
chart 3 Wave set
wave table:
Index plotted an intraday high 1850.84 on Jan 15. From the wave table, pick the two green color numbers 1847.47 and 1854.12, the mean is 1850.80. In the same table, You also can find some “popular” numbers such as 1880, 1860, 1944, 2213 .. etc, These are just the wave Fibonacci extensions, not that cryptic.
The 'worst' case can be found in the Retracement table, frame 7, 0.618 @1117.81 (highlighted in purple color) which is closely matched with what Tom Demark projected.
Retracement table http://forexrainbow.com/images/28250003805511906708.jpg
TOM DEMARK: What we're seeing right now, if the market does unravel, I think we'll have a correction of 40% off the high, which would put us at about 1100 (on the S&P 500 index)
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/tom-demark-fears-market-crash-2014-2#ixzz2sbcPcKpx
IMHO, the Long term weekly chart (chart 4) hints a possible recurring rhythm. In overall, it is still very bullish.
As long as bull can hold the critical support zone 1450-1620 +/- . the bull market (since 2009) is firmly intact.
wave set 1 (666.79->1370,1074.77)
0.764 1612.47
0.786 1627.95
1620 == 1620.21 = (1612.47 + 1627.95)/2
1450 == 1451.23 (see Retracement table, reference frame 4, 0.786, highlighted in light blue color)
chart 4
Here's What 14 Top Wall Street Strategists Are Predicting For The Stock Market In 2014
Steven Perlberg Jan. 2, 2014, 9:05 AM
For 2014, the average call is for the S&P 500 to hit 1,955, with the median prediction at 1,950.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/strategists-2014-sp-500-targets-2014-1#ixzz2sh5hU0AF
In particular, Goldman Sachs
Nov. 21, 2013, 6:19 AM
“David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' top equity strategist, just published his 2014 outlook for stocks. His report also included his lofty prediction for the S&P 500 through 2016. Specifically, Kostin sees the S&P 500 rising 6% to 1,900 by the end of 2014, 17% to 2,100 by the end of 2015, and 23% to 2,200 by the end of 2016.”
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-2014-sp-500-outlook-2013-11
This post together with prior posts present a simple way to obtain a rough pictorial picture. it is not intend to nail precise pivots. IMHO. Projection is only a small step for gaining profit from the market and usually it is the lesser important one.
Jesse Livermore quote : speculators never argue with the tape. Markets are never wrong, but opinions often are.
I proposed the following long term chart on September 30, 2012 (chart 1) . At that time I believed 1481.56 was an important inflection point , the peak could be 1829.17 (see chart & wave table), and then a sizable retracement will take place.
The purple and green rectangular box (in the lower right side of the chart 1, not to the scale) are the possible scenarios after the peaking process.
In chart 3, the blue, red, and orange colored segments represent the most obvious wave relationship among the S&P, NDX, DJI, and RUT. Those gobbledygook E-waver count had been ignored internationally because the existing structure is very simple & straightforward.
chart 1
chart 1 time stamp link:
http://forexrainbow.com/viewer.php?file=96164382991989141043.jpg
chart 2 The significance of 1481.56
chart 3 Wave set
wave table:
Index plotted an intraday high 1850.84 on Jan 15. From the wave table, pick the two green color numbers 1847.47 and 1854.12, the mean is 1850.80. In the same table, You also can find some “popular” numbers such as 1880, 1860, 1944, 2213 .. etc, These are just the wave Fibonacci extensions, not that cryptic.
The 'worst' case can be found in the Retracement table, frame 7, 0.618 @1117.81 (highlighted in purple color) which is closely matched with what Tom Demark projected.
Retracement table http://forexrainbow.com/images/28250003805511906708.jpg
TOM DEMARK: What we're seeing right now, if the market does unravel, I think we'll have a correction of 40% off the high, which would put us at about 1100 (on the S&P 500 index)
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/tom-demark-fears-market-crash-2014-2#ixzz2sbcPcKpx
IMHO, the Long term weekly chart (chart 4) hints a possible recurring rhythm. In overall, it is still very bullish.
As long as bull can hold the critical support zone 1450-1620 +/- . the bull market (since 2009) is firmly intact.
wave set 1 (666.79->1370,1074.77)
0.764 1612.47
0.786 1627.95
1620 == 1620.21 = (1612.47 + 1627.95)/2
1450 == 1451.23 (see Retracement table, reference frame 4, 0.786, highlighted in light blue color)
chart 4
Here's What 14 Top Wall Street Strategists Are Predicting For The Stock Market In 2014
Steven Perlberg Jan. 2, 2014, 9:05 AM
For 2014, the average call is for the S&P 500 to hit 1,955, with the median prediction at 1,950.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/strategists-2014-sp-500-targets-2014-1#ixzz2sh5hU0AF
In particular, Goldman Sachs
Nov. 21, 2013, 6:19 AM
“David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' top equity strategist, just published his 2014 outlook for stocks. His report also included his lofty prediction for the S&P 500 through 2016. Specifically, Kostin sees the S&P 500 rising 6% to 1,900 by the end of 2014, 17% to 2,100 by the end of 2015, and 23% to 2,200 by the end of 2016.”
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-2014-sp-500-outlook-2013-11
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